The U.S. and Israel attack Iran | Peace deal finally on?

Well that's the UK liable under international law. I bet he has done this so Trump will suddenly support the Chagos deal. Heaven forbid he's doing it because Reform want it.
Every man and his dog was coming out to say well done, great statesmanship, hasn’t made the Blair mistake, man of principles…

Silence now.

Might as well have allowed it straight away… now looks weak x2. The decision and the u-turn
 
What I mean is that we had the stuff available to switch to a war footing. Decades of de-industrialization has undone that.

No argument there.

I think we get outproduced by them even if we switch to more low tech systems. Which, to tie this into what’s going on now, makes me very worried if China supplies Iran with drones and missiles and we get stuck over there with a rapidly diminishing stock of air defense weapons.

Maybe I’m too pessimistic about it, but I just don’t see us as being able to keep up with demand in a prolonged intense conflict even with “dumbed down” systems.

Sudpect itd be the other way around. China produce in a highly cenrralised manner, in high density, target rich environments which are relatively easy to disable. The US can produce in small shops,sheds and garages all over the country. Thatd be an absolute nightmare to slow down. Similar story for logistics diversity.


Regardless,i dont evwr really see a conventional hot conflict with china as the adversary. They need each other too muxh.
 
Every man and his dog was coming out to say well done, great statesmanship, hasn’t made the Blair mistake, man of principles…

Silence now.

Might as well have allowed it straight away… now looks weak x2. The decision and the u-turn

Sadly, I haven't found that to be true at all. I hardly saw anyone agreeing with Starmer, more they were criticising him and calling him a traitor and disgrace to the nation. I also didn't hear a single customer at work side with him, all were knocking him for being weak.

I just put GB News on for two minutes as I had a bet with my son that they would be knocking Starmer and surprise, surprise that's exactly what they were doing. They were calling him weak and feckless and comparing him to the strength being shown by Trump. I'm couldn't stomach any more so.i just switched it off.

It's incredibly depressing if only for the fact he was actually showing strength after Trump had disrespected our troops and their contributions in Iraq and Afghanistan. He's slapped us with tariffs and he's continually mocked our way of life.

Starmer (imho) rightly refused Trump access to our bases as the war is illegal and completely without merit. I can guarantee most of the morons condemning Starmer were the ones slamming Blair for being Americas patsy and for involving us in a costly war both in lives and financially, all based on lies.

I thought we would have learned our lesson.

Sadly, it seems we haven't.

Back to the point though, I sincerely think the percentage of Brits backing Starmer for his stance was exceedingly low, especially compared to those attacking him. Polls show 58% were on Starmers side but I can honestly say I didn't see that reflected in the media, on social media or with the general public in my region.
 
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The dangerous moment for US/Israel is what happens when Trump brainfarts. He has no clue what he's doing, if the media headlines turn that is all he will care about. I don't think he has an exit-strategy here. He'll either escalate to indiscriminate destruction until the country can't function at all, or he'll just stop and walk away with no regime change.
 
Hardly surprising though. Spineless amoral shitbags.
Compounded by many/most people in "the west" being ambivalent about Iran at best. A bit like Iraq in many ways. Saddam was a scumbag so .... of course the outcome here may well be as rubbish as Iraq. By then it will be too late to change things with public opinion of course.
 
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I'll take that as an opportunity to let more people know about the suffocating fascism here. He's one instance:

It continually fascinates me how there are so many Indians represented in ultra conservative Western circles. It reminds me a bit of the Muslims in the US who jumped on the republican train for being pro removal of books from libraries and anti LGBTQ, only to then get shit on by the people they align themselves with when they are no longer useful. Someone explain this to me. Is it opportunistic follow the money behavior or do most of those people truly believe what they say?
 


These people are morons.


Larajani has apparently signaled he is willing to talk to Trump (via Oman) to resolve this. The question is whether Trump is actually interested in talking at this point or whether Netanyahu will nudge him to continue fighting until the regime completely collapses.
 
Larajani has apparently signaled he is willing to talk to Trump (via Oman) to resolve this. The question is whether Trump is actually interested in talking at this point or whether Netanyahu will nudge him to continue fighting until the regime completely collapses.

Assuming neither the US nor Israel kills Larijani in the interim.
 
1% and .8% for S&P 500 - that's just normal fluctuation (let's wait and see until the actual markets open). Actually crazy to think that an event like this doesn't have a bigger impact.

Probably down to 1. It was already priced in and the plans to attack Iran was the worst kept secret and 2. Markets being used to crazy shit going on every other weekend with Trump in charge.
Everyone is expecting it to be short-lived and it doesn't really change much for most companies' earnings. If it winds up being more sustained and the oil price remains high after its initial jump, then you might see more of an impact, but the region is ultimately of fairly low importance in terms of global stock markets and economy.
 
Sudpect itd be the other way around. China produce in a highly cenrralised manner, in high density, target rich environments which are relatively easy to disable. The US can produce in small shops,sheds and garages all over the country. Thatd be an absolute nightmare to slow down. Similar story for logistics diversity.


Regardless,i dont evwr really see a conventional hot conflict with china as the adversary. They need each other too muxh.

I'd push back a little bit here on the optimism and the conclusion.

Yes the US has superb small-manufacturer depth, but the critical bottlenecks in modern weapons are not the sheds and the garages. The critical bottlenecks are a handful of highly specilized facilities that can produce things like solid rocket motors, advanced semiconductors and precision guidance components. Those are concentrated and some are genuinely singular, i.e. some components in key US weapons systems are effectively sourced from one or two suppliers globally. Losing even of those facilities would cripple production in ways that no amount of distributed light manufacturing can compensate for.

On the China interdependence point, this is the conventional wisdom and it's probably right today, but it's worth noting that China has been deliberately reducing that mutual dependency since Trump 1.0 so roughly during the last decade. Their USD exposure is down, their domestic consumption is rising and they're been building alt trading relationships thru BRICS and Belt & Road. They're not fully decoupled from the US, but the assumption that economic interdependence makes conflict unthinkable is on a shakier footing each year.

The scenario that @Carolina Red raises, a war of attrition in the ME where Chinese production feeds adversaries while US stockpiles drain, is more realistic than a direct conventional confrontation anyway. China can decide the outcome of a war without firing a single shot itself, simply by keeping the other side supplied.

Which rather brings the conversation full circle, back to the original cost-exchange problem that started this thread (@dumbo and @Sweet Square post) and it's worth spelling out just how lopsided that is. Think about it this way. Every time a defender shoots down a cheap drone with an expensive interceptor they're losing the economic battle even when they win the actual engagement. The attacker just needs to keep the factory running. An Iron Dome interceptor costs somewhere between $50k and $100k a shot. A Patriot is $3-4 million. A hypersonic interceptor can run over $10 million. The Shahed drones getting knocked out of the sky are maybe $20 to 50k each. The math is just brutal.

And we already saw this play out for real. Israel's defense against the Iranian barrage during the 12 day war was running somewhere around $1 to 1.5 billion per night. Per night. These systems were never built for that kind of problem. They were designed to stop nuclear warheads and precision guided missiles from peer states, not to swat away hundreds of cheap drones at maybe $500 a pop. That's a completely different threat and the old Cold War playbook has no good answer for it.

So if China is quietly sitting back and just keeping the other side's conveyor belt stocked, the numbers get really ugly really fast and nobody on our side of that equation has figured out a good answer yet.

Short of using nukes that is.
 
To further illustrate the point:



According to that WSJ piece, the munitions drain is already happening. US is burning through THAAD, Patriot and SM-3 interceptors faster than they can be replaced, and this conflict has barely started. One analyst quoted literally says "we're using them faster than we can replace them" which is the cost exchange problem in plain English.
 
To further illustrate the point:



According to that WSJ piece, the munitions drain is already happening. US is burning through THAAD, Patriot and SM-3 interceptors faster than they can be replaced, and this conflict has barely started. One analyst quoted literally says "we're using them faster than we can replace them" which is the cost exchange problem in plain English.


It was only yesterday people were saying that the weapons stockpile deficiency was a myth and the US had more than enough to bomb Iran back to the stone age.

I'm sure someone even said they had enough to take out Europe.

It's known Iran doesn't have the largest stockpile of missiles either but they have enough to stretch the US defences. It's also clear that their Fattah-1 hypersonic missiles can breach any US defence. How many they have is unknown, but it's clear they are holding back, because if they wanted to, they could let those loose at the US naval fleet and cause a serious amount of damage. Obviously the escalation from doing so is what is preventing them from taking those steps. Steps that probably would take the situation beyond the point of no return.
 
Everyone is expecting it to be short-lived and it doesn't really change much for most companies' earnings. If it winds up being more sustained and the oil price remains high after its initial jump, then you might see more of an impact, but the region is ultimately of fairly low importance in terms of global stock markets and economy.
I think if oil really explodes in price it can affect the stocks market because fundamentally that can cause worldwide inflation to go up. But so far it reallly hasnt. It gapped up and fell down almost immediately. Speculators were selling not holding. At least for now.
 
USAF F15 crashes in Kuwait, said to be from friendly fire, a video shows the pilot on the ground, may have ejected on time
 
The dangerous moment for US/Israel is what happens when Trump brainfarts. He has no clue what he's doing, if the media headlines turn that is all he will care about. I don't think he has an exit-strategy here. He'll either escalate to indiscriminate destruction until the country can't function at all, or he'll just stop and walk away with no regime change.
His exit strategy will be to blame the Iranians for not overthrowing the regime. He'll spin it as win by killing the Iranian leadership and the Epstein files will be a distant memory.
 
Woke up to a message from my wife in Dubai just now describing “massive explosions” there this morning. Still she says things remain quite calm.
 
Do the Iranians have guided missiles or do they just lob missiles at general target areas?

They do, but for many their accuracy is a matter of hundreds of meters, like much of the Russian arsenal.

They also face jamming out their GSP signals from the other side, US and Israel are good at this.

Sanctions makes it hard for Iran to get crucial parts for high accuracy missiles.
 
“Sadly there will likely be more (American military deaths). That’s just the way it is.”

- President Donald Trump

Who the feck ends a sentence like that with ‘that’s just the way it is’, like he’s referring to something out of his control, a freak weather event or earthquake.
 
Who the feck ends a sentence like that with ‘that’s just the way it is’, like he’s referring to something out of his control, a freak weather event or earthquake.
He’s a fecking imbecile. Probably thinks they’ll be floating at the bottom of the sea along with the Iranian ships.
 
Everyone is expecting it to be short-lived and it doesn't really change much for most companies' earnings. If it winds up being more sustained and the oil price remains high after its initial jump, then you might see more of an impact, but the region is ultimately of fairly low importance in terms of global stock markets and economy.
Yeah, fair point.
 
They do, but for many their accuracy is a matter of hundreds of meters, like much of the Russian arsenal.

They also face jamming out their GSP signals from the other side, US and Israel are good at this.

Sanctions makes it hard for Iran to get crucial parts for high accuracy missiles.

Talking about Iranian weaponry, reading your exchange has just reminded me of something.

Didn't Khameini issue a fatwa against nuclear weapons?

Early 2000s if I recall. He said it was haram and against sharia for Iran to make a nuclear bomb in speeches and in paper.

Subsequently there were those Iran who disagreed and argued necessity should dictate whether they built nuclear weapons or not.

Just thinking their arguments would be justifiable now and A N other Ayatullah may pass an edict making it necessary
 
To further illustrate the point:



According to that WSJ piece, the munitions drain is already happening. US is burning through THAAD, Patriot and SM-3 interceptors faster than they can be replaced, and this conflict has barely started. One analyst quoted literally says "we're using them faster than we can replace them" which is the cost exchange problem in plain English.


The munitions drain is real but whatever those are in that video, theyre not Patriot missiles.
 
An attack so successful we destroyed our entire contingency. Please, please Mr President it's too much winning, I'm tired of winning. :(
 
According to Kuwait Ministry of Defence, several US planes have crashed. Could it be lost in translation or he is also talking about drones?

Statement No. 7

The spokesperson for the Ministry of Defense stated that several U.S. military aircraft crashed this morning, confirming the complete safety of their crews.

He explained that the relevant authorities immediately initiated search and rescue procedures, whereby the crews were evacuated and transferred to the hospital to check on their health status and provide the necessary medical care, noting that their condition is stable.

The official spokesperson added that direct coordination was conducted with the friendly U.S. forces regarding the circumstances of the incident, and joint technical measures were taken.He affirmed that the concerned authorities are following up on the investigations to determine the causes of the incident, calling for information to be obtained from its official sources.

 
According to Kuwait Ministry of Defence, several US planes have crashed. Could it be lost in translation or he is also talking about drones?





Drones are (unmanned) aircrafts so it's possible that they included but the crew part means that it's not just drones.
 
Lindsey Graham is a psychopath. How can one have such fetish for war and death?
 
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