The U.S. and Israel attack Iran

rio's upper lip

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Looks almost inevitable at this point. Major movements of military personell, vehicles and equipment in the region.

https://www.axios.com/2026/02/18/iran-war-trump-military-strikes-nuclear-talks

The Trump administration is closer to a major war in the Middle East than most Americans realize. It could begin very soon.
Why it matters: A U.S. military operation in Iran would likely be a massive, weeks-long campaign that would look more like full-fledged war than last month's pinpoint operation in Venezuela, sources say.
  • The sources noted it would likely be a joint U.S.-Israeli campaign that's much broader in scope — and more existential for the regime — than the Israeli-led 12-day war last June, which the U.S. eventually joined to take out Iran's underground nuclear facilities.
  • Such a war would have a dramatic influence on the entire region and major implications for the remaining three years of the Trump presidency.
  • With the attention of Congress and the public otherwise occupied, there is little public debate about what could be the most consequential U.S. military intervention in the Middle East in at least a decade.
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Wasn't Trump’s first term about American isolationism and no more getting involved and all that?

There will be some in the Maga base that will literally stand by their president no matter what horrible things come to light but I can see some (a few) of them being pissed off with this. I just hope the Iranian people can get through this and be free of the regime.
 
I can’t wait for the UK to jump balls deep into this. I for one can’t wait for conscription and fighting for ARE country.
 
Irwin99 said:
Wasn't Trump’s first term about American isolationism and no more getting involved and all that?

There will be some in the Maga base that will literally stand by their president no matter what horrible things come to light but I can see some (a few) of them being pissed off with this. I just hope the Iranian people can get through this and be free of the regime.
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Isolation was a political stunt for the election to get rubes in line. He is no different than a child playing with boats and army men in a bath tub, but in reality is actually a dementia-riddled autocrat that will go around the world with an armada to get exact what he wants.
 
I just can’t quite conceive of how this is going to work? They can’t invade on the ground, the Israelis already bombed most of the available military infrastructure last year, and they won’t be able to force regime change from slinging bombs at then from a distance.

Anyone more clued up than me can predict americas gameplan here?
 
T00lsh3d said:
I just can’t quite conceive of how this is going to work? They can’t invade on the ground, the Israelis already bombed most of the available military infrastructure last year, and they won’t be able to force regime change from slinging bombs at then from a distance.

Anyone more clued up than me can predict americas gameplan here?
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Decapitation strikes --> Leadership vaccum --> Internal power struggle and strife --> Internal domestic groups begin to take over control

1 and 2 are reasonable. 3 could happen, with the parallel systems that Iran has going vying for control and resources. 4 is where it gets very iffy.
 
They could also technically invade and force a pitched battle Dien Bien Phu style, minus the French incompetence of course.

One of the wargames had a small US force take Bandar Abbass, which is quite divided along secular lines, it's important enough that Iran theoretically may be forced to try and take it back. The wargames showed Iran massing huge troops for a counterattack only to get battered in a set-piece open battle.

Don't think anyone in DoD will go for this - far too risky.
 
T00lsh3d said:
I just can’t quite conceive of how this is going to work? They can’t invade on the ground, the Israelis already bombed most of the available military infrastructure last year, and they won’t be able to force regime change from slinging bombs at then from a distance.

Anyone more clued up than me can predict americas gameplan here?
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WSJ reporter:

 
Also think the full tempo ops won't begin for a while yet. USS G R Ford is still somewhere in the Atlantic.
 
AfonsoAlves said:
Decapitation strikes --> Leadership vaccum --> Internal power struggle and strife --> Internal domestic groups begin to take over control

1 and 2 are reasonable. 3 could happen, with the parallel systems that Iran has going vying for control and resources. 4 is where it gets very iffy.
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Reasonable in what sense
 
I'm sure I recall the previous claims that they'd put the Iranian enrichment programme back years? So the urgency is what exactly?
 
Smores said:
I'm sure I recall the previous claims that they'd put the Iranian enrichment programme back years? So the urgency is what exactly?
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Bibi or whatever they call him probably mentioned that Iran is months away from having nukes.
 
AfonsoAlves said:
Decapitation strikes --> Leadership vaccum --> Internal power struggle and strife --> Internal domestic groups begin to take over control

1 and 2 are reasonable. 3 could happen, with the parallel systems that Iran has going vying for control and resources. 4 is where it gets very iffy.
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Will they really be able to assassinate the leadership? I just can’t see it….if it were that easy I can’t but help think the Israelis would have already done it years ago
 
T00lsh3d said:
Will they really be able to assassinate the leadership? I just can’t see it….if it were that easy I can’t but help think the Israelis would have already done it years ago
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Decapitation strikes doesn't just mean kill the leadership.
 
TheGame said:
The UK has already denied Trump's request to use their airbases hence his U turn on the Chagos deal.
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Well, the group of five aircraft I was tracking over Hungary going south-east yesterday was a C5 Galaxy superheavy transport, a C17 Globemaster heavy transport, two KC-135 Stratotanker aerial refuelling aircraft, all USAF - and one KC-2 Voyager tanker aircraft by the RAF, identifying as flight RRR2264. The latter ended up landing in Akrotiri, Cyprus. At least for now.

That at least somewhat hints at the UK getting involved in some capacity.
 
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G3079 said:
Well, the group of five aircraft I was tracking over Hungary going south-east yesterday was a C5 Galaxy superheavy transport, a C17 Globemaster heavy transport, two KC-135 Stratotanker aerial refuelling aircraft - and one KC-2 Voyager tanker aircraft by the RAF, identifying as flight RRR2264. The latter ended up landing in Akrotiri, Cyprus. At least for now.

That at least somewhat hints at the UK getting involved in some capacity.
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I think the line is using UK territory to launch the attacks (if the story is correct). The international law ramifications of that would be great, and the UK does not have the ability to simply do as it pleases like the US can.
 
So all of those big bombs that supposedly killed all the nuclear stuff did feck all?
Shocker
 
Oh no they’re evil and violent. Let’s KILL them!

US and Israel. Trump and Epstein. Dickheads and pedos unite.
 
Frosty said:
Would it mean killing the Head of State in your view?

I'm thinking about the legal ramifications of that move in particular.
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I don't think Trump would care about the legal ramifications of doing it. That said, I would be surprised if it happens since it looks like he's using the threat of a military intervention to coerce the regime into signing a nuclear deal. Trump also badly wants to remove the Epstein story from the news cycle, and this would do it.
 
Great news, because Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya turned out so well.
 
The Purley King said:
So all of those big bombs that supposedly killed all the nuclear stuff did feck all?
Shocker
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It was all performative bs when they did that. Between Iran having bunkers too deep for the bunker busters to penetrate and the stories that Iran got advance notice of what they would hit, it was just more Trump theater. But hey I'm glad my tax dollars went to "good" use again.
 
I mean, it’s not as if Iran weren’t willing to negotiate a deal before they were attacked by Israel and US forces last year, wasn’t that exactly what they were working on. Attacks were a «massive success and wiped out everything» but a year later we’re apparantly talking about nuclear arms again and forcing them into a deal by threatning with a full scale war.

Makes a bit more sense if their goal was never about any deals, only regime change, hoping it would collapse and get overthrown last summer.
 
It's terrible idea, as it was the last time. Aside from all the murders that will happen, the region may go up in flames and then energy prices through the roof and likely hits everyone else, too.
 
Iran has been in the cross-hairs of the warmongering Neocons for decades. John McCain must be looking up from hell smiling right now.
 
Redplane said:
It was all performative bs when they did that. Between Iran having bunkers too deep for the bunker busters to penetrate and the stories that Iran got advance notice of what they would hit, it was just more Trump theater. But hey I'm glad my tax dollars went to "good" use again.
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B2's are notoriously fuel efficient, as is the GBU57. It's almost like the US intelligence community copied a random analysis post I made 10-15 years ago and assumed it'd accurate. Tax dollars at work.
 
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