Project Freedom going so well that it’s paused to see what Iran has to say about it going so well.
The U.S. and Israel attack Iran
- Thread starter rio's upper lip
- Start date
Please don't cancel your China trip again Mister President
, you will look like such a big bwave boy standing next to Xi. Show him what you've been working on: If you pull the paper tail the mouth opens and shuts.More details on ‘memorandum to end war’
We have some more details about the reports that Iran and the US have been closing in on a one-page memorandum to end the war.Citing two US officials and two other sources briefed on the discussions, Axios said the deal would, among others, involve Iran committing to a moratorium on nuclear enrichment, the US agreeing to lift its sanctions and release billions of dollars in frozen Iranian funds, and both sides lifting restrictions around transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
The news outlet’s report said the US expected an Iranian response in the next 48 hours.
Neither side has officially commented yet.
https://aje.news/klsnde?update=4549680
Iran was willing to open the Strait during the ceasefire but didnt because of the US blockade. The new proposed deal (if true) will get US to lift sanctions and unfreeze Iranian funds on top of it..
Iran was already willing to dilute the enriched uranium and stop it for a few years..
Big win for Iran if true.
5 minutes is generous, i think it was it was 5 seconds using the 5 braincells he possesses
It may be worth noting that Axios has been reporting with a slant towards "don't worry folks a deal is close" messaging - which is aligned with the US interest in keeping markets calm during this war.
It also may be worth noting that Barack Ravid is an Israeli journalist and former member of the IDF's Unit 8200, which is a rough equivalent to the US NSA (or at least that's what Wikipedia says).
That said, the described deal structure is pretty much exactly what seems to have been bandied about at every stage of negotiations. Anything that ends the conflict without further damage to energy infrastructure is a win for the world imo.
I am 100% certain that guy is being paid by the government to post this shit. And IMHO there's also a good chance he is involved in some kind of market manipulation.
A useful refresher from a former Biden Middle East adviser on where the war stands — and why oil markets may be heading toward a physical-supply cliff.
- We are living in a world of fake headlines and pretend stability. If missiles are still flying, it is not a ceasefire. If fighting is still happening in Lebanon, it is not a ceasefire. And if tankers are not actually moving to Asia or Europe, then the “market is functioning” story is bullshit.
- There is a massive disconnect between the paper market and the physical market. Sure, you can “buy oil at $110” on a Bloomberg terminal. Good luck getting actual barrels where they are needed.
- The pain hits poorer countries first, then middle-income countries, then import-dependent economies like Japan and Korea, and eventually the U.S.
I think that timeline compresses much quicker, but I won't quibble too much with that sequencing.
- Demand destruction becomes the adjustment mechanism, i.e. countries and consumers get priced out.
- Longer term, Iran controls Hormuz and countries need to rethink supply chains, build storage, and create infrastructure that bypasses the Strait.
- On Iran, Hochstein is skeptical the war was necessary. His view is that the U.S. already had the JCPOA, any future deal may look broadly similar, and the rationale for this war keeps shifting.
- He is not saying Iran is fine. He is saying Iran can absorb pain longer than people assume (which is a point I've been making for months)
- Bottom line: the U.S. is not insulated. Consumers still get hit through gasoline, diesel, freight, food, inflation, and air travel. Even if America has oil and jet fuel at home, global supply chains need fuel everywhere. You cannot “take it with you.”
That's a logical and rational assessment.
In the meantime, we keep winessing well-timed vibe-trading.
For those who can't/won't click through, the rebound is caused by Iran publishing a website (seriously?) for Hormuz toll coordination.
Axios is a propaganda news site. Barak Ravid just prints what Israeli and US officials tell him to say.
Which fits the pattern of controlled, timely and very profitable market-swinging actions being used to full effect by both sides.
The Twitterspere is full of nonsense and lies...
Ravid is an excellent reporter with good connections. And the supporters of the government in Israel consider him as some sort of enemy of the state for some of the stuff he posts regarding Israel's actions.
His history in the military is meaningless.
Its about as mainstream as US news sources get these days. Ravid also happens to work for CNN, which is even more mainstream than Axios.
To be fair, CNN has been terrible when it comes to israel.
One can parse individual issues, but in mainstream US tv circles, CNN has been the most mainstream news source since its inception.
Barak Ravid’s reporting on this has been a joke.
“Good connections” is not a defense if the output is just laundering official talking points. Axios has floated the Iran deal as “imminent” five times in 19 days. Five times. Still no deal.
Also, nobody said his military history explains every article he writes. The issue is the pattern: same reporter, same official sourcing universe, same “deal is close” framing, same market-moving headline, same non-result.
At some point, you stop calling that access journalism and start calling it getting played in public.
And every single time, someone is front-trading the “news” before the rest of us are supposed to pretend this is just clean reporting.
Give me a break.
Mainstream outlets get used by officials all the time. The fact that it appears in Axios or CNN doesn’t magically make it less planted.
Yes that's usually inclusive of being mainstream. Most officials view such outlets as a credible way to reach an audience, as opposed to the ones that are blatantly partisan or even in the podcast world where everything is done with a clear agenda.
I had been taking this insider trading thing with a pinch of salt but some of these latest expose are quite convincing.
Trump and his cronies seem to have institutionalized front running and are working via a nexus comprising media and military operations.
Trump and his cronies seem to have institutionalized front running and are working via a nexus comprising media and military operations.
Ravid has long had a reputation as a stooge amongst independent news outlets and beyond. You can debate whether that is fair or not but it is the perception.
Put it this way. If you knew 1 hour before the US is going to bomb Iran. What would you do? Assuming you have enough cold cash and a ready set broker?
Tell me it isnt tempting to tell your "loved" ones to at least buy the idiot proof gold futures.
1-2x and you know the information is legit, you'd started to bet everything on margin for easy cash.
Tell me it isnt tempting to tell your "loved" ones to at least buy the idiot proof gold futures.
1-2x and you know the information is legit, you'd started to bet everything on margin for easy cash.
How the voting base of America can think this sausage knows what he’s doing is beyond me.
I know we’ve had some daft feckers at the helm in the U.K. but this is beyond parody
Interesting. I guess this is just another step towards a Saudi-UAE conflict, after UAE stepped out of opec
So Epic Fury/Epstein's Fury/Pedophile Epic has now ended, after much winning for us and obliteration of our enemy. And all we got were these lousy Lego videos, damaged military assets, a bunch of dead servicemen, 175 massacred in the bombing of a girls' school and a squealing global economy. One might say that the real Epic Fury was the friends we lost along the way, or maybe it was Donald Trump yelling in vain that he wasn't a pedophile or a rapist and cursing in the middle of the night for Iran to "Open the feckin’ Strait". Roll on Pedophile Freedom.
Xi should install a Supplicants Door like Mr Burns and have that fat pig crawl through it with his declining empire dragging behind him like a shit-encrusted prolapsed rectum.
Xi should install a Supplicants Door like Mr Burns and have that fat pig crawl through it with his declining empire dragging behind him like a shit-encrusted prolapsed rectum.
I'm surprised it took you so long, it's been pretty obvious for a long time now!
CIA assessment on Iran:
And yet again I'm sure a Republican White House will insist the CIA is full of shit when it comes to findings that contradict what it wants to do. I'm not hailing the CIA (or any intelligence service) as a symbol of good virtue, but it must be frustrating to work in the analysis field for them and actually produce useful findings, only for politics to decide they dont give a shit.
Problem is the CIA have a track record of screwing the pooch on lots of things they were supposed to be the experts on
Difference is that they dont tend to act on things unless ordered to do so by said politicians. As we've also seen- its incredibly common to pressure the CIA to the point of even ratting out clandestine officers (see justification for Iraq war, the Plame affair, Kiriakou's arrest etc), so some things you wonder where the screw up really was.
If this corrupt admin listened to the intelligence community they never would have invaded in the first place as all intelligence agencies assessed Iran was nowhere near having functional nukes. They'll just say fake news and their lemmings will repeat it.
This is really the most incompetent group of idiots (and immoral) running the US than any previous admin in history.
Perhaps not, but their analysis is often used to set or recommend policy (not Trump obviously)
Within the first week we had "90%+ of launchers and missiles destroyed".
in late March there was a bunch of reporting that it was more like 50%.
Now we're down to 25%.
Pour one out for the "they stopped launching hundreds of missiles per day, so that means we took out most of the missiles and launchers" crowd.
Fake news from the failing Central Intelligence Agency. I don't think they're that smart. The Central not-so-intelligent Agency. Not so intelligent Agency. Maybe they should take a cognitive test because I don't think they're that smart. Not as smart as me. Did I mention I recently passed a cognitive test? Passed it with flying colors. Five doctors and they said nobody had ever done so well on that test as me, as your President. Person, woman, man, camera, TV.
Are the UAE attacking Iran right now? Sound like something big could be happening
I'm going to call bullshit on these numbers until clarification and actual docs appear on what is being counted as a missile.
If they retain 70% of the ballistic missiles they had at the start of the war, that means they have the largest SRBM/MRBM missile inventory in the world, by a significant amount.
CENTCOM estimated around 3000 Ballistic missiles in mid 2025. CSIS estimated the same.
550 were confirmed to be fired at Israel in 2025.
In the current war, Iran has confirmed to have fired around 1500 Ballistic missiles.
If they still retain 70% of their pre-war stockpiles...Assuming that 0 ballistic missiles have been destroyed on the ground and every single one remains intact....That means Iran had 7000 Ballistic missiles.
Which is more than Russia/China/USA/Europe combined....
Methinks this estimate includes Iran's tactical missiles stockpiles...otherwise Iran has the strongest missile production program in the world.
Which would not be that surprising, would it? Iran has a very strong missile and drone program but barely any other means for long range strikes. The others you mention all have strong air forces instead.
I tend to agree here however.
I haven't even posted about the claim Iran are repairing their damaged ballistic missiles.
That's obviously nonsense, it's totally uneconomical to do so. Easier to build a new one than trying to fix existing ones with shrapnel holes or explosive damage onto it that compromises the Aerodynamic profile.
That's obviously nonsense, it's totally uneconomical to do so. Easier to build a new one than trying to fix existing ones with shrapnel holes or explosive damage onto it that compromises the Aerodynamic profile.
It would be remarkably surprising. First of all, China's entire area denial defence hinges on its MBRM/SRBM missiles. That's their primary anti ship weapon. Russia's always had a heavy focus on BM programs, even when there were treaties that prevented them going that direction, they still invested round-about ways to build SRBM's and MRBM's, like Iskanders and Tochka's.
Ballistic missiles are not cheap. Chinese missiles which are on the cheap side, their MRBM's cost around 20 million a pop. Their latest ones cost double.
Iran has sanctions on pretty much all of its missile program, they would have to import everything at a huge markup with non-standard logistical routes and procurement methods. These production methods can be tracked/traced relatively easily (as it does with Russia sanction bypassing).
To produce 7000+ ballistic missiles, under sanctions, without anyone noticing, with the amount of money Iran has available, is nigh on impossible. That number also hinges on US/Israel having destroyed 0, which is also pretty much impossible.
We know that Iran cannot produce things that much cheaper than Western weapons despite the pricing gap. Shahed's for example cost around the same as a LUCAS US Drone. Cost of sanctions has to be factored in.
Sounds like both sides are just seeing who can talk the most bollocks 
Yeah I think you're probably right there - I'm a layman and even I've noticed the way that "missile inventories" or "missile launches" are reported seem to flip flop all the time between what kind of missile we're actually talking about. Missiles intercepted numbers are often reported by various media outlets without talking about what kind of missile was intercepted. Sometimes its drones being intercepted reported as missiles. It's frustrating to me - can't imagine how much more annoying it is for someone like yourself.
I laughed when I read the "Iran is repairing damaged missiles". What, are they duct taping a chipped wing or something? All one need do to question that claim is think about it for a minute.
The bolded would make sense.
What interests me more than anything else on the subject is the extent of Iran's ability to manufacture new missiles underground or in facilities otherwise difficult to bomb ("hardened" I guess is the term).