The vaccines | vaxxed boosted unvaxxed? New poll

[jojojo]

Ok, so haven't been following much of the thread and can't really catch up now. A very good friend of mine is talking about 10 people in Germany having died, and some in Norway, specifically related to them taking the vaccine. So much fake news being spread around these days and i am sure i'd have heard about vaccine deaths all over the news. Any truth to this or is it fake news?

I've read up on the Norwegian deaths. They're talking about deaths amongst the "frail elderly" - 23 deaths following the vaccination campaign in elderly residential care homes. To put that into context:
More than 20 000 doses of the vaccine have been administered over the past few weeks in Norway and around 400 deaths normally occur among care home residents every week.

Initial analysis by the experts suggests that in maybe 10 of the cases the known side-effects of the jabs (gastric upset, fever etc) could have been enough to be the "last straw" for people whose health was already fragile.

Unfortunately, we won't know which "frail elderly" people we shouldn't vaccinate until after incidents happen and the statistical analysis gets done. We do know that catching covid will kill a lot more as a percentage of the same group. In the UK (or anywhere with high case numbers) the odds as observed so far are definitely with the "vaccinate them all" philosophy.

I've not seen a breakdown of the German numbers yet.

 

[jojojo]

A good explanation of the story so far on the German numbers.
https://www.business-standard.com/a...ccinated-against-covid-19-121011500088_1.html

The deaths they're studying were aged between 79 and 93 - all with multiple conditions and some of whom were receiving palliative care. Again the challenge will be to see if they can predict for whom it will be the "last straw."

From the first 840 thousand vaccine doses given out in Germany they also report:
The institute also reported six anaphylaxis cases. So far, there have been 325 cases of side-effects allegedly related to the vaccine, including 51 severe ones. Keller-Stanislawski stated that those results are within expectations and correspond to the US vaccination statistics.

To me, the fact that we know these things is actually reassuring. Horrible for the individual families, very frightening for those with reactions - but it's good to know that the right people are keeping a watch on what happens after vaccinations have been given.

 

[Ish]

Thanks a ton @11101 and @jojojo - appreciate the update. Will pass on the messages.

 

[Solius]

My dad gets his vaccine tomorrow. Very relieving to hear!

 

[jojojo]

Another vaccine development bites the dust. A reminder of just how fortunate we've been to get some vaccines this early, and why betting on multiple horses was a necessary buying strategy for countries as well as a good development approach.

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[redshaw]

Johnson & Johnson vaccine sounds really promising.

Would make sense for any manufacturer to concentrate on producing a one shot high efficacy vaccine rather than some of the 2 dose ones. Sub contract it out. Why have a manufacturer waste time and similar resources in a pandemic making the worst 2 dose vaccine later on? It's obviously also double the work administering the jabs and adds months extra in limbo for full protection, that's months more restrictions having a huge impact on economies and peoples patience around the world.

Not sure on the exact materials on the AZ compared to J&J etc. AZ is useful right now given UK's dire situation and has been touted as a good one for third world countries due to storage but the 2 dose Moderna one is there now. The time and work giving out 2 doses is tough for anywhere so might make sense to go all out on J&J and Moderna later? As awareness grows you could have more wanting the high efficacy vaccines so a lot of effort could go to waste later in the year unless they phase some out.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

Germany reporting that EU-commission has refused to approve AZ for over 65’s? Bit mad that, gives only 10% protection for that group according to those reports.

 

[C'est Moi Cantona]

Germany reporting that EU-commission has refused to approve AZ for over 65’s? Bit mad that, gives only 10% protection for that group according to those reports.

Has to be rubbish.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

Has to be rubbish.

Sounds utterly bizarre, 8% according to another German source.

https://www.reuters.com/article/hea...a-vaccine-for-seniors-bild-says-idUSL1N2K024E

 

[C'est Moi Cantona]

Sounds utterly bizarre, 8% according to another German source.

https://www.reuters.com/article/hea...a-vaccine-for-seniors-bild-says-idUSL1N2K024E

I hope this is shown up to be nonsense very quickly, as it could utterly undermine the vaccine rollout in the UK if this blows up.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

Sounds utterly bizarre, 8% according to another German source.

https://www.reuters.com/article/hea...a-vaccine-for-seniors-bild-says-idUSL1N2K024E

The source is Bild. It’s the German version of the Sun and they’re refusing to name sources or supply any data. They also demanded on their front page recently to know why a Cypriot was running the EMA vaccine procurement program.

Best to remain sceptical at this point.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

Oh I’m sceptical, hence saying it seems utterly bizarre. Even as a nonsense story it’s an odd one.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I hope this is shown up to be nonsense very quickly, as it could utterly undermine the vaccine rollout in the UK if this blows up.

The source is Bild. It’s the German version of the Sun and they’re refusing to name sources or supply any data. They also demanded on their front page recently to know why a Cypriot was running the EMA vaccine procurement program.

Best to remain sceptical at this point.

Oh I’m sceptical, hence saying it seems utterly bizarre. Even as a nonsense story it’s an odd one.

My thoughts from the other thread.

Just looking back at the Lancet publication (that’s how exciting my life is these days) Only 418 out of the 11600 subjects in the primary analysis were aged 70+. So was always going to be a stretch to be confident it works in elderly.

Likely that EMA got data cuts that weren’t available at time of MHRA submission. Assuming still very small numbers of >70yo would only take a few cases of covid in the vaccine arm to completely undermine efficacy data submitted in UK. If that’s the case then the MHRA will have to amend Uk license.

Interesting few days ahead!

Should also say, re-reading the Lancet paper reminded me what an absolute fecking shambles it was. I still think/hope it’s a decent vaccine but they made an awful bollix of proving it. On the plus side, there’s more data being generated all the time. So at some point there will be really solid evidence to work through.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

Interesting Pogue. Watch this space I guess.

 

[C'est Moi Cantona]

My thoughts from the other thread.

Surely there is no coicedence that this is coming out after the reported heated meetings between the EU and AZ today, I'm not saying there's not holes in the data, but would it have been reported like this if AZ were on track with all their promised deliveries.

 

[Skills]

We'll find out about efficacy in the over 80s soon enough with the first jab.

 

[Mickeza]

Surely there is no coicedence that this is coming out after the reported heated meetings between the EU and AZ today, I'm not saying there's not holes in the data, but would it have been reported like this if AZ were on track with all their promised delveries.

Telegraph front-page is the EU are threatening to block Pfizer exports to the UK from Brussels because of the cut in AZ supply. It’s all politics unfortunately.

 

[redshaw]

Posted this in the other thread a little while back saying 8%
https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft...eglich-a-f08b28d7-51c6-490b-a300-e2ac77f6609f

Whether true or not it seems the EU UK spat is on

 

[Brophs]

Johnson & Johnson vaccine sounds really promising.

Would make sense for any manufacturer to concentrate on producing a one shot high efficacy vaccine rather than some of the 2 dose ones. Sub contract it out. Why have a manufacturer waste time and similar resources in a pandemic making the worst 2 dose vaccine later on? It's obviously also double the work administering the jabs and adds months extra in limbo for full protection, that's months more restrictions having a huge impact on economies and peoples patience around the world.

Not sure on the exact materials on the AZ compared to J&J etc. AZ is useful right now given UK's dire situation and has been touted as a good one for third world countries due to storage but the 2 dose Moderna one is there now. The time and work giving out 2 doses is tough for anywhere so might make sense to go all out on J&J and Moderna later? As awareness grows you could have more wanting the high efficacy vaccines so a lot of effort could go to waste later in the year unless they phase some out.

My sister in law works for J&J (in a role that isn't specifically vaccine related but which touches on it) and the noises from within are very positive, at least.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Surely there is no coicedence that this is coming out after the reported heated meetings between the EU and AZ today, I'm not saying there's not holes in the data, but would it have been reported like this if AZ were on track with all their promised deliveries.

Telegraph front-page is the EU are threatening to block Pfizer exports to the UK from Brussels because of the cut in AZ supply. It’s all politics unfortunately.

I’m sure politics is involved. It always is. But we’re all waiting for an EMA decision on approval, which is due at the end of the week. So this could well be a politically motivated leak of legitimate concerns about the data which would have been revealed later this week anyway.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

My sister in law works for J&J (in a role that isn't specifically vaccine related but which touches on it) and the noises from within are very positive, at least.

I’ve heard similar noises. Here’s hoping this one’s a legit blockbuster. We’re due some good news!

 

[Brophs]

I’ve heard similar noises. Here’s hoping this one’s a legit blockbuster. We’re due some good news!

Yeah. I think she said it may ship in April, all going well. The two options of delivery temperature (2-8 for 3 months shelf life and -20 for 2 years) seems to be seen as a really positive thing with the lower income countries in mind, particularly.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Yeah. I think she said it may ship in April, all going well. The two options of delivery temperature (2-8 for 3 months shelf life and -20 for 2 years) seems to be seen as a really positive thing with the lower income countries in mind, particularly.

Just one jab too. Makes the logistics of mass roll-out waaaaay more straightforward.

 

[jojojo]

This twitter thread gives the background to the AZ/German press report. No published data yet, just a set of informal briefings from German government officials. AZ will need to do a major damage limitation exercise tomorrow.

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[Wibble]

Oxford vaccine report wrong unsurprisingly.
https://amp.abc.net.au/article/13091806

 

[Compton22]

One can see the link between the efficacy reports on AZ vaccine and the issue of supply to block EU countries. Didn't take long at all for politics to get involved in vaccine distribution.

We're in the middle of a pandemic, grow the feck up and sort your differences out rather than playing politics with something that is literally the difference between life and death for some people.

 

[prateik]

I clicked the Spiegel link.. couldnt find what that data was based on..
I am guessing AZ submitted data for 2 full doses (the one that supposedly had 62% efficacy) .. and breaking it down by age groups, the efficacy for ages over 65 was 8%..

Is that what it is? If so, I can see why there would be concerns.. totally understandable.

Its been over a month since those numbers were announced.. they are running a huge phase 3 trial.. surely they have a much large data set now.. If it shows the vaccine works well over 65.. they will just publish the new data.

 

[rcoobc]

Its worst effectiveness data would have been good enough though. Obviously, we would all like to get a vaccine that is 95% effective but I'd take the Oxford one in a flash if it were the one on offer.

It might be the only one we have in AU. It looks like we were so late to the party ordering others that need importing that the Oxford one, which will be made here, may be the first cab off the rank and the only one for some time. We are only now thinking about ordering the Johnson and Johnson one - which could be good new if it is as effective as the rumors say - 100% and sterilising.

Was this post picked up?

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Oxford vaccine report wrong unsurprisingly.
https://amp.abc.net.au/article/13091806

“Wrong” according to the manufacturer. So possibly not wrong at all.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I clicked the Spiegel link.. couldnt find what that data was based on..
I am guessing AZ submitted data for 2 full doses (the one that supposedly had 62% efficacy) .. and breaking it down by age groups, the efficacy for ages over 65 was 8%..

Is that what it is? If so, I can see why there would be concerns.. totally understandable.

Its been over a month since those numbers were announced.. they are running a huge phase 3 trial.. surely they have a much large data set now.. If it shows the vaccine works well over 65.. they will just publish the new data.

Publishing the data isn’t the issue. The data they did publish in the Lancet was nowhere near robust enough to justify use in the elderly. So we have to hope that unpublished data exists which is a lot more persuasive.

They could/should have submitted the very latest cut of (unpublished) data to the EMA. We’re now waiting to see what they make of it.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

“Wrong” according to the manufacturer. So possibly not wrong at all.

Is there precedence for vaccines that have such an efficacy drop off in certain age group, if so what are some of the reasons?

I seem to recall reading somewhere that if the J&J vaccine is 100% effective it will be the first vaccine in history to be, can't find where I read that, do you know if that's correct?

 

[11101]

Oxford vaccine report wrong unsurprisingly.
https://amp.abc.net.au/article/13091806

An easier way to show it's wrong would be to state the actual figures.

 

[Wibble]

“Wrong” according to the manufacturer. So possibly not wrong at all.

Maybe but would you trust unsubstantiated rumours from the German equivalent of The Sun?

I think it is very unlikely 8% is anywhere near correct. Older people typically only get slightly less benefit from vaccination so such a huge drop off would be unusul. Plus the data we do have suggests the efficiency is pretty damn good for older people.

 

[Wibble]

Was this post picked up?

Wouldn't this be great news if phase 3 trials confirm it?

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Maybe but would you trust unsubstantiated rumours from the German equivalent of The Sun?

I think it is very unlikely 8% is anywhere near correct. Older people typically only get slightly less benefit from vaccination so such a huge drop off would be unusul. Plus the data we do have suggests the efficiency is pretty damn good for older people.

The article I read was a summary of a story in Handelsblatt, not Bild.

Here’s a tweet thread from one of the journalists involved.

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[Grinner]

My sister and neice got the Pfizer yesterday. They had to drive from Broadstairs to St. Thomas' to get it though.

 

[rcoobc]

Wouldn't this be great news if phase 3 trials confirm it?

Eh? Do you mean something different by sterilisation?

 

[F-Red]

Surely if the efficacy in the over 80's was an issue from the EU, we would have heard about it sooner? Not in line with when delays to yields and deliveries to the EU was announced?

 

[NinjaFletch]

The article I read was a summary of a story in Handelsblatt, not Bild.

Here’s a tweet thread from one of the journalists involved.

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[Pogue Mahone]

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That makes a lot more sense. 8% efficacy was never very plausible. Still seems to be a big deficiency in their data in the elderly. They just didn’t recruit very many. Hopefully there are more recent cuts available with at least some evidence it works in the over 70s.

If not and it’s only licensed for U70s (the other big claim in that article) it’s no major drama. Just science working the way it should. Give Pfizer/Moderna vaccines to the elderly and AZ to younger people until we’re certain it has similar efficacy across all age groups. This sort of thing is the reason why we have regulators and prescribe in accordance with approved licenses.