Tiebreakers: Head to Head vs Goal Difference. Which one is fairer?

[SirAnderson]

Never really paid attention to the fact that La Liga and Serie A does there tie-breakers based on Head to Head results where as the Premier League and other leagues do goal difference. Having watch the Premier League most of my live, I've just always accepted goal difference as the way tie breakers are decided.

Outscoring your opponents and conceding less than your opponents over the course of a season seems more fairer way to break a tie instead of basing it on 2 games with the team you breaking the tie with. On the other hand, it could be argued that since the tiebreak is between 2 teams, results of other teams shouldn't weigh in the decision but rather how you fared against the team you are tied with.

What's the Cafe's preference or rather, what is fairer?

 

[adexkola]

Good question. I think that the fairest way to go is to base it on t

 

[giorno]

Goal difference. It's 38 games, not 2

 

[SirAnderson]

Goal difference. It's 38 games, not 2

It was actually Real Madrid going top tonight that sparked me thinking about it seeing how they have a lower goal difference to Barca. I also lean toward goal difference being better. But guess there is an argument for head to head as well perhaps.

 

[V.O.]

Got to be goal difference. Like you say, it's fairer to have it be something derived from the whole season rather than 2 games. Also encourages more attacking play from teams that have already won games.

If there's a title run-in and GD is close, there's a feeling that every goal counts. If the two teams have already played their games against each other and it's already known who will win if they're level, I think the remaining games lose something.

 

[Samid]

Goal difference in league competitions.
Head to head in tournament group stages.

 

[TheGodsInRed]

It was actually Real Madrid going top tonight that sparked me thinking about it seeing how they have a lower goal difference to Barca. I also lean toward goal difference being better. But guess there is an argument for head to head as well perhaps.

It makes the El Classico a much bigger game, worth an extra point effectively. You lose the excitement of a team needing to finish the season scoring loads of goals to up their goal difference, which doesn’t happen very often to be fair, but adds some excitement. 2011-12 was the only time in the prem.

 

[SirAnderson]

It makes the El Classico a much bigger game, worth an extra point effectively. You lose the excitement of a team needing to finish the season scoring loads of goals to up their goal difference, which doesn’t happen very often to be fair, but adds some excitement. 2011-12 was the only time in the prem.

Yeah, now the hype of the Clasico makes a bit more sense thinking of it in terms of head to head. Usually in the Prem it is about bragging rights, even though points are meaningful too.

Not only in 2012. Also when Arsenal beat Liverpool in the 1988-89 season. "Cheating scum, cheating scum", how far they've come shame.

Interesting time where GD was crazy was in the Eredivisie. PSV, Ajax and AZ headed into the final day of the 2006-07 Eredivisie season all level on points.

PSV eventually won the title during a breathless 90 minutes for all sides after winning 5-1 against Vitesse Arnhem which secured them a goal difference of +50 to Ajax's +49, while AZ lost to Excelsior.

 

[pascell]

Definitely goal difference, when it's head to head things like injuries and suspension play a massive part. Plus when a manager knows it could come down to head to head, away from home he can play defensive and at home play attacking, knowing that a 0-0 draw away and a 1-0 win at home could secure them a title should it come down to it.

I think goal difference encourages a more entertaining game, should Barcelona be 3 goals ahead of Real before they play their next game, Real know they need to score at least 3 to go top, makes a better viewing for fans.

 

[giorno]

You're focusing on the wrong end of the table though

Tiebreakers have a significantly bigger impact on the relegation spots

GD forces teams to play hard for 90 minutes every game

 

[Sean_RedDevil]

Goal difference. It's 38 games, not 2

This

 

[SirAnderson]

Definitely goal difference, when it's head to head things like injuries and suspension play a massive part. Plus when a manager knows it could come down to head to head, away from home he can play defensive and at home play attacking, knowing that a 0-0 draw away and a 1-0 win at home could secure them a title should it come down to it.

I think goal difference encourages a more entertaining game, should Barcelona be 3 goals ahead of Real before they play their next game, Real know they need to score at least 3 to go top, makes a better viewing for fans.

I think that is too simplistic. Both Barca and Real have always had their pulse on the throat when it comes to scoring goals. They score for fun and don't have that mindset from what I see. Maybe its because its a 2 way horse race and they can dominate all the other teams. But I still don't feel that is the reality when we see how many goals and how Real and Barca approach their games.

 

[SirAnderson]

You're focusing on the wrong end of the table though

Tiebreakers have a significantly bigger impact on the relegation spots

GD forces teams to play hard for 90 minutes every game

Yeah true, I didn't considered Relegation battles. But even there still, their fate would be decided by Barca that put 6 pass them instead of the guy that they won against, that is on the same points as them and they lost it. I understand, and still think its a better way, but I do see some cases for Head to Head being a good choice as well. Maybe GD, like I say is MORE fairer, not that Head to Head is not fair at all.

 

[Dancfc]

There's a solid case for both.

On one hand it wouldn't feel right if you did the double on a team but then lost the title on GD to them but in equal measure should a team be rewarded for sticking an extra few past Norwich?

Bit of a cliche but neither are right or wrong, both have pro's and cons.

 

[SirAnderson]

There's a solid case for both.

On one hand it wouldn't feel right if you did the double on a team but then lost the title on GD to them but in equal measure should a team be rewarded for sticking an extra few past Norwich?

Bit of a cliche but neither are right or wrong, both have pro's and cons.

This is also what I feel. Hence why I asked what one people think is fairer. It's not a case of one is wrong and other is right, as you say its pro's and con's. So maybe fairness based on which has the most pro's and/or less harsher con's...
Tough one.
Also, I think the league you in changes which one is fairer. In the Premier league, where the smaller teams are able to pull of wins against the bigger ones, GD makes more sense maybe, whereas in a league that is dominated by 1 or 2 teams, maybe head to head is the way to go? Urgh, I don't know.

 

[Mr Parker]

I actually think it might improve the excitement of the league and promote more attacking football if it was done on wins then on goals scored instead of goal difference.

 

[giorno]

Yeah true, I didn't considered Relegation battles. But even there still, their fate would be decided by Barca that put 6 pass them instead of the guy that they won against, that is on the same points as them and they lost it. I understand, and still think its a better way, but I do see some cases for Head to Head being a good choice as well. Maybe GD, like I say is MORE fairer, not that Head to Head is not fair at all.

H2H is better in smaller samples. Over 3 or 6 games, it's better

Over 38, GD is the better system. That team that gave up 6 goals to barcelona stopped played after the second, because 2-0 or 6-0 makes little difference to the table and losing 6-0 to barcelona is no longer even some big humiliation

 

[Pagh Wraith]

Goal difference is a much better indicator of the true strength of two teams than head to head. Better than points even. But reflecting true strength might not be the motivation behind it so I can definitely see a case for head to head.

 

[Jaqen H'ghar]

Goal Difference.

I actually think it might improve the excitement of the league and promote more attacking football if it was done on wins then on goals scored instead of goal difference.

That would be a good idea.

 

[SirAnderson]

I actually think it might improve the excitement of the league and promote more attacking football if it was done on wins then on goals scored instead of goal difference.

That would be interesting.
A lot is said about how each tiebreaker affects how teams approach matches. Personally, I don't think it comes across that much.
Or then again maybe it does. Like in La Liga when a team is losing 4 nil against Barca they don't have to worry about conceding more in terms of it threatening their GD. But I feel that relegation threatened team, shouldn't be going down because they let 6 in from Barca, who they not playing against really, they playing against those in their bracket that's fighting to stay up. Almost like in F1, you don't try and race against the top guys, you fight is relevant to your objective, even though everyone is in the same race.

 

[OverratedOpinion]

I think a good question is, do you think it is more likely that a team from the bottom 3 could have a better goal difference than Liverpool over the course of the season or that they could beat them and draw with them?

I think the answer to that is pretty obvious and shows that goal difference over the course of a season is a better indicator than a couple of matches.

 

[SirAnderson]

I think a good question is, do you think it is more likely that a team from the bottom 3 could have a better goal difference than Liverpool over the course of the season or that they could beat them and draw with them?

I think the answer to that is pretty obvious and shows that goal difference over the course of a season is a better indicator than a couple of matches.

Yeah but they not battling with Liverpool to stay in the league, they fighting with those next to them in the bottom 3.
The fact that they will lose their head to head against Liverpool, but possibly stand a chance against their fellow relegation potential mates is what makes me see head to head as fairer in relegation deciders.
Its a case of which of the bottom 3 faired better against the top 4, did they get smash or pull of a result.

Still, I do think GD is a better option overall, but depending on which league, and where on the table, head to head can make more sense.

 

[Sky1981]

Head to head is the fairest. It is a battle between 2 at the end of the day.

Goal difference has its merit if its a good number above the other. But a few goals going different direction isnt a very good indicators or a better team. Especially if they're equal point wise.

 

[SirAnderson]

And remember GD can be skewed by having 1 off day. You may be decent GA and have a decent goals for GF, then 1 team romps you at the end of the season and out you go.
Just like how PSV won the title in 2007 when 3 teams were on the same points. PSV romped a lower level 5-1 and won it. So in that case, 1 match kind of determined the outcome. Granted the other 2 teams shouldn't have let it come to that. But I think in that case, head to head is better.
Guess we can't pick and choose. Just play to the rules of the league you are in.

 

[paulscholes18]

H2H is better, you can’t influence the games you don’t play them

Also would have meant CL football at the end of LVG 2nd season and no Mourinho

 

[TheLord]

There are obvious pros and cons to each system.
Some posters have opined that GD reflects the overall season, rather than head-to-head, which only involves two matches. I think this is an over-simplification. Goal-difference means very little if the two teams are closely matched - like one team has a GD of +100, and the other has +101? Isn't that difference incredibly trivial? Consider this situation: At the end of the League season, Team A and Team B are tied on points. Team A has a goal difference of +101; Team B has a GD of +100. But Team B had done a fine double (home and away) over Team A. Team A will still win the league in the current format, perhaps unfairly.

How about factoring both conditions into the same equation - the best of both worlds?

If two teams are tied on points at the end of the League season (same concept for relegation), the Winner should have a non-inferior goal difference as well as a non-inferior head-to-head record against the other team. If one team has a better head-to-head, but the other team has a better goal difference, the winner will be decided by a one-match playoff.

I know there are complications of introducing a playoff in a league-based system, but what's the harm? They can put an asterisk if a team wins the League based on the single-match playoff, just like with Liverpool this season!

 

[DWelbz19]

Goal difference. It's 38 games, not 2

Simple as.

 

[DWelbz19]

How often does deciding on goal difference ever lead to injustices? Realistically? City’s title win was the only actual GD winner I can think of the top of my head and they had a GD of +8 over us. They’d both scored more and conceded less than us.

 

[SirAnderson]

H2H is better, you can’t influence the games you don’t play them

Also would have meant CL football at the end of LVG 2nd season and no Mourinho

I like this argument alot.

And how was our head to head when City won in 2012? If it was better, h2h is my new fairer

 

[roonster09]

Goal difference. It's 38 games, not 2

Spot on.

 

[hmchan]

There are obvious pros and cons to each system.
Some posters have opined that GD reflects the overall season, rather than head-to-head, which only involves two matches. I think this is an over-simplification. Goal-difference means very little if the two teams are closely matched - like one team has a GD of +100, and the other has +101? Isn't that difference incredibly trivial? Consider this situation: At the end of the League season, Team A and Team B are tied on points. Team A has a goal difference of +101; Team B has a GD of +100. But Team B had done a fine double (home and away) over Team A. Team A will still win the league in the current format, perhaps unfairly.

How about factoring both conditions into the same equation - the best of both worlds?

If two teams are tied on points at the end of the League season (same concept for relegation), the Winner should have a non-inferior goal difference as well as a non-inferior head-to-head record against the other team. If one team has a better head-to-head, but the other team has a better goal difference, the winner will be decided by a one-match playoff.

I know there are complications of introducing a playoff in a league-based system, but what's the harm? They can put an asterisk if a team wins the League based on the single-match playoff, just like with Liverpool this season!

A goal is a goal, don't think that's unfair.

 

[JPRouve]

In Football the goal is to score more and concede less whether we are talking about one game or an entire season. So goal difference should be the ultimate decider, the other issue with head to head is that it relies a lot on form and injuries during a short period of time while goal difference is based on the entire season, there is less room for anomalies and luck. Also in reality both are based on goal difference, head to head is just limited to two games instead of 38.

 

[hmchan]

How often does deciding on goal difference ever lead to injustices? Realistically? City’s title win was the only actual GD winner I can think of the top of my head and they had a GD of +8 over us. They’d both scored more and conceded less than us.

True. Many miss the fact that GD also reflects the outcome of the matches between the two teams involved. If Team B has a double 3:0 win over Team A, they'd gain a +6 GD while Team A would get a -6 GD. So Team B is basically rewarded with 12 GD in these head-to-head fixtures. If Team A still manages to win the title by GD, they should have plenty of convincing victories in other matches and it's fair for them to win.

 

[lysglimt]

There is no wrong or right answer - both can be equally unfair.

With head-to-head - a team can win 3-1 at home, lose 1-2 away - and still end ahead of the opponent, despite the opponent having a gd that is +20 better

With goal difference - the League can be decided one the final day of the season by an opponent that has decided to go on vacation on week early, and lose 0-7 or something

 

[SirAnderson]

1. PSV Pts - 75. GD - 50.
2. Ajax Pts - 75. GD - 49.

Last game of the season:

PSV beat Vitesse 5-1.
Ajax won 0-2 at Willem II.


Head to Head that season:
Ajax lost 0-1 at home to PSV.
PSV lost 1-5 at home to Ajax.

Based on a GD of 1 goal, I can imagine Ajax would feel really hard done by, that just because they bagged 5 goals on the last day against a team they had no control over, PSV won the title, whereas Ajax thumped PSV 5-1 at PSV home ground, and PSV only won 0-1 at Ajax home.

So close margins should maybe involve more than 1 metric to judge final outcomes I think.


When Man City won the title in 2012, they also won the h2h clearly, so there is no hard feelings there.

 

[JPRouve]

1. PSV Pts - 75. GD - 50
2. Ajax Pts - 75. GD - 49.

Last game of the season:

PSV beat Vitesse 5-1.
Ajax won 0-2 at Willem II.


Head to Head that season:
Ajax lost 0-1 at home to PSV.
PSV lost 1-5 at home to Ajax.

Based on a GD of 1 goal, I can imagine Ajax would feel really hard done by, that just because they bagged 5 goals on the last day against a team they had no control over, PSV won the title, whereas Ajax thumped PSV 5-1 at PSV home ground, and PSV only won 0-1 at Ajax home.

So close margins should maybe involve more than 1 metric to judge final outcomes I think.


When Man City won the title in 2012, they also won the h2h clearly, so there is no hard feelings there.

It doesn't really work though. Based on the games that you have picked Ajax win against PSV is well represented, it created an 6 goals delta between both teams while the last game of the season created a +2 for PSV. So PSV win wasn't based on the last game but previous ones which in a league is totally fair.

 

[Baneofthegame]

Goal difference, it based over 38 games, rather than 2, which eliminates a lot of luck and anomalies over the course of the season.

 

[Nick7]

1. PSV Pts - 75. GD - 50.
2. Ajax Pts - 75. GD - 49.

Last game of the season:

PSV beat Vitesse 5-1.
Ajax won 0-2 at Willem II.


Head to Head that season:
Ajax lost 0-1 at home to PSV.
PSV lost 1-5 at home to Ajax.

Based on a GD of 1 goal, I can imagine Ajax would feel really hard done by, that just because they bagged 5 goals on the last day against a team they had no control over, PSV won the title, whereas Ajax thumped PSV 5-1 at PSV home ground, and PSV only won 0-1 at Ajax home.

So close margins should maybe involve more than 1 metric to judge final outcomes I think.


When Man City won the title in 2012, they also won the h2h clearly, so there is no hard feelings there.

This isn't showing what you want it to. It shows Ajax didn't do enough in other games to close out the league after beating their closest competitor after two games by a 6 goal margin.

 

[SirAnderson]

It doesn't really work though. Based on the games that you have picked Ajax win against PSV is well represented, it created an 6 goals delta between both teams while the last game of the season created a +2 for PSV. So PSV win wasn't based on the last game but previous ones which in a league is totally fair.

Yeah but why should 1 team suffer because another team went on holiday on the last day of the season? You could even argue that Vitesse were comfortable at 12 and really had nothing to play for.
Look, I still think generally GD is better, but as I said a few times now, I think it definitely feels not as fair in certain situations, or dependent on the league. I definitely think it is the fairer option in the Premier League with all teams able to get a result against each other.

But as as mentioned in another post, in a league where Barca and Real dominate the lower teams, why should they (Barca and Real) impact who is relegated at the bottom (Mind you its h2h in La Liga, but if it was on GD). It helps that those 3 at the bottom, focus on ensuring the teams they are fighting to stay up against don't beat them. At the same time it doesn't reflect on Barca and Real thumping those lower teams to decide which of them win the league if it goes down to a tie breaker, but on the Clasico.

 

[SirAnderson]

This isn't showing what you want it to. It shows Ajax didn't do enough in other games to close out the league after beating their closest competitor after two games by a 6 goal margin.

The point is both of them didn't do enough to win it out right, hence the tiebreaker. Just because PSV won 5-1 on the last game against a team that had really nothing to play for, gave them the title, by 1 freaking goal. That's crazy for me, too close margins.