I think people are seriously underestimating West Ham now. The analytics models have United and West Ham very close now in terms of medium-term xG performance. As much as one was at home and the other was away, West Ham got a fully deserved win against Chelsea, whilst we hung on to mug a point.
There’s probably a good argument to be made that for months West Ham have been playing towards their ceiling, whilst United have been near their floor, but them having a 3-point and GD lead will be very handy.
United also have to overturn likely point deficits to Arsenal and Spurs once they have played their games in hand.
Whilst there have been positive signs, our performances under Carrick and Rangnick so far haven’t seen us blow any teams away, and we will drop plenty of points in games if can only deliver what we did against Arsenal and Palace.
I don’t think United finish top 4 in the league more than 40% of the time from here. That’s roughly what you get if you give United a 75% chance to finish above each of West Ham, Arsenal and Spurs independently.
West Ham will likely drop off with increasing fixture build up. As you said, they've played to their ceiling while we've played to our floor, and they have 3 points and +8 GD on us. If we match their results for the rest of the season except beat them at Old Trafford, we'll be level on points with them. Don't think it's much of a stretch to expect us to better their rest of season record, even if they've been good. The Christmas period is always a big one.
Arsenal and Spurs as well really haven't impressed yet. XPts wise for the season so far there is nothing to split United, Spurs and Arsenal, while United and Spurs actually have good coaches now so I think it's safe to assume Arsenal with Arteta will drop off. And then the great squad quality of United vs Spurs. We've been absolutely woeful with respect to our squad quality, and I expect to see a sharp turn around in results over the coming months. I don't see Arsenal, Spurs or West Ham with the capability to go on a huge run, while we absolutely have that, and I think we'll see it now. Our fixtures until the end of February:
- Norwich (a)
- Brentford (a)
- Brighton (h)
- Newcastle (a)
- Burnley (h)
- Wolves (h)
- Villa (a)
- West Ham (h)
- Burnley (a)
- Southampton (h)
- Leeds (a)
- Watford (h)
That's 12 games where we have to be the overwhelming favourites for each. Add Palace who we just beat and that's the 3 newly promoted sides, and the entire bottom half of the league last season apart from West Ham, and Leeds last year being 9th. That's a huge opportunity to both claw back the gap and open one of our own, as well as gain some confidence in our play heading into the business end of the season.