I think top 4 will be Liverpool, Chelsea, City guaranteed with 4th place going to either Tottenham or United.
We've rode our luck at times but picking up points when you aren't playing well is important, especially without any pre-season compared to our rivals. I can't see Tottenham replicating this efficiency all season, Son has 10 goals to an expected 3.88, for example. In fact Tottenham have heavily been overperforming their xG and xGA so far this season (5.61 more goals than their xG) and have an additional 6.09 points more than they're expected which suggests their performances will regress to the mean sooner or later. Their early season form is very reminiscent of Leicester last season.
Chelsea are the only team currently performing to their level points wise, I think a lot of the underlying stats such as their shots conceded per 90 are also very favourable so I can't see them tailng off. Liverpool are slightly overperforming but I think their average level of player is so high that it doesn't matter, I just don't think they'll walk the league at a canter. City, on the other hand, are underperforming in virtually every category so annoyingly it looks like this bleak spell isn't going to last. It's worth noting they're not massively under performing so I don't think we'll be seeing a team anywhere near as good as the Centurions but they aren't as bad as some of their results suggest.
The early season underlying stats don't look great from our perspective, we've got 4.22 more points than we should have at this stage and we've also conceded 2.88 more than we should have conceded. We've also scored an additional 3.90 goals more than expected which I'd imagine is due to Rashford and Fernandes's excellent form. What gives me optimism is that we know, as we showed last season after lockdown, that we can be much better than this. Pogba and Martial are some of our best players yet are bang out of form, they're bound to hit form sooner or later. We also did our transfer business really late so our new signings are naturally taking longer to bed in. I can see us getting gradually stronger throughout the season and finishing very strongly.