UK European Elections 2019 | Results Tonight from 10pm

finneh

Full Member
Joined
Jun 28, 2010
Messages
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You may be right that in an ideal world there is a network of trade deals that in aggregate is superior to what we have with the EU although I don’t believe it given the EUs negotiation expertise and leverage, but even if you were right, if it takes 30 years to create this optimal package - which it easily could do - in the meantime we’d suffer enormously from a highly sub optimal arrangement. 30 years of shit to create a slightly better arrangement for Uk consumers. What a waste of time.
That all depends on the balance between time taken to get to a better position, how bad it'll be in the meantime and how much better one believes it'll be once achieved.

I personally believe mitigating steps could be taken that wouldn't result in as cataclysmic a prophecy as you mention, mainly because we import a lot but don't export a great deal (although yes we'd have to let some industries that are only propped up by protectionism die).

Likewise I don't think it'll take as long as the EU has taken because they have 28 completely different countries economically to think about each with a veto that would cause a deal to collapse. The UK is a single country with a much less diverse economy that would benefit far more from free trade than protectionism.

Finally I don't think the end result would be slightly better. I believe free trade is the only way not only to ensure long term growth but also to bring poor countries out of poverty. The protectionist racket the EU enforces costs lives in developing nations. My view is whilst the EU will endeavour to do deals with wealthy countries they are Trumpian in their failures to distribute that wealth via free trade. My view is being a world leader in this regard will result in countries in areas like South East Asia and Africa actually having disposable income that will create hundreds of thousands of highly paid jobs in the UK. Rather than trying in vain to protect non-viable jobs via tariffs for as long as possible.

Answering all of those questions are personal of course. Some people would see immediate pain as worth it. Others would see the immediate pain as cataclysmic.

What people can't deny is that the common external tariff currently implemented is very poor when looking in isolation at a country who imports heavily and exports lightly. Naturally whether this negative is outweighed by other positives is another personal judgment.