UK General Election - 12th December 2019 | Con 365, Lab 203, LD 11, SNP 48, Other 23 - Tory Majority of 80

How do you intend to vote in the 2019 General Election if eligible?

  • Brexit Party

    Votes: 30 4.3%
  • Conservatives

    Votes: 73 10.6%
  • DUP

    Votes: 5 0.7%
  • Green

    Votes: 23 3.3%
  • Labour

    Votes: 355 51.4%
  • Liberal Democrats

    Votes: 58 8.4%
  • Plaid Cymru

    Votes: 3 0.4%
  • Sinn Fein

    Votes: 9 1.3%
  • SNP

    Votes: 19 2.8%
  • UKIP

    Votes: 6 0.9%
  • Independent

    Votes: 1 0.1%
  • Other (BNP, Change UK, UUP and anyone else that I have forgotten)

    Votes: 10 1.4%
  • Not voting

    Votes: 57 8.3%
  • Undecided

    Votes: 41 5.9%

  • Total voters
    690
  • Poll closed .
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Badunk

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The UK is Conservative by default. They have always pandered to the 40% of the population that they need to win an election. With Brexit, they have decided to go for the Leave vote (which is technically 52% of the electorate) and their only challenger for leavers, the Brexit Party, have decided not to stand against them in half the seats. Even with the most lying of lying bastards in charge, it's the Tories' election to lose. They have oldies, gammons, Labour leavers, Brexity EDL UKIPpers and the mainstream media on their side. They will do next to nothing for anyone if they win, apart from allow their City mates to vacuum more of our money offshore and sell more of the nation's assets to foreign investors. Once Johnson gets in, he will be unaccountable and will decimate the country. These current Tories are the offspring of Thatcherism and they will make her era look like an hors d'oeuvre.
 

Mr Pigeon

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I'm hoping Jess Phillips... But I'm expecting a momentum mouthpiece instead... Wrong daily, pidcock, or burgon
Yeah, instead of the right stateperson it'll who whoever is grassroots enough, which just isn't going to work unless there's a mystery person who is top of both of those lists?
 

EwanI Ted

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I was focusing on the 8% because they're the people who actually matter. The people aware of ER are the people investing significant amounts of money (with half of them saying their investment was influenced by the relief and 28% essentially saying they wouldn't have invested without it.

The study needs to split it per £ of investment rather than per person. From an economic point or view a 55 year old retiree investing £10k in a candle shop and selling it for £100k 10 years later isn't the same as someone investing £1m and selling their business for £10m a decade later.

The former would have no idea about ER as they wouldn't be thinking about selling when they invested and the amount it'd save them even if they did would be tiny. The latter would absolutely be aware of ER and as your stats show it would influence half of those people and cause 3/10 of them not to invest that £1m (as it would for me and a few people I know).
Think you've got your maths wrong here. Its 28% of those who were influenced, not 28% of those who knew about the relief. Only half of those who knew about it were influenced by it. Therefore its actually only 14% of those who knew about the relief cited it as the reason they invested.

Also, your 3/10 figure (quite apart from actually being 1.5/10) has no basis. That data can't be extrapolated from the figures in the main report because its a proportion of an aggregate that includes people who said it only has "some" influence as well as those who said it had a "big influence". For your claim to be true, every single person who said it had any influence at all, even a tiny amount, would have had to have been prepared to walk away entirely from the investment in the absence of the relief. Since we can assume this not to be true, there's no way to identify just how many people would walk away. (It may be possible from the raw data at the end, I havent checked).

Add in the fact that Corbyn wants to increase CGT in line with IT also and an entrepreneur goes from paying under £500k on his £5m sale to paying near £2.5m. if you don't believe that would kill investment then I don't know what to tell you.
I dont know why you're bringing this into it, I havent expressed a view on those plans & I dont think Labour's plans are all that business friendly in any case.
 

Ultimate Grib

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Anyone here in the Wycombe constituency fed up with Tories and Brexit make sure you don’t waste your vote and let everyone know. Internal Labour polling shows it’s very tight there and Labour can flip the seat. They’ve sent a message out to all activists near the area this afternoon to campaign hard and spread the word. It would be a huge scalp if that thundercnut Steve Baker can be unseated. :drool:
 

sun_tzu

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Anyone here in the Wycombe constituency fed up with Tories and Brexit make sure you don’t waste your vote and let everyone know. Internal Labour polling shows it’s very tight there and Labour can flip the seat. They’ve sent a message out to all activists near the area this afternoon to campaign hard and spread the word. It would be a huge scalp if that thundercnut Steve Baker can be unseated. :drool:
Think steve Baker got around 50% of the vote last time
If conservatives perform at the bottom of their expected range on the you Gov mrp model and labour at the top then it just about comes into play
It would be a huge scalp and typically there are one or two shocks on an election night
Thay said I expect the thundercnut to be in the commons voting for a no deal exit in jan 2020
 

Ultimate Grib

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Think steve Baker got around 50% of the vote last time
If conservatives perform at the bottom of their expected range on the you Gov mrp model and labour at the top then it just about comes into play
It would be a huge scalp and typically there are one or two shocks on an election night
Thay said I expect the thundercnut to be in the commons voting for a no deal exit in jan 2020
The MRP model does not take into account tactical voting. It will be a massive factor in this proxy Brexit election especially in the London & South East.

MRP polling by YouGov showed that 22% of former Con voters in Wycombe are thinking of voting Lib Dem. If half switch to Labour instead in a tactical switch it's curtains.

Belive me in an election like this Momentum and Labor would not waste resources unnecessarily if they didn't think there was a chance of winning.

They believe it can be done with all the young people registered to vote and tactical voting in mind. Don't forget it was a 52-48 Remain seat as well.

There was a Bucks article after MRP polling came out as well: https://www.bucksfreepress.co.uk/ne...s-at-risk-losing-seat-tactical-voting-switch/

By the way, that Tory twat in Ashfield is being investigated for anti-semitism today :lol:
 

sun_tzu

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The MRP model does not take into account tactical voting. It will be a massive factor in this proxy Brexit election especially in the London & South East.

MRP polling by YouGov showed that 22% of former Con voters in Wycombe are thinking of voting Lib Dem. If half switch to Labour instead in a tactical switch it's curtains.

Belive me in an election like this Momentum and Labor would not waste resources unnecessarily if they didn't think there was a chance of winning.

They believe it can be done with all the young people registered to vote and tactical voting in mind. Don't forget it was a 52-48 Remain seat as well.

There was a Bucks article after MRP polling came out as well: https://www.bucksfreepress.co.uk/ne...s-at-risk-losing-seat-tactical-voting-switch/

By the way, that Tory twat in Ashfield is being investigated for anti-semitism today :lol:
Yeah ashfield really has 3 stunningly bad candidates
The conservative saying nuisance tenants should be used as forced labour, setting up a fake interview and now the anti semitism allegations
The labours candidates mum being arrested for assaulting a labour party volunteer who said how badly the campaign was going ... and then the candidate herself having the police called on her after trying to stop people posting leaflets
And an independent who used to be a liberal candidate until he was accused of child sex offences
Whoever wins will be fecking useless
As for wycombe it would be a huge scalp to get baker (as would redwood or raab)... personally I dont see it happening but I'd certainly be happy to see those 3 defeated
 

Cheesy

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Yeah ashfield really has 3 stunningly bad candidates
The conservative saying nuisance tenants should be used as forced labour, setting up a fake interview and now the anti semitism allegations
The labours candidates mum being arrested for assaulting a labour party volunteer who said how badly the campaign was going ... and then the candidate herself having the police called on her after trying to stop people posting leaflets
And an independent who used to be a liberal candidate until he was accused of child sex offences
Whoever wins will be fecking useless
As for wycombe it would be a huge scalp to get baker (as would redwood or raab)... personally I dont see it happening but I'd certainly be happy to see those 3 defeated
Apparently he also voted Leave.:lol:
 

sun_tzu

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Apparently he also voted Leave.:lol:
Yeah... He basically backs no deal brexit... It's a leave seat and essentially he is trying anything he can to win the votes... He's been full time in politics since he was about 25... Desperate to be an mp and add to the desperateness the fact that he just comes over as slimy and weird ... If I had to describe him in one word I'd go with repulsive but it really doesn't come close to going far enough

Whatever happens I'll have a shit MP... Well for a few weeks till my house sale goes through anyway
 

Ultimate Grib

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Yeah... He basically backs no deal brexit... It's a leave seat and essentially he is trying anything he can to win the votes... He's been full time in politics since he was about 25... Desperate to be an mp and add to the desperateness the fact that he just comes over as slimy and weird ... If I had to describe him in one word I'd go with repulsive but it really doesn't come close to going far enough

Whatever happens I'll have a shit MP... Well for a few weeks till my house sale goes through anyway
Better hope it isn't a Conservative majority, no deal looming will spook anyone buying...
 

Ultimate Grib

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Nah... I'm loaded... Anybody who can afford my house is loaded... We fat cats will do just fine in a conservative majority
If there's anything rich cnuts don't like doing is throwing money away... Why buy your house now when they can get it 10-20% cheaper after no deal Brexit :confused:
 

sun_tzu

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If there's anything rich cnuts don't like doing is throwing money away... Why buy your house now when they can get it 10-20% cheaper after no deal Brexit :confused:
Personally I don't think you will see a big hit on house prices in the short term.
Transition deal will be passed so I don't forsee a big shock to the market...Unless Corbyn wins in which case it will implode but again I don't see that happening
 

2cents

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https://medium.com/@sararoseofficia...ow-about-labour-and-antisemitism-649b5bc1e576

A fairly extensive look at the Labour anti-Semitism stuff. Not had a full read yet but seen a few things I wasn't aware of before which make for fairly grim reading.
These two cases happened in the same interview given to Lauren Booth on Press TV:

One of Corbyn’s numerous paid appearances on Iran’s Press TV (this one taking place seven months after the channel lost its Ofcom license for its role in the torture of a journalist) was with a convicted Hamas terrorist named Dr Abdul Aziz Umar who was given seven life sentences for helping to organise a Hamas suicide bombing in Jerusalem in 2003 that killed seven people. Umar provided a safe house for the terrorists and guarded the property while the bomber was fitted with a suicide belt. Umar was released a year prior to the conversation with Corbyn. This was as part of the controversial prisoner exchange arranged to release captured Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit. On the topic, Corbyn said: “You have to ask the question why they are in prison in the first place” and “I’m glad that those who were released were released.” He continued: “I met many of the brothers, including the brother who’s been speaking here when they came out of prison, when I was in Doha earlier this year.” The full Press TV segment can be viewed here...

...In 2012, during one of his now-infamous appearances on Iran’s Press TV, Corbyn baselessly suggests “the hand of Israel” is behind a terror attack on Egyptian police (part of which took place on Israeli soil), alleging that it had been a false-flag attack to “kill Egyptians” and destabilise the relationship between Palestine and the Egyptian government.
If you want a perfect example of how ideological hatred manifests itself in pure stupidity, the full interview (link above) is worth a watch. Specifically, Corbyn claims that the Hamas prisoners released in exchange for Gilad Shalit could not be guilty of the crimes they were convicted of, since Israel would never have released them if they were. And he expresses agreement with Booth when she argues that jihadists couldn’t be responsible for the Sinai attack since they would never attack fellow Muslims during Ramadan.

Corbyn also mentions a conference he previously attended in Qatar, where he met many released Hamas prisoners (“brothers” as he calls them). You can read about it in this thread:


I’d love to know at which point during this conference Corbyn urged all the Hamas attendees to pursue the path of peace, sit down to negotiate with their Israeli counterparts, and embrace the two-state solution.
 

Segment

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Hey there mate, not saying this poll is wrong, just worth noting that there were two released by ComRes!

First poll (6pt Tory Lead), commissioned by Remain United, didnt quiz respondents based on the candidates standing in their particular constituencies


Second Poll (8pt Tory Lead) was commissioned by the Sunday Telegraph
 

DavidDeSchmikes

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In the situation of a minority government (presumably by Corbyn), how long could it last for until another election?
 

sun_tzu

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In the situation of a minority government (presumably by Corbyn), how long could it last for until another election?
If it can survive long enough for a 2nd referendum (and I'm not sure it would... But perhaps if they forget about regegotiating and just go straight with Mays deal Vs remain they could last 6 months?) it would pretty much implode at that point

Personally I don't think labour would water down their budget enough to get it passed by other parties and there is no way libs would sign off on current labour spending plans

I wouldn't even be sure that the libs wouldnt back Boris if he offered a second referendum rather than join Corbyn and the SNP
 

sullydnl

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He's not wrong. Through the extended Brexit movement and to Johnson's leadership of the country, popular political rhetoric in the UK has become infected with racism. This has to be reflective of something happening in the UK, as well as having an influence in turn. Hard to root out once it takes hold.
 

DavidDeSchmikes

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If it can survive long enough for a 2nd referendum (and I'm not sure it would... But perhaps if they forget about regegotiating and just go straight with Mays deal Vs remain they could last 6 months?) it would pretty much implode at that point

Personally I don't think labour would water down their budget enough to get it passed by other parties and there is no way libs would sign off on current labour spending plans

I wouldn't even be sure that the libs wouldnt back Boris if he offered a second referendum rather than join Corbyn and the SNP
Thanks.

If the Libs got into a coalition with the Tories, it would be a win for Swinson, she gets a referendum (which I think Remain will win) and keeps Corbyn out of No. 10
 

FlawlessThaw

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Lib Dems do have a great record of winning referendums after joining up with a Tory coalition. I can see Swinson getting in bed with the Tories, but any hope of making major breaks in the following election would be dead in the water and I imagine Swinson will face a limited time as leader.
 

sun_tzu

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Thanks.

If the Libs got into a coalition with the Tories, it would be a win for Swinson, she gets a referendum (which I think Remain will win) and keeps Corbyn out of No. 10
Yeah for me I think swinson wants the referendum and would work with any party to get it
And if push came to shove and the conservatives had the choice of offering a second referendum with the Boris deal on it... Or allowing Corbyn in power and knowing he would try to put remain Vs brexit in name only as the options then I think no matter what they say now they would offer the second referendum
 

Pexbo

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Lib Dems do have a great record of winning referendums after joining up with a Tory coalition. I can see Swinson getting in bed with the Tories, but any hope of making major breaks in the following election would be dead in the water and I imagine Swinson will face a limited time as leader.
I think we are going to end up with Tory minority propped up by Lib Dem’s and Johnson will pull every trick in the book to slow walk us towards a no deal exit before a second ref can be organised. Swinson will be too proud to admit what is happening before it’s too late.
 
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