Scandi Red
Hates Music.
- Joined
- Sep 25, 2022
- Messages
- 8,972
I think pretty much every manager post Fergie has done a poor job with transfers, but who was the worst? I am aware that not all transfers are down to the manager, but that's a too boring discussion so let's just say that if a player was signed on a manager's watch then they are at least partly to blame.
Not all transfers should count as much as others, so I want to make a few rules to filter out these players. So for a player to be eligible for scoring they cannot fit any of these descriptions:
- Reserve goalkeepers
- Loan deals
- Players who are currently at the club but have been here for less than 2 seasons
- Youth players (players who are both younger than 20 and cost less than 10 million)
- However: a youth player who somehow becomes a success can be added to the positive points category (this has not happened, but it might happen for Heaven in the future)
In addition to this, I think a manager must have at least 5 eligible players based on these rules in order to have a large enough dataset to be judged. So Moyes, Rangnick and Amorim (for the time being) will not be judged now. That leaves the following players and managers for scoring:
Now we have 39 players more or less evenly distributed across 4 different post Fergie managers. And when this season ends another 6 or 7 players will be eligible for Ten Hag; De Ligt, Yoro, Ugarte, Zirkzee, Dorgu, Mazraoui and potentially Heaven (see the youth rules above).
----
Next we need a scoring system. I have decided to break it up into 4 categories:
Big success - Plus 2 points
Spoiler alert; Bruno is the only player in this category, but Amad is close. The reason this category exists is because big hits are really rare (evidently) and should thus be rewarded.
Success - Plus 1 point
The definition of success is fairly simple; did the player deliver up to expectations taking things like role, age, transfer fee and salary into account? This is not simply a matter of skill. Basically, were they a net positive? For instance: Pogba did quite well for us but I seriously considered putting him in the failure category when taking everything into account. In these instances I will put a (-) next to the player name.
Failure - Minus 1 point
Basically the opposite of the above. Any player who's close to the binary cutoff gets a (+) next to their name.
Unlucky - 0 points (i.e. no movement)
Some failed transfers is very hard to blame the manager for and I feel that these should not move the pendulum. An example of this are players who are clearly good enough but get destroyed by injuries. Another example are players who "everyone" thought would be a success but still failed spectacularly. All managers have at least one of these unlucky transfers.
---
I will spoiler a detailed breakdown for each manager below, but here is the scoreboard. Every manager essentially gets 3 scores: the actual score, the maximum score you could argue for (called "max) and the worst score you could argue for (called "min") :
Some observations:
1. Ole did better than I thought, although the plus 2 rule (i.e. Bruno and potentially Amad) saves his ass.
2. Mourinho's players were a nightmare to score. Half of them are neither clear successes nor failures.
3. Ten Hag did worse than I thought but his score is clearly subject to change, with nearly half his players not becoming eligible before the summer.
4. All in all Ole and Jose are clearly "better" than the other two, but the order is not exactly set.
There will obviously be a lot of subjectivity involved when trying to put players into different categories. I'm curious about how you would score the players using the same system. Was I too kind? Too harsh? Does the "unlucky" category deserve to exist (it doesn't change much for the final score though)?
Not all transfers should count as much as others, so I want to make a few rules to filter out these players. So for a player to be eligible for scoring they cannot fit any of these descriptions:
- Reserve goalkeepers
- Loan deals
- Players who are currently at the club but have been here for less than 2 seasons
- Youth players (players who are both younger than 20 and cost less than 10 million)
- However: a youth player who somehow becomes a success can be added to the positive points category (this has not happened, but it might happen for Heaven in the future)
In addition to this, I think a manager must have at least 5 eligible players based on these rules in order to have a large enough dataset to be judged. So Moyes, Rangnick and Amorim (for the time being) will not be judged now. That leaves the following players and managers for scoring:
LVG (10 players):
- Blind
- Rojo
- Herrera
- Shaw
- Di Maria
- Schweinsteiger
- Darmian
- Depay
- Schneiderlin
- Martial
Mourinho (10 players):
- Pogba
- Mkhitaryan
- Bailly
- Zlatan
- Lukaku
- Matic
- Lindelof
- Sanchez
- Fred
- Dalot
Ole (11 players):
- Maguire
- AWB
- James
- Bruno
- Van de Beek
- Amad
- Telles
- Cavani
- Sancho
- Varane
- Ronaldo
Ten Hag (8 players):
- Antony
- Casemiro
- Martinez
- Malacia
- Eriksen
- Højlund
- Mount
- Onana
- Blind
- Rojo
- Herrera
- Shaw
- Di Maria
- Schweinsteiger
- Darmian
- Depay
- Schneiderlin
- Martial
Mourinho (10 players):
- Pogba
- Mkhitaryan
- Bailly
- Zlatan
- Lukaku
- Matic
- Lindelof
- Sanchez
- Fred
- Dalot
Ole (11 players):
- Maguire
- AWB
- James
- Bruno
- Van de Beek
- Amad
- Telles
- Cavani
- Sancho
- Varane
- Ronaldo
Ten Hag (8 players):
- Antony
- Casemiro
- Martinez
- Malacia
- Eriksen
- Højlund
- Mount
- Onana
Now we have 39 players more or less evenly distributed across 4 different post Fergie managers. And when this season ends another 6 or 7 players will be eligible for Ten Hag; De Ligt, Yoro, Ugarte, Zirkzee, Dorgu, Mazraoui and potentially Heaven (see the youth rules above).
----
Next we need a scoring system. I have decided to break it up into 4 categories:
Big success - Plus 2 points
Spoiler alert; Bruno is the only player in this category, but Amad is close. The reason this category exists is because big hits are really rare (evidently) and should thus be rewarded.
Success - Plus 1 point
The definition of success is fairly simple; did the player deliver up to expectations taking things like role, age, transfer fee and salary into account? This is not simply a matter of skill. Basically, were they a net positive? For instance: Pogba did quite well for us but I seriously considered putting him in the failure category when taking everything into account. In these instances I will put a (-) next to the player name.
Failure - Minus 1 point
Basically the opposite of the above. Any player who's close to the binary cutoff gets a (+) next to their name.
Unlucky - 0 points (i.e. no movement)
Some failed transfers is very hard to blame the manager for and I feel that these should not move the pendulum. An example of this are players who are clearly good enough but get destroyed by injuries. Another example are players who "everyone" thought would be a success but still failed spectacularly. All managers have at least one of these unlucky transfers.
---
I will spoiler a detailed breakdown for each manager below, but here is the scoreboard. Every manager essentially gets 3 scores: the actual score, the maximum score you could argue for (called "max) and the worst score you could argue for (called "min") :
Tie breakers:
- Most big successes
- Most successes
- Most unlucky
- Highest max
- Highest min
- Most big successes
- Most successes
- Most unlucky
- Highest max
- Highest min
| Score | |
| 1. Ole | 0 (max +1, min -2) |
| 2. Mourinho | -1 (max +1, min -3) |
| 3. Van Gaal | -3 (max -2, min -4) |
| 4. Ten Hag | -3 (max -2, min -5) |
Some observations:
1. Ole did better than I thought, although the plus 2 rule (i.e. Bruno and potentially Amad) saves his ass.
2. Mourinho's players were a nightmare to score. Half of them are neither clear successes nor failures.
3. Ten Hag did worse than I thought but his score is clearly subject to change, with nearly half his players not becoming eligible before the summer.
4. All in all Ole and Jose are clearly "better" than the other two, but the order is not exactly set.
There will obviously be a lot of subjectivity involved when trying to put players into different categories. I'm curious about how you would score the players using the same system. Was I too kind? Too harsh? Does the "unlucky" category deserve to exist (it doesn't change much for the final score though)?
Success (3):
- Shaw
- Herrera
- Blind (-)
Failure (6):
- Martial (+)
- Schweinsteiger
- Darmian
- Depay
- Schneiderlin
- Rojo
Unlucky (1):
- Di Maria
- Shaw
- Herrera
- Blind (-)
Failure (6):
- Martial (+)
- Schweinsteiger
- Darmian
- Depay
- Schneiderlin
- Rojo
Unlucky (1):
- Di Maria
Success (4):
- Zlatan
- Matic
- Pogba (-)
- Dalot (-)
Failure (5):
- Fred (+)
- Lukaku (+)
- Mkhitaryan
- Lindelof
- Bailly
Unlucky (1):
- Sanchez
- Zlatan
- Matic
- Pogba (-)
- Dalot (-)
Failure (5):
- Fred (+)
- Lukaku (+)
- Mkhitaryan
- Lindelof
- Bailly
Unlucky (1):
- Sanchez
Big success (1):
- Bruno
Success (3):
- Amad (+)
- Cavani
- Maguire (-)
Failure (5):
- Ronaldo
- AWB
- Van de Beek
- Telles
- James
Unlucky (2):
- Sancho
- Varane
- Bruno
Success (3):
- Amad (+)
- Cavani
- Maguire (-)
Failure (5):
- Ronaldo
- AWB
- Van de Beek
- Telles
- James
Unlucky (2):
- Sancho
- Varane
Success (2):
- Eriksen (-)
- Casemiro (-)
Failure (5):
- Mount (+, could be placed in all categories, honestly)
- Malacia
- Højlund
- Onana
- Antony
Unlucky (1):
- Martinez
- Eriksen (-)
- Casemiro (-)
Failure (5):
- Mount (+, could be placed in all categories, honestly)
- Malacia
- Højlund
- Onana
- Antony
Unlucky (1):
- Martinez
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