United Left in the Dust on Data Analytics, There is Hope Though

The Red Thinker

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It's a long un'. I thank you for your patience.

Ever since Ed Woodward took over the club, it's been clear that the Manchester United football operation has been blunted. I use the word 'blunted', because it wasn't that money hasn't been invested into the team, rather the callousness of it. And one major example where sharp investment was replaced with blunt extravagance is the fact that, while United went around trying to build a Galacticos of our own in the early and mid 2010's, other teams in the premier league latched on to Data Analytics.

Data Science is different from Data Analytics. While Data science is good in providing answers to complicated problems, Data analytics is essentially the study of Big Data and giving you precise trends or insights. You might have heard of Moneyball, the 2011 Brad Pitt movie about a baseball coach who used the study of Big Data to create a historic baseball team in 2002. He bought players whom others considered useless. His own chief scout quit in protest of his actions. But he used a Data Analyst to create a machine with precise cogs. Players who fit the system so perfectly that as a whole they were incredible. So much so, they broke a 96 year old record for most consecutive wins in a season in the American League - 20. Remarkable considering they were odds on to be the worst team in the league. The team was the Oakland Athletics and the coach, Billy Beane.

The Athletics or the A's as their colloquially called, win the American League West title, but sadly do not go on to win it all. In fact they don't even reach the World Series. Still it was a remarkable run and Billy Beane's run impressed one man so much, that he was flown to Boston and chauffeur driven to Fenway Park. A certain John W Henry offered Billy Beane the biggest managerial contract in baseball history. Billy Beane turned the offer down and went on to achieve little despite his breakthrough with Data Analytics. But, the John W Henry, owner of the Boston Red Sox and Fenway Sports, used Data Analytics to craft the next Red Sox team. Two years later, in 2004, the Boston Red Sox won their first title in 86 years. The Curse of the Bambino was broken.

A decade later, after Fenway Sports took control of another legacy sporting powerhouse, Liverpool, John Henry worked his magic again after he appointed Jurgen Klopp. Liverpool began a data analytics operation that is now considered one the very best in football. This New York Times article from early 2019 shed some light on how the operation runs. Every metric is considered. Every piece of data is crunched. Historical to annotative to incoming new data. BIG DATA - crunched - accurate information. It goes to prove that Liverpool's relative fitness may not just be because they're lucky with injuries. But because the data showed that these players are largely injury free. All the players fit into filters of what Jurgen Klopp needs from players. He is in constant communication with his data analytics team to build and monitor even current players. Now they are progressing towards a level where they are getting unknown geniuses in the world of data analytics, who had nothing to do with football data analytics, and bringing them into the fold. People like William Spearman. They know what they're on about and it will be interesting to see how Takumi Minamino fares to further test this theory. Though it does prove how Klopp found world beaters in Robertson, Wijnaldum, VVD to name a few.

Now... where is Manchester United in all this you may be wondering. After Leicester have a solid Analytics game, and so does Chelsea. Leicester's recent comeback was not predicted, but the team they have assembled now looks nothing like the one that won in 2016, and this team almost finished top 4. Manchester United currently use transfer database program that is vast and can collect Big Data and present some ideas. We have Data Scientists who do their job well. But we do not have a data analytics team. It is shocking that a club the size of Manchester United missed the boat, in their thrall for signing megastars as Woodward designed to do in the 2010s. Data Analysis is not just influential in recruitment but performance as well, and the way certain teams 'over perform' may shock some, but to those in the know, it's the data talking.

However, there is change in sight. Last year, Manchester United hired Drew Meredith to be our top performance analyst. St Pauli didn't have the tools to implement his level of performance but his work is well recognised. Another encouraging sign is the fact that United have finally decided to build a Data Specialists Wing. This recruitment being led by John Murtough. The man who has led a revolution of our youth department. Interestingly, he is a legacy of one David Moyes. He worked as a sports scientist for Moyes and joined the club around the time Moyes became United boss.

The signs are good, we are moving forward in the right areas. There has been a clear change of path in the way we conduct our footballing business since Jose's departure. But the fact remains that the biggest club in the world is only building it's Data specialist wing in 2020, while sporting teams have been using it for a decade.
 
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Classical Mechanic

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This has been discussed before. It's a credit to Ole that he helped bring us out of the dark ages in this regards. Mourinho isn't really that interested in data. Apparently the Spurs data team were stunned when he said he wasn't interested in any training performance data.
 

Fosu-Mens

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The signs are good, we are moving forward in the right areas. There has been a clear change of path in the way we conduct our footballing business since Jose's departure. But the fact remains that the biggest club in the world is only building it's Data specialist wing in 2020, while sporting teams have been using it for a decade.
Dataanalytics not going to help much when the overall approach to football, especially in a league format, is unlikely to be succesful.
 

Baneofthegame

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While data analytics are definitely helpful and can shape a team, if you rely solely on them you end up with the Houston Rockets.
 

The Red Thinker

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Dataanalytics not going to help much when the overall approach to football, especially in a league format, is unlikely to be succesful.
Care to elaborate? Data analytics and approach to football are intrinsically linked.

While data analytics are definitely helpful and can shape a team, if you rely solely on them you end up with the Houston Rockets.
True, but not having one is not good either.
 

Murder on Zidane's Floor

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All of this stuff is important but does it guarantee success? No. If teams all start having access to the same data, they will just come to similar conclusions and fight for the same players/take the same direction. It will come down to the human interpretation of the data like it does now but you'll be spending so much time considering data that you will miss glaringly obvious things in my humble and non-educated opinion.

Sports like football cannot be broken down into mathematics. That's the beauty of the game.
 

Champ

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My understanding was that United DID have data analysts just not data scientists,
So we have people taking stats etc, but we don't have essentially people to take this data and process it for future benefits, ie, Data scientists.
This is what's been created back at the end of 2019 and what Murtough took on in March.

Just look at Barca though, they are proof that if you trust the data too much it explodes in your face.
This is why a happy medium of data and human character has to be used. Only that way do you get the best option. This is what United and in particular Ole is doing.
 

r3idy

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All of this stuff is important but does it guarantee success? No. If teams all start having access to the same data, they will just come to similar conclusions and fight for the same players/take the same direction. It will come down to the human interpretation of the data like it does now but you'll be spending so much time considering data that you will miss glaringly obvious things in my humble and non-educated opinion.

Sports like football cannot be broken down into mathematics. That's the beauty of the game.
It doesn't guarantee success at all and I don't believe it is there as a silver bullet to any problem. If anything it is there to complement the process than replace.

Data analytics or big data analytics is nothing new in sport. Sir Clive Woodward used it very successfully for the RFU as did team Sky when they was the dominant cycling team. I cant find the article but it's well worth reading about Team Sky on how they looked at the 1% rule. i.e. if you can improve ten things by 1% it is more efficient and effective than trying to improve one thing by 10%. As a result the data analytics complemented work on diet, training, injury, recovery and performance.

The point about Ole introducing this was made last year and it is encouraging to see the club stick with it.
 

The Red Thinker

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It doesn't guarantee success at all and I don't believe it is there as a silver bullet to any problem. If anything it is there to complement the process than replace.

Data analytics or big data analytics is nothing new in sport. Sir Clive Woodward used it very successfully for the RFU as did team Sky when they was the dominant cycling team. I cant find the article but it's well worth reading about Team Sky on how they looked at the 1% rule. i.e. if you can improve ten things by 1% it is more efficient and effective than trying to improve one thing by 10%. As a result the data analytics complemented work on diet, training, injury, recovery and performance.

The point about Ole introducing this was made last year and it is encouraging to see the club stick with it.
Exactly. It's not about data the being guarantor of success. It's that we are only using it as well as others YEARS after everyone else. It is clearly an important tool which adds to the decision making.
 

Alexit

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This might play an important role but as has already been pointed out, this is not to be seen as a guarantor of success (just another tool to attain and maintain it).

We can be fooled by data (especially at the quantity and frequency with which it is produced). This goes for fans and data scientists alike. We can end up looking at irrelevant stats, trends, and patterns. It can also lead to making the wrong decisions. (Albeit a more expensive and fancy way of doing so.)

It's important that we balance all of this data with what it can't do.
 

TwoSheds

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Dataanalytics not going to help much when the overall approach to football, especially in a league format, is unlikely to be succesful.
Go on then, enlighten us, what is this approach to football that doesn't work in the league?
 

Fosu-Mens

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Care to elaborate? Data analytics and approach to football are intrinsically linked.
Yes, they are. But if you say we are on the right path in regards to analytics, why are we buying players not able to pass the ball?
It is fairly obvious that the trend in world football is that high press, high possession and structured attack is what is going to be successfull for the coming years(Bayern, City and Liverpool) because it creates a lot of chances. And having players able to operate in multiple roles when in the final third and in the build up, this allows for positional switches and complex movement and potentially even more chances. And we are buying players that are not suited to this style: Maguire - High press and high line... AWB - Any team that wants to dominate games. DDG - Not really comfortable playing in a sweeper role but gets a contract making him impossible to sell...

So, if the club used data analytics correctly, they could easily see that dominating games through possession and a high press is what is most likely to be successful long term. But we buy players not suited to this, expensive players on big contracts... So, yes we have started using analytics, but is the basis(AKA the red line/how we should play to be likely to achieve success) for how we use it correct?

And do we need analytics to find the likes of Bruno, DvdB, Maguire and AWB?
 

Samid

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The innovation culture has been non-existent at this club for as long as I've been following it. Never mind being ahead of the curve, we don't even catch up on trends other clubs are setting. United joined twitter in 2012, all other top clubs joined 3-4 years before us. Youtube channel was launched fairly recently despite the popularity and the reach of the plattform being well-known for at least a decade. Website was neglected for 15+ years and last time I checked it still wasn't particularly user friendly. Women's team, founded in 2018. If it wasn't for the media scrutiny three or so years ago I doubt the team would have been established as 'early' as 2018. 6 year contract to Moyes was proof how out of touch we were with modern football.

Analytics are no different. It's baffling how poor our recruitment has been. And it's even more mind boggling how some figures at our club take pride in their lousy work and try to present themselves as some sort of masters of innovation. "We scouted 800 right backs and the best one we could find cost 50m and doesn't even seem to have basic football skills."
 

Nickelodeon

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It's careless to suggest that data analytics doesn't work in sport etc. It's just about finding the right combination of statistics. Football has earlier relied on pure eye test and basic stats like goals, clean sheets etc. But now with huge amount of data being captured, there's a tendency to over-complicate with meaningless statistics.

The smartest will be those who don't just rely on data, but also know the importance for each metric and the correlation it has with on-pitch performance. Having worked in a similar field, I know that many of these projection models rely on heavy assumptions which may work in the corporate world because they are not as result-centric as football clubs.

Hence, any major club without proper data analytics is definitely run by dinosaurs but having it doesn't guarantee success. You also need a smart person (Manager/DoF/CEO) who can balance the transition between traditional scouting and data.
 

led_scholes

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Data are fine but you don't need data analysts to understand that Fellaini is a poor player, that Di Maria will fail if you he doesn't want to come here, that Jones should not have his contract renewed etc. On the other hand data can save you from buying players like Lindelof. Eventually, we seem to fail both in common sense and in data analytics.

I dont know what is happening exactly behind the scenes but seeing our obsession with Sancho makes me wonder; are we completely unable to find an alternative?
 

Murder on Zidane's Floor

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It doesn't guarantee success at all and I don't believe it is there as a silver bullet to any problem. If anything it is there to complement the process than replace.

Data analytics or big data analytics is nothing new in sport. Sir Clive Woodward used it very successfully for the RFU as did team Sky when they was the dominant cycling team. I cant find the article but it's well worth reading about Team Sky on how they looked at the 1% rule. i.e. if you can improve ten things by 1% it is more efficient and effective than trying to improve one thing by 10%. As a result the data analytics complemented work on diet, training, injury, recovery and performance.

The point about Ole introducing this was made last year and it is encouraging to see the club stick with it.
Same with formula1, it you can get a 100th of a second per lap on several components, then that adds up.
 

r3idy

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Same with formula1, it you can get a 100th of a second per lap on several components, then that adds up.
It is probably why the idea of Liverpool getting a throw in coach is scoffed at but from a Big Data point of view it makes perfect sense. With the 'Throw in Coach' being the icing on the cake.

- How can we defend throw in's in our own half / opposition half
- Do we create more chances from throw ins on the left or the right
- When do we concede throw ins, how many goals are we conceding indirectly from a throw in situation
- Are players getting injured because of poor throw in technique
 

Gandalf Greyhame

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I'm a Data Scientist by profession, and I don't think the OP understands the difference between data science and data analytics.

Also, the approach is not a magic wand. While understanding patterns in data and building insightful models, both predictive abs exploratory, can have a lot of potential - whether or not you tap into it depends on broader questions like what you're looking for, what sort of data you choose, how you crunch it, where it fits into a holistic picture and how effective it can be in reality as compared to other means.
 

The Red Thinker

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I'm a Data Scientist by profession, and I don't think the OP understands the difference between data science and data analytics.

Also, the approach is not a magic wand. While understanding patterns in data and building insightful models, both predictive abs exploratory, can have a lot of potential - whether or not you tap into it depends on broader questions like what you're looking for, what sort of data you choose, how you crunch it, where it fits into a holistic picture and how effective it can be in reality as compared to other means.
I guess you could say that based on what I've written as I only glossed over the difference itself. I do acutely understand the difference and I can see what I've written is flawed. I have made the change. Data analysts study big data to evince trends and insights, Data scientists create mathematical models to tackle complex problems. I should have done your profession more justice!
 

TheLord

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I am not a data scientist, but I do some statistics and analysis.
I think there are too many variables in football that determine the success of a team. There are so many important human factors that make it virtually impossible for current technology to completely objectify everything in football. It will be helpful to guide certain things like, who is the better buy for United from a purely economic sense - Benezema or Aubameyang? But I don't think the technology is evolved enough to accurately answer questions like whether Bale is a good buy for Spurs ; there are just too many variables that determine his success at Spurs including his love for golf, which is almost impossible to accurately analyse.

P.S. This thread is a breath of fresh change from the usual Mourinho and Ed bashing and Pogba mollycoddling.
 
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Himannv

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Good post. Back in 2014 I was quite enthralled by a Complex Event Processor tool after watching the following demo:


However, the above tool is used to analyze playing data, so a tool used to identify transfer targets is a novel idea to me.

As has been pointed out it all depends on what you want to do with the data I guess.
 

adexkola

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I am not a data scientist, but I do some statistics and analysis.
I think there are too many variables in football that determine the success of a team. There are so many important human factors that make it virtually impossible for current technology to completely objectify everything in football. It will be helpful to guide certain things like, who is the better buy for United from a purely economic sense - Benezema or Aubameyang? But I don't think the technology is evolved enough to accurately answer questions like whether Bale is a good buy for Spurs ; there are just too many variables that determine his success at Spurs including his love for golf, which is almost impossible to accurately analyse.

P.S. This thread is a breath of fresh change from the usual Mourinho and Ed bashing and Pogba mollycoddling.
Wait until you see the numbers of variables being modeled in more complex stochastic systems than a football game lasting for 90 minutes...

I don't think we will ever be able to perfectly predict with 100% the outcome of a game or season, but even incremental steps in understanding how your actions on and off the pitch influence your chance of success help.