We'll probably be 12th if we lose to Newcastle

[rcoobc]

I ran 10,000 simulations in excel, and have found that on average, we'll lose 2 places if we lose to Newcastle

There are 7 teams below us that could end up ahead of us if we lose to Newcastle

Burnley: 9 points, +1GD, home to Everton
Sheffield Utd: 8 points, 0GD, away to Watford
Wolves: 7 points, -2GD, away to Man City
Southampton: 7 points, -2GD, away to Chelsea
Everton: 7 points, -6 GD, away to Burnley
Brighton, 6 points, -5 GD, home to Spurs
Norwich City: 6 points, -5 GD, home to Villa

(we sit on 9 points)

Theoretically, if we lose really really badly against Newcastle and Wolves, Southampton, Everton, Brighton, and Norwich all win, (and Sheffield get a draw, and Burnley don't lose too badly), then we could fall as far as 17th which would be... interesting.

But the good news is we'll probably only fall two or three places to 12th or 13th.

So, there is that.

(Used Oddschecker odds to simulate 70,000 matches)

 

[Samid]

Could you run 10,000 more simulations just to be on the safer side with the margin of error?

 

[Skills]

And that's our lowest position after X games since when?

Which incredible are we going to break this weekend?

 

[FireballXL5]

It'll be interesting/depressing to see where we are at the end of November. At the current rate we'll be hovering around the drop zone.

 

[ColvaleGoa]

Are we supposed to be surprised by this?
Away loss is now part and parcel of supporting United. We have fallen that far,,but that is the charm of being a supporter ,,till Kick off its the hope that kills after Kick off its the team that kills us.!

Let's just try and enjoy this rollercoaster,,it will get better in 2-3 years!

 

[El-Manos]

If we lose to Newcastle Ole should walk to be quite honest.

 

[rcoobc]

Could you run 10,000 more simulations just to be on the safer side with the margin of error?

Same thing again.

Damn it.

 

[el3mel]

Newcastle are 19th in the table. By all means this should be a win even if we are shite. No excuses. Not winning this will be unacceptable.

 

[1988]

In all honesty I could see us dropping pretty close to the relegation zone if our form doesn't improve drastically. Not saying we will be relegated.

 

[Vidyoyo]

I had a dream last night that we played Chelsea and Kurt Zouma scored 6 past us. I couldn't believe my eyes at the time, we were dropping fast into the relegation zone.

12th looks rosy now.

 

[Sky1981]

Newcastle are 19th in the table. By all means this should be a win even if we are shite. No excuses. Not winning this will be unacceptable.

If you based that because of the league position, remember we cant beat rochdale in 90 minutes. 20 spot lower than newcastle

 

[Sterling Archer]

Can you simulate for the next five games. How bad is going to get.

 

[Amerifan]

Monte Carlo. Gotta love it.

If Sheffield, Brighton, or Norwich are above us then we’re in real trouble. Those are barely PL level sides.

 

[Ish]

Newcastle are 19th in the table. By all means this should be a win even if we are shite. No excuses. Not winning this will be unacceptable.

But our players are shite....haven’t you heard?

 

[el3mel]

But our players are shite....haven’t you heard?

Well they sure are. What is that related to my post? What I'm saying that there are still some winnable even when you are shite and this should be one of them.

 

[Ish]

Well they sure are. What is that related to my post? What I'm saying that there are still some winnable even when you are shite and this should be one of them.

Nah I was just referencing some who seemingly doesn’t want to lay any blame or responsibility on the manager.

But yeah, an away win would be great. We can live in hope

 

[el3mel]

Nah I was just referencing some who seemingly doesn’t want to lay any blame or responsibility on the manager.

Oh OK. My opinion on our clueless manage is known though.

 

[Ish]

Oh OK. My opinion on our clueless manage is known though.

Hahaha I know . Its very much known.

 

[Shark]

Are we supposed to be surprised by this?
Away loss is now part and parcel of supporting United. We have fallen that far,,but that is the charm of being a supporter ,,till Kick off its the hope that kills after Kick off its the team that kills us.!

Let's just try and enjoy this rollercoaster,,it will get better in 2-3 years!

We are now in the Roy Hodgson stage of Liveroool’s decline. It doesn’t get any more grim.

 

[AlwaysRed66]

Brighton seem to have already caught us on points, having nearly beaten hapless Spurs.

 

[RedGib]

What if we win?

 

[AlwaysRed66]

What if we win?

We will paper over the cracks for a few weeks, just as with Mourinho, until the next fiasco occurred in the next few games.

 

[RedGib]

We will paper over the cracks for a few weeks, just as with Mourinho, until the next fiasco occurred in the next few games.

Good answer....can’t argue with that

 

[Sir Scott McToMinay]

What if we win?

Someone will open up a thread about how this is a sure sign we’re turning things around, was surprised there wasn’t one after the Astana win.

 

[Stacks]

8 games is nothing to panic over. They used to not post the table until 10 games in during the old days. Only after 10 games does shit get real in that train of thought. We'll see where we are after 12 and then I'll start to consider it an emergency. We are always 2 wins away from a top 4 place at this current league

 

[rcoobc]

What if we win?

Yeah, but what are the chances of that happening

 

[Class of 63]

You've got to be desperate for something to moan about if you pay too much attention to League positions before Christmas.

 

[Buster15]

Could you run 10,000 more simulations just to be on the safer side with the margin of error?

Cracking response.

 

[Banana Republic]

Sheff Utd drawing away at Watford has stopped us dropping to 12th place today.
We've only dropped to 11th instead.
If we lose to Newcastle, we'll be in 11th to 13th spot, depending on other results.
Southampton home win against Chelsea?
Wolves beating City...not likely.
So it's 11th or 12th place by tomorrow evening.
A draw, it's 11th.
A win gets us back into the chasing crowd.

 

[McGrathsipan]

If we lose to Newcastle Ole should walk to be quite honest.

Agree with that but he wont.

And I fully expect us to lose.

Then get mauled by Liverpool

 

[TommiHelm]

The crazy thing is that we could be 5th if we win. This season will probably be the easiest 4th place ever, and we'll still somehow screw it up.

 

[Judas]

You've got to be desperate for something to moan about if you pay too much attention to League positions before Christmas.

What about dreadful performances? Or is it too early to take notice of them too?

 

[Class of 63]

What about dreadful performances? Or is it too early to take notice of them too?

As long as you're starting from the beginning of this season, fine

It's only fair to point out some of best results from the glory years were also dreadful performances.

 

[Sandikan]

We're going to smash them....

1-0

 

[Tom Cato]

Imagine if we win 1-0, or 2-1. the Caf loyal will still be massively unhappy.

 

[Walters_19_MuFc]

What if we win?

He/she probably didn't think of that.

 

[ayushreddevil9]

So?

 

[Casanova85]

We must defeat the geordie and get a draw at OT vs the scousers.

Huge task ahead.

 

[Denis79]

Someone will open up a thread about how this is a sure sign we’re turning things around, was surprised there wasn’t one after the Astana win.

 

[RedCurry]

For many years I’ve been trying to get myself to watch Championship football. Maybe next year I will finally have to.