We'll probably be 12th if we lose to Newcastle

tenpoless

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I ran 10,000 simulations in excel, and have found that on average, we'll lose 2 places if we lose to Newcastle

There are 7 teams below us that could end up ahead of us if we lose to Newcastle

Burnley: 9 points, +1GD, home to Everton
Sheffield Utd: 8 points, 0GD, away to Watford
Wolves: 7 points, -2GD, away to Man City
Southampton: 7 points, -2GD, away to Chelsea
Everton: 7 points, -6 GD, away to Burnley
Brighton, 6 points, -5 GD, home to Spurs
Norwich City: 6 points, -5 GD, home to Villa

(we sit on 9 points)

Theoretically, if we lose really really badly against Newcastle and Wolves, Southampton, Everton, Brighton, and Norwich all win, (and Sheffield get a draw, and Burnley don't lose too badly), then we could fall as far as 17th which would be... interesting.

But the good news is we'll probably only fall two or three places to 12th or 13th.

So, there is that.

(Used Oddschecker odds to simulate 70,000 matches)
Why are you doing this to yourself?
 

Yakuza_devils

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Are we supposed to be surprised?

This is exactly what many fans expected before the season even started with a rookie manager and shit transfer window. Thanks to Ed!
 

prateik

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We'll probably be above Chelsea and Spurs if we beat Newcastle.
 

croadyman

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Saw a post on Facebook about tickets available for this game on our official site. Things must be bad if that is happening for an away game
 

Casanova85

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Ole is not a great manager, but it has to be said that the lack of fitness-too many injuries is already ruining a thin squad. Reeks of 9th in May.
 

Traub

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For many years I’ve been trying to get myself to watch Championship football. Maybe next year I will finally have to.
TV rights for the championship will go through the roof next season. Maybe it's best for the good of football.
 

Blades1889

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Lose today and you'll be in a mid table battle with us ;)
 

DevilRed

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Crazy thing is in this season of feckery, we still actually have a shot at top 4 with the incompetence of the london teams.

We are still only 5 points off top four. Its shaping up to be one of those seasons. :(
 

sunama

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I ran 10,000 simulations in excel, and have found that on average, we'll lose 2 places if we lose to Newcastle
Could you run 10,000 more simulations just to be on the safer side with the margin of error?
:lol:

Someone will open up a thread about how this is a sure sign we’re turning things around, was surprised there wasn’t one after the Astana win.
Well, we were unable to beat the mighty Newcastle.
 

sunama

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Crazy thing is in this season of feckery, we still actually have a shot at top 4 with the incompetence of the london teams.

We are still only 5 points off top four. Its shaping up to be one of those seasons. :(
Give it a rest man. We are not going to win the title, the CL, EL or top 4.
We need to focus on finishing in the top half of the table and take each game, one at a time.
 

Romez

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Crazy thing is in this season of feckery, we still actually have a shot at top 4 with the incompetence of the london teams.

We are still only 5 points off top four. Its shaping up to be one of those seasons. :(
We don’t.

There’s not enough goals in this squad and by the time we can do anything about it (January) we’ll be 20 plus points off the top 4 languishing in the bottom half.
 

DevilRed

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We don’t.

There’s not enough goals in this squad and by the time we can do anything about it (January) we’ll be 20 plus points off the top 4 languishing in the bottom half.
Give it a rest man. We are not going to win the title, the CL, EL or top 4.
We need to focus on finishing in the top half of the table and take each game, one at a time.
Am I crazy to still hold the faintest hope that if this team can go from incredible football and 9-10 wins on the trot, to being absolutely rubbish, then they can also go back to being incredible again?

Maybe it really is down to injuries? If we somehow come up with a miracle next few months in which none of our key players get injured?

Alright. Someone just tell me its a pipe dream :(