This seems rather bereft of common sense.
Westminster Politics
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik and Imran hold a long overdue conversation about United's awful league form with 1 win in 7. They discuss a disappointing draw at Bournemouth, a not so disappointing draw against Liverpool and a crushing defeat at Chelsea - Is time nearly over for Erik Ten Hag?
Then in a special second half of the pod, Nik welcomes Natalie ( https://twitter.com/natalie_17) to discuss the fortunes of Manchester United Women as they booked a place in the FA Cup Final after a historic first ever win vs. Chelsea.
Short term memories in that case because they were having to create their own PPE just 12 months ago, and in return received 1% pay rise as a reward.
Social class is officially categorised and Labour have been losing ground in the C, D and E groups for years. i.e the working classes and their traditional voter base.
This is a big part of what Labour are reaping up here for sure. Ironically, even good things like investment in education in poorer areas made things worse in some ways. It wasn't matched with investment in infrastructure and jobs in those areas, so they started haemorrhaging bright, young people moving to the cities for better opportunities. So whilst the money went into schools in places like Hartlepool, the benefit of the education it paid for went with the kids to London/Manchester etc. Again, ironically, it's also one of the reasons the demographics of these areas are much friendlier to the Tories these days, it created a generation of people from working class backgrounds who could see the value of a Labour government but gave them no choice but to take their votes to the cities.
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There are other, older, (in my view, more instructive) ways of looking at class.
Voting differences between those officially designated classes aren't nearly as wide as differences between young/old or retired/non-retired.
In 2017, Labour's worst class (AB) is -8. Their best (DE) is +3. A 11 point gap. In 2019, Labour's worst class was C2 (-15) and best was C1 (-9). A 6-point gap. There just isn't much explanatory power here for 2 reasons - the largest gap is between C1 and C2, the 2 classes closest on this official categorisation, and the identity of which "class" group does best for which party changes so completely between elections. It shows there are other underlying factors at work.
By contrast, 2017 Labour is - 39 among retirees and +45 among students. A 84-point gap. In 2019, Labour is -45 among retirees and +39 among students, another 84 point gap. Not just are the margins so much bigger, the identity of the group most loyal to a given party is also constant. You will get similar results with retirees vs workers or young vs old.
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That can’t be, surely, not with Lozza Fox splitting off some of their vote?
If it is true, then it’s time for a sequel - “The Strange Death of Labour England”.
The problem with using age is that it changes. The 20 year old Labour leaning voter will be a 50 year Conservative one day. They might have a paid off house and a pension by then, but they are still working class at heart. Labour has lost the ability to keep those voters as they age because they feel betrayed by what the party has become.
Given the absolute catastrophe his campaign has been that's baffling
When will the mayor race be called?
Aiming for tomorrow I believe.
Thanks.
Will anyone claim a late night ballot dump caused the victory of a certain candidate?
sure, age changes, my belief is that it changes you through that very house and pension (which *do* affect the "working class heart").
the question is if the tories can generate enough homeowners at sufficiently early ages to keep winning elections. david cameron understood this: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...e-labour-voters-nick-clegg-says-a7223796.html
now, if class is a matter of capital and ownership rather than "heart", then these trends make a lot more sense.
Either I'm completely out of touch with the rest of the UK but, especially with healthcare workers saying that they will now vote Tory, what are the chances that years from now we'll discover that we had rigged elections in our country?
I know, I know. It's obviously bullshit but I just can't fathom why some of these groups, healthcare workers in particular, would vote Tory. Not voting Labour, fair enough, but turning Blue?!
I know, I know. It's obviously bullshit but I just can't fathom why some of these groups, healthcare workers in particular, would vote Tory. Not voting Labour, fair enough, but turning Blue?!
Well, so far the SNP have increased their majority by two seats. Which is surprising since the British press have spent the whole week and yesterday night saying that an SNP majority was impossible. Funny that.
*Waits for Tory surge*
*Waits for Tory surge*
This isn't true at all, there all kinds of statistics that show that wealth inequality has increase over that period. I can't be bothered to get them for you as I'm pretty ill right now, but I can look them up for you in a day or two.
Just off the top of my head, the % share of money earned by the richest has accelerated, and you have statistics showing how the young have less earnings at every age point up to 40 than those in the previous 2-3 generations.
The proportion of 25-35 year olds living at home was like 25% in the 60s, it rose to 50%+ last year for the first time since the great depression.
It's not really a big claim when incomes haven't really changed much, but house prices have accelerated rapidly and stock markets done so likewise due to loose monetary policy. Those with assets have gotten severely rich and those without have not.
In light of these results and the ones from the last GE, it is starting to look a bit like Labour might be finished in England.
Clear divide between England and Scotland, strongly pointing towards independence, too (which I suppose was always inevitable following the Brexit result).
Not sure how I feel about spending the rest of my days in a much diminished, and very blue, 'United Kingdom of England and Wales'.
Clear divide between England and Scotland, strongly pointing towards independence, too (which I suppose was always inevitable following the Brexit result).
Not sure how I feel about spending the rest of my days in a much diminished, and very blue, 'United Kingdom of England and Wales'.
probably been posted already but worth a repost:
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Accurate.
new bourgeoisie just dropped
What exactly does 'woke' mean?
Also why is one group 'obsessed' with identity, but the call to focus on 'the working class' (there's overlap btw) isn't an obsession with identity?
I bet he cannot explain what he means. Just thrown a bunch of words around.
She's spot on
He knows exactly what he means, he's just too pussy to say it with his chest, so he hides behind buzzwords. It's nothing but a dog whistle.
Is she not a he?
She is, yes.
I always thought it meant "aware that certain things are offensive and upsetting to people, so maybe it's worth trying to change our ways" and since the opposite of that would be to say "I refuse to slightly bother myself by making the world a better place for others" the arseholes decided to make it sound like all woke folk are just childish and pompous.
I couldn’t tell you, because my understanding of woke is completely different to whatever generic meaning it has now.
I don’t even think two people have the same definition of it now.
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Interesting result. It would be particularly interesting to see where Labour picked up the difference. You'd imagine a lot of the UKIP vote would have gone Tory, and with the Lib Dem vote decreasing, was it a case of Tory voters turning to Labour?
Maybe some people believe this, maybe even you believe it. But it is inaccurate. But maybe that is the point, we live in an age of spin, government lies and disinformation.
"Labour councils in England hit harder by austerity than Tory areas"
https://www.theguardian.com/busines...gland-hit-harder-by-austerity-than-tory-areas
I meant to find some stats myself, thank you.
The fact that @Maticmaker doesn't know this, genuinely I'm sure, isn't just a result of government spin, it's a result of Labour's total failure in bringing it forward. Labour used to be full of people that would have done just that at one time, press or no press.
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Eh? How’s that possible?
Some nice confirmation bias in that tweet, but the whole of the council bar that one seat is still Tory.
https://www.kentonline.co.uk/folkestone/news/kcc-election-results-for-folkestone-and-hythe-246841/
Voting patterns across councils could give a more wider data set to predict a general election than one single by-election result in the North East.
Aaah I see, fair enough.
There are a multitude of statistics that show it just isnt true. Wealth inequality hasn't moved that much at all according to government indexes like GINI and disposable income of the top and bottom percentiles.
Gini is based on income not assets. Inequality in assets has massively changed and continues apace.