Westminster Politics

ThehatchetMan

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The other funny thing about it all is that the Tories recent history is filled with coalitions:

2019 - Conservative/UKIP and possibly Brexit Party too I believe
2017 - Conservative/DUP confidence and supply coalition
2010 - Conservative/Lib Dem coalition
 

Fingeredmouse

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The other funny thing about it all is that the Tories recent history is filled with coalitions:

2019 - Conservative/UKIP and possibly Brexit Party too I believe
2017 - Conservative/DUP confidence and supply coalition
2010 - Conservative/Lib Dem coalition
It's who said it that freaks me out. Is this a supposed threat?
 

Stanley Road

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Why is it silly to look at the results and come to the conclusion that Tiverton is not a Conservative area??

There is nothing to suggest or support the notion that it is a Conservative area.

It is what is called a Safe Seat for the Lib Dems, they are the most popular party in that particular area.
How long has it been a Conservative seat?
 

DOTA

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Got in to a surprisingly bullish exchange earlier due to my view that the Tories will retake Tiverton, so I may be unwise to go down a similar route here but do people agree Labour should absolutely expect to hold Wakefield in a general?
 

calodo2003

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The other funny thing about it all is that the Tories recent history is filled with coalitions:

2019 - Conservative/UKIP and possibly Brexit Party too I believe
2017 - Conservative/DUP confidence and supply coalition
2010 - Conservative/Lib Dem coalition
Why would Lib Dems be in a coalition with Cons in 2010?
 

DOTA

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I have no dog in the fight, it just seems like a weird coalition.
Not really. The Lib Dems generally, and that era of them specifically, were quite right wing economically.

Also Cameron was Tory leader at the time and he was on this 'modernise the party' drive, with senior Tories expected to keep their overt bigotry lower than average for the Conservative Party. Made it easier for the Lib Dems to think they could further the Tory agenda whilst maintaining respectability. They didn't and got crushed.
 

T00lsh3d

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Not really. The Lib Dems generally, and that era of them specifically, were quite right wing economically.

Also Cameron was Tory leader at the time and he was on this 'modernise the party' drive, with senior Tories expected to keep their overt bigotry lower than average for the Conservative Party. Made it easier for the Lib Dems to think they could further the Tory agenda whilst maintaining respectability. They didn't and got crushed.
Beautifully put
 

GuybrushThreepwood

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Not really. The Lib Dems generally, and that era of them specifically, were quite right wing economically.

Also Cameron was Tory leader at the time and he was on this 'modernise the party' drive, with senior Tories expected to keep their overt bigotry lower than average for the Conservative Party. Made it easier for the Lib Dems to think they could further the Tory agenda whilst maintaining respectability. They didn't and got crushed.
I think the Lib Dems were a left of centre party under Charles Kennedy. In 2005 they were definitely to the left of Blair's Labour, and numerous people switched from Labour to them during that year's election. But after he was removed as leader (I think he was pushed to resign), the 'Orange Bookers' took charge of the party culminating in Clegg taking the reigns, and they became more of a right of centre party.

One of the best things the Lib Dems have done in my lifetime was oppose the ridiculous and illegal invasion of Iraq (I'll never forget Kennedy being heckled by despicable and utterly thick Tory MPs when he delivered his speech during the Commons debate). Had the likes of Clegg or Swinson been their leader at that stage, while numerous individual MPs still would have voted against it, their official party position probably would have been to support it.

In terms of the 2010-2015 coalition, there were many things that the Lib Dems did that I wasn't happy with. Danny Alexander nodding, smiling and cheering his way through Osborne's budget announcement one day, and then denouncing it (despite signing up to it in the Treasury) and unveiling his daft yellow briefcase and alternate budget the next, encapsulated some of their most ridiculous behaviour during that period.

I will say though that the best policies during that period, i.e. the legalisation of same sex marriage, scrapping of the compulsory retirement age, the increased personal income tax allowance etc., were driven by the Lib Dems and not the Tories. Even the Pupil Premium policy, which I know was divisive, was driven by the Lib Dems despite the Tories and Michael Gove trying to claim credit for it.
 
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GuybrushThreepwood

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These by-elections further highlight the importance of anti-Tory tactical voting in key battleground seats at the next general election, with people who genuinely want the Tories booted out of power voting for the party with the best of chance of beating them in that particular constituencies.

Of course in 2019 any attempts for anti-Tory tactical voting were a complete disaster. Jo Swinson starting her formal election campaigning in a Labour-Tory marginal seat Kensington, where the incumbent was a 2nd referendum and remaining supporting Labour MP, and the 'distant 3rd place' Lib Dem vote noticeably increasing helping a Brexit supporting Tory MP to win that seat, really stood out.

While in 1997 the Tories were doomed to defeat anyway (that election was basically lost from late 1992 - early 1993), I think that the Lib Dem vote collapsed in numerous Labour-Tory battlegrounds, while the Labour vote collapsed in numerous Lib Dem-Tory battlegrounds, increasing the scale of that defeat. It's even more important that this happens at the next election, given that it could be difference between where there is a Tory led government or a Labour led one. I think that other than Sheffield Hallam, there are very few if any Labour-Lib Dem battleground seats anyway.

From the Lib Dems' perspective, they desperately want electoral reform (I do as well - FPTP is a ridiculous and outdated system), and it goes without saying that they're far more likely to get that if Labour are the largest party in Westminster than if the Tories are. Plus of course they're far more closely aligned with Labour under Starmer than they were with Labour under Corbyn.
 

Djemba-Djemba

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These by-elections further highlight the importance of anti-Tory tactical voting in key battleground seats at the next general election, with people who genuinely want the Tories booted out of power voting for the party with the best of chance of beating them in that particular constituencies.

Of course in 2019 any attempts for anti-Tory tactical voting were a complete disaster. Jo Swinson starting her formal election campaigning in a Labour-Tory marginal seat Kensington, where the incumbent was a 2nd referendum and remaining supporting Labour MP, and the 'distant 3rd place' Lib Dem vote noticeably increasing helping a Brexit supporting Tory MP to win that seat, really stood out.

While in 1997 the Tories were doomed to defeat anyway (that election was basically lost from late 1992 - early 1993), I think that the Lib Dem vote collapsed in numerous Labour-Tory battlegrounds, while the Labour vote collapsed in numerous Lib Dem-Tory battlegrounds, increasing the scale of that defeat. It's even more important that this happens at the next election, given that it could be difference between where there is a Tory led government or a Labour led one. I think that other than Sheffield Hallam, there are very few if any Labour-Lib Dem battleground seats anyway.

From the Lib Dems' perspective, they desperately want electoral reform (I do as well - FPTP is a ridiculous and outdated system), and it goes without saying that they're far more likely to get that if Labour are the largest party in Westminster than if the Tories are. Plus of course they're far more closely aligned with Labour under Starmer than they were with Labour under Corbyn.
Agreed yeah and I think in 1997 there was definitely an agreement with Tony Blair and Paddy Ashdown.

To make sure the Tories are out it's going to need to happen again and I'm cautiously optimistic another unofficial agreement with Labour and Lib Dem will happen. Especially when they've seen how well it worked in the by elections this week.
 

GuybrushThreepwood

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Agreed yeah and I think in 1997 there was definitely an agreement with Tony Blair and Paddy Ashdown.

To make sure the Tories are out it's going to need to happen again and I'm cautiously optimistic another unofficial agreement with Labour and Lib Dem will happen. Especially when they've seen how well it worked in the by elections this week.
Agreed. Blair and Ashdown were good friends weren't they. I think there were also talks behind the scenes about a possible coalition government and a major role for Ashdown in it, although of course Labour's margin of victory was so huge that it quickly became a moot point.

Even if neither party formally stands down candidates in seats where the other has a much better chance of beating the Tories, they can at least put in 'paper candidates' and absolutely zero campaigning effort. The Lib Dems should insist on something cast iron from Labour re electoral reform though.

Labour whether it is the leadership, other MPs, members or other supporters, can't afford to beat their chest and stubbornly insist that they don't need such help to become the largest party, given their established track record of losing general elections / winning less seats than the Tories (8 of the last 11).
 

TwoSheds

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Agreed. Blair and Ashdown were good friends weren't they. I think there were also talks behind the scenes about a possible coalition government and a major role for Ashdown in it, although of course Labour's margin of victory was so huge that it quickly became a moot point.

Even if neither party formally stands down candidates in seats where the other has a much better chance of beating the Tories, they can at least put in 'paper candidates' and absolutely zero campaigning effort. The Lib Dems should insist on something cast iron from Labour re electoral reform though.

Labour whether it is the leadership, other MPs, members or other supporters, can't afford to beat their chest and stubbornly insist that they don't need such help to become the largest party, given their established track record of losing general elections / winning less seats than the Tories (8 of the last 11).
They still get more MPs than they likely would under PR. Lot of salaries to lose so they'll be careful what electoral system they sign up to.
 

GuybrushThreepwood

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They still get more MPs than they likely would under PR. Lot of salaries to lose so they'll be careful what electoral system they sign up to.
In a situation where Labour are potentially reliant on the Lib Dems to get a Queen's speech through (the scenario I'm hoping for), the Lib Dems should only play ball if Labour sign up to a form of PR such as the Single Transferrable Vote.

Under PR, they'd quickly split into 2 or 3 different parties (currently they are essentially 3 parties operating under 1 umbrella). The Tories would split into 2 different parties as well.

No need for Ian Lavery and Wes Streeting, Rebecca Long-Bailey and Rachel Reeves, Jeremy Hunt and Jacob Rees-Mogg etc., to be members of the same party under PR. The fact that they are is utterly ridiculous, like flat mates who hate each other but live together as they cannot afford to pay the rent on their own. From Labour's perspective, that much needed split, removing the constant in-fighting and battle for the soul of the same party, would probably be a welcome relief.

Under the current system, the Tories are essentially the default party of government, and Labour only win and 'get their turn' when enough people finally grow tired of the status quo and want a change. I gather that the number of Labour party members supporting electoral reform and PR has increasingly significantly in recent times, unsurprisingly.
 

Maticmaker

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Official Coalitions tend only to form after the election. When all parties have demonstrated their prowess in harvesting votes.
Pre election coalition intentions tend to fall at the ballot box.
Labour have to demonstrate they can greatly weaken the Tories 'will to win' that means keeping Boris 'on ice' until the next GE. An outright win for Labour is not necessary, but their published manifesto has to attract others who lean left and must secure a serious block of Labour MP' s in Scotland.
What the two results recently have shown us ' the game is on again for the next GE. What Starmer and the TU's have to be careful about is not to feck it up on the run in!
 

Flying high

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'We went from 24% to 41% in the polls during the campaign because the rules meant I at least had to have my voice heard on the media, rather than the media describing what I said or hadn't said'.

The media learnt the power of this with Gerry Adams. They used it to full effect with Corbyn. They would constantly show footage of him bumbling about while someone tells us, in that special impartial media tone, what it is that Corbyn was really trying to say.
 

Fluctuation0161

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'We went from 24% to 41% in the polls during the campaign because the rules meant I at least had to have my voice heard on the media, rather than the media describing what I said or hadn't said'.

The media learnt the power of this with Gerry Adams. They used it to full effect with Corbyn. They would constantly show footage of him bumbling about while someone tells us, in that special impartial media tone, what it is that Corbyn was really trying to say.
Would be pretty simple to have similar rules all the time. Leveson 2 badly needed to happen. I suspect the Tories did a deal to bury Leveson 2 and any hope of proper media regulation in return for favourable media support.
 

sun_tzu

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if the opposition are clever, they would tie up the supreme court rulings in the states with the tories here. after all there's lots of links between the republicans and tories, through all kinds of funding streams and lobby groups / think tanks. pin down the senior tories views on abortion and lets see how that plays with their friends in the batshit crazy MAGA world. no doubt there is a anti-abortion lobby in the UK, but its small (i aint calling it pro life, because lets be honest, they dont give a shit about the actual babies once they are born) and it would be polling suicide for the tories to replicate some of their republican friends ideas in print over here. Whereas views on gun laws are seen as almost specific to the the USA and its constitution and thus UK politicians views are immaterial, ideas on limiting / banning access to abortion would cut through on this side of the big pond.
Won't be an issue as they think we live under sharia law anyway plus the only realy God only gave rights to Americans...

Whatever the rational maga is very much focused on American exceptinalism and America first

Those piggybacking that movement to push their own agendas know well enough the truth and don't care
 

Flying high

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Would be pretty simple to have similar rules all the time. Leveson 2 badly needed to happen. I suspect the Tories did a deal to bury Leveson 2 and any hope of proper media regulation in return for favourable media support.
Not so much a deal, I suspect, as an ongoing arrangement.
 

ThehatchetMan

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'We went from 24% to 41% in the polls during the campaign because the rules meant I at least had to have my voice heard on the media, rather than the media describing what I said or hadn't said'.

The media learnt the power of this with Gerry Adams. They used it to full effect with Corbyn. They would constantly show footage of him bumbling about while someone tells us, in that special impartial media tone, what it is that Corbyn was really trying to say.
I think Gerry Adams is a bit different from JC, I don’t think you can really compare them. Adams had links to a terrorist organisation which did a number of attacks on the British state.

Now having said that, I don’t believe Gerry Adams is a bad person and I do think he was portrayed badly by the media a number of times. I also think that he had a positive impact on peace in Northern Ireland in the end.

JC is a different kettle of fish though in the sense that he is more a sympathiser and is willing to sit at the table with these so called “terrorists” and listen to them and try to find peaceful solutions. Rather than someone who has strong links to groups which the uk deem as terrorists.

Edit: To add to that, I understand that people have different views in SF and IRA and as far as I’m aware Gerry Adams has always had strong IRA links but not sure if there has been conclusive proof.

But having said that SF under Gerry Adams had a lot of representatives who were involved with the IRA such as Gerry Kelly and Martina Anderson to name a couple.

We also have to remember that the two main parties to deliver peace in NI were SDLP and UUP, and that SDLP also take their seats in Westminster and try to resolve matters through political dialogue, an approach I feel Jeremy Corbyn would follow. Till this day SF still refuse to represent the people of Northern Ireland in Westminster.We have a very important bill going through Westminster on Monday which will have an immense impact on the people of NI and could go either way. It’s times like these that NI need a voice, SF don’t deliver that.

So to conclude I’d say Jeremy Corbyn is more of a John Hume than a Gerry Adams.
 
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Flying high

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I think Gerry Adams is a bit different from JC, I don’t think you can really compare them. Adams had links to a terrorist organisation which did a number of attacks on the British state.

Now having said that, I don’t believe Gerry Adams is a bad person and I do think he was portrayed badly by the media a number of times. I also think that he had a positive impact on peace in Northern Ireland in the end.

JC is a different kettle of fish though in the sense that he is more a sympathiser and is willing to sit at the table with these so called “terrorists” and listen to them and try to find peaceful solutions. Rather than someone who has strong links to groups which the uk deem as terrorists.

Edit: To add to that, I understand that people have different views in SF and IRA and as far as I’m aware Gerry Adams has always had strong IRA links but not sure if there has been conclusive proof.

But having said that SF under Gerry Adams had a lot of representatives who were involved with the IRA such as Gerry Kelly and Martina Anderson to name a couple.

We also have to remember that the two main parties to deliver peace in NI were SDLP and UUP, and that SDLP also take their seats in Westminster and try to resolve matters through political dialogue, an approach I feel Jeremy Corbyn would follow. Till this day SF still refuse to represent the people of Northern Ireland in Westminster.We have a very important bill going through Westminster on Monday which will have an immense impact on the people of NI and could go either way. It’s times like these that NI need a voice, SF don’t deliver that.

So to conclude I’d say Jeremy Corbyn is more of a John Hume than a Gerry Adams.
My intention wasn't to compare Corbyn with Gerry Adams at all. Only that the effectiveness of the treatment of Adams(banning his voice from UK news) inspired the media to treat the next perceived danger in a similar way. Though of course they weren't honest about that.

I can't say I know enough about Gerry Adams to comment. But it does strike me that were he not a pretty skilled orator(I think that's fair?), they wouldn't have bothered to ban him. Had Corbyn been given Farage levels of coverage, we could be in a very different country right now.
 

Fluctuation0161

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Vote Tory, get Tory...

NHS crisis caused by Tory underfunding not Covid, say doctors
https://www.theguardian.com/society...ed-by-tory-underfunding-not-covid-say-doctors

Johnson faces possible legal action over delay to Covid public inquiry
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...faces-legal-action-delay-covid-public-inquiry

How anyone could still vote for these cnuts is beyond me.
Some posters on here say that calling Tory voters "stupid and/or selfish" is self defeating.

Personally I think if it is true then it should be said. :)
 

Mart1974

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Some posters on here say that calling Tory voters "stupid and/or selfish" is self defeating.

Personally I think if it is true then it should be said. :)
One of my local MPs (next constituency over) is a new intake Tory who tweeted his praise for the Roe Vs Wade result (he swiftly removed the tweet but not before it was grabbed and shared) A lot of his supporters are expressing dismay at his support of the reduction in women's rights.

I spent a lot of time, at the time of his selection as a candidate, pointing out that he was a member of the ultra right wing Christian Institute and he would regularly spout far right statements. These were ignored and he was voted in by the same people who are questioning his views.

So yeah, Tory voters are stupid, stupid cnuts.
 

Pexbo

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One of my local MPs (next constituency over) is a new intake Tory who tweeted his praise for the Roe Vs Wade result (he swiftly removed the tweet but not before it was grabbed and shared) A lot of his supporters are expressing dismay at his support of the reduction in women's rights.

I spent a lot of time, at the time of his selection as a candidate, pointing out that he was a member of the ultra right wing Christian Institute and he would regularly spout far right statements. These were ignored and he was voted in by the same people who are questioning his views.

So yeah, Tory voters are stupid, stupid cnuts.
Scott Benton?
 

calodo2003

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One of my local MPs (next constituency over) is a new intake Tory who tweeted his praise for the Roe Vs Wade result (he swiftly removed the tweet but not before it was grabbed and shared) A lot of his supporters are expressing dismay at his support of the reduction in women's rights.

I spent a lot of time, at the time of his selection as a candidate, pointing out that he was a member of the ultra right wing Christian Institute and he would regularly spout far right statements. These were ignored and he was voted in by the same people who are questioning his views.

So yeah, Tory voters are stupid, stupid cnuts.
Is there a part(s) of England that is decidedly evangelical or Christian Institute, far right wing religious nuts? We obviously have the South & NW.
 

Flying high

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Is there a part(s) of England that is decidedly evangelical or Christian Institute, far right wing religious nuts? We obviously have the South & NW.
Not that I'm aware of. Some of our cities are quite segragated, so there are a few concentrated pockets of different religions(this is normally recent immigrant populations). But I don't think any part of England is noticeably more religious than another. And it doesn't overtly infect our politics, as it does over there.

What we do have though, is a deep well of bubbling resentment, which can be drawn upon to otherise just about anyone.
 

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It's depressing to think that during last 3 elections (I don't really remember 2010 other than Clegg Mania following the debates and Gordon Brown's accurate assessment of Gillian Duffy), the Tories have had very little to say policy-wise, but have still either won or remained the largest party.

In 2015 their nasty and vicious campaign orchestrated by Lynton Crosby centred around stirring up English nationalism and anti-Scottish sentiments and making personal attacks against Ed Miliband. In 2017 they were so sure that they'd win a landslide putting in the bare minimum effort, that they released a manifesto with nothing but 'half-baked, uncosted policies' as Andrew Neil rightly summarised, plus they of course made a series of personal attacks against Corbyn. And in 2019 of course they just repeated 'Get Brexit Done' ad nauseum, took blatant lying and serial dishonesty to a whole new level (at that time), and had an wafer thin manifesto in terms of domestic policies.

I also have little sympathy with people who have voted for the Tories during any of these past 3 elections, but are now complaining about the all too predictable ramifications of their disastrous regime. I know plenty of people in Hyndburn who voted for the Tories in 2019, and are bitterly regretting that decision. Reality hit home as they're lumbered with a completely out of touch Tory MP who couldn't care less about them, doesn't care about the fact that the area is one of the most deprived in England, can't be bothered to respond to letters / emails from constituents, couldn't be bothered to contribute and represent them in key economic support debates during the pandemic and is lacking in any compassion. She's like a younger Andrea Jenkyns (shudder).
 

Flying high

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It's depressing to think that during last 3 elections (I don't really remember 2010 other than Clegg Mania following the debates and Gordon Brown's accurate assessment of Gillian Duffy), the Tories have had very little to say policy-wise, but have still either won or remained the largest party.

In 2015 their nasty and vicious campaign orchestrated by Lynton Crosby centred around stirring up English nationalism and anti-Scottish sentiments and making personal attacks against Ed Miliband. In 2017 they were so sure that they'd win a landslide putting in the bare minimum effort, that they released a manifesto with nothing but 'half-baked, uncosted policies' as Andrew Neil rightly summarised, plus they of course made a series of personal attacks against Corbyn. And in 2019 of course they just repeated 'Get Brexit Done' ad nauseum, took blatant lying and serial dishonesty to a whole new level (at that time), and had an wafer thin manifesto in terms of domestic policies.

I also have little sympathy with people who have voted for the Tories during any of these past 3 elections, but are now complaining about the all too predictable ramifications of their disastrous regime. I know plenty of people in Hyndburn who voted for the Tories in 2019, and are bitterly regretting that decision. Reality hit home as they're lumbered with a completely out of touch Tory MP who couldn't care less about them, doesn't care about the fact that the area is one of the most deprived in England, can't be bothered to respond to letters / emails from constituents, couldn't be bothered to contribute and represent them in key economic support debates during the pandemic and is lacking in any compassion. She's like a younger Andrea Jenkyns (shudder).
2010 was Labour's(global) financial crash. Cameron's 3 word slogan. It worked far more than any positive policy they could have come up with. They've run with it ever since really.

The effectiveness of these tory lies really is depressing.