What is the absolute minimum that United should achieve next season?

[fastwalker]

I totally accept the idea that Manchester United is now a 'project' and undergoing a major rebuild and that the rebuild could take years. However, anyone who has ever managed a project before will tell you that projects have objectives, timelines, milestones and outcomes measures. A 'project' is not some vague, meaningless concept that is wide open to interpretation.

To be honest I get why people are reluctant to set expectations, because they are unwilling to put too much pressure on Ole, but are we seriously saying that we are willing to see United invest upwards of £150m in the transfer market in this window without a reasonable expectation of return? Really?

So here's the rub, set out below are a series of possible outcome options for the end of the forthcoming season. The question is: of these options (or any others that you can think of) what would you say is the absolute minimum that you would accept? What are your absolute bottom line?

Option 1: Champions League qualification
For this option, no matter how we get there, we must be in a Champions League spot at the end of the season. Performances and points tally are far less important than final placing. Even if we finish with a record low total for fourth spot, as long as we finish fourth that is all that matters.

Option 2: Champions League qualification and significantly improved performances
For this option, we need to finish in a Champions League spot and deliver genuinely improved performance on the pitch. We cannot just scrape through, because other teams around us are underperforming.

Option 3: Better performances and reduce the gap to eventual Premier League winners to no more than 20 points
For this option, our improved overall performances narrow the gap to the eventual Premier League winners to no more than 20 points. A 20 point gap would represent a 10 point improvement compared to last season.

Option 4: Significantly improved performances and a pot if we don't make Champions League
For this option we accept that we might not make Champions League, but performances will be much better (even if results don't always match them) and we will bag a pot either domestically or in Europe.

Option 5: A 'free swing' for Ole (same position and the same points)
For this option, we basically accept that this is going to be a season of experimentation, testing culture change and re-establishing the United philosophy. As such, there are no expectations whatsoever for Ole to deliver anything.​

 

[Sp00ks11]

We will finish between 6th and 10th.

 

[Josep Dowling]

As a club we should be trying to win the league.

In its current state we will be lucky to finish top 10 at this rate.

 

[Keefy18]

Probably a bit of an odd reply from me but either 2 or 5.

We should still be aiming for at least 4th, it was only 5pts from that anyway which isn't a huge gap.

But next season is going to be a huge test for him as well with trying out new things and possibly promoting some youth to take up spots in the squad as well and that takes time.

As much as I miss watching my beloved United, I'm also dreading it as well.

 

[DomesticTadpole]

Ideally we need CL, EL at the minimum. If Ole can achieve even the latter then he will get another shot at it. If he spends money and we fall even lower then I would not trust him with more money.

 

[Igor Drefljak]

Next year: Top 4 minimum with rebuild
Year after: Title challenge

It has to be that way... Anything less and ambition is gone

 

[Keefy18]

Next year: Top 4 minimum with rebuild
Year after: Title challenge

It has to be that way... Anything less and ambition is gone

That's just not going to happen

Building a successful team for a period of time takes...time.

 

[AaronRedDevil]

It'll all depend on the players. United have the quality to win the league but it'll depend on how well they use it. Dare to dream and an all that. With a strong mentality, anything is possible. Despite what the negative Nancy's say on here.

 

[sullydnl]

It depends on what happens in the summer really. If the likes of De Gea & Pogba are sold and we struggle to bring in sufficient reinforcements then the likely outcome gets significantly worse.

If we enter the season in that worst case scenario then it would be option five I guess. Though if we get to that point then we've already failed off field so there should be repercussions for that anyway.

 

[DomesticTadpole]

That's just not going to happen

Building a successful team for a period of time takes...time.

Of course it takes time, but the amount of money we have spent we should not be re-building. The amount of money we have spent we should already be title challengers and CL challengers. The money we spend this summer should be for that final push instead it is to enable us to scramble into the Top 6 again.

 

[Igor Drefljak]

That's just not going to happen

Building a successful team for a period of time takes...time.

I'm not saying we will win the league next next season, but we should make a push towards it.
Guardiola finished a fair few points behind Chelsea before winning the league
Liverpool finished 25 points behind City before running them as close as 1 point.

I think we should be challenging... Next season, big changes, push for top 4, lay the foundations ready for a challenge

 

[Infestissumam]

2019-20: top 5
2020-21: top 3
2021-22: challenge for title

anything more/quicker just feels unrealistic.

 

[Keefy18]

Of course it takes time, but the amount of money we have spent we should not be re-building. The amount of money we have spent we should already be title challengers and CL challengers. The money we spend this summer should be for that final push instead it is to enable us to scramble into the Top 6 again.

Spending isn't everything, its more so about structure.

Plenty of clubs have thrown money at the team and failed, some have achieved success for a small period but reverted to failing again. Leeds, AC Milan and of course ourselves more recently are perfectly examples that throwing money at a problem doesn't necessarily address the issues.

Our club is one steeped in history and traditions and struggles to modernize, we've had a singular manager in place for 3 decades and other clubs developed in that time frame. When he stepped down it was always going to be a struggle as we find our footing.

We finished 32 pts behind the league winners, we also finished 32 pts from relegation.

Let that sink in.

 

[Keefy18]

I'm not saying we will win the league next next season, but we should make a push towards it.
Guardiola finished a fair few points behind Chelsea before winning the league
Liverpool finished 25 points behind City before running them as close as 1 point.

I think we should be challenging... Next season, big changes, push for top 4, lay the foundations ready for a challenge

Good god no we shouldn't! Can I have some of what your smoking pal?

We finished 32 pts from City, We finished 32 pts from Relegation. We are the very definition of a midtable team!

Liverpool have been building blocks for a few years, with Edwards appointment in 2016 they started to take off like a rocket more recently.

Prior to that it was a few years of mid table mediocrity.

 

[R'hllor]

Win a title, anything else can feck off, regardless of that being realistic or not. Whole this top 4 CL bullshit is laughable, like that will help us to get back on track (saw our transfers when we had CL to offer lol), we would turn into Arsenal MkII if we already aint that.

 

[Smores]

Our target is never below CL qualification, it doesn't matter who leaves our resources demand as such.

We finished 2nd two seasons ago the idea that 5th becomes acceptable is madness.

 

[Nou_Camp99]

I think the best we can hope for is 4th but there's a fair chance we won't even get that.

City/Scousers will be top 2 again. Spurs should be 3rd if Kane stays fit.

 

[sullydnl]

I'm not saying we will win the league next next season, but we should make a push towards it.
Guardiola finished a fair few points behind Chelsea before winning the league
Liverpool finished 25 points behind City before running them as close as 1 point.

I think we should be challenging... Next season, big changes, push for top 4, lay the foundations ready for a challenge

The Liverpool comparison is a poor one.

They finished 25 points behind City but they were also good enough to reach the CL final that year, had a defined style of play and had already brought in key players (Salah, Mane, Firmino, Van Dijk, Robertson, etc.) over the previous several years.

The lesson there isn't "Liverpool made up a 25 point gap, so can we". It's "we're more than one year away from even being as good as a Liverpool side who finished 25 points off the title".

People claiming we can or should challenge for the title from our current position are indulging in a fantasy that only sets false expectations that we will inevitably fail to meet. It's an absolute non-runner.

 

[Igor Drefljak]

Good god no we shouldn't! Can I have some of what your smoking pal?

We finished 32 pts from City, We finished 32 pts from Relegation. We are the very definition of a midtable team!

Liverpool have been building blocks for a few years, with Edwards appointment in 2016 they started to take off like a rocket more recently.

Prior to that it was a few years of mid table mediocrity.

Right ok.... So in two years time, hoping to earn maybe 15-25 points extra is a massive unrealistic target?
Also considering the great seasons Liverpool and City have had. They may not repeat such numbers by that time.

Again, in my eyes, a title challenge is pushing somebody close. Even if that means we end up 10 or so points behind, we've been in and around contention.

 

[DomesticTadpole]

Spending isn't everything, its more so about structure.

Plenty of clubs have thrown money at the team and failed, some have achieved success for a small period but reverted to failing again. Leeds, AC Milan and of course ourselves more recently are perfectly examples that throwing money at a problem doesn't necessarily address the issues.

Our club is one steeped in history and traditions and struggles to modernize, we've had a singular manager in place for 3 decades and other clubs developed in that time frame. When he stepped down it was always going to be a struggle as we find our footing.

We finished 32 pts behind the league winners, we also finished 32 pts from relegation.

Let that sink in.

The club is living in the past. My big worry is that we now have a manager who is living there as well.

 

[Igor Drefljak]

The Liverpool comparison is a poor one.

They finished 25 points behind City but they were also good enough to reach the CL final that year, had a defined style of play and had already brought in key players (Salah, Mane, Firmino, Van Dijk, Robertson, etc.) over the previous several years.

The lesson there isn't "Liverpool made up a 25 point gap, so can we". It's "we're more than one year away from even being as good as a Liverpool side who finished 25 points off the title".

People claiming we can or should challenge for the title from our current position are indulging in a fantasy that only sets false expectations that we will inevitably fail to meet. It's an absolute non-runner.

I'm also saying this is a 2 year process. At no point did I say we should expect to challenge next season.

 

[SER19]

Top 4 and a cup with a complete change in style and atmosphere around the club.

 

[sullydnl]

I'm also saying this is a 2 year process. At no point did I say we should expect to challenge next season.

Apologies, I thought you were talking about next season.

 

[RedDevilRoshi]

Top 4 and a cup with a complete change in style and atmosphere around the club.

This

 

[Keefy18]

The club is living in the past. My big worry is that we now have a manager who is living there as well.

Oh it totally is but that's the United way We are steeped in tradition and sentimentality.

Right ok.... So in two years time, hoping to earn maybe 15-25 points extra is a massive unrealistic target?
Also considering the great seasons Liverpool and City have had. They may not repeat such numbers by that time.

Again, in my eyes, a title challenge is pushing somebody close. Even if that means we end up 10 or so points behind, we've been in and around contention.

Mate, the reality is this if were taking Liverpool

Fenway Sports Group bought Liverpool in 2010: 9 years later they won a trophy worth mentioning!

Hired Hodgson for a single season, finished 6th
Hired Dalglish...for a single season, finished 8th
Hired Rodgers, finished 7th, then 2nd and back down to 6th... started the following season and he dragged them back further to 10th! Hired Klopp who finished 8th
Klopp then finished 4th, 4th again and finally closed the gap....

Through all that they lost their best player every season pretty much in the likes of Coutinho, Suarez and Sterling.

It's going to take time sadly cause our squad is a mess currently and we don't have the players to make that big a change so quickly.

 

[Keefy18]

I'm also saying this is a 2 year process. At no point did I say we should expect to challenge next season.

It's not been a 2 year process for Liverpool, its been a 9 year process.

FSG bought Liverpool in 2010 and fecked around with managers and were a mid table team. Same as we currently are, they've only become a solid team in the last 2 years with a brilliant manager and DoF supporting him.

 

[Devilsrock7]

Premature to speculate until we know our squad . lf we can field a team that includes quality signings that perform for the jersey .
Potentially champions league qualification should be our goal

If we as many have said loose Pogba , DDG ,Lukaku along with Herrera and don't replace with quality I fear for our future , as pressure will mount quickly on OGS .

 

[Woodenlung]

With the rate we're losing players I'd say we're looking at a top 8 finish at best. We're linked with a lot of good players, but none have actually signed as of yet. Get a few of them and I think top six and a run deep into the EL is likely. We're a million miles from the current top 4 and anyone who thinks otherwise is deluded.

 

[RedSky]

Depends on the level of investment we get in the squad. As of right now, i'm not confident in our players and we're not bringing players in which is a huge concern.

 

[fastwalker]

That's just not going to happen

Building a successful team for a period of time takes...time.

I agree that rebuilding a successful team does takes time. However, we are talking about finishing top four not winning the Premier League. The average points tally for a fourth place finish over the past 10 years is 72 points. If Ole cannot find six additional points from the dross of last season, then he wants sacking. Sorry.

I just cannot accept that a side with the resource of United should be accepting to finish outside of the top four. To me, the barest minimum we should expect for the size of club we are is Champions League. The reason why I emphasise the Champions League is because, being outside it, will affect the quality of players we are able to attract. If we cannot attract quality players it will make the rebuild even more difficult. Quality players do not want to play their football on a Thursday night at obscure locations in Scandinavia and Eurasia.

For a serious Premier League challenge, we are years away, perhaps three to five years.

 

[Shark]

With the rate we're losing players I'd say we're looking at a top 8 finish at best. We're linked with a lot of good players, but none have actually signed as of yet. Get a few of them and I think top six and a run deep into the EL is likely. We're a million miles from the current top 4 and anyone who thinks otherwise is deluded.

We’re a million miles from Chelsea? Seriously?

 

[hobbers]

We're not qualifying for the CL next season, not a fecking chance.

Unless some very radical things happen in the transfer window, particularly re replacing Pogba with some actual quality signings. This is perfectly possible given the players available. But we're simply not going to do it.

Same story with trying to upgrade CB, RW and CDM positions. We're going to be rotating Mata and Lingard on the RW for another season for feck sake. We'll spend the entire window trying to lowball for Maguire and end up with nothing. We might at a push get Longstaff for CDM but that's far from certain.

 

[AshRK]

Top 4 and a trophy.

 

[Kemizee]

It'll all depend on the players. United have the quality to win the league but it'll depend on how well they use it. Dare to dream and an all that. With a strong mentality, anything is possible. Despite what the negative Nancy's say on here.

Care to explain what quality you are referring to here?

 

[shiranaiotoko]

Prevent relegation. There's no potential for more. Top 4 would be a miracle. I don't care if end up 7th or 17th.

 

[UnitedObsession99]

Ask this question again once the transfer window is over.

We could really do with maybe 10 in and out to really make big steps in the right direction for longer term success. This level of change might mean a hit to fluidity in performance, but could pick up as the year goes on.

Broadly it should be a free hit, but with the second half of the season showing real positive momentum. If Ole starts strong and drops off again we do need to ask questions about what the route causes are.

I'm not convinced one summer will change the energy/ fitness levels of our team, so if thats what costs us its clear more investment and churn of players is required.

If it's continued use of players with poor statistical achievement e.g. Ashley Young who can't pass or cross and isn't great at tackling or heading then you have to ask why these players are persisted with.

SAF did great work behind the scenes and that bought him time. The problem is I'm not sure we even have the right framework to review that. Who has the insight to know what good looks likes behind the scenes.

 

[BrianMcClair'sBarnet]

The absolute minimum would be another Europa League place,which I think we'll get if we have a underwhelming transfer window and a couple of major stars leave without adequate replacements.

 

[Sir Scott McToMinay]

That totally depends on our transfer business.
As it is, we would struggle to finish sixth imo, Leicester and Everton will be better next season, I can see both starting the season well.

If we manage to get a couple of good players in, then top 4 and a trophy.

 

[Amadaeus]

Improved performance, reached the finals of Europa league and challenge for the title.

We are Manchester United not Spurs, Arsenal, Everton or Leceister. Anything else lower and we will slide deeper into mediocrity.

 

[Gambit]

The Title!