He's just a bit meh. If you look at the stats he's not really all that better than De Gea at anything, and nowhere near the best keepers in the league.
Who are the best ball playing goalkeepers that are attainable?
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik and Imran hold a long overdue conversation about United's awful league form with 1 win in 7. They discuss a disappointing draw at Bournemouth, a not so disappointing draw against Liverpool and a crushing defeat at Chelsea - Is time nearly over for Erik Ten Hag?
Then in a special second half of the pod, Nik welcomes Natalie ( https://twitter.com/natalie_17) to discuss the fortunes of Manchester United Women as they booked a place in the FA Cup Final after a historic first ever win vs. Chelsea.
Shorter keepers need to be more explosive than bigger keepers and muscles tend to lose that explosiveness while aging. So that affects shorter keepers more than taller ones that can really more on their body size
Like I mentioned before about ederson for example, you have to understand the context of stats. Hence why when I posted the stats I only specifically mentioned 3 of the stats that has clear context. Some stats can be low number because of team playing style. Obviously the player from lesser teams that sit deep more will have higher shot stopping stats than teams that has more possession.
Also, shot stopping being in the pro category needs to be re-evaluated. He still makes hollywood saves from time to time that he has no right to save but he's not saving the ones he should be saving. This is borne out in the statistics now that he's slightly below average. That combined with all his other inadequacies and his really high salary expectations mean it's a no brainer to replace him.
Replace "and" with "that" please.
Oh I dare say you’re right. Especially re. Cañizares, who was truly great.
It might be a myth that was created to explain Casillas’ shocking decline.
Yeah I wouldn’t argue with any of that.
Edit: though now we have actual leaders in defence, maybe having a shouty keeper is of less importance?
I dunno; he does seem a better all-rounder than De Gea. But yes, there’s nothing really outstanding about him.
I suppose the key factor is whether ETH regards him as a more efficient cog in the machine he’s building.
What about a straight swap for Henderson?I am never concerned about him on crosses and corners and tbh the only time I’ve thought he might have got that if he was a few inches taller have been a few long range efforts that were just out of reach - but you could say that about all keepers at some point. He is going this summer without a doubt. Would do well at United I’d have thought, ideally an auction with United winning it with £25m heading our way
Yeah I'm not suggesting Pickford as a signing but blindly using pass completion stats is not a reasonable view to take. He plays in a team that goes long more often than not, his short game is generally pretty good to be fair to him.
The other issue with pass completion stats, and this is dependent on the team the goalkeeper plays for, as I've mentioned about Ramsdale in particular in another thread, is that a lot of the time the longer balls aren't directly aimed towards keeping possession. Ramsdale is excellent on the ball, but his long completion stats are very low; this is because his long balls forward are aimed to turning full backs towards their own goals while Martinelli/Saka press them high, if you think about it it's highly logical as Arsenal don't have height in attacking areas to win aerial challenges. Pickford does do this too but nowhere near as well as Ramsdale does. The issue with this in terms of pass completion stats is that a long ball forward into an area for attackers to press counts exactly the same as a ball hoofed aimlessly into the air like De Gea's ball before the Palace equaliser last week. It's interesting because Ederson was one of the first goalkeepers doing it on a regular basis in the league but he's changed over the last couple of years and does it a lot less.
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Diogo Costa is the best choice, but the expensive choice.
David Raya is the cheap choice this summer due to contract situation. He's one of the best keepers in the league statistically too. Comfortable with the ball at his feet. Given we have a bit to do, I'd be happy with this.
We need to sort out our wages, so de Gea needs to go. 200k is still double what is acceptable for him based on what he provides. The biggest issue in our squad is players not performing up to their wages. De Gea and Sancho our top 2 earners, performing like bottom half premier league players and could be replaced by 2 players making 50k each rather than 350k each.
Martial 5th on 250k. Maguire on 190k. Antony on 200k already apparently. All good to spend 100m on a young star, but give them 100k a week like Chelsea allegedly with Mudryk, why go 200k right away. Van de Beek 120k. Jones collecting his wages for a decade and being injured for 70% of it. Tossing over 100k at Dean Henderson after 1 loan season. Needs sorting out.
David Raya is the cheap choice this summer due to contract situation. He's one of the best keepers in the league statistically too. Comfortable with the ball at his feet. Given we have a bit to do, I'd be happy with this.
We need to sort out our wages, so de Gea needs to go. 200k is still double what is acceptable for him based on what he provides. The biggest issue in our squad is players not performing up to their wages. De Gea and Sancho our top 2 earners, performing like bottom half premier league players and could be replaced by 2 players making 50k each rather than 350k each.
Martial 5th on 250k. Maguire on 190k. Antony on 200k already apparently. All good to spend 100m on a young star, but give them 100k a week like Chelsea allegedly with Mudryk, why go 200k right away. Van de Beek 120k. Jones collecting his wages for a decade and being injured for 70% of it. Tossing over 100k at Dean Henderson after 1 loan season. Needs sorting out.
Convenient you left out the fact Pickford also has an assist this season though, despite not being good with the ball...
I would imagine he'd cost £30-40m, which is alot cheaper than some of the other options we have.
I’m not seeing that this season. Lots of clean sheets and impossible saves. He will save the one shot out of nowhere that is a nailed on goal.
For me his weaknesses don’t outweigh his saving our butts so many times.
We need someone in the mould of Maignan.
I'm not sure he's all that much more of an all rounder. He's not really much better at passing or claiming crosses and certainly not at shot-stopping.
What are the qualities that would make him a more efficient cog?
I don't think there's enough there to go to the bother of getting him in ahead of the alternatives.
I think David has done really well in his decision making when playing out from the back, after the first few disastrous games.
I’d love a gk with more ability on the ball, but we can’t deny he is doing a good job for the team.
I’d love a gk with more ability on the ball, but we can’t deny he is doing a good job for the team.
The problem for De Gea is that errors in straightforward situations have crept into his game over the last 5 seasons (Brentford’s first and the goal against Everton immediately spring to mind, that’s just the ones from this season). As a result, his superhuman reflex saves are being cancelled out and thus, statistically, he’s now average when it comes to shot stopping overall. In the last 5 seasons, including this one, De Gea has ranked in the 41st, 90th, 56th, 55th and 69th percentiles for shot stopping (starting from this season and going back to 2018-19), as measured by goals prevented per 90 relative to post shot xG. Bar last season, where we conceded a horrendous amount of shots, he has been distinctly average over the last 5 years when comparing his shot stopping with Premier League peers. Pope is 80th, 48th, 98th, 41st and 87th. Alisson is 93rd, 94th, 83rd, 34th and 91st. If we had a keeper who wasn’t quite so error prone but not capable of the amazing saves that De Gea is, we’d probably concede a similar amount of goals overall.
There are 89 goalkeepers who have played at least 630 minutes (7 games worth) and are under the age of 33 (we won't sign anyone older than De Gea). De Gea ranks:
Filtering by keepers who:
This is players from the big 5 leagues only, so Costa is excluded, but it should cover most bases. Raya is excluded on the basis that Brentford go long from goal kicks (though this shouldn’t be held against him - it’s a system thing. Everything else looks decent), as is Maignan, who also doesn’t appear to sweep much. If I was a scout, I’d probably lose the metrics relating to playing out pending eye test, as it’s very team and system dependent.
Take your pick!
There are 89 goalkeepers who have played at least 630 minutes (7 games worth) and are under the age of 33 (we won't sign anyone older than De Gea). De Gea ranks:
- 77th for completion percentage of long passes
- 56th for number of passes attempted from open play per 90
- 81st for percentage of crosses stopped
- 65th for sweeping actions per 90
- 56th for ratio of shots prevented (Post shot xG faced - goals conceded, divided by Post Shot xG faced. The latter normalises for being in a team that concedes a lot of shots). Think of it as the percentage of goals conceded/prevented relative to the shots faced by that goalkeeper when compared to the “average” keeper. 0 would be average performance, positive is better and negative is worse than average.
Filtering by keepers who:
- Complete at least 30% of their open play long passes (they know when to do this and have the ability to do so) - De Gea 28.8
- Make at least 25 open play passes per 90 (not perfect, but gives some idea that they might be comfortable in build up) - De Gea 25.35
- Launches less than 3.5 goal kicks per 90 (plays in a system that involves playing out from the back) - De Gea 3.41
- Stops at least 3.5% of crosses (they won't be terrible at this) - De Gea 2.7%
- Sweeps at least 1.2 times per 90 (indicative of system and ability) - De Gea 0.8
This is players from the big 5 leagues only, so Costa is excluded, but it should cover most bases. Raya is excluded on the basis that Brentford go long from goal kicks (though this shouldn’t be held against him - it’s a system thing. Everything else looks decent), as is Maignan, who also doesn’t appear to sweep much. If I was a scout, I’d probably lose the metrics relating to playing out pending eye test, as it’s very team and system dependent.
Take your pick!
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Good shout!
Done mate.
Thanks, mate - it obviously matters little in the grand scheme, but why not and so forth.
Yeah he is considered homegrown for squad reg purposes
Think we will pass on that one
We already have Thomas Strakosha who we got in the summer with one eye on Raya leaving wither in January or the summer - doubt he would have swapped being Lazio's no 1 to sit on our bench without there being a pathway to being our new number 1.
Interesting to see Kepa there, when he is a walking disaster most of the time.The problem for De Gea is that errors in straightforward situations have crept into his game over the last 5 seasons (Brentford’s first and the goal against Everton immediately spring to mind, that’s just the ones from this season). As a result, his superhuman reflex saves are being cancelled out and thus, statistically, he’s now average when it comes to shot stopping overall. In the last 5 seasons, including this one, De Gea has ranked in the 41st, 90th, 56th, 55th and 69th percentiles for shot stopping (starting from this season and going back to 2018-19), as measured by goals prevented per 90 relative to post shot xG. Bar last season, where we conceded a horrendous amount of shots, he has been distinctly average over the last 5 years when comparing his shot stopping with Premier League peers. Pope is 80th, 48th, 98th, 41st and 87th. Alisson is 93rd, 94th, 83rd, 34th and 91st. If we had a keeper who wasn’t quite so error prone but not capable of the amazing saves that De Gea is, we’d probably concede a similar amount of goals overall.
There are 89 goalkeepers who have played at least 630 minutes (7 games worth) and are under the age of 33 (we won't sign anyone older than De Gea). De Gea ranks:
The below table shows all the data (sorted by shot stopping this season). Bazunu and Meslier have been that poor at shot stopping they’re at the bottom of the list, where I’ve had to crop the image. De Gea is below average at everything that a goalkeeper needs to do.
- 77th for completion percentage of long passes
- 56th for number of passes attempted from open play per 90
- 81st for percentage of crosses stopped
- 65th for sweeping actions per 90
- 56th for ratio of shots prevented (Post shot xG faced - goals conceded, divided by Post Shot xG faced. The latter normalises for being in a team that concedes a lot of shots). Think of it as the percentage of goals conceded/prevented relative to the shots faced by that goalkeeper when compared to the “average” keeper. 0 would be average performance, positive is better and negative is worse than average.
Filtering by keepers who:
This leaves us with:
- Complete at least 30% of their open play long passes (they know when to do this and have the ability to do so) - De Gea 28.8
- Make at least 25 open play passes per 90 (not perfect, but gives some idea that they might be comfortable in build up) - De Gea 25.35
- Launches less than 3.5 goal kicks per 90 (plays in a system that involves playing out from the back) - De Gea 3.41
- Stops at least 3.5% of crosses (they won't be terrible at this) - De Gea 2.7%
- Sweeps at least 1.2 times per 90 (indicative of system and ability) - De Gea 0.8
This is players from the big 5 leagues only, so Costa is excluded, but it should cover most bases. Raya is excluded on the basis that Brentford go long from goal kicks (though this shouldn’t be held against him - it’s a system thing. Everything else looks decent), as is Maignan, who also doesn’t appear to sweep much. If I was a scout, I’d probably lose the metrics relating to playing out pending eye test, as it’s very team and system dependent.
Take your pick!
Likewise Ward, who is also a walking disaster.
Also notable that there's quite a few keepers in struggling/under performing teams in there too.
Just goes to show that mainly looking at stats regards footwork isn't everything I guess.
I think the stats need to be analyzed differently. We have a lot of clean sheets: De Gea is part of that. There is no way he is as bad at shot stopping as the data suggest.
We have as many clean sheets (joint 3rd) as you would expect for a team that is amongst the lowest for xGA (4th in the league) and big chances conceded (3rd in the league). De Gea is an average shot stopper playing behind one of the leagues better defences.
The number of clean sheets is not a good indicator of whether a keeper is good at his job or not.
De Gea isn't saving enough of the shots which are on target when compared to the to the other keepers in the league. You only have to watch any of our matches to realise our defence this season is putting in a lot more blocks. Our improved defence under ten Hag is the main reason for the increase in clean sheets.
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You’ll have to convince me he is average. The eye test convinces me he stops balls that he has no right to get to.
Bar the mistake against Everton, I can’t remember him being at fault. I’m not counting the first two games.
Kepa has been excellent this season, in every area. His previous seasons notwithstanding, he’s shown himself to be a very talented keeper in the end. Henderson and Ward are below average shot stoppers (and in Ward’s case conceding 28% goals more than expected, is horrendous, he’s cost his team 5 goals, as well as being pretty poor when going long) as can be seen in the last column.
The only keepers who you could say are truly elite ball players, from these numbers (high launched completion combined with a high number of open play passes) are the ones who play in a very good team already (Alisson and Ederson - though he’s terrible at shot stopping), though Samba, Rulli (just moved to Ajax) and to some extent Pau Lopez buck this trend.
Talks of Chelsea looking at yet another number one keeper however.
Kepa is far from elite, he has been awful in previous seasons and been fairly average this season, stats can provide fodder for saying otherwise but he has a smaller amount of data then other comparable keepers, and made an awful mistake Vs City, which certainly hasn't been his only one this season.
Do you watch other keepers with the same scrutiny? Other average PL keepers make good saves but you don't really notice because you're not as invested in the result.
I always like your posts. Common sense and good observations based on what we see on the pitch.
I agree with GK CM and ST being the priorities for the summer.
Followed by adding squad players in certain areas. E.g replacing Maguire with a young CB.
Based on this table I wonder why Arteta replaced Leno with Ramsdale. Leno seems have way better stats in comparison.
There are things like errors leading to goals (like the Kepa example) and ball playing ability under pressure which aren’t covered here (limitations of freely available data), such as when an easy shot is given away due to the keeper mistakenly thinking he’s the next coming of Ronaldinho - I’m looking at you Edouard Mendy. That type of thing isn’t covered here unfortunately.
More importantly, communication with the rest of the defence and attitude towards the job and teammates are vital variables which cannot be quantified; a good recruitment department would have to make a call on these things. Data is a starting point and not the complete story.
England gets a new manager and Pickford will be the 3rd choice behind Pope and Ramsdale, but let's sign him to replace De Gea. Then again, we did replace Schmeichel with Bosnich, so why not I guess.
We've conceded the third fewest goals in all of Europe, yet some people are convinced De Gea is the problem.
If you havent read the previous posts, We are defending better...and give away very few big chances as a team. Nothing to do with de gea...team is pressing better, putting in big blocks etc. This obvious when you watch us play plus the stats show this same thing, However De geas save percentage is still average this season(been average for 5 seasons)...basically from the few shots the team has given away...how many has de gea managed to prevent from being goals. Despite the fancy saves, it is obvious that de gea doesnt pass the eye test or the statistics test unless you refuse to apply your mind deeply when watching him
3rd best defense in the continent, and you don't think the goalkeeper plays a part in that. Okay.
Eh? We've not even conceded the 3rd fewest in the PL.