I've thought Portugal have had strong squads for the last two tournaments (with obvious flaws). So they would be my bet, especially considering where it's being held next. They obviously need a strong coach, but Portugal produce talented coaches so they seem the most likely to me (although still, the odds are against them).
The Dutch have gone out of tournaments by small margins since 2006 I believe. They're always contenders but part of me thinks their best oppotunities to win in may have passed, barring an exceptional generation that gives them strength from front-to-back.
I'd love Japan to make big strides in terms of making it deep into the tournament, I always tend to support them in their matches, but them winning it still seems far away.
I'm intrigued to see how the next generation will fare for Croatia, but it doesn't seem likely they'll challenge so brilliantly again. I was impressed in the last World Cup with how well they still did despite losing Mandzukic and Rakitic from 2018, but next time they'll be without Modric, Perisic and Kovacic (presumably). I think they've been seriously unlucky this time and in the final in 2018 with some poor or close decisions, so I hope they can remain competitive, even for selfish reasons as they've been involved in some great matches with some memorable comebacks.
Norway have a chance this time. I would only make them favourites against Switzerland but England and Argentina are beatable. They have to really go for this - sure, they can get even better in the coming years, but they also have the surprise factor this time.
