SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

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Are the Gov. keeping track of all of those who recover? Presumably these folks can be put to work in essential areas if fit and able since they now have immunity.
 

11101

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I think the number of new cases is again down from yesterday, which makes it the third day in a row. It probably is a trend.

The number of deaths at this stage does not show too much. That is the people who got infected 2-3 weeks ago. The number of new cases (providing that enough testing is being done) is the most important metric.
New cases are up from yesterday but still down on the days before.

Active cases are down for the third day in a row which is what the government really cares about this point.
 

VeevaVee

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Same thing happening near my apartment (not in NYC) too, it makes no sense.
My mate, who is a domestic sparky, was asked to come in because the government hadn’t said otherwise. Thankfully his boss understood when he explained his girlfriend has breathing difficulties sometimes and he can’t risk it.

As if domestic sparky work is important right now. It’s like some people can’t figure anything out without being told directly. I realise in some cases it’s greed (big construction) or a need to earn still, but that’s the second case today that someone I know can’t make the correct decision that doesn’t fall in to those categories. In recent years it’s become so apparent how dumb this country is.
 

Skills

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Number of deaths is a lot harder to model than no. of cases. When I was looking at China's data, it seems like the total number of active cases peaked about 5 days after the 'peak' number of new cases. But they made that very difficult to calculate by changing the testing criteria.

So things are still about to get worse for Italy in terms of strain on the healthcare system, but they should start easing up from next week.
 

Paxi

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Are the Gov. keeping track of all of those who recover? Presumably these folks can be put to work in essential areas if fit and able since they now have immunity.
I don't think there is enough data regarding immunity. There is speculation that the virus can lay dormant in ones body after all they symptoms have gone and the patients tested negative.
 

Skills

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New cases are up from yesterday but still down on the days before.

Active cases are down for the third day in a row which is what the government really cares about this point.
You mean the increase in active cases or total active cases are down?
 

11101

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Number of deaths is a lot harder to model than no. of cases. When I was looking at China's data, it seems like the total number of active cases peaked about 5 days after the 'peak' number of new cases. But they made that very difficult to calculate by changing the testing criteria.

So things are still about to get worse for Italy in terms of strain on the healthcare system, but they should start easing up from next week.
Yes, there are far too many variables and unknowns to model deaths accurately, especially between countries. There's a reason governments report deaths last. Active cases and new cases are their priority.

By far Italy's major concern at the moment is to bring the number of active cases down and relieve strain on the hospitals.

You mean the increase in active cases or total active cases are down?
The increase is down.
 

Mr Pigeon

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My mate, who is a domestic sparky, was asked to come in because the government hadn’t said otherwise. Thankfully his boss understood when he explained his girlfriend has breathing difficulties sometimes and he can’t risk it.

As if domestic sparky work is important right now. It’s like some people can’t figure anything out without being told directly. I realise in some cases it’s greed (big construction) or a need to earn still, but that’s the second case today that someone I know can’t make the correct decision without falling in to those categories. In recent years it’s become so apparent how dumb this country is.
Everyone thinks that their job is important. Sparkies, truck drivers, and all the other unskilled jobs like managing directors or cock noses. The sad truth is that these people are in jobs that we don't need or care about. Also included in that category are golfers, sock puppeteers and me.
 

redshaw

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Great one. Did you create this ? Is there a number for US and India as well ?
No, someone else did the table but I just updated it. UK and Italy death tolls were matching for a bit when adjusted and looked ominous and this is just comparing major European nations of similar size.

India is still very early and US is very lopsided with New York and still early with testing considering the population. Perhaps later on India, China, US and Europe might be worth comparing.
 

horsechoker

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Both no. of deaths and no. of new cases in Italy rose today from yesterday according to worldometers. 5249 new cases today compared to 4789 yesterday. 743 deaths compared to 601 yesterday
According to the Italian media there were 3612 new cases compared to 3780 yesterday. Its a small decrease but its the third decrease in a row
 

iKnowNothing

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Has the virus been completely contained in China? I read somewhere that the lockdown is getting (or has been) removed. Does it mean that if people hunker down for two months, the virus just “goes away”?
 

Drawfull

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Has the virus been completely contained in China? I read somewhere that the lockdown is getting (or has been) removed. Does it mean that if people hunker down for two months, the virus just “goes away”?
No there will be new cases, but they hope that they will be at a manageable level, where they can contact trace to put said contacts into lockdown to minimise the spread.
 

Paxi

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Really impressed with my local supermarket in my village. Only letting 4-5 people in at the time. The rest have to queue outside 2 meters apart. Hand sanitizer is dispensed by one of the staff before anyone can enter. In the shop people have to stay two meters apart. And all the staff are frequently using hand sanitizer as well. Very reassuring.
 

vodrake

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According to the Italian media there were 3612 new cases compared to 3780 yesterday. Its a small decrease but its the third decrease in a row
I think that's active cases rather than new cases. Apologies if that was what you meant, I misunderstood
 

Fener1907

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Your quotes article (the first) is not saying what you think it is.

Vigorous exercise is a key pivot point there.

People training (properly) for a Marathon, won’t be doing 60 minutes of vigorous running. Let alone the 4 hours a week that the article suggests is the upper ceiling.

My evidence base is over a decade of being an active running coach (at different levels of volume in that time. I haven’t coached anyone in forever) An age group competitive runner for 2 decades. Someone that’s ran, and ran with people who, ran for years in the spin at the 60-150mpw level. I was a UK Athletics Coach (low level but still ran sessions at Lea).

I can’t adjudicate for anyone running at their max heart rate on every run. They shouldn’t be doing that.

Anyone running every single day of their life, in their aerobic zone, could effectively run a marathon a day and be just fine. So anyone short of that will also be just fine.

Your Aerobic system has no theoretical upper limit (Age obviously impacts in the long term). It will only ever improve when put under manageable stress. Literally all of the scientific evidence is on that side of the argument. It’s not the odd article here and there.
Okay. I'll leave it at that then because I think you know more about the subject than I do. You're also right in that I've misread the article. Hopefully people don't train as much as the article suggests is necessary for causing the problems it does.

Thanks for taking the time to respond.
 

Marcelinho87

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Tomorrow night I have to go to a building which employs around 3000 other people with 2000 on site at any one time, they sell clothes online.
 

11101

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Yeah not being a dick but you don’t know more about this subject than me.
About running in general? Probably not.

But i do know that extremely long distance running at any kind of meaningful intensity has proven to be bad for you in multiple ways. There is no possible way to deny that.
 

DOTA

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So Boris said absolutely nothing yesterday? Other than if you congregate outdoors the police might tell you not to. There's been no further measures? He just went on telly to say 'I really mean it this time, guys!' and then disappeared the next day with no one clarifying anything.
 

iKnowNothing

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No there will be new cases, but they hope that they will be at a manageable level, where they can contact trace to put said contacts into lockdown to minimise the spread.
Thanks, I just wish there's no "second wave" over there. That would be brutal.

Italy69,176+5,2496,820+7438,32654,0303,3931,144113
USA49,594+5,860622+6936148,6111,1751502
This table from the world meters website is pretty interesting. I'm not sure how accurate these numbers are but what we see here is that the number of deaths in the US are far far lower than what we're seeing in Italy. Does this really mean that a whole lot of people are recovering from the said infection? Or is there something that the US is doing differently than Italy?

EDIT:

Just noticed that "Total Recovered" in Italy is 8,326 vs mere 361 in the US. I'm guessing a lot of people are still in hospital over there - neither fully recovered, nor deceased. Hope a lot of people recover.
 

Hugh Jass

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Has the virus been completely contained in China? I read somewhere that the lockdown is getting (or has been) removed. Does it mean that if people hunker down for two months, the virus just “goes away”?
It will more than likely come back when they open up things.

Unless we literally have a globalized response to this, which is next to impossible.
 

RedDevil@84

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Makes a lot more sense than the Texas gov. Firstly. it is a stupid idea to say the old men of the country can be sacrificed. And did someone tell the virus to save the businesses and target only the old folks who are no longer needed by this country.
Virus doesn't work that way or doesn't follow any specific orders
 

vodrake

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Thanks, I just wish there's no "second wave" over there. That would be brutal.



This table from the world meters website is pretty interesting. I'm not sure how accurate these numbers are but what we see here is that the number of deaths in the US are far far lower than what we're seeing in Italy. Does this really mean that a whole lot of people are recovering from the said infection? Or is there something that the US is doing differently than Italy?
I think it's possible that it's spreading so quickly in the USA that the no. of deaths hasn't had time to "catch up" so to say. The number of cases with an outcome (positive or negative) in America is so far much, much lower than in Italy even though the total number of cases is rapidly matching up
 

bond19821982

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No, someone else did the table but I just updated it. UK and Italy death tolls were matching for a bit when adjusted and looked ominous and this is just comparing major European nations of similar size.

India is still very early and US is very lopsided with New York and still early with testing considering the population. Perhaps later on India, China, US and Europe might be worth comparing.
Makes sense, thanks mate