SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

One Night Only

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Glad you had time for your little telly show. In the real world however, health service workers are witnessing terrible things and getting worse.

I've deemed your ignorance a mitigating circumstance and shall therefore not be telling you what I really think of you.
It's cool, you can tell me you fancy me. Don't worry about it
 

4bars

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Everyone is looking into it. There is 0 data on it.

Question is: would it be better to decidie which patient has a better prognosis and using the ventilator for that patient rather than losing 2 patients by using one for both, which might be ineffective to begin with? Having to choose which patient to save is going to be horrible.

No kudos for us. Definitely difficult job but not like we are going to do a good job.

And oh yeah almost forgot, even if you had enough ventilators problem is not solved. You still need resp therapists, nurses, icu physicians to take care of the vents and the patients. Right now there seems to be 10-20‰ rate of infection in Healthcare workers. With the disastrous situation with ppe in USA, expect Healthcare workers to get affected more than elsewhere. That just amplifies the problem then.

In Spain there are over 9000 health care workers infected already and is putting even more strain to the problem. They are risking literally their lives for not decent salaries. And putting at risk their families.

Actually I read and article of one health care woker that she said goodbye to her family. Not because she believed that she was about to die, but because she would not be able to even touch them for months. Even living with them, her routine of entering the house. Absolutely everything made her not being able to touch her partner and her kids
 

AllezLesDiables

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The analytics are developed to create projection on constant flux in change to assess decision making; however their accuracy is atrocious because there are far too many variables to address.

The only things that can be measured are rates of change by running massive simulations and examining how different assumptions affect the results.

mav_9me hit it on the head, relying on CFR accuracy is a fools errand because the statistical error is far too large.
Hence the reason you need to look at ventilators, ICU beds and the biggest issue the health and welfare of medical staff.

You can have all this medical equipment made but if the medical staff are not available to use it the efficacy of the medical equipment is rendered next to totally ineffective.

Equipment can be made but it is more difficult and time consuming to train people.
 

Ludens the Red

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There's a lot of people here going to be depressed when the virus eventually disappears. You'll have nothing to moan, whinge and doom monger about. Putting the shits up people seems to be exciting to a lot of people, without even having a clue about anything, just what they've read. Heads full of cartoons fantasizing about a walking dead type scenario ffs.


Watched a programme the other night, well, half watched it, Mrs had it on. All they went on about was negative and worst case scenarios, like ridiculous worst case scenarios. Bad news is news. Good news isn't profitable so they gloss over anything half positive.

While I'm having a moan about this, I'll have a little moan about everyone saying "this is why we needed to fund the NHS more previously" ... No, we needed to stop people taking the piss out the NHS, drug users, obesity, them people who goto the docs for every single cough, parents taking kids for a sneeze. More funding would have been great, but a massive factor is abuse of the system. People getting free boob jobs cos they're depressed and stuff man. That's wrong.

Putting strain on a system/service supposed to be used for good, for ridiculous reasons, obesity man, just stop eating like fecking whales.
Glad you had time for your little telly show. In the real world however, health service workers are witnessing terrible things and getting worse.

I've deemed your ignorance a mitigating circumstance and shall therefore not be telling you what I really think of you.
Whilst I think he could have said a few things differently. He’s not ignorant at all, if you talk to a lot of London Ambulance staff (I happen to do this) one of their massive complaints about the state of the NHS is the abuse and misuse of it by people. We’re British and we’re polite and we don’t like to offend in general so people don’t really mention it.
It’s obvious it’s under funded and the government have handled it atrociously for years (labour included) but if it’s to be fixed all basis have to be covered, there has to be some home truths and a portion of the British public held accountable for their decision making. These people (who are in the minority tbf) are massively affecting those who actually need it and they are wasting resources and more importantly, the time of in particular, the London Ambulance Service.
 

Wibble

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There's a lot of people here going to be depressed when the virus eventually disappears. You'll have nothing to moan, whinge and doom monger about. Putting the shits up people seems to be exciting to a lot of people, without even having a clue about anything, just what they've read. Heads full of cartoons fantasizing about a walking dead type scenario ffs.


Watched a programme the other night, well, half watched it, Mrs had it on. All they went on about was negative and worst case scenarios, like ridiculous worst case scenarios. Bad news is news. Good news isn't profitable so they gloss over anything half positive.

While I'm having a moan about this, I'll have a little moan about everyone saying "this is why we needed to fund the NHS more previously" ... No, we needed to stop people taking the piss out the NHS, drug users, obesity, them people who goto the docs for every single cough, parents taking kids for a sneeze. More funding would have been great, but a massive factor is abuse of the system. People getting free boob jobs cos they're depressed and stuff man. That's wrong.

Putting strain on a system/service supposed to be used for good, for ridiculous reasons, obesity man, just stop eating like fecking whales.
Don't be so silly.
 

Tarrou

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There's a lot of people here going to be depressed when the virus eventually disappears. You'll have nothing to moan, whinge and doom monger about. Putting the shits up people seems to be exciting to a lot of people, without even having a clue about anything, just what they've read. Heads full of cartoons fantasizing about a walking dead type scenario ffs.


Watched a programme the other night, well, half watched it, Mrs had it on. All they went on about was negative and worst case scenarios, like ridiculous worst case scenarios. Bad news is news. Good news isn't profitable so they gloss over anything half positive.

While I'm having a moan about this, I'll have a little moan about everyone saying "this is why we needed to fund the NHS more previously" ... No, we needed to stop people taking the piss out the NHS, drug users, obesity, them people who goto the docs for every single cough, parents taking kids for a sneeze. More funding would have been great, but a massive factor is abuse of the system. People getting free boob jobs cos they're depressed and stuff man. That's wrong.

Putting strain on a system/service supposed to be used for good, for ridiculous reasons, obesity man, just stop eating like fecking whales.
the UK's spending per capita is among the lowest between comparable countries

can you qualify your opinion that it's actually the people's fault and not the governments?
 

Adisa

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There's a lot of people here going to be depressed when the virus eventually disappears. You'll have nothing to moan, whinge and doom monger about. Putting the shits up people seems to be exciting to a lot of people, without even having a clue about anything, just what they've read. Heads full of cartoons fantasizing about a walking dead type scenario ffs.


Watched a programme the other night, well, half watched it, Mrs had it on. All they went on about was negative and worst case scenarios, like ridiculous worst case scenarios. Bad news is news. Good news isn't profitable so they gloss over anything half positive.

While I'm having a moan about this, I'll have a little moan about everyone saying "this is why we needed to fund the NHS more previously" ... No, we needed to stop people taking the piss out the NHS, drug users, obesity, them people who goto the docs for every single cough, parents taking kids for a sneeze. More funding would have been great, but a massive factor is abuse of the system. People getting free boob jobs cos they're depressed and stuff man. That's wrong.

Putting strain on a system/service supposed to be used for good, for ridiculous reasons, obesity man, just stop eating like fecking whales.
So uninformed.
 

Maagge

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I was just asking, I don't know what the British guidelines are.

We came back to Denmark from Ethiopia a week ago and have been in quarantine since. We weren't specifically told to do that, I don't think. It just seemed like the thing to do (plus everyone else we traveled with were doing the same). So another week I'm this summer house and then we'll see what happens.
 

Grinner

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I’ve just worked 14 days in a row in a busy London hospital. More than 3/4 of the patients I’m admitting under acute medicine are possible COVID-19s.

It’s an easy, boring diagnosis - ARDS on the CXR, normal white cell count with lymphopenia and a raised CRP. Management options are incredibly frustrating - all we can do if oxygenate and hope they get better.

It’s mental, and will only get worse - patients who would’ve gone straight to ITU a month ago are being admitted to medical wards. And the ones admitted to ITU haven’t done well so far, although the majority of them are still tubed and might still improve.

Admitted a couple of younger, fit patients from resus today - fit, muscular men in their late 40s with no past medical history (pO2 of 4 on room air!!!). Requiring 15L to barely maintain 85+% O2 sats.

We’re going to see incredibly sad things over the coming months.
How effective is ventilator treatment? Or is it mostly just keeping people alive while they fight the infection themselves? Is there an average time that people need to be on the vent?
 

Ekkie Thump

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I am just making some conjecture. In Germany it is 0.6%. It just cannot be higher than that, considering that if that was the case, then it would have been higher than that. It is extremely likely that it is lower than that (last time I checked, they did not test everyone). In Norway, it actually 0.4%. In South Korea and US is somewhere below 1.5%. In Bahrain it is 0.9%.
The thing about this is that it's a fluid situation and there is constant upward pressure on the death rates in these countries (the number of new deaths is a greater proportion of existing deaths than new cases is of existing cases). Germany was at 0.3% last week, at one stage South Korea was at 0.4, now it's at 1.5.

As of right now the best data for an entire country is without question Iceland and this really should give the clearest picture going forward. They've already tested 3.7% of the entire country. Above and beyond the government tests, they've also got a company (deCode Genetics) that's doing voluntary community testing. The government has a detailed and dedicated page for both: https://www.covid.is/data

To put that in perspective, NY, which has by far the biggest testing program in the states had by yesterday tested 5,319 per million. Iceland has tested 37,371 per million. The current data out of Iceland is encouraging: 890 cases, 97 recovered, 18 hospitalised, 6 in ICU, 2 dead. That's obviously very hopeful but it's clearly not the end of the story either. For instance yesterday there were only 3 people in Iceland's ICUs. I think one of the things widespread testing does besides capturing more people with genuintely asymptotic and milder conditions is that it captures them at earlier stages the disease. There is therefore a greater lag between discovery and death in these countries. That needs to be factored in when attempting to ascertain the true death rate.
 

Penna

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There have been impassioned pleas in Italy from the Minister for the South, where poverty, large family size and poor infrastructure is making the situation much worse than it is in more affluent parts of the country.

Italy's really two countries in one. The wealthy, industrialised northern regions have very little in common with the rural, impoverished south. Unfortunately, when the plans to extend the northern locked-down areas were leaked the night before it happened, many people immediately got on a train or bus to the south where presumably they had their family homes. Now that the measures are the same across the whole of the country, they've gained nothing in terms of avoiding restrictions, and the south is seeing an alarming rise in cases with no means to handle it.

edit - the fact that there is so much "underground economy" which has disappeared overnight there is resulting in people using social media to organise raids on supermarkets to simply take food. Organised crime is playing a part of course, as ever.
 
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massi83

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I am assigning CFR based on the current documented CRFs (not estimates). For example, Germany has a 0.6 documented mortality rate (which is an upper bound on the real mortality rate).

Diamond Princess is a good example, but it also has an extremely skewed age distribution. There were so many more people over 70 than in any country, while the number of young people 0-40 was much less than outside of it. It also does not show how severe were the syndroms. If you are as sick as when you catch the cold, unless you are an NBA player or a senator, you are not gonna get a test (while in DP, everyone got a test). If many people with no symptoms (or mild symptoms) is a thing, then we can expect the majority of them to be on young people. Finally, there have been next to no studies on kids. They are a large number of population, and it could be that many of them don't have symptoms at all.

I don't know how much is the number of people with no to mild symptoms, but I wouldn't be surprised if it is much larger than 31%. After all, to get a test you need to be very sick. If you are just a bit sick or even moderately sick (cold-like) it is probably just stay home and get paracetamol, with you never being documented as a case.
It is not an upper bound. Deaths lag behind, so it could easily rise. People were saying the same thing about S Korea when it was 0.4%, now it is well over 1%. For the record i think true CFR will be around 0.5%-1%. But Germany doesn't provide an upper limit at the moment like you claim
 

massi83

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You're assigning 3% CFR to the 10% percent with non-mild symptoms when the CFR for all cases is estimated to be closer to that. Also note that many estimates for the asymptomatic proportion don't account for the subset of those who later on tend to develop symptoms. One of the first estimates was the Diamond Princess study which found that 50% were asymptomatic. However, they later had revise this as then more than half the asymptomatic proportion went on to develop symptoms, which aligns with what many models are saying (different studies from 17% to 31%).
Do you have links to studies about the asymptotic %. I know of the DP and Vo Euganeo, any others? I do agree with your assessments. But would like to share more studies
 

Hansa

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In the end, with a working medical system, I believe it is well under 0.5%. With a crashed medical system it's essentially 'who doesn't get a ventilator dies'.
I don't disagree with what you've said, but I've seen a couple of interviews with Italian medical staff who've indicated that the survival rate for intubated patients is very low, although that could certainly be a result of not getting treatment quickly enough. The real worry, in my view, is not just the capacity of ICUs (or lack thereof), but rather the huge number of caregivers outside of hospitals (retirement/nursing homes, etc), where maintaining strict hygienic measures is much more difficult. Even in Norway, where staff are given quarantine orders at the slightest suspicion of possible contact with infected people in the outside world, the virus is slowly creeping into these facilities. That is where the numbers could get ugly, no matter how many ventilators any nearby hospital has.
 

massi83

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The thing about this is that it's a fluid situation and there is constant upward pressure on the death rates in these countries (the number of new deaths is a greater proportion of existing deaths than new cases is of existing cases). Germany was at 0.3% last week, at one stage South Korea was at 0.4, now it's at 1.5.

As of right now the best data for an entire country is without question Iceland and this really should give the clearest picture going forward. They've already tested 3.7% of the entire country. Above and beyond the government tests, they've also got a company (deCode Genetics) that's doing voluntary community testing. The government has a detailed and dedicated page for both: https://www.covid.is/data

To put that in perspective, NY, which has by far the biggest testing program in the states had by yesterday tested 5,319 per million. Iceland has tested 37,371 per million. The current data out of Iceland is encouraging: 890 cases, 97 recovered, 18 hospitalised, 6 in ICU, 2 dead. That's obviously very hopeful but it's clearly not the end of the story either. For instance yesterday there were only 3 people in Iceland's ICUs. I think one of the things widespread testing does besides capturing more people with genuintely asymptotic and milder conditions is that it captures them at earlier stages the disease. There is therefore a greater lag between discovery and death in these countries. That needs to be factored in when attempting to ascertain the true death rate.
Iceland data is good exercise. But it is totally skewed. You can see that almost all of the cases found are from government testing, and DeCode is not finding almost any cases, because their testing criteria is totally different. So these numbers can not be compared to other countries. Also age distribution of cases explains the low dead rate so far, as well as the early detection, like you mention.

But this is yet another data point that there just aren't that many asymptotic cases around. Certainly not this imaginery 10x number some are hoping for.
 

fergieisold

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I’ve just worked 14 days in a row in a busy London hospital. More than 3/4 of the patients I’m admitting under acute medicine are possible COVID-19s.

It’s an easy, boring diagnosis - ARDS on the CXR, normal white cell count with lymphopenia and a raised CRP. Management options are incredibly frustrating - all we can do if oxygenate and hope they get better.

It’s mental, and will only get worse - patients who would’ve gone straight to ITU a month ago are being admitted to medical wards. And the ones admitted to ITU haven’t done well so far, although the majority of them are still tubed and might still improve.

Admitted a couple of younger, fit patients from resus today - fit, muscular men in their late 40s with no past medical history (pO2 of 4 on room air!!!). Requiring 15L to barely maintain 85+% O2 sats.

We’re going to see incredibly sad things over the coming months.
are the younger patients tubed or supplemental o2? Hope they are ok.
 

Cassidy

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There are obviously foods that can help boost the immune system. Relevant no?
I’m sure if it would have been helpful for people to eat certain foods. At least one health expert from one of the major countries in the world would have told their citizens by now
 

Pexbo

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If one good thing comes out of this virus, it’s hopefully that the NHS becomes absolutely untouchable for the Tories and the need for public healthcare is cemented in the US.
 

JPRouve

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There are obviously foods that can help boost the immune system. Relevant no?
Not exactly, there aren't foods that help boost the immune system, you need to avoid micronutrient malnutrition, basically have a diverse diet that allows you to get all the micronutrients that you need.
 

Cardboard elk

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At Oslo University Hospital, Scientists say they may have an anti-body ready in 3-4 weeks. If the test works as good as it seems. If/When all is good with that test it will tell us how to handle the pandemic.

Since the virus is so recent in many humans, some time will go before we have all the answers. When some time has passed after the infection, we can say more about the quality of the anti-bodies.

The Anti-body tests can be run at high volumes in machines at hospitals.

The best possible scenario is that the tests shows that we get herd immunity for life from this Virus, like chickenpox. That means no more Covid-19 in a year or two. Or it could be that when the virus hits again, it does not cause as severe symptoms and disease as the first time due to the antibodys left behind. Another scenario can be that the virus mutates enough to avoid the existing antibodies.

Corona will produce antibodies though.

And the infected persons immune defense will first produce immuneglobuling M (UgM). This happens while you are sick or contagious. Call it the intensive phase.

Then after a while, IgM disappears, and the body produces ImmuneGlobulin G (IgG). This gives vital information. If a patient has positiv IgM we now they have a recent infection, maybe active. If one just can detect IgG, we know the patient has been infected earlier. Right now the tests can tell to a certain degree when a person was infected, but in a year that will be impossible.

So now, the question is when our countries will be able to develop these tests, as they will be extremely valuable to tell us what we need to do forward in time. Estimates for Norway at least is that a test will not be finished before earliest a month from now.
 

vidic blood & sand

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I’m sure if it would have been helpful for people to eat certain foods. At least one health expert from one of the major countries in the world would have told their citizens by now
I'm talking about the immune system in general. One of the reasons why people are vulnerable to viruses, is because they have lower immunity. Their body's response as a last resort is what is causing the pneumonia, if I understand the situation correctly.
 

Wumminator

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There are obviously foods that can help boost the immune system. Relevant no?
I eat relatively healthy and at the moment more than ever as I've cut out all booze and takeaways.

But will diet and food have much of an impact? This is a serious question, I've always seen those adverts about 'superfoods' and yogurts being good for your gut, but I don't know how much I believe them.
 

Cassidy

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I'm talking about the immune system in general. One of the reasons why people are vulnerable to viruses, is because they have lower immunity. Their body's response as a last resort is what is causing the pneumonia, if I understand the situation correctly.
I know that. And I repeat if there was a simple solution of eating certain foods I am certain some medical expert would have said.
 

Heardy

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If one good thing comes out of this virus, it’s hopefully that the NHS becomes absolutely untouchable for the Tories and the need for public healthcare is cemented in the US.
I agree but I think this will also lead to a need to really consider how the NHS is run / funded. Surely this has highlight massive gaps in the system that will really need correcting.
 

Lennon7

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:lol: You've not helped yourself here.

The minute I saw your post I thought , hang on, wasn't this the person who ...….
Not seen anything else he’s posted but based on what you’ve quoted how’s it even comparable? People from all countries have been advised to return home, I’ve seen many of my mates catching flights back from Bali and Australia - following governmental advice. People also have to go to the shop?
 

Amar__

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Surprised there's not a lot of media talk about nutrition that can help boost the immune system.
No, that doesn't get half clicks as number of people died, and other horrible news with click bait titles. And even when they make similar article it's based mostly on advertisiment of specific products without much true in it.
 

Penna

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I know that. And I repeat if there was a simple solution of eating certain foods I am certain some medical expert would have said.
I'm taking a liquid supplement made by Haliborange which has Vit D3, echinacea and all sorts of other stuff in it to boost the immune system. No idea if it'll help, but it won't do any harm!