xG under Ralf

Shane88

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To paraphase the top comment from the Reddit thread I saw that tweet on; It's a manager's job to create the conditions where we create attacks. It's the player's jobs to finish them.

Ralf is holding up his end of the bargain, more or less. The players aren't.
 

horsechoker

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Notice how the xG apologists didn't bump this thread after the Atletico game. Atletico, the only half decent team we've faced in 2.5 months under Ralf. Guess it doesn't fit a certain agenda.

It wasn't a good performance but it was an exception to recent performances and it was against one of the best defensive teams of recent times.
 

sullydnl

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Yep.

Over the last six games we're second only to Liverpool in terms of xG as well.

Now obviously a lot of that is due to the easy run of fixtures so it isn't a sign that we're suddenly creating to an extremely high level generally, but it does underline the problems with finishing in recent games.
 

Rightnr

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Notice how the xG apologists didn't bump this thread after the Atletico game. Atletico, the only half decent team we've faced in 2.5 months under Ralf. Guess it doesn't fit a certain agenda.

The agenda is strong with this one.
 

Samid

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It wasn't a good performance but it was an exception to recent performances and it was against one of the best defensive teams of recent times.
It was an exception because it's the only half decent team we've played under Ralf. West Ham and Wolves are the next best we've faced but they're obviously a tier below Atletico. Against WH we had a decent enough xG in the end, solely thanks to the last second tap-in. Against Wolves we lost both the xG and the match.

And let's not kid ourselves with Atletico's defensive record. Before they faced us they had conceded 2+ in 8 of the last 11 league games. They have conceded the same amount as us in a game less. They're a shadow of what they were a year ago.
 

UNITED ACADEMY

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Notice how the xG apologists didn't bump this thread after the Atletico game. Atletico, the only half decent team we've faced in 2.5 months under Ralf. Guess it doesn't fit a certain agenda.

As someone who rate and approve xG, I have to apologise that I didn't bump this thread after Atletico game. I also have to apologise that I didn't bump this thread after the Brighton and Leeds and also after the Watford game on Saturday or Sunday.

It's not because it doesn't fit a certain agenda, it's just that I have been busy!! Hope this helps. Why didn't you post it after the Atl Madrid game anyway?
 

Mike Smalling

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Notice how the xG apologists didn't bump this thread after the Atletico game. Atletico, the only half decent team we've faced in 2.5 months under Ralf. Guess it doesn't fit a certain agenda.

You don't need xG to see we were fortunate to get the result, though, given Atletico hit the woodwork from fairly close range twice.

We (and Ralf) got away with one. In the league, the performances deserve better results, but we are of course suffering from poor finishing.
 

Chipper

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Notice how the xG apologists didn't bump this thread after the Atletico game. Atletico, the only half decent team we've faced in 2.5 months under Ralf. Guess it doesn't fit a certain agenda.

Wouldn't that make them Ralf apologists?

An xG apologist would be someone who thinks xG has value, defends it when it's being attacked and thinks it can used to make a point.

You've just used xG to make a point yourself by posting the xG from that game so you're making no sense. If you don't think it has value why are you using it?
 

The Corinthian

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Our performances have only really turned a corner since the Aston Villa game, which we should have been out of sight with and ended up drawing. The games vs Boro, Soton, Burnley and Watford should all have led to victories, as the performances merited them.

It's encouraging in one sense as we're finally controlling games for 90 mins, and making enough chances to put the games away. The only downside is finishing which is letting us down.

We didn't look at all good vs Atleti in the CL, but name me a team that does? Even Liverpool were lucky to come away with their wins as Atleti missed sitters and played both fixtures with 10 men for the majority of the game.
 

UNITED ACADEMY

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Anyone who watched the first half could see how bad we were in first half vs Atl Madrid. Atl Madrid were all over us with their high intensity game approach and we didn't have one shot on target in first half. The xG itself reflects to it in first half. While in 2nd half, we managed to improve our performance to make it to 50:50 game and the xG itself reflects to it. Once again, you can use xG to reflect team's performance. I know it's a late analysis but it's better than nothing right @Samid ? ;)


 

LuckyScout78

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United old 442 were playing it.

Same street with different names. Same style with different name.

The continental league were copying premier leauge high intensive and physicla pressing style.
After all the years of English domination. Sir Alex, Wenger then Mourinho Chelsea.

It were The France nation team dropping to playing elegance skillful football. To become more physical and intensive. With Makele, = world class ballwinner. Desially and Viera. More physical, more tactic and harder to beat. With the combination of flair, speed and skills in Henry, Pires upfront. The became a complete football team.

Just different name.
 

gerdm07

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Post GW12 when Ole got fired:



Now:



Nothing you would wouldn't expect but backs up the point that underlying performances have certainly improved along with results.
At least we are number 1 in attendance.
 

giorno

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It was an exception because it's the only half decent team we've played under Ralf. West Ham and Wolves are the next best we've faced but they're obviously a tier below Atletico. Against WH we had a decent enough xG in the end, solely thanks to the last second tap-in. Against Wolves we lost both the xG and the match.

And let's not kid ourselves with Atletico's defensive record. Before they faced us they had conceded 2+ in 8 of the last 11 league games. They have conceded the same amount as us in a game less. They're a shadow of what they were a year ago.
Eh. Atletico are kind of a weird team right now

I mean, look at their recent results and the xG:

0.7-0.6 (0-2) L
0.8-0.4 (1-2) L
1.6-0.6 (1-2) L
1.7-0 (2-0) W
0.5-2.1 (2-2)
2.7-0.7 (3-2) W
1.3-1.1 (2-4) L
2.7-2.2 (4-3) W
1-1.1 (0-1) L
0.5-0.7 (3-0) W
1.3-0.4 (1-1) Manchester United
0.7-0.9 (2-0) W

They're doing relatively well in terms of xG. "Beat" both real madrid, sevilla and barcelona, but actually lost those games, and madrid and barcelona beat them comfortably too...
 

NZT-One

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Thats pretty rough... To be fair though, City is terrific in avoiding chances and they were extremely switched on today. I think, even if we wouldn't have been as bad as we have been, they would have comfortably beaten us today. It just confirms that our positive trends are fragile as feck, Atletico and City had us by the balls now, RR needs to find a way, to stabilize that. Be it with 8 man behind the ball. But at least do something. Playing a 4-2-4-0 like today and still being so bad in controlling the ball isn't a great indicator for an understanding of RR wish for control.
 

sullydnl

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If we were trending in this way with a permanent manager, I'd be optimistic even with bad results. Unfortunately with an interim appointment short term results matter a lot more. :(
 

lex talionis

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Our opportunity conversion rate is ridiculous. Against Watford Bruno had an easy square pass to Ronaldo for the open net tap in, but instead took the shot. Two points dropped, fourth place gone.

I’m on board with the epic meltdown here after the defeat to City, but in truth the carnage took place in January and February when we dropped points to bottom feeding clubs.
 

Bocca9978

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Can someone explain regarding xG.
Ronaldo scores a hat trick but has an xG of 0.85
How and why?
 

cyberman

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Can someone explain regarding xG.
Ronaldo scores a hat trick but has an xG of 0.85
How and why?
It’s ridiculous since his second goal can’t be less than 1. It’s more or less a tap in from 2 yards out
 

Classical Mechanic

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Can someone explain regarding xG.
Ronaldo scores a hat trick but has an xG of 0.85
How and why?
The first goal has a very low xG because most shots from that distance do not result in a goal. 2nd goal will have a high xG because it’s a perfect ball close to the goal. The third goal will have a lower xG because headers are lower xG in general and Ronaldo was under significant defensive pressure.

The first goal will have done most of the heavy lifting here.

edit: sorry xG measures how likely it is for a goal to be scored from a certain position. More sophisticated models take into account multiple different factors like defensive pressure, the position of the keeper and the height of the ball when struck, among other things, to further value the chance of a goal being scored in a given situation.
 
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cyberman

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Then you remember his missed chance against Watford…
And an identical chance v Leeds to be fair. At the same time I though XG doesn’t take into account if he scores or misses?
 

Dan_F

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And an identical chance v Leeds to be fair. At the same time I though XG doesn’t take into account if he scores or misses?
No it doesn’t, but it just shows that a chance like that can be missed by someone like Ronaldo, let alone others that aren’t as good.
 

cyberman

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Think about penalties. The xG is roughly 0.75 because players miss 1 in 4 on average. This is a free shot from 12 yards. You’ve seen people miss penalties I assume.
A lot more than tap ins from a few yards out? I understand they can be missed but it’s the perfect chance that should not be missed at any level. I have seen Forlan miss a few open goals, doesn’t mean an open goal is less than 1?
 

Classical Mechanic

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A lot more than tap ins from a few yards out? I understand they can be missed but it’s the perfect chance that should not be missed at any level. I have seen Forlan miss a few open goals, doesn’t mean an open goal is less than 1?
If any player misses an open net it means that it’s less 1 by definition. 1 could only happen if every player scored every time in that position. Keepers can save in that position too. The xG will have been high in that position I think, maybe even 0.7 or something. The first goal very low and the third something like 0.12.
 

Leftback99

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If any player misses an open net it means that it’s less 1 by definition. 1 could only happen if every player scored every time in that position. Keepers can save in that position too. The xG will have been high in that position I think, maybe even 0.7 or something. The first goal very low and the third something like 0.12.
0.02, 0.53 and 0.02 on understat.

https://understat.com/match/16663
 

sullydnl

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People generally underestimate how often the average player fecks up "must score" chances.

Ronaldo's finish on the second actually brushed the goalkeeper's leg on the way in. An inch or so more off and it isn't a goal, despite seemingly being a must score chance.
 

Bocca9978

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The first goal has a very low xG because most shots from that distance do not result in a goal. 2nd goal will have a high xG because it’s a perfect ball close to the goal. The third goal will have a lower xG because headers are lower xG in general and Ronaldo was under significant defensive pressure.

The first goal will have done most of the heavy lifting here.

edit: sorry xG measures how likely it is for a goal to be scored from a certain position. More sophisticated models take into account multiple different factors like defensive pressure, the position of the keeper and the height of the ball when struck, among other things, to further value the chance of a goal being scored in a given situation.
Thanks. So it is complicated to work out then. I don’t see how it helps, maybe only for the xG for the whole team. Rather than individuals.
 

hasanejaz88

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You'd think with the amount of easy chances we have fecked up in recent weeks, Bruno especially, people wouldn't be surprised to see xG for some shots are lower than expected.