Top 4 race: most unpredictable ever?

[Fortitude]

The start to the season has been a curious affair, but the sample size is tiny and doesn't necessarily tell us anything about teams as objective entities. Factoring fitness, or lack thereof, false framing can easily distort perception also.

Having said that, just looking at the sides on paper, there's not much to distinguish between: ourselves, Spurs, Arsenal whilst most seem to assume Chelsea are the third lock for a CL place.

Leicester, Everton and Wolves could fairly be declared the residuals who might last the course.

Seems to me, however, that net result of this window, combined with what we knew of these sides post-lockdown return is that there's barely anything separating them, really. The stronger squads offset with poorer coaches and the weaker squads having to pray they can cope with fixture congestion and their star players remaining fit as well as Covid-19 free.

Is it a fair assessment? Will this be the most 'exciting' top 4 race we've seen?

 

[P-Nut]

Everton have got a strong squad and great coach in Ancelotti, expect them to be the Lecister of last season that break that top 6 and push for top 4.

 

[foolsgold]

I’d say Liverpool & City are absolutely certain. Chelsea very likely.

Its a undignified multiway scramble for the “4th place trophy” we used to mock Wenger for.

Shameful.

 

[Leonzo1]

Reckon Leicester and Wolves won't be much of a threat this season. However Arsenal and Spurs got much stronger, add Everton to the mix and it will be very tight. Chelsea is far from nailed on for 3rd imho, so it will be 7-8 teams competing for the top 4. Interesting stuff ahead

 

[jackal&hyde]

Liverpool and City have hardly covered themselves in glory either. I think the title itself is a lot more open then many would think.

 

[lilcurt]

At present I would predict Liverpool, City, Spurs and Chelsea. So early so can change very quickly but I think on paper those teams are ahead of the others in terms of squads.

Chelsea are probably the most at risk there. I don't rate Lampard, similar to Ole he can't set up a defence.

 

[smi11ie]

If Cavani can teach the lads a little bit about workrate we might scrape top four.

 

[Nou_Camp99]

The first 4 weeks have been an absolute joke. The differing lengths of pre seasons have totally skewed the results for sure.

We will get a better idea of who is going to finish where come end of November. Don't think us United fans will like the results of that either.

 

[Gonçalo Motta]

It's hard to tell after 4 games. Teams like Everton and West Ham won't sustain their current form through the season while I expect Liverpool and Man City to recover and sustain a good form although I'm not really impressed with this Man City side so far.

My guess is that Liverpool wins it this year and I can see this Tottenham side grab the second spot and Chelsea or Man City in the third place.

 

[Pagh Wraith]

Would be a massive upset if any of Liverpool, City or Chelsea were to miss out. The fourth spot is anyone's guess. I had United down for fourth before the season but it cannot be ignored how genuinely bad they've been. Leicester, Wolves, Everton and Spurs all have a chance.

 

[WeePat]

Would be a massive upset if any of Liverpool, City or Chelsea were to miss out. The fourth spot is anyone's guess. I had United down for fourth before the season but it cannot be ignored how genuinely bad they've been. Leicester, Wolves, Everton and Spurs all have a chance.

This has the all the makings of a bonkers season. We'll need to see how the next few weeks go in terms of results, but this could be one of those seasons that cough up a random title winner.

 

[Gio]

Is it a fair assessment? Will this be the most 'exciting' top 4 race we've seen?

Aye, probably the most unpredictable since the 'top 4' became such a thing in the mid-2000s.

 

[Havak]

Even if they have a bit of a stinker by their standards, I cannot see Liverpool or Man City dropping out of the top 4 at least. But I really think the other two sides could be any from Arsenal, Chelsea, Everton, Leicester, Man Utd, Spurs or Wolves. So yes, very unpredictable.

 

[blue blue]

Pointless discussion.

Try again after 10 games.

 

[Wilt]

Wouldn’t rule Leeds out of it. They’ve already played both Pool and City.

Prem dark horses.

 

[Pagh Wraith]

This has the all the makings of a bonkers season. We'll need to see how the next few weeks go in terms of results, but this could be one of those seasons that cough up a random title winner.

True. Definitely need to wait a little until performance data converge a little more. There is no point overanalysing four results although they do tell us a little. Everton do look genuinely good and have done so since Ancelotti came in metrics-wise. Not being in Europe could be a big advantage for them, particularly this season. Wolves would be the other team with that benefit.

I highlighted a few times last season how United's non-penalty output should be concerning them even taking into account that you cannot dismiss penalties entirely as they result from offensive actions. They were solid defensively last season but that seems to have gone out of the window as well. With their performances so far, the points they've already lost and the lack of transfers and general mood at the club you'd have to make them underdogs for a top four finish at this point.

Spurs will be interesting. They were as mid-table as Arsenal last year and I'm not convinced they're that much stronger now even though they are scoring for fun at the moment. There are other teams that I think have a higher chance of getting that fourth spot.

 

[Schmeichel's Cartwheel]

Liverpool, City, Chelsea, United, Spurs, Arsenal, Everton, Wolves, Leicester & Leeds (long shot) all have a chance. That’s literally half the league.

I think it’ll be
1. City
2. Liverpool
3. Spurs
4. Chelsea
5. Arsenal
6. Everton
7. United
8. Wolves
9. Leicester
10. Leeds

But yes, it’s very open.

 

[AneRu]

I think ourselves, City, Chelsea, Spurs, Arsenal and Everton have as much chance as each one of us to make top 4. City are no longer the side they used to be and its clear they are going to have issues replacing their stalwarts like Silva, Aguero, Kompamy and Fernandinho so I expect them to be dragged down into the top four dogfight whilst Chelsea have too many defensive issues to be considered a lock in. We have added some good and experienced players that could be game changing but we need to tighten up the backdoor and do it fast - I think going 3-5-2 for a few weeks or permanently could help stabilize things. Arsenal are a dark horse, Arteta has turned them into a solid outfit but I think they still rely too much on Aubameyang to provide them with goals but they are, too me, much of a threat than Spurs.

 

[ClaytonBlackmoorLeftPeg]

If Everton win their next match, then they have the potential to do a Leicester. I don’t think they are in Europe, and that could be a big factor. We can’t underestimate the power of momentum.

There are a lot of teams competing for the top 4. I would say the only team guaranteed is Liverpool. Clearly City are likely to finish top 4, but they are increasingly inconsistent.

 

[sun_tzu]

Everton have got a strong squad and great coach in Ancelotti, expect them to be the Lecister of last season that break that top 6 and push for top 4.

Everton might benefit from no European football / travel as well - if they keep up their start to the season over the next few months I also wonder if the owner wouldnt spend a fair bit In January if a CL spot still looked realistic as they seem to have big ambitions there

 

[Grande]

I agree it’s opening up, and covid makes it more unpredictable than ever. Coaches build their knowlege on their routines, when to trai hard, when to build form, when to rotate etc. This season everyone is out of their normal run of the mill, so there is bound to be more guesswork involved in what kind of training and resting regimes may work. I think we’ll see more teams tapering off or turning things around than usual, and it might well be some of the usually more stable teams that may struggle with consistency. Or a team doing a Leicester and pushing themselves to thexact right level
Of the extreme and get away with it.

 

[DRM]

Liverpool, City, Chelsea, United, Spurs, Arsenal, Everton, Wolves, Leicester & Leeds (long shot) all have a chance. That’s literally half the league.

I think it’ll be
1. City
2. Liverpool
3. Spurs
4. Chelsea
5. Arsenal
6. Everton
7. United
8. Wolves
9. Leicester
10. Leeds

But yes, it’s very open.

Agree with this

 

[Wilt]

I bet loads of people would have been saying ”Leicester” before they got stuffed 3-0 by Moyes’ boys

 

[Mount's Goatieson]

For me I think the crowdless matches are playing a major part in this. Home teams are becoming careless in defence, away teams are becoming more adventurous in attack leading to those hugh scorelines we are currently seeing and I don't see it stopping anytime soon. Every game is basically a clash on neutral grounds and could be anybody's game.

 

[Vidyoyo]

For me I think the crowdless matches are playing a major part in this. Home teams are becoming careless in defence, away teams are becoming more adventurous in attack leading to those hugh scorelines we are currently seeing and I don't see it stopping anytime soon. Every game is basically a clash on neutral grounds and could be anybody's game.

Good point and it's glorious really. I've never felt the Premier League was as unpredictable as it right now.

 

[Glorio]

Agree - Leeds could have just as easily turned Liverpool over, Arsenal too. I don't think any team will find it easy

 

[Lentwood]

Let’s face it, this season is even more of a farce than the last. Empty stadiums, at least five teams have had no pre-seasons, extended international breaks to play games nobody cares about...

We should have started much later and had a 19 game PL season and a three game CL group stage followed by one-legged ties thereafter

It looks to me like the players at various teams aren’t fit, either mentally or physically. I don’t think we can underestimate the fact that these players, even though they might be mega rich and privileged, are still living through the same restrictions we all are and that must be affecting them

 

[Wilt]

Pointless discussion.

Try again after 10 games.

What’s the point of that?

Wait until there’s a top four breakaway, then call it?

 

[TheLord]

I would put United as the least favourite traditional top-6 side to finish in the top four this season.

 

[bosnian_red]

No idea who will get it but only City and Liverpool are certs to make it IMO.

Chelsea made a lot of signings, but lack a midfield that suits it and lack wingers that suit it. And don't have a manager that can put it all together. I'd guess they make it in but I wouldn't be too convinced. All of the players they signed will need transition time and are pretty young.

United belatedly added some good pieces. But we also started like shit so are already playing catch up. Same manager issues as Chelsea.

Everton started on fire and have no fixture congestion, while having a top manager and look to have a top team.

Spurs and Arsenal made good signings, question marks over some gaps in team but both have europa league that will increase injuries and might be big.

Leicester and Wolves dark horses but think they'll finish a bit further away, as 8th and 9th. Could be wrong!

 

[Bilbo]

You'd have to think that things will settle down after 10 or 12 games, but these are strange times. I wouldn't rule anything out

 

[duffer]

I think some things will almost certainly happen this season, and you can quote me on that.

 

[Botim]

According to the bookies the odds for top 4 are not in our favour...

Liverpool 1/14
Man City 1/10
Chelsea 8/11
Tottenham 15/8
Arsenal 15/8
Man Utd 5/2
Everton 11/4
Leicester 9/2
Wolven 14/1

 

[USREDEVIL]

Top 2 are certain: Pool City
Top 3 = Very likely Chelsea based on last year and what they've done in the market
Top 4 = who knows. United, Tottenham, Arsenal, Leciester. I think we have a 25% chance of top 4.

 

[Cal?]

I’d say Liverpool & City are absolutely certain. Chelsea very likely.

Its a undignified multiway scramble for the “4th place trophy” we used to mock Wenger for.

Shameful.

Except for the fact Wenger used to win that trophy every year yet Woodward seem happy with it every 2 years.

 

[Shiva87]

United can win the title this season I must say. I have lots of confidence in the board and the management. They just delivered a massive upgrade on the squad and Ole is the going to get the most out of them. Wait and watch.

*NOT*

 

[Man of Leisure]

Reckon Leicester and Wolves won't be much of a threat this season. However Arsenal and Spurs got much stronger, add Everton to the mix and it will be very tight. Chelsea is far from nailed on for 3rd imho, so it will be 7-8 teams competing for the top 4. Interesting stuff ahead

This is the way I see it as well.

 

[Rajiztar]

Tottenham will be top 4 in my opinion. Mourinho has players to do his dirty works and kane son bale all are capable of scoring for fun.

 

[calodo2003]

I can confidently predict that we won’t be in the top four come year’s end if no miracle is unearthed in January like Bruno.

 

[2ndTouch]

Right now, Everton finishing Top4 seems the most certain thing to me, provided they don't get really unlucky with injuries. That mix of an experienced coach, experienced and motivated players and no European duty certainly looks like it could get them there.