More like ‘confirms.’
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
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Putin's inner circle losing its power, Russian journalist says:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...-its-power-russian-journalist-says/ar-AAXDgRl
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...-its-power-russian-journalist-says/ar-AAXDgRl
He's obviously conclusively failed on his pre-war objective. Winning Mariupol alone isn't a victory, but annexing Donbas and Kherson region can be presented as a pyrrhic victory. That's east and south Ukraine. If he manages that (big if).
Whether Russia will be able to hold them long term, is another matter. If the Ukrainians choose to fight indefinitely, I also severely doubt it too. But it will depend a lot on Western unity and willingness to bankroll not only the Ukrainian army but the whole country for the foreseeable. Which isn't guaranteed.
By call it a day I mean cease their offensive operations and transition into a defensive war. By all accounts the heavy Russian losses are mostly due to terribly planned forward advances. How the war will shape if Russians achieve their objectives and set themselves up to defend is anyone's guess at the moment.
Things are moving slower in Donetsk than Luhansk for the Russians but then again, if Severodonetsk falls, which is looking likely, things could get messy for Ukraine there as well. I'm assuming, looking at the maps, that they will try to converge on Kramatorsk next from Izyum and Luhansk. And the success or failure of that advance might dictate the outcome of this phase of the war. Either the Russians will exhaust themselves there and the offensive will collapse, or they will claim it and all of Donbas with it.
I don't think the Russians will be facing such terrible personnel losses if they are defending and the ability of Ukraine to wage long term warfare offensive or even attritional warfare will depend heavily on continued western unity and support. I don't think it's sustainable for Russia either way, but if they are there for 10 years it's pretty disastrous for Ukraine as well. They currently don't have access to their ports and no means to export grains.
I feel Ukrainian gains aren't being reported because in the 1st 2 months much was given away of the armys whereabouts, now we just hear of Russian gains. Imo
I don't think so. Their gains are mostly in the north and north east of Kharkiv and they are pretty widely reported, to be honest. At least by those twitter accounts that give daily updates, anyway.
This thread reminds me a bit of the Mueller investigation thread that we all got carried away with, where people were posting everything they wanted to hear, no matter how dumb the source. Some of it was quite similar to this thread in terms of actual content, e.g. the "gossip" reported about Putin/Trump's health and possibility of a coup, etc. The guy Galeev is the Seth Abramson of this thread.
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Western powers will always have a nuanced approach. But one sure thing, Ukraine will be heavily supported throughout this conflict. The US has already committed 40 billion to the cause. It is a strategic bipartisan choice to help Ukraine and inflict maximum losses on Russia, nobody is backing down from that now.
You’re right, Ukraine hasn’t pushed Russia out from Kyiv or Kharkiv.
This is a genuine question: do you (and the other guys above who have uncritically accepted the truth of that tweet) ever think that maybe these posts you read on Twitter are not the truth? I ask because I am 100% certain that if somebody here retweeted some unverified post from a random nobody on Twitter (that tweet you've reacted so strongly to doesn't even have a blue tick) that claimed Ukrainian soldiers were raping Russian babies in the Donbas, you'd dismiss it as Russian nonsense. Yet here, all it's taken is someone to post entirely uncorroborated claims of child rape against Russians and you've instantly jumped to call for torture and murder. While I don't doubt it feels good and acts as a catharsis, it's also dangerous. It shows how easily the uglier instincts of people can be manipulated into calling for violence with nothing more substantive than a baseless paragraph from someone with no credentials.
They deserve to be beaten, flogged, tied and dragged behind horses, emasculated, flayed, and finally crucified.
I've been following this thread from the beginning. I made a lengthy post in the newbies forum about the situation here in Russia (I'm in St Petersburg and have lived here for 20 years). I'm not sure if my 'promotion' to this general forum is necessarily a good thing because to be honest, for all the people on the previous page thanking Glaston for his uncritical retweeting of every single pro-Kiev tweet he can find, this thread is effectively useless as a source of actual information about this war. The vast majority of the stuff being posted is so detached from reality that this thread honestly feels like an alternate universe.
Throughout the course of this thread we've had tweets from "Western sources" that, 2 months ago, claimed the Russian army was going to collapse in 3 days; they claimed Russia's "only tank factory" (ffs) could no longer fix tanks because of the sanctions (a friend of mine owns a company that builds helicopers for Gazprom; as such he also has contracts with the Russian military. Trust me, EVERY sanction is relatively easy to get around provided a) you're ready to pay more and b) China is actively working with you), and they have claimed that "by June there will be nothing left of the Russian economy". Back when the invasion began somebody retweeted a "senior Treasury official" who promised that "the ruble will be rubble by the summer". And my personal favourite: one week ago in this thread there was a retweet about how "Putin has already lost one third of his army" (the Russian army has over 1 million active personnel and 2 million reserve personnel; do the maths. Besides which, 'only' 190,000 have been deployed to Ukraine). People above are thanking Glaston for his service, but you are receiving an entirely lopsided view and understanding of the situation. And from an emotional point of view, I get it, people here want to believe in a certain narrative (Russia is collapsing, Ukraine will be victorious). But I don't believe it's an accurate picture. At the least, it's nowhere near balanced. Heck, 2 weeks ago the SAME PERSON posted a tweet about how Putin was having cancer surgery that day...and then followed it up with another tweet about how Putin had spoken with Macron by phone that day. "Hi Emmanuel, make it quick, I'm about to go under the knife for major surgery for life-threatening blood cancer". That was incidentally the same day Glaston claimed his "psychic friend" had told him Putin was mortally ill. This thread has been a fascinating experiment in just how little people really think about the things they are reading when their emotions have been riled up.
In 3 months Russia has almost entirely taken the whole of the east and south of Ukraine, which powers almost 80% of Ukraine's economy. Without continued Western support of billions per month the Ukrainian economy is going to collapse. In what reality does this constitute Ukraine "winning", as someone said above? How are you "winning" when your leader is having to literally beg everyone day and night for more weapons and money or else his country will collapse within a week? Now the emotion of war is still very strong and the West is still sending billions to Ukraine. As this war grinds on and prices across the UK and Europe continue to skyrocket, are you still going to be content to ship billions of euros to Zelenskiy? For a war that, despite what the Americans are saying (and knowingly lying about), Ukraine almost certainly cannot win? The "counter-offensive" so many of you are pinning your hopes on (again, what happened to the "senior officials" claiming back in March that the Russian army would collapse in 3 days because it can't service its tanks anymore?) isn't going to happen. Just look at the map. Look at what Russia has taken inside 3 months. Look at the numbers of troops each side has. Russia will grind down Ukraine town by town. They have all the time they need to do it because, I'll say again, the sanctions do not work, at least not when we're talking about the war machine. They are easy to evade, and even America has now accepted this (in March they threatened China and India with "serious consequences" if they helped Russia evade the sanctions; they've stopped making such threats because they know there's nothing they can do to stop it from happening).
In my opinion Europe is making a colossal mistake here. I'm NOT talking about their support for Ukraine; that goes without saying. Morally, defending Ukraine is the right thing to do. But politicians are supposed to think long-term and with clear heads, not only about what is "morally" right. Europe is divorcing Russia because Russia "doesn't share our values". Ok, fair enough. Nigeria and Qatar share your values? These are the countries Europe is tying its energy security to? And at 4 to 5 times the cost? This is suicidal. And in fact one amusing unforeseen consequence of Putin's invasion has been the apparent resurrection of socialist ideals in Eastern Europe -
Polish PM Calls on Norway to Share Oil and Gas Profits Windfall
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-22/polish-pm-calls-on-norway-to-share-oil-and-gas-profits-windfall
“But should we be paying Norway gigantic money for gas -- four or five times more than we paid a year ago? This is sick,” he said. “They should share these excess profits. It’s not normal, it’s unjust. This is an indirect preying on the war started by Putin.”
I mean, yeah, did you seriously not realise that cutting yourselves off from cheap Russian oil and gas would mean you'd end up paying 5 times more for your energy? At a time when the cost of living is already going through the roof? Germany is now decrying its relationship with Russia over the last 3 decades, but it is that relationship that saw Germany become the industrial centre of Europe, because its economy relies entirely on a constant supply of cheap energy. Kiss goodbye to that.
I recognise what I'm writing here will not be popular, but honestly, this thread is crying out for 'the other side' of the issue. I believe that in the years to come, Europe is going to massively suffer from what they are doing now. Russia will not. I think Europe is swimming blindly onto a massive hook, one that will only become fully obvious when 27 EU states start squabbling over a limited reserve of Nigerian, Norwegian and Qatari oil and gas (see the above 'spat' between Poland and Norway). At the very least they should leave themselves the OPTION of returning to Russia for various commodities in the future, if and when - shock, horror - Nigeria and Qatar don't actually turn out to be "reliable partners that share our Western values". But they're not, they're being pressured to make it a permanent and irreversible divorce, and young and inexperienced politicians (most notably Baerbock in Germany, who is a staggeringly reckless and ill-informed person) are walking straight into a very risky situation. The moment the EU starts to fraсture (as I believe it will) there's going to be a chaotic scramble over energy. The biggest strategic mistake the West is making is trying to isolate Russia from the global economy. It can't and won't ever happen, despite the narrative their people are being fed. The West is being guided by the kind of emotion we've seen in this thread, a level of emotion that incapacitates critical thinking and leads people to think that Ukraine is actually going to 'win' this war and (as someone suggested 2 pages ago) even "kick Russia out of Crimea within 3 years" (in no reality will that happen).
This post may receive some strong pushback, but all I suggest is that people do this: go back to late February/early March in this thread. Read a few pages of posts. According to all those tweets from all those "senior Western officials", the Russian economy had about 3 months to live. Now here we are 3 months later. The West gave Russia its biggest hit that was meant to knock it out and Russia quite easily absorbed it (now the EU have spent 3 weeks squabbling among themselves about a 6th packet of sanctions instead of having the brains to realise that they will only continue to harm themselves the more they impose them). The economy has not collapsed, the ruble is the strongest performing currency this year (via maniupation, yes, but the point remains that the West said it would be "rubble" by now), and our prices are not rising anything like they are in England (where my parents live). Yet despite this, the exact same Twitter folk who made nonsensical prediction after nonsensical prediction back in March are still, to this day, being trusted to give an accurate take on this war. By the sheer volume of the tweets, the avalanche of posts about every Russian tank, machine gun and bullet that has been taken out of action (with not one single post about Ukrainian losses - I'll say one last time, look at the map), this thread has basically been turned into the Twitter feed of the Ukrainian Ministry of Information, and I don't think it's helped anyone.
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The difference is that the well-studied Russian military analysts who believed in the might and formidability of the Russian army and who predicted that the Russian invasion would happen as it did in February from last year have been the ones to change their views on how this war will proceed and that a long-term conflict will favor Ukraine. It should be noted actually that these analysts also predicted that Russia will make gains in the Donbas offensive. The issue however is that these tactical gains would not be made in such a way that would allow them to achieve a strategic victory:
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and an update to this on May 14th:
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Michael Kofman, the Russian military analyst, agreed with this specific analysis on a recent Twitter Spaces.
The Russian Ground Forces (the Army) absolutely does not have 1 million active + 2 million reserve personnel.
Do we know the head count of Ukranian forces active in the war? We hear stories of morale of Russian soldiers but hard to imagine the same not happening on the Ukranian side. Wonder how long they keep their war spirits high, got to eventually tire and break.
The Jomini account is top notch stuff
It's the pride flag but with added Ukranian colours, i.e. it's meant to symbolize that the LGBT+ community supports Ukraine. Obviously nazis aren't very LGBT+ friendly, so she's either saying that the support is unwarranted or will be unappreciated.
I think this is just as misinformed as Glaston's Ukraine Circlejerkus tbh. You premise your argument in large part upon the idea that oil and gas can't be phased out of the economy when we all know we have to in order to save life on earth. It can and will be done, the only questions are will it be too late and what will be the price we pay for delay.
And I think there's a fairly sizable difference between Nigeria and Qatar being a bit naughty but not invading anyone, and Russia invading a European neighbour with the stated aim of taking over the whole of "Eurasia" because Russian strength > Western weakness. Oh and let's throw in a nice bit of genocide while we're at it.
So, blather. That’s kinda what I figured.
Not sure about the numbers of active forces but a petition was given to Zelenskiy 3 days ago asking him to allow conscription aged males to leave the country (men aged from 18 to 60 are still banned from leaving Ukraine), and he refused. He also extended martial law for a further 90 days. They don't get posted in this thread but there are many, many accounts of Ukrainian men who want nothing to do with this fight, and Zelenskiy's claims last week that he can "arm 1 million people" if only the West sends him more weapons went down very well in the Western media (the target audience for almost everything he says), but not in Ukraine. Most people here in St Petersburg have either friends, colleagues or relatives in Ukraine now and for the most part, the men there (I mean who aren't soldiers) just want to be with their families again. For obvious reasons the Western media have carefully crafted an image of Ukraine as the bravest nation of warriors to ever fight a war, because this war is riveting good-vs-evil entertainment for most Western people, but honestly they're the same as the rest of us would be: afraid and missing their wives, girlfriends, sisters, mothers and daughters, many of whom have been scattered across Europe.
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Unfortunately, there aren't many brave Russians out there. Most Russians just want to believe their Fuhrer. However, there are a few, here is one:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...lomat-in-geneva-resigns-over-ukraine-invasion
‘Warmongering, lies and hatred’: Russian diplomat in Geneva resigns over Ukraine invasion
“The decision was very simple,” said Bondarev. “When you see that your country is doing the worst things and being a civil servant you’re somehow related to that, it’s your decision just to terminate your connection with the government. We all must be responsible. And I don’t want to have any responsibility for what I don’t approve of.”
Bondarev published the statement on his Facebook and LinkedIn accounts and also sent copies to diplomats and media outlets. He said he had walked into work on Monday, submitted his resignation, and walked out.
“The decision was made on February 24. But it took some time to gather some resolve to make it,” he said.
Hillel Neuer, the executive director of the Geneva-based human rights organisation UN Watch, called Bondarev a “hero”.
“We are now calling on all other Russian diplomats at the United Nations – and worldwide – to follow his moral example and resign,” he said.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...lomat-in-geneva-resigns-over-ukraine-invasion
‘Warmongering, lies and hatred’: Russian diplomat in Geneva resigns over Ukraine invasion
“The decision was very simple,” said Bondarev. “When you see that your country is doing the worst things and being a civil servant you’re somehow related to that, it’s your decision just to terminate your connection with the government. We all must be responsible. And I don’t want to have any responsibility for what I don’t approve of.”
Bondarev published the statement on his Facebook and LinkedIn accounts and also sent copies to diplomats and media outlets. He said he had walked into work on Monday, submitted his resignation, and walked out.
“The decision was made on February 24. But it took some time to gather some resolve to make it,” he said.
Hillel Neuer, the executive director of the Geneva-based human rights organisation UN Watch, called Bondarev a “hero”.
“We are now calling on all other Russian diplomats at the United Nations – and worldwide – to follow his moral example and resign,” he said.
No, I premise my argument upon the idea that it will take decades to phase out oil and gas, and that a lot of the resources that will be needed to switch over to greener energy are also located in Russia (there's a reason America is calling upon Europe to dump Russian oil and gas in order to "stop financing Putin's war machine" while nevertheless continuing to buy Russian uranium for itself). Additionally, I'm not sure how asking the likes of Venezuela to start drilling again to make up for lost Russian oil is going to help "save life on earth".
As for your 2nd paragraph, Russia does not have the "stated aim of taking over the whole of Eurasia", and it's this kind of nonsense that isn't helping anyone have a clear picture of either the reasons for this conflict or the direction in which it's heading.
Legit lol'd at Nigeria and Qatar being "a bit naughty" by the way.
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These stories keep being reported and it's truly appalling if they're all true. It's hard to understand how groups of soldiers could commit such barbaric acts against children. One or two paedophiles in a regiment/battalion seems plausible. But how the feck do you suggest committing these sorts of vile acts to 4-5 other men and not only not get the shit kicked out of you but they actually think it's a great idea and go along with it.
Many people have said the same thing. And retired Army colonels usually do not blame their Prime Minister without reason. It is unfortunate that German journalists do not investigate the relationship of the current SPD with Russia, "a spider web of contacts with Russia":
https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-social-democrats-russia-and-the-failures-of-the-past/a-61556022
Who does enlist in the Russian Army? It is not the average educated Russian citizen. It is more than one or two of them who are mentally disturbed.
And if their commanders fill them with hate, telling them that they are fighting Nazis, and that they can do to the devils whatever they want...
Yeah mate I'm sure there must be issues that could go some way to explaining how these awful things can happen but it's still hard to wrap your head around how not one but multiple people could do these sorts of things.
I've not heard any of this other than that tweet. Any clue where he's supposed to have said that?
Here is what I found using Google. It has links to German TV programs.
https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-po...win-german-elites-prefer-russian-victory.html
Michael Flynn is clearly the rule here. Top marks.
Thanks, that article linked a tweet that contained the original statement (In German). The tweets translation is a bit misleading, he's saying he fears so, not that he thinks so, but worrying none the less (even if I don't really trust this guy, it's his party that was in power the last 16 years and contributed to the clusterfeck of a situation Germany is in now concerning energy and the military).
No, not legit. Putin is on our state news almost every night holding interviews with somebody or other to discuss whatever's happened that day. That tweet says: "Allegedly, Putin was out of reach May 17-19 for all but N. Patrushev" (and its source for this claim is a Telegram channel with a history of writing nonsense). On May 18th Putin was on TV talking to Sergei Chemezov, the CEO of Rostec:
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68437
In a subsequent tweet that guy (Anders Aslund) writes: "His alleged first real meeting was on May 23 with Lukashenka, who is trusted to keep quiet, but Putin did not look well on their video" (why would it even be necessary for him to "keep quiet" if their meeting showing Putin's frailty was being filmed??). The Seige of Mariupol finally ended on May 20th when the Azov fighters surrendered. It was huge news here and Putin was on TV frequently talking about the events of those particular 3 days of "evacuation" (May 20th - May 22nd) and holding interviews with various people in the defence ministry. So, no, his "first real meeting" was not with Lukashenko on May 23rd.
It's yet more shoddy 'journalism' from a guy who's presenting himself as an authority yet is just mindlessly retweeting whatever unchecked garbage he comes across without taking even 5 minutes to verify it ("middle of the night surgery", who seriously believes this nonsense?). He just prefaces every claim with 'allegedly" as though that relinquishes him of the burden of verifying the information he promulgates, which in this case would have taken him less than 3 minutes.
First everyone was saying Putin has blood cancer, now it's shifted to abdomen cancer, someone a week back on here retweeted some clown in the Ukrainian government saying he has "multiple fatal diseases all at once". Don't get me wrong I get why this happens, it's a common tactic to depict the enemy leader as being infirm or impaired, but from what I see on TV every day, he isn't. For 2 months now people have been posting on Twitter that he's been disappearing for emergency cancer-related surgery (first it was late April, then early May, now mid-May), and he simply hasn't. It's another example of what I wrote above - indiscriminate gibberish being uncritically peddled by the political equivalents of transfer window in-the-knows, and it isn't helping anybody develop a realistic picture of where all this is going.
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Thanks!
Russia was one of the very first if not the first country to legitimize the Junta there.
Just because the Junta buys weapons from them (well, one of the reasons).
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Slowly, very very slowly, and only after a lot of pressure, Germany makes a decision... and the EU follows... ("Germany was initially opposed to the ban, but recently shifted its position amid pressure from Berlin's allies." )
https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-eu-em...hin-days-says-germany-live-updates/a-61909793
Ukraine: EU embargo on Russian oil 'within days,' says Germany
German Economy Minister said the EU was close to finally agreeing on a ban on Russian oil imports as the war in Ukraine enters the fourth month. Follow DW for the latest.
https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-eu-em...hin-days-says-germany-live-updates/a-61909793
Ukraine: EU embargo on Russian oil 'within days,' says Germany
German Economy Minister said the EU was close to finally agreeing on a ban on Russian oil imports as the war in Ukraine enters the fourth month. Follow DW for the latest.
Russians are criminals. Read this article by the Guardian. The West should enforce full embargo for many years, even after Putin is dead. The Russians should pay for all this destruction they have caused.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...the-guardian-documented-russia-use-of-weapons
Ukraine destruction: how the Guardian documented Russia’s use of illegal weapons
Cluster bombs, fléchettes and unguided missiles on residential areas: as prosecutors investigate alleged Russian war crimes in Ukraine, our reporters reveal the evidence they discovered on the ground
At about midnight on 1 March 2022, a Russian air force jet dropped a series of 250kg Soviet-era explosives over Borodyanka, north of Kyiv. They were powerful FAB-250 bombs, designed to hit military targets such as enemy fortifications and bunkers. There were no such structures, however, in this quiet town of 13,000 people.
The bombs fell on at least five residential buildings, splitting them in two. Dozens of bodies were found under the rubble when the Russians withdrew from the Kyiv region in early April, leaving in their path a gigantic crime scene that Ukrainian prosecutors investigating alleged war crimes by Russia and its president, Vladimir Putin, have been working on for weeks.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...the-guardian-documented-russia-use-of-weapons
Ukraine destruction: how the Guardian documented Russia’s use of illegal weapons
Cluster bombs, fléchettes and unguided missiles on residential areas: as prosecutors investigate alleged Russian war crimes in Ukraine, our reporters reveal the evidence they discovered on the ground
At about midnight on 1 March 2022, a Russian air force jet dropped a series of 250kg Soviet-era explosives over Borodyanka, north of Kyiv. They were powerful FAB-250 bombs, designed to hit military targets such as enemy fortifications and bunkers. There were no such structures, however, in this quiet town of 13,000 people.
The bombs fell on at least five residential buildings, splitting them in two. Dozens of bodies were found under the rubble when the Russians withdrew from the Kyiv region in early April, leaving in their path a gigantic crime scene that Ukrainian prosecutors investigating alleged war crimes by Russia and its president, Vladimir Putin, have been working on for weeks.
What does it have to do with it? There’s tons of speculative articles and baseless “news” in this thread alongside with real information. We (and I’m mostly talking about Glaston here) need to be at least somewhat conscious about the quality of the reported information.
To be fair, they’re still fighting on their own land with an overwhelming support on the ground & with a clear objective. They have a huge queue of volunteers willing to join the army — bit at the moment they have more men that equipment.
The main issue with Russian moral isn’t even the fact that the war is tiring — this is true for Ukrainians as well, it’s that they don’t really know what they’re fighting for and have to operate on a hostile territory with civilians treating them (and rightly so) as occupants.
Individual posters can decide for themselves about the degree of speculation or "baselessness" in each cited news item.
For example, if the UK MoD give an estimate of at least 15,000 dead Russians, whilst French intelligence estimates give a figure of 28,000, and the Ukrainian government says 30,000 .... then which of these is "baseless" and/or "speculative"? I would say that each of these is real information (i.e. these are real news reports), and each poster can decide for themselves about how accurate the information is.