Revenue Inflation Adjusted Transfers

[bringbackbebe]

With so many historical comparisons made of late, I've been wondering how much we've spent historically, adjusted for revenue inflation? United revenues has increased from about 150m in 2001 to 600m now (could have been more had we been successful on the pitch now as we were then). There's also been little revenue inflation post covid, so I'm cutting these 3 years out. That leaves us with about 8% a year YoY growth in revenue. With increased revenue, there is more potential to spend. It's a simplistic assumption, but I'll take this figure as a rough estimate for adjusting transfer fees historically to 2022 values.

The reason for doing this is simple - have a look at top 10 transfer fee paid by us - almost all of them are in the recent 3-4 seasons.

Season Start​	Player​	Fee £​
2016​	Paul Pogba​	89,000,000​
2022​	Antony​	86,000,000​
2019​	Harry Maguire​	80,000,000​
2017​	Romelu Lukaku​	75,000,000​
2021​	Jadon Sancho​	73,000,000​
2022​	Casemiro​	70,000,000​
2014​	Ángel Di María​	59,700,000​
2022​	Lisandro Martínez​	56,700,000​
2019​	Aaron Wan-Bissaka​	50,000,000​
2018​	Fred​	47,000,000​

After adjusting for revenue inflation, the top 10 table looks more like this & for me this makes far more sense:

Season Start​	Player​	Fee £​	2022 Eq. Fee £​	Position​
2001​	Juan Veron​	28,100,000​	141,450,727​	CM​
2016​	Paul Pogba​	89,000,000​	141,231,815​	CM​
2002​	Rio Ferdinand​	27,550,000​	128,409,369​	CB​
2014​	Ángel Di María​	59,700,000​	110,500,534​	Winger​
2017​	Romelu Lukaku​	75,000,000​	110,199,606​	ST​
2004​	Wayne Rooney​	27,000,000​	107,892,526​	ST​
2019​	Harry Maguire​	80,000,000​	100,776,960​	CB​
2001​	Ruud Van Nistelrooy​	19,000,000​	95,642,841​	ST​
2008​	Demitar Berbatov​	30,750,000​	90,318,704​	ST​
2022​	Antony​	86,000,000​	86,000,000​	Winger​

That's a success rate of 3 (Rio, Rooney, RVN) and a flop rate of 5. Antony is still up for grabs & Berbatov was decent. Pogba fan boys, stay away - he's a flop. Big signings that blow the market are still a mixed bag.

In terms of seasons, we look like this:

Spending Rank​	Season Start​	Total Fee £​	Total 2022 Eq. Fee £​
1​	2001​	57,000,000​	286,928,522​
12​	2002​	29,050,000​	135,400,805​
5​	2003​	53,350,000​	230,242,651​
16​	2004​	27,200,000​	108,691,730​
19​	2005​	19,500,000​	72,150,351​
21​	2006​	18,600,000​	63,722,533​
8​	2007​	61,750,000​	195,881,444​
17​	2008​	35,750,000​	105,004,672​
22​	2009​	21,000,000​	57,112,098​
20​	2010​	27,200,000​	68,494,227​
14​	2011​	52,900,000​	123,343,703​
11​	2012​	63,000,000​	136,012,274​
13​	2013​	67,700,000​	135,332,613​
2​	2014​	145,500,000​	269,310,346​
9​	2015​	103,600,000​	177,552,194​
4​	2016​	149,000,000​	236,444,275​
7​	2017​	146,000,000​	214,521,899​
18​	2018​	67,530,000​	91,873,819​
3​	2019​	192,000,000​	241,864,704​
15​	2020​	98,700,000​	115,123,680​
10​	2021​	127,500,000​	137,700,000​
6​	2022​	225,600,000​	225,600,000​

1. There's no reason to raise eye brows if we spend another 200m this summer. That's about the 3rd quartile of what we've been doing historically.
2. We've spent about the same in the last 5 years as we did between 2001-2006. The difference was we had less competition from other clubs back then and we had a bigger leverage to make mistakes.
3. Our adjusted spending increased from 132m a year on an average between 2001 and 2010 to 174m a year between 2011-2020 with little to show for in results. Mismanagement, not surprising.
4. The period between 2004 and 2010 is perhaps the best in terms of our value for money purchases where we unearthed players like Vidic & Evra and got VDS in. Hopefully, we can get back here soon with the scouting rejig.
5. We've spent on an average the same pre and post Glazer takeover, based on the adjusted figures (~155m a season)

For those complaining about Osimhen costing 100m+, all our top strikers have cost that much. Fergie has always preferred to spend big here. This is not an area we should cheap out unless with backups.

Season Start​	Player​	Fee £​	2022 Eq. Fee £​	Position​
2017​	Romelu Lukaku​	75,000,000​	110,199,606​	ST​
2004​	Wayne Rooney​	27,000,000​	107,892,526​	ST​
2001​	Ruud Van Nistelrooy​	19,000,000​	95,642,841​	ST​
2008​	Demitar Berbatov​	30,750,000​	90,318,704​	ST​
2015​	Anthony Martial​	35,000,000​	59,983,849​	ST​
2003​	Louis Saha​	12,820,000​	55,327,288​	ST​
2012​	Robin Van Persie​	22,000,000​	47,496,350​	ST​
2015​	Memphis Depay​	25,000,000​	42,845,607​	ST​
2001​	Diego Forlan​	6,900,000​	34,733,453​	ST​
2003​	Alan Smith **​	7,000,000​	30,209,907​	ST​
2007​	Carlos Tevez (Loan)​	9,000,000​	28,549,522​	ST​
2010​	Javier Hernandez​	6,000,000​	15,109,021​	ST​

 

[git_united]

Hmm, so a revenue based indication of our willingness to spend on these players in today’s markets. You might want to eliminate pre-LBO transfers—completely different regime.

 

[tenpoless]

So if I understand it right, if you add global inflation on top of revenue inflation, Veron would cost way more than £ 141,450,727. Maybe almost £ 250m.

 

[bringbackbebe]

So if I understand it right, if you add global inflation on top of revenue inflation, Veron would cost way more than £ 141,450,727. Maybe almost £ 250m.

Revenue inflation is basically global inflation + real increase due to more streams of revenue from marketing/commercial/tv rights etc. Global inflation is already a part of it.

Hmm, so a revenue based indication of our willingness to spend on these players in today’s markets. You might want to eliminate pre-LBO transfers—completely different regime.

The average adjusted spending the is same, pre and post LBO. That's one of the points I added. Our spending pattern has not changed, we've just become dumber in the transfer market.

 

[tenpoless]

Revenue inflation is basically global inflation + real increase due to more streams of revenue from marketing/commercial/tv rights etc. Global inflation is already a part of it.

I see. Thanks for clearing that up. It gives you an idea on how much the transfer fees actually cost the club. Sometimes plain numbers dont show the real picture. Good thread.

 

[Gazza]

Interesting OP!

 

[GifLord]

How is Veron 141m and Rio 128m when Rio less than a year later cost more than Veron - 46m€ vs 42,6m€?

 

[bringbackbebe]

How is Veron 141m and Rio 128m when Rio less than a year later cost more than Veron - 46m€ vs 42,6m€?

Most likely Pounds to Euro conversion since the figures are in Pounds. In my record, Rio costs 27.55m Pounds a year after Veron cost 28.1m pounds. If I remember right, Rio originally cost 29.3m but we paid lower due to an early settlement to Leeds due to their financial situation. The transfer fee are also estimates, and could be off a little on both sides. The figures are meant to be used as an overview of the trend over years.

 

[GifLord]

Most likely Pounds to Euro conversion since the figures are in Pounds. In my record, Rio costs 27.55m Pounds a year after Veron cost 28.1m pounds. If I remember right, Rio originally cost 29.3m but we paid lower due to an early settlement to Leeds due to their financial situation. The transfer fee are also estimates, and could be off a little on both sides. The figures are meant to be used as an overview of the trend over years.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/football/eng_prem/2140871.stm
BBC article from 2002 has Veron at £28.1m and Ferdinand £30m

 

[bringbackbebe]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/football/eng_prem/2140871.stm
BBC article from 2002 has Veron at £28.1m and Ferdinand £30m

I think this is the event I referred to : 29.3m - (3.25m-1.5m) = 27.55m. The initial agreed figure was higher, but we ended up paying them earlier, so we paid less. Could be off.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/man-utd-leeds-settle-ferdinand-payment-1.968935

 

[ROFLUTION]

Interesting OP.

One of the conclusions is that we've been bad with the spending lately, but surely the competition from rivals has added to us being less succesful. So the same amount of (inflation-adjusted) money just doesn't cut it anymore?

Good example is that if City gets their trophies taken away, we'd be 3 premier league trophies richer.

 

[DevilRed]

All this talk of Veron and Ferdinand makes me feel old.

When we bought Rio, we caught alot of shite from the media and opposition fans because we spent such a huge amount of money on a centreback. It was unheard of back then.

Rio didn't exactly hit the ground running either.

 

[King7Eric]

Someone needs to show this to Souness. It blows away all arguments that the Glazers have invested sufficiently into the team. They invest but never sufficiently, especially as we are up against juggernauts like City. As someone pointed out, when we were the top dogs we could afford the odd big flop, now due to the fact that we are in such a competitive environment, and the fact that our owners will only sanction a couple of big transfers every year on average, we need to get every one of them right, which just isn't possible for any club.

Big money spending nowadays means how quickly can you write off an expensive flop and buy a replacement, something we struggle to do.

 

[Hammondo]

With so many historical comparisons made of late, I've been wondering how much we've spent historically, adjusted for revenue inflation? United revenues has increased from about 150m in 2001 to 600m now (could have been more had we been successful on the pitch now as we were then). There's also been little revenue inflation post covid, so I'm cutting these 3 years out. That leaves us with about 8% a year YoY growth in revenue. With increased revenue, there is more potential to spend. It's a simplistic assumption, but I'll take this figure as a rough estimate for adjusting transfer fees historically to 2022 values.

The reason for doing this is simple - have a look at top 10 transfer fee paid by us - almost all of them are in the recent 3-4 seasons.

Season Start​	Player​	Fee £​
2016​	Paul Pogba​	89,000,000​
2022​	Antony​	86,000,000​
2019​	Harry Maguire​	80,000,000​
2017​	Romelu Lukaku​	75,000,000​
2021​	Jadon Sancho​	73,000,000​
2022​	Casemiro​	70,000,000​
2014​	Ángel Di María​	59,700,000​
2022​	Lisandro Martínez​	56,700,000​
2019​	Aaron Wan-Bissaka​	50,000,000​
2018​	Fred​	47,000,000​

After adjusting for revenue inflation, the top 10 table looks more like this & for me this makes far more sense:

Season Start​	Player​	Fee £​	2022 Eq. Fee £​	Position​
2001​	Juan Veron​	28,100,000​	141,450,727​	CM​
2016​	Paul Pogba​	89,000,000​	141,231,815​	CM​
2002​	Rio Ferdinand​	27,550,000​	128,409,369​	CB​
2014​	Ángel Di María​	59,700,000​	110,500,534​	Winger​
2017​	Romelu Lukaku​	75,000,000​	110,199,606​	ST​
2004​	Wayne Rooney​	27,000,000​	107,892,526​	ST​
2019​	Harry Maguire​	80,000,000​	100,776,960​	CB​
2001​	Ruud Van Nistelrooy​	19,000,000​	95,642,841​	ST​
2008​	Demitar Berbatov​	30,750,000​	90,318,704​	ST​
2022​	Antony​	86,000,000​	86,000,000​	Winger​

That's a success rate of 3 (Rio, Rooney, RVN) and a flop rate of 5. Antony is still up for grabs & Berbatov was decent. Pogba fan boys, stay away - he's a flop. Big signings that blow the market are still a mixed bag.

In terms of seasons, we look like this:

Spending Rank​	Season Start​	Total Fee £​	Total 2022 Eq. Fee £​
1​	2001​	57,000,000​	286,928,522​
12​	2002​	29,050,000​	135,400,805​
5​	2003​	53,350,000​	230,242,651​
16​	2004​	27,200,000​	108,691,730​
19​	2005​	19,500,000​	72,150,351​
21​	2006​	18,600,000​	63,722,533​
8​	2007​	61,750,000​	195,881,444​
17​	2008​	35,750,000​	105,004,672​
22​	2009​	21,000,000​	57,112,098​
20​	2010​	27,200,000​	68,494,227​
14​	2011​	52,900,000​	123,343,703​
11​	2012​	63,000,000​	136,012,274​
13​	2013​	67,700,000​	135,332,613​
2​	2014​	145,500,000​	269,310,346​
9​	2015​	103,600,000​	177,552,194​
4​	2016​	149,000,000​	236,444,275​
7​	2017​	146,000,000​	214,521,899​
18​	2018​	67,530,000​	91,873,819​
3​	2019​	192,000,000​	241,864,704​
15​	2020​	98,700,000​	115,123,680​
10​	2021​	127,500,000​	137,700,000​
6​	2022​	225,600,000​	225,600,000​

1. There's no reason to raise eye brows if we spend another 200m this summer. That's about the 3rd quartile of what we've been doing historically.
2. We've spent about the same in the last 5 years as we did between 2001-2006. The difference was we had less competition from other clubs back then and we had a bigger leverage to make mistakes.
3. Our adjusted spending increased from 132m a year on an average between 2001 and 2010 to 174m a year between 2011-2020 with little to show for in results. Mismanagement, not surprising.
4. The period between 2004 and 2010 is perhaps the best in terms of our value for money purchases where we unearthed players like Vidic & Evra and got VDS in. Hopefully, we can get back here soon with the scouting rejig.
5. We've spent on an average the same pre and post Glazer takeover, based on the adjusted figures (~155m a season)

For those complaining about Osimhen costing 100m+, all our top strikers have cost that much. Fergie has always preferred to spend big here. This is not an area we should cheap out unless with backups.

Season Start​	Player​	Fee £​	2022 Eq. Fee £​	Position​
2017​	Romelu Lukaku​	75,000,000​	110,199,606​	ST​
2004​	Wayne Rooney​	27,000,000​	107,892,526​	ST​
2001​	Ruud Van Nistelrooy​	19,000,000​	95,642,841​	ST​
2008​	Demitar Berbatov​	30,750,000​	90,318,704​	ST​
2015​	Anthony Martial​	35,000,000​	59,983,849​	ST​
2003​	Louis Saha​	12,820,000​	55,327,288​	ST​
2012​	Robin Van Persie​	22,000,000​	47,496,350​	ST​
2015​	Memphis Depay​	25,000,000​	42,845,607​	ST​
2001​	Diego Forlan​	6,900,000​	34,733,453​	ST​
2003​	Alan Smith **​	7,000,000​	30,209,907​	ST​
2007​	Carlos Tevez (Loan)​	9,000,000​	28,549,522​	ST​
2010​	Javier Hernandez​	6,000,000​	15,109,021​	ST​

Looking at berbatov, inflation has not been 200% since 2008.

 

[bringbackbebe]

Looking at berbatov, inflation has not been 200% since 2008.

Our 2008 revenue was about 200-225m - 1/3rd of where we are in 2022. Berbatov's fee was ~30m, so that's ~90m equivalent of today. Of course, increases/decreases are not linear. What I've done like I mentioned is a linear approximation. 8% over 14 years is 2.93 times.

 

[Drainy]

We paid Leeds £27.5m for Rio

They were so desperate for cash that they accepted less to settle the amount outstanding.

Bargain

 

[Hammondo]

Our 2008 revenue was about 200-225m - 1/3rd of where we are in 2022. Berbatov's fee was ~30m, so that's ~90m equivalent of today. Of course, increases/decreases are not linear. What I've done like I mentioned is a linear approximation. 8% over 14 years is 2.93 times.

That's a pointless statistic though, what are you trying to suggest it shows?

 

[Scandi Red]

Season Start​	Player​	Fee £​	2022 Eq. Fee £​	Position​
2001​	Juan Veron​	28,100,000​	141,450,727​	CM​
2016​	Paul Pogba​	89,000,000​	141,231,815​	CM​
2002​	Rio Ferdinand​	27,550,000​	128,409,369​	CB​
2014​	Ángel Di María​	59,700,000​	110,500,534​	Winger​
2017​	Romelu Lukaku​	75,000,000​	110,199,606​	ST​
2004​	Wayne Rooney​	27,000,000​	107,892,526​	ST​
2019​	Harry Maguire​	80,000,000​	100,776,960​	CB​
2001​	Ruud Van Nistelrooy​	19,000,000​	95,642,841​	ST​
2008​	Demitar Berbatov​	30,750,000​	90,318,704​	ST​
2022​	Antony​	86,000,000​	86,000,000​	Winger​

​

Great post!

A few observations:

1. We have a really poor record with expensive transfers. If Antony doesn't improve then it's 7 out of 10 players being failures, relatively speaking. 4 out of the top 5.

2. While this list doesn't provide enough data, it does suggest that Mourinho is the highest spending manager since Fergie retired. Which is what I suspected.

 

[bringbackbebe]

2. While this list doesn't provide enough data, it does suggest that Mourinho is the highest spending manager since Fergie retired. Which is what I suspected.

That's LVG!

Manager​	Average 2022 Eq. Fee £​
SAF​	131,915,418​
Moyes​	135,332,613​
LVG​	223,431,270​
Mourinho​	180,946,664​
Ole​	164,896,128​
ETH​	225,600,000​

 

[Scandi Red]

That's LVG!

Manager​	Average 2022 Eq. Fee £​
SAF​	131,915,418​
Moyes​	135,332,613​
LVG​	223,431,270​
Mourinho​	180,946,664​
Ole​	164,896,128​
ETH​	225,600,000​

Wow, I did definitely not expect that! Does this number also include sales? I would have thought that the sale of Di Maria would make his numbers much better.

 

[bringbackbebe]

Wow, I did definitely not expect that! Does this number also include sales? I would have thought that the sale of Di Maria would make his numbers much better.

Ah, just gross numbers! I'll see if I can incorporate sales figures in this.

 

[Real Name]

Great post!

A few observations:

1. We have a really poor record with expensive transfers. If Anthony doesn't improve then it's 7 out of 10 players being failures, relatively speaking. 4 out of the top 5.

2. While this list doesn't provide enough data, it does suggest that Mourinho is the highest spending manager since Fergie retired. Which is what I suspected.

Not to nitpick but isn't it 6 out of 10 or you count Berbatov as a failure?

 

[Lynty]

I'd have a heart attack if I heard we paid £90m for Berbatov in today's game.

 

[Scandi Red]

Not to nitpick but isn't it 6 out of 10 or you count Berbatov as a failure?

He was cool as cool can be, but for that price I'd consider him a failure yes.

 

[RedDevilLucio]

I would spend 95M on a 2001 RVN today, just what we need.

 

[Rood]

With so many historical comparisons made of late, I've been wondering how much we've spent historically, adjusted for revenue inflation? United revenues has increased from about 150m in 2001 to 600m now (could have been more had we been successful on the pitch now as we were then). There's also been little revenue inflation post covid, so I'm cutting these 3 years out. That leaves us with about 8% a year YoY growth in revenue. With increased revenue, there is more potential to spend. It's a simplistic assumption, but I'll take this figure as a rough estimate for adjusting transfer fees historically to 2022 values.

The reason for doing this is simple - have a look at top 10 transfer fee paid by us - almost all of them are in the recent 3-4 seasons.

Season Start​	Player​	Fee £​
2016​	Paul Pogba​	89,000,000​
2022​	Antony​	86,000,000​
2019​	Harry Maguire​	80,000,000​
2017​	Romelu Lukaku​	75,000,000​
2021​	Jadon Sancho​	73,000,000​
2022​	Casemiro​	70,000,000​
2014​	Ángel Di María​	59,700,000​
2022​	Lisandro Martínez​	56,700,000​
2019​	Aaron Wan-Bissaka​	50,000,000​
2018​	Fred​	47,000,000​

After adjusting for revenue inflation, the top 10 table looks more like this & for me this makes far more sense:

Season Start​	Player​	Fee £​	2022 Eq. Fee £​	Position​
2001​	Juan Veron​	28,100,000​	141,450,727​	CM​
2016​	Paul Pogba​	89,000,000​	141,231,815​	CM​
2002​	Rio Ferdinand​	27,550,000​	128,409,369​	CB​
2014​	Ángel Di María​	59,700,000​	110,500,534​	Winger​
2017​	Romelu Lukaku​	75,000,000​	110,199,606​	ST​
2004​	Wayne Rooney​	27,000,000​	107,892,526​	ST​
2019​	Harry Maguire​	80,000,000​	100,776,960​	CB​
2001​	Ruud Van Nistelrooy​	19,000,000​	95,642,841​	ST​
2008​	Demitar Berbatov​	30,750,000​	90,318,704​	ST​
2022​	Antony​	86,000,000​	86,000,000​	Winger​

That's a success rate of 3 (Rio, Rooney, RVN) and a flop rate of 5. Antony is still up for grabs & Berbatov was decent. Pogba fan boys, stay away - he's a flop. Big signings that blow the market are still a mixed bag.

In terms of seasons, we look like this:

Spending Rank​	Season Start​	Total Fee £​	Total 2022 Eq. Fee £​
1​	2001​	57,000,000​	286,928,522​
12​	2002​	29,050,000​	135,400,805​
5​	2003​	53,350,000​	230,242,651​
16​	2004​	27,200,000​	108,691,730​
19​	2005​	19,500,000​	72,150,351​
21​	2006​	18,600,000​	63,722,533​
8​	2007​	61,750,000​	195,881,444​
17​	2008​	35,750,000​	105,004,672​
22​	2009​	21,000,000​	57,112,098​
20​	2010​	27,200,000​	68,494,227​
14​	2011​	52,900,000​	123,343,703​
11​	2012​	63,000,000​	136,012,274​
13​	2013​	67,700,000​	135,332,613​
2​	2014​	145,500,000​	269,310,346​
9​	2015​	103,600,000​	177,552,194​
4​	2016​	149,000,000​	236,444,275​
7​	2017​	146,000,000​	214,521,899​
18​	2018​	67,530,000​	91,873,819​
3​	2019​	192,000,000​	241,864,704​
15​	2020​	98,700,000​	115,123,680​
10​	2021​	127,500,000​	137,700,000​
6​	2022​	225,600,000​	225,600,000​

1. There's no reason to raise eye brows if we spend another 200m this summer. That's about the 3rd quartile of what we've been doing historically.
2. We've spent about the same in the last 5 years as we did between 2001-2006. The difference was we had less competition from other clubs back then and we had a bigger leverage to make mistakes.
3. Our adjusted spending increased from 132m a year on an average between 2001 and 2010 to 174m a year between 2011-2020 with little to show for in results. Mismanagement, not surprising.
4. The period between 2004 and 2010 is perhaps the best in terms of our value for money purchases where we unearthed players like Vidic & Evra and got VDS in. Hopefully, we can get back here soon with the scouting rejig.
5. We've spent on an average the same pre and post Glazer takeover, based on the adjusted figures (~155m a season)

For those complaining about Osimhen costing 100m+, all our top strikers have cost that much. Fergie has always preferred to spend big here. This is not an area we should cheap out unless with backups.

Season Start​	Player​	Fee £​	2022 Eq. Fee £​	Position​
2017​	Romelu Lukaku​	75,000,000​	110,199,606​	ST​
2004​	Wayne Rooney​	27,000,000​	107,892,526​	ST​
2001​	Ruud Van Nistelrooy​	19,000,000​	95,642,841​	ST​
2008​	Demitar Berbatov​	30,750,000​	90,318,704​	ST​
2015​	Anthony Martial​	35,000,000​	59,983,849​	ST​
2003​	Louis Saha​	12,820,000​	55,327,288​	ST​
2012​	Robin Van Persie​	22,000,000​	47,496,350​	ST​
2015​	Memphis Depay​	25,000,000​	42,845,607​	ST​
2001​	Diego Forlan​	6,900,000​	34,733,453​	ST​
2003​	Alan Smith **​	7,000,000​	30,209,907​	ST​
2007​	Carlos Tevez (Loan)​	9,000,000​	28,549,522​	ST​
2010​	Javier Hernandez​	6,000,000​	15,109,021​	ST​

You put this together yourself? Impressive if so!

The hit rate on huge transfers is pretty low and history shows it's not worth the risk/reward gamble - not just for us either as if you look at the biggest transfers of all time, there are more failures than successes

I believe that Fergie realised this and that was a big part of his 'no value in the market' mantra later in his career

 

[Scandi Red]

I would spend 95M on a 2001 RVN today, just what we need.

Only a fool wouldn't. Completely worth the money. He was around the same level as Kane but 4 years younger.

 

[Revan]

I do not think the revenue inflation shows the entire picture, considering that 20 years ago you could have got away with squads of 17-18 players, while now you need two full squads. More highly paid players means that money gets more spread.

 

[Daydreamer]

That's a pointless statistic though, what are you trying to suggest it shows?

I think it's a very useful statistic. It shows how the club has decided to spend relative the money available to them at the time. If you wanted to learn more about United's resource allocation then this gives a clear and easily understandable snapshot.

It also points to periods of over/underinvestment as well as positions that the club has decided to prioritise. I wish someone had done this for Arsenal, I think it's fascinating.

 

[Fortitude]

I like the idea, but I don’t think things would pan out that way.

 

[Hammondo]

I think it's a very useful statistic. It shows how the club has decided to spend relative the money available to them at the time. If you wanted to learn more about United's resource allocation then this gives a clear and easily understandable snapshot.

It also points to periods of over/underinvestment as well as positions that the club has decided to prioritise. I wish someone had done this for Arsenal, I think it's fascinating.

Absolute nonsense.

It gives no picture of wages, other investments or payments, debt interest or repayments, no indication of profit before spending on players, has nothing to do with how payments for players are structured.

It tells you feck all.

 

[JB7]

Regarding Lukaku, purely playing Devils Advocate here because I wasn't a fan before we signed him, when he played for us or since he's left us.

But;

If you pay £75m for a player rising to a potential £90m with add on's, that player scores 42 goals & lays on 13 assists across two seasons (96 games), and then you sell that player for £74m, and you then pick up a further £4-5m when that player moves clubs again two years later. Were they that much of a flop?

 

[Lynty]

Regarding Lukaku, purely playing Devils Advocate here because I wasn't a fan before we signed him, when he played for us or since he's left us.

But;

If you pay £75m for a player rising to a potential £90m with add on's, that player scores 42 goals & lays on 13 assists across two seasons (96 games), and then you sell that player for £74m, and you then pick up a further £4-5m when that player moves clubs again two years later. Were they that much of a flop?

No. We can't really say Lukaku was poor value when you factor in his resale.

 

[Daydreamer]

Absolute nonsense.

It gives no picture of wages, other investments or payments, debt interest or repayments, no indication of profit before spending on players, has nothing to do with how payments for players are structured.

It tells you feck all.

Those other elements you mention would certainly add context. That's why I referred to it as a "snapshot" that "points to" areas that may be of interest.

Also, when doing statistical analysis it is often useful to focus on how a single variable (in this case transfer fees relative to revenue) change over an extended period of time. Introducing other datapoints could actually be counterproductive in certain circumstances.

It's somewhat like criticising a dribbling drill because it doesn't involve passing, shooting, crossing, decision making, communication etc. That wouldn't make sense as the focus on a singular technique is the whole point of the exercise.

 

[Physiocrat]

@bringbackbebe

Great OP.

 

[Hammondo]

Those other elements you mention would certainly add context. That's why I referred to it as a "snapshot" that "points to" areas that may be of interest.

Also, when doing statistical analysis it is often useful to focus on how a single variable (in this case transfer fees relative to revenue) change over an extended period of time. Introducing other datapoints could actually be counterproductive in certain circumstances.

It's somewhat like criticising a dribbling drill because it doesn't involve passing, shooting, crossing, decision making, communication etc. That wouldn't make sense as the focus on a singular technique is the whole point of the exercise.

Yes but transfer fees relative to revenue is a pointless analysis to make without context.

Your analogy does not fit at all, a more accurate one would be judging someone's passing ability based purely on the number of completed passes they make.

 

[Dr. Dwayne]

Would like to see the math.

 

[Daydreamer]

Yes but transfer fees relative to revenue is a pointless analysis to make without context.

Your analogy does not fit at all, a more accurate one would be judging someone's passing ability based purely on the number of completed passes they make.

In my analogy no one is not judging the player themselves. It's the hypothetical criticism of an activity due to it's singular focus. Sometime that's not a flaw, but a feature. Everyone knows that there is a lot more to spending than just the transfer fees. That doesn't mean drilling down into it across time doesn't provide some insights.

 

[bringbackbebe]

Wow, I did definitely not expect that! Does this number also include sales? I would have thought that the sale of Di Maria would make his numbers much better.

You are indeed right. Below are the figures for managers when incorporating Net figures but they are all very close & almost equally bad compared to Fergie:

Manager	2022 Eq. Net £
SAF	56,298,014
Moyes	133,333,608
LVG	120,555,541
Mourinho	144,104,986
Ole	115,476,480
ETH	205,100,000

It's quite astonishing how poor we've been in selling players post Fergie!

Top 10 player sales during this period:

Season Start​	Players Sold​	Fee £​	2022 Eq. Fee £​
2009​	Cristiano Ronaldo​	80,000,000​	217,569,898​
2003​	David Beckham​	25,000,000​	107,892,526​
2019​	Romelu Lukaku​	73,000,000​	91,958,976​
2001​	Jaap Stam​	16,500,000​	83,058,256​
2015​	Angel Di Maria​	44,300,000​	75,922,415​
2003​	Juan Veron​	15,000,000​	64,735,516​
2005​	John Mikel Obi​	12,000,000​	44,400,217​
2001​	Andy Cole​	7,500,000​	37,753,753​
2006​	Ruud van Nistelrooy​	10,300,000​	35,287,209​
2016​	Morgan Schneiderlin​	20,000,000​	31,737,486​

& seasonwise analysis:

Season Start	Paid 2022 Eq. Fee £	Recd 2022 Eq. Fee £	Net 2022 Eq. £
2001	286,928,522	139,437,194	147,491,328
2002	135,400,805	9,321,914	126,078,891
2003	230,242,651	172,628,042	57,614,609
2004	108,691,730	23,376,714	85,315,016
2005	72,150,351	68,450,334	3,700,017
2006	63,722,533	49,676,168	14,046,365
2007	195,881,444	111,660,353	84,221,091
2008	105,004,672	5,874,387	99,130,285
2009	57,112,098	232,527,829	-175,415,731
2010	68,494,227	34,373,022	34,121,205
2011	123,343,703	34,391,675	88,952,028
2012	136,012,274	25,691,207	110,321,067
2013	135,332,613	1,999,005	133,333,608
2014	269,310,346	76,443,418	192,866,928
2015	177,552,194	129,308,041	48,244,153
2016	236,444,275	68,235,596	168,208,679
2017	214,521,899	14,399,415	200,122,484
2018	91,873,819	27,890,024	63,983,795
2019	241,864,704	100,147,104	141,717,600
2020	115,123,680	21,111,840	94,011,840
2021	137,700,000	27,000,000	110,700,000
2022	225,600,000	20,500,000	205,100,000

You put this together yourself? Impressive if so!

Yes, gracious!

Would like to see the math.

Sure, I'll DM you the spreadsheets for both purchase & sale soon.

 

[Scandi Red]

You are indeed right. Below are the figures for managers when incorporating Net figures but they are all very close & almost equally bad compared to Fergie:

Manager	2022 Eq. Net £
SAF	56,298,014
Moyes	133,333,608
LVG	120,555,541
Mourinho	144,104,986
Ole	115,476,480
ETH	205,100,000

Thank you!

Now there's a new surprise for me. Solskjær is actually the most frugal manager after Fergie? I did not expect that after the glorious English smorgasbord of Maguire, AWB and Sancho which cost us over 200 million!