Recent content by Fener1907

It's not quite as simple as "metropolitan areas for the opposition, rural areas for the incumbent." The map on Wikipedia provides a better insight. Ankara and İstanbul, where almost 14 million votes came from, didn't exactly swing heavily in the opposition's favour. The reality is, the...

I doubt it. It was nice for a second, but I didn't get my hopes up as much this time. Just going to get on with life whilst people who don't know better learn their lesson the very, very hard way. Lira's going for a ride tomorrow.

Because "the third guy" isn't the voice of the nationalists. Ümit Özdağ - the chairman of the nationalist party that pulled in all the votes for the nationalist alliance - is, and he threw his support behind Kılıçdaroğlu. However, the foreign media only reported what "the third guy" said...

If Kılıçdaroğlu wins, Özdağ becomes interior minister. Oğan, on the other hand, secured absolutely nothing. That's exactly the momentum the opposition needed.

That's correct, yeah, which is why I think they have enough to at least just get over the line. However, it looks as if Oğan's decision is provoking a backlash from nationalists. Özdağ himself won't go on a tirade, but Zafer members are apoplectic and not holding back. Özdağ has far more...

The reality is, Oğan ran with the weight of Zafer Partisi behind him. Nobody was speaking about Oğan a few months ago just before he was announced as a candidate. All the work to garner attention and bring a more nationalist candidate to the election was done by Ümit Özdağ, the founder of...

There's nothing "alarming" about any of the rhetoric used by the nationalist coalition. If anything, calling them "ultra-nationalist" is misleading, because if someone is from Europe / America and never been to Turkey, they're going to see that and assume it means something quite specific. For...

It's not the official YSK data. They're majorly holding back CHP votes and waiting for people to just throw up their arms and give up.

This is all tactics. None of the data you are seeing is actually coming from YSK right now. Instead, you're just seeing tweets with dodgy AA bollocks. The entire point is to create the idea that we have a result. If we don't have the votes, how can you reach a conclusion? First they'd won...

For those who still don't know - "Anadolu Agency" (AA), which always has him ahead, doesn't gets its numbers directly from the YSK (Supreme Election Council). If you're posting those numbers, you're posting the most brazen propaganda.

The results look promising for Kılıçdaroğlu so far. If you're getting Anadolu Agency numbers, please understand you're essentially being told numbers by the ruling government, and then ask yourself how trustworthy those are. And to pick up on what @2cents has already covered, here's how they...

If no candidate gets 50%, it goes to a second round two weeks later anyway. If Kılıçdaroğlu gets over by even just a little bit, I don't see there being any recount. The illusion of omnipotence is very important to enforce such things, and himself failing to acquire the mandate automatically...

He'll never accept it, but having to go along with it could well be another matter, a bit like certain other former leaders in the last few years. People are pessimistic and doubt if it can happen, but they need to remember how Istanbul and Ankara both flipped in 2019, and anybody writing those...

The general feeling in Turkey is that Kılıçdaroğlu has it, and the poll from ORC is the one that many were waiting for, which doesn't suggest it's even close enough to spin an opposition narrative of "the polls were only slightly off, so of course we had it." "Hey, English speakers. Here's...

Ukraine (Greece) supported a military coup d'état of Crimea (Cyprus) - which didn't belong to them - causing Russia (Turkey) to invade to ensure that Russian (Turkish) enclaves weren't attacked any longer like they had been at the beginning of the coup? Top history lesson.