I think the Caf needs to develop a brand new sick/vomit emoji because this is something where the emoji could apply.
2024 U.S. Elections
- Thread starter Raoul
- Start date
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
Morning consult always shows a 4-5 point lead for Trump, nothing new.
The problem is that do electoral college biden would need to be 4% over trump. Less and trump is president. So trump going up on majority of polls doesnt look good. And it is only 8 months
As you said it's 8 months, plenty of time to flip the table.
I hope so because I personally hate to see Trump still ahead no matter when or where. People have really short collective memory.
I would rather that the table would be already flipped
Difficult one. If Biden lead, turnout at the election might be low, which would definitely favor Trump.
Many of the voters who aren't behind Biden but don't want another 4 years of Trump, might think the election is decided and therefore don't feel they need to vote.
Best is, if the polls remain tight so there will be a high voter turnout. The MAGA crowd is only 35% max of all voters bit they will vote whatever will happen. So the democrats need a very high voter turnout.
I'd like to point out that morning consult is ranked mid-tier, i don't have much faith in them being correct, highly rated pollsters have this race being closer.
Of course being behind in most polls don't look good though, agreed.
Polls are weird in general, nobody picks up random calls on a mobile phone anymore and 80% of the country bar the rural areas even have landlines so who are they consulting here? I've never been approached anywhere in Louisiana (I guess I'm in a red state but a blue zone in New Orleans mind you) about who I would vote for so I find polls skeptical, mid terms or special elections you usually see a true metric
Exactly. I'm getting ready to go early vote in 30 minutes when they open. I have 5 messages I didn't answer on pollsters and political campaigns right now. They have been leaving fliers and going door to door for months now. I have never actually answered one of these polls or political calls.
I know Trump will get a lot of votes. But, I also know he has done nothing to actually grow his base. If anything all the lies, indictments have made people even more sick of him. He can sell some of his cult some shoes, he can have them give him half a million on GoFundMe whining about being persecuted. It is part of the grift we all are familiar with by now.
I know Trump will get a lot of votes. But, I also know he has done nothing to actually grow his base. If anything all the lies, indictments have made people even more sick of him. He can sell some of his cult some shoes, he can have them give him half a million on GoFundMe whining about being persecuted. It is part of the grift we all are familiar with by now.
There is always the position to look at the bright side yes. And we can conjecture as much as we want. reality is that FOR NOW it doesn't look good
Last edited:
Exactly. That's the infuriating thing: the Dems got the numbers, if they just act like sane people they'll win easily. Remains to be seen though...
Can't find link right now, but quinnipiac has Biden up 4 points.
They have him up consistently, while Morning consult has him down consistently, interesting.
They have him up consistently, while Morning consult has him down consistently, interesting.
This is after the donation edict Trump laid down a couple of months ago...
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
Marquette is considered a quality pollster, right?
Quite.
I just hope the dems really goes out to vote for whoever is not trump. Is sad but Trump would be apocalyptic
Why the feck hasn't the dem establishment forced him to retire
Most of them are also pensioners.
I mean, some of the latest polls had Trump crushing Newsom(many people's favorite) even more than Biden.
I assume that at this point, anyone that cares so so about politics knows Trump or Biden. While Newsom...Who is that guy? But is all conjecture. Maybe Trump can't be beaten by any democrat, only Haley
If Newsom is a better candidate or not than Biden i'm not sure, probably better, but he has weaknesses as well.
Middle-America will likely perceive him to be an sleezy, coastal elite, and his debate skills might actually be off-putting to many, as anti-intellectualism is on the rise.
Yeah, currently politics is culture wars
Don't know much about Newsom but "too smart to be president" does seem like it could be a main(ish)stream view.
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
She also said every dime should be spent towards his reelection. Down ballot Republican's are fecked for funding.
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
Pollsters continues to be terrible at polling young people in general, this time on abortion.
Actual referendums proves that young people are most pro-choice, but polls says they are not? Okay then.
Yeah that seems like a very odd result considering the topic was arguably the biggest reason why the Dems have made some of the gains they did.
How are polls conducted these days? Is it still by phone? I ignore calls from numbers I don't recognise unless I'm expecting a call from someone. If its important, they'll leave a voicemail or send an email.
Maybe it's harder to get a decent sample for younger generations due to outdated methods.
Plenty of pro choice people would support a ban after 16 weeks.
This is just hilarious, we are to believe younger people are more in favour of banning abortion?
I think that there are certain degrees of pro choice. Some people that absolutely support pro-choice, they are not pro-choice at a certain period. Like 16 weeks in this poll. And I would say that a bigger portion would be for example at 7 months.
In this case, could be possible that those numbers could be close enough? genuine question
In this case, could be possible that those numbers could be close enough? genuine question
Indeed. Strange but not surprising that the opinions here are also very black or white without nuance.
To the other poster, Michelle Obama if she wanted to run would absolutely crush Trump
@WI_Red they are calling you