2024 U.S. Elections

ManUtd1999 · Feb 25, 2024

Based on the early returns, not too bad for Haley today. She may get to 40% or so, which would be respectable. Too early, though, and I wonder how the same-day vote would look like.

Lawrence O’Donnell just called the results of Trump so far as “disastrous” for the General Election. I tend to agree. Even 65-35 would suggest potential weakness in November.

Well tbf if the Trump voters stopped believing it was life or death we'd all be a lot better off. Hopefully they are fatigued too.

MAGA will vote by big numbers. The question is: will we vote?

RedDevilQuebecois · Feb 25, 2024

39.3% for Haley as of now. Trump may well score lower than expected, but that does not change much about the continuation in the primary season.

The thing that matters is that Biden/Harris find a way to galvanize voters to get on their side when it will matter. There is a need for positive consistency in the polls too.

WPMUFC · Feb 25, 2024

There's a lot of "hopium" going around that i'm not sure is warranted. It's her home state, she should poll well. What actually matters is how many of the 40% are Republicans open to voting Biden/staying home in the GE vs they just feel uncomfortable with Trump and currently have a choice.

If 37% of SC GOP are protest voting now, but will vote GOP no matter what in the general then it's all mute. Trump being "in trouble" requires a big percentage of the protest vote actually choosing Biden or staying home. Just a protest vote in a primaries is setting up folks for trouble.

Andersonson · Feb 25, 2024

He is going to win in November, aint he?

ManUtd1999 · Feb 25, 2024

WPMUFC said:
There's a lot of "hopium" going around that i'm not sure is warranted. It's her home state, she should poll well. What actually matters is how many of the 40% are Republicans open to voting Biden/staying home in the GE vs they just feel uncomfortable with Trump and currently have a choice.

If 37% of SC GOP are protest voting now, but will vote GOP no matter what in the general then it's all mute. Trump being "in trouble" requires a big percentage of the protest vote actually choosing Biden or staying home. Just a protest vote in a primaries is setting up folks for trouble.

Trump got 50-55% in Iowa and NH too. Today’s 40% for Haley are similar to what she got in NH. Trump is vulnerable.

RedDevilQuebecois said:
39.3% for Haley as of now. Trump may well score lower than expected, but that does not change much about the continuation in the primary season.

The thing that matters is that Biden/Harris find a way to galvanize voters to get on their side when it will matter. There is a need for positive consistency in the polls too.

The polls are not consistent with the support for Trump in the primary. He’s doing better in polls than in actual voting, including in the case of SC. He’s getting 5% more in polls, it seems, that what he actually wins in the end. But, we need a bigger sample to verify that.

WPMUFC · Feb 25, 2024

ManUtd1999 said:
Trump got 50-55% in Iowa and NH too. Today’s 40% for Haley are similar to what she got in NH. Trump is vulnerable.

Vulnerable if they decide to sit out the presidency vote or switch to Biden. Yes, completely agree.

Trump is the nominee, all Haley is proving is that a good chunk of the GOP don't like him personally.

But none of that matters on GE day if they all then turn up and go "well he is the GOP candidate, guess I have to vote for him".

We need data to show it's actually going to mess with him on GE day.

ManUtd1999 · Feb 25, 2024

WPMUFC said:
Vulnerable if they decide to sit out the presidency vote or switch to Biden. Yes, completely agree.

Trump is the nominee, all Haley is proving is that a good chunk of the GOP don't like him personally.

But none of that matters on GE day if they all then turn up and go "well he is the GOP candidate, guess I have to vote for him".

We need data to show it's actually going to mess with him on GE day.

Agreed.

The vast majority of Haley’s voters will vote for Trump in November. But, if a quarter of them doesn’t vote or vote for Biden that could big. She’s currently getting 40%. Again, we’ll know better after Super Tuesday, but there are signs of weakness.

SinNombre · Feb 25, 2024

There are no signs of weakness and this is just hopium/copium. All of them will vote for Trump come November. Democrats need to convince Michelle to stand by end of March if they want to win.

Mike Smalling · Feb 25, 2024

SinNombre said:
Democrats need to convince Michelle to stand by end of March if they want to win.

Stand by to do what? Campaign for Biden?

langster · Feb 25, 2024

SinNombre said:
There are no signs of weakness and this is just hopium/copium. All of them will vote for Trump come November. Democrats need to convince Michelle to stand by end of March if they want to win.

feck knows why people keep suggesting her when she has repeatedly said she has absolutely zero interest in a political career let alone being President. It's not happening.

B. Munich · Feb 25, 2024

MarylandMUFan said:
Sorry this isn't entertaining for you. It's only the future of our democracy at stake.

If that's true how can there be so many imbeciles who vote for Trump?
Trump 2016 was bad, Trump 2024 is beyond bad.
Only people who want the US crashing will vote for this idiot

Bert_ · Feb 25, 2024

langster said:
feck knows why people keep suggesting her when she has repeatedly said she has absolutely zero interest in a political career let alone being President. It's not happening.

It's so fecking depressing when this sort of shit is the best anyone can come up with as an alternative. Trump should be the easiest person to beat in any election with half decent candidate. He's faced Hillary Clinton who seems to be universally disliked by everyone and he won as a result (helped by the daft electoral college system). Then Biden round 1 where Biden was less despised as Hillary for whatever reason plus sensible people had seen enough of the Trump cricus. Biden round 2 is so precarious though. People turned out to remove Trump. Will they turn out to keep Biden?

TwoSheds · Feb 25, 2024

SinNombre said:
There are no signs of weakness and this is just hopium/copium. All of them will vote for Trump come November. Democrats need to convince Michelle to stand by end of March if they want to win.

Where did all these people banging on about hopium come from? Presumably you all read Twitter too much but stop it, they're not words, they're not cool, and they don't make you sound interesting.

langster · Feb 25, 2024

B. Munich said:
If that's true how can there be so many imbeciles who vote for Trump?
Trump 2016 was bad, Trump 2024 is beyond bad.
Only people who want the US crashing will vote for this idiot

That is the kind of thinking and attitude that got Trump elected in the first place.

If you honestly believe the last sentence you wrote, then you really don't understand the USA at all.

Mike Smalling · Feb 25, 2024

Pointing out people’s ‘hopium’ and then immediately suggesting Democrats might ask Michelle Obama to run is a whole new level of dumb.

calodo2003 · Feb 25, 2024

SinNombre said:
There are no signs of weakness and this is just hopium/copium. All of them will vote for Trump come November. Democrats need to convince Michelle to stand by end of March if they want to win.

Can we please stop with the inane Michelle Obama posts for christ's sake?

No weakness signs? How so exactly?

calodo2003 · Feb 25, 2024

Bert_ said:
It's so fecking depressing when this sort of shit is the best anyone can come up with as an alternative. Trump should be the easiest person to beat in any election with half decent candidate. He's faced Hillary Clinton who seems to be universally disliked by everyone and he won as a result (helped by the daft electoral college system). Then Biden round 1 where Biden was less despised as Hillary for whatever reason plus sensible people had seen enough of the Trump cricus. Biden round 2 is so precarious though. People turned out to remove Trump. Will they turn out to keep Biden?

Yes.

Bert_ · Feb 25, 2024

calodo2003 said:
Yes.

I'm not American but I'm terrified Trump might win. Not through popularity, through simple apathy.

When Biden ran in 2020, I thought it would be a one term, get Trump out/return to normality (american normality) whilst the Dems showcased their next nominee to run this year. It's beggars belief they've not managed to find anyone suitable and have to relay on obviously declining octogenarian to lead the line. It could backfire massively.

Mike Smalling · Feb 25, 2024

Bert_ said:
When Biden ran in 2020, I thought it would be a one term, get Trump out/return to normality (american normality) whilst the Dems showcased their next nominee to run this year. It's beggars belief they've not managed to find anyone suitable and have to relay on obviously declining octogenarian to lead the line. It could backfire massively.

It’s not that they couldn’t have found someone though. They just refused to. Biden could have announced he wouldn’t be running again in a timely manner to allow for another candidate to build a national profile in time. There are good options among the Democrat state governors - particularly Newsom, Whitmer and Shapiro.

It’s pure hubris from Biden. His mentality is that he worked his entire life to become President, so he won’t give it up willingly. Part of him probably also believes that he alone can beat Trump, even if that’s insane.

Meanwhile the entire Democratic apparatus has toed the line, with the exception of an impotent whimper of a challenge from Dean Phillips. This probably comes from a place of not signaling internal turmoil which could make Biden look weaker, which I can sort of understand.

SinNombre · Feb 25, 2024

calodo2003 said:
Can we please stop with the inane Michelle Obama posts for christ's sake?

No weakness signs? How so exactly?

Biden needs to win popular vote by +3 against Teflon Don to win electoral college.

RCP average has him down by -1.9 in popular vote and down -4.6 in MI and -6.8 in GA.

RCP averages have generally been biased towards the Democrats recently
RCP final averages vs. actual results --
2020 final average: Biden +7.2 2020 actual result: Biden +4.5
2016 final average: Clinton +3.2 2016 actual result: Clinton +2.1

Can we please stop with this digging your head in the sand and echo-chamber nonsense that this thread has descended into?

calodo2003 · Feb 25, 2024

SinNombre said:
Biden needs to win popular vote by +3 against Teflon Don to win electoral college.

RCP average has him down by -1.9 in popular vote and down -4.6 in MI and -6.8 in GA.

RCP averages have generally been biased towards the Democrats recently
RCP final averages vs. actual results --
2020 final average: Biden +7.2 2020 actual result: Biden +4.5
2016 final average: Clinton +3.2 2016 actual result: Clinton +2.1

Can we please stop with this digging your head in the sand and echo-chamber nonsense that this thread has descended into?

Jesus fecking christ, we are a lifetime away from polls actually mattering. Your 'sky is falling' repetitive mantra is simply unfounded at this point in time. But, by all means, keep trumpeting them & the Michelle nonsense if that's what truly floats your boat.

Morty_ · Feb 25, 2024

SinNombre said:
Biden needs to win popular vote by +3 against Teflon Don to win electoral college.

RCP average has him down by -1.9 in popular vote and down -4.6 in MI and -6.8 in GA.

RCP averages have generally been biased towards the Democrats recently
RCP final averages vs. actual results --
2020 final average: Biden +7.2 2020 actual result: Biden +4.5
2016 final average: Clinton +3.2 2016 actual result: Clinton +2.1

Can we please stop with this digging your head in the sand and echo-chamber nonsense that this thread has descended into?

That was before Dobbs, Polls now overestimate republicans, Trump is also underperforning the polls in the primaries.

Its not "digging head in sand" to point this out.

Yes, Biden needs better numbers than currently, of course, hopefully there is a shift in the summer.

MarylandMUFan · Feb 25, 2024

B. Munich said:
If that's true how can there be so many imbeciles who vote for Trump?
Trump 2016 was bad, Trump 2024 is beyond bad.
Only people who want the US crashing will vote for this idiot

I live in an area with a lot of Trumpers and it all comes down to where they get their "news" from. If Fox News never existed, we would have never seen someone like Trump in office. Most of the Trumpers around me are good people that work hard but have been brainwashed to think illegal immigrants are coming to take everything they own. It's horrible.

ManUtd1999 · Feb 25, 2024

MarylandMUFan said:
I live in an area with a lot of Trumpers and it all comes down to where they get their "news" from. If Fox News never existed, we would have never seen someone like Trump in office. Most of the Trumpers around me are good people that work hard but have been brainwashed to think illegal immigrants are coming to take everything they own. It's horrible.

Those people aren’t reachable. However, some of Haley’s voters could be. That should be the goal of the Biden’s campaign, and I believe that it is.

Red in STL · Feb 25, 2024

ManUtd1999 said:
Those people aren’t reachable. However, some of Haley’s voters could be. That should be the goal of the Biden’s campaign, and I believe that it is.

Some of Haley's voters are probably in reach but they aren't in areas that will matter for the most part

Biden could pick up 25% of her voters in South Carolina but he'd still not win the state

Morty_ · Feb 25, 2024

Red in STL said:
Some of Haley's voters are probably in reach but they aren't in areas that will matter for the most part

Biden could pick up 25% of her voters in South Carolina but he'd still not win the state

South Carolina doesn't matter, but,
could well be that you have a similar large group of anti-Trump people in say, Michigan or Wisconsin, or the other Carolina, North Carolina.

ManUtd1999 · Feb 25, 2024

Morty_ said:
South Carolina doesn't matter, but,
could well be that you have a similar large group of anti-Trump people in say, Michigan or Wisconsin, or the other Carolina, North Carolina.

Yes, that’s a possibility, and definitely my hope.

Putting aside my thoughts of Trump and Biden: honestly, I was expecting Trump to win with 75% or more. When CNN called the race yesterday with poll closing, I was expecting a 3-1 or 4-1 margin. It ended up 1.5-1. In NH it was even less.

Raoul · Feb 25, 2024

ManUtd1999 said:
Yes, that’s a possibility, and definitely my hope.

Putting aside my thoughts of Trump and Biden: honestly, I was expecting Trump to win with 75% or more. When CNN called the race yesterday with poll closing, I was expecting a 3-1 or 4-1 margin. It ended up 1.5-1. In NH it was even less.

It was 2 to 1 because its her home state. Any other conservative state and it would be closer to 4-1.

At this point, she's only in the race to illuminate the fact that the GOP aren't 100% MAGA, and there is still a smaller market for traditional Republicans, which can be developed after Trump leaves the scene.

Carolina Red · Feb 25, 2024

MarylandMUFan said:
Most of the Trumpers around me are good people that work hard but have been brainwashed to think illegal immigrants are coming to take everything they own. It's horrible.

Yep. It’s very very disappointing

ManUtd1999 · Feb 25, 2024

Raoul said:
It was 2 to 1 because its her home state. Any other conservative state and it would be closer to 4-1.

At this point, she's only in the race to illuminate the fact that the GOP aren't 100% MAGA, and there is still a smaller market for traditional Republicans, which can be developed after Trump leaves the scene.

What about NH, then? She got a higher share of the vote (43%). Back then people said that NH is an unusual state, now it’s because SC is Haley’s home state. Each time there’s a reason. Maybe, just maybe, Trump is not doing as well as we thought?

Raoul · Feb 25, 2024

ManUtd1999 said:
What about NH, then? She got a higher share of the vote (43%). Back then people said that NH is an unusual state, now it’s because SC is Haley’s home state. Each time there’s a reason. Maybe, just maybe, Trump is not doing as well as we thought?

Its a unique state with a disproportionately higher amount of non-MAGA Republicans. They are far more traditional in the New England area.

ManUtd1999 · Feb 25, 2024

Raoul said:
Its a unique state with a disproportionately higher amount of non-MAGA Republicans. They are far more traditional in the New England area.

I know, but that’s my point: there is always a reason when Trump is involved.

Any way, we will see how it goes. He will be the nominee, we already know that, and we will see the margins.

VorZakone · Feb 25, 2024

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Raoul · Feb 25, 2024

VorZakone said:
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This guy is known for making audacious anti-Trump comments.

ManUtd1999 · Feb 25, 2024

Raoul said:
This guy is known for making audacious anti-Trump comments.

Yes, but he also tends to be right on the numbers. He was right in 2022.

According to the average polling of 538 in Michigan, Haley will get like 18% vs 80% for Trump. Let’s see how much they will receive on Tuesday.

Raoul · Feb 25, 2024

ManUtd1999 said:
Yes, but he also tends to be right on the numbers. He was right in 2022.

According to the average polling in Michigan, Haley will get like 18% vs 80% for Trump. Let’s see how much they receive on Tuesday.

But he's generally more on the DNC based, best case scenario propaganda side of things who makes a living off of telling Dems things they desperately would like to hear. The truth is, no one knows how the election will unfold and Trump could actually get elected.

ManUtd1999 · Feb 25, 2024

Raoul said:
But he's generally more on the DNC based, best case scenario propaganda side of things who makes a living off of telling Dems things they desperately would like to hear. The truth is, no one knows how the election will unfold and Trump could actually get elected.

Correct.

But what you said here doesn’t contradict the fact that he was right about “no red wave” in 2022 and that Trump has so far underperformed the polling and showed weakness.

I’m not saying that Haley will be the nominee. Trump will be. Trump can also win in November… that’s 100% possible. But the flip side is to recognize that polling has shown recently a better picture for Trump and the GOP than the reality. This could happen this year too, not to mention that we’re 8 months away of the election.

Trump CAN win. Trump can also lose.

Morty_ · Feb 25, 2024

It's hard to care too much about primaries in Iowa and SC, Michigan coming up though, you can't draw too many conclusions from primary results, but that one will at least be interesting.

VorZakone · Feb 25, 2024

Pro-Israel Group Aims to Help Biden in Michigan Amid Gaza Unrest

The political arm of Democratic Majority for Israel is running a digital ad that does not mention the Gaza conflict but warns that voting “uncommitted” in the state’s primary will help Donald Trump.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/23/us/politics/israel-biden-michigan-gaza.html

Cal? · Feb 25, 2024

So many people are getting upset with Trump leading the national polls, but ignore the exit polls from the primaries that have taken place with 25%+ Haley voters saying they'd not vote for Trump or even vote for Biden.

I'm not saying those number will hold, but if it does, it'll be an electoral landslide for the Dems. As things stand, I would still prefer to be in Biden's position than Trump's.

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2024 U.S. Elections

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