Ole and xG

Discussion in 'Manchester United Forum' started by Pogue Mahone, Mar 7, 2019.

  1. Aug 31, 2019

    Ace of Spades Full Member

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2013
    Messages:
    3,151
    No, we were well on top against Wolves. It took a great strike to concede the goal.

    Against Southampton, we did not have the same dominant display. Still, overall they did not pose too much threat. Again, a goal conceded from losing a header that should have been won by Lindelof.
  2. Aug 31, 2019

    Crashoutcassius Full Member

    Joined:
    Oct 10, 2013
    Messages:
    6,478
    Location:
    playa del carmen
    Tbf people were happy to point to xg when we were outperforming. Shows that in general we are winning battles but lack quality or mentality in important moments - finishing, defending, goalkeeping. In general I think if a team concedes close to 100% of the shots of target they give up the fans will be disappointed with results.

    There is a lot of whataboutism going on comparing us to Liverpool and city last year but have to remember they are the two greatest sides to ever play in the league
  3. Aug 31, 2019

    Ace of Spades Full Member

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2013
    Messages:
    3,151
    True, stupid mistakes at the back have cost us goals. On the other hand, there is no doubt that we need more quality in midfield and attack. I would still look to improve on Lindelof as well.
  4. Aug 31, 2019

    Big Ben Foster Correctly predicted Portugal to win Euro 2016

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2008
    Messages:
    6,205
    Location:
    Brasileiro in Chicago
    Supports:
    Also support Vasco da Gama
    I'll say the same thing I said last season when we were winning games - I wouldn't complain if I never had to hear anything about this xG nonsense again.
  5. Aug 31, 2019

    Kounan Full Member

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2012
    Messages:
    1,380
    Location:
    Sarajevo, BiH
    Oh yeah, we need a lot more quality, but for now we are not loosing points because we are outplayed. I remember that one seasone we didn't concede in 14 games in a row, but in 8 of these games we won 1:0 and had two 0:0 draws. So yeah, if you don't make stupid mistakes, you can win without your attackers having a great game.
  6. Aug 31, 2019

    golden_blunder Site admin. Manchester United fan Staff

    Joined:
    Jun 1, 2000
    Messages:
    92,442
    Location:
    Dublin, Ireland
    Same
  7. Aug 31, 2019

    GloryHunter07 Full Member

    Joined:
    Oct 11, 2007
    Messages:
    11,518
    I dont think its nonsense.
  8. Sep 1, 2019

    bosnian_red Worst scout to ever exist

    Joined:
    Aug 13, 2011
    Messages:
    36,296
    Location:
    Canada
    Its not nonsense but you have to look at it in the context of everything too, instead of the be all and end all. The logic of it is that for the most part, as a manager you make your system to create a lot of high quality chances and limit the chances the opposition creates. There are different systems for how to achieve this, but ultimately this is everyones plan.

    All xG does is sum up how good each chance was over a game to give you how much you'd be expected to score with "average finishing". Average finishing as in data taken from similar situations across years of action and how often that chance would result in a goal basically. In general, year on year we've seen that teams tend to play pretty close to this stat and statistically it's a better marker for future league position than goals/goals conceded/shots on target/shots/possession are. Some bad luck now will hopefully turn around later in the season where we get some luck results to average it out, or we put in the same performances chance wise but go on a winning run and it looks rosier. A lot of times it all comes down to just clinical finishing, which we havent been while the opposition has been against us 3 games in a row. XG basically says that everyone tends to play to their expected goals over a large enough period of time. Incredibly small sample size for this season, but this is just quantifying reasons to keep some optimism despite the end results not panning out for a few games and expecting it to turn around if we play the same pretty much.
  9. Sep 1, 2019

    tenpoless Full Member

    Joined:
    Oct 20, 2014
    Messages:
    2,757
    Location:
    *Teleports behind you*
    I've always wanted to say this. Dear lord forgive me for this.

    xG my arse, xG my arse, xG my arse, xG my arse.
  10. Sep 1, 2019

    billybee99 New Member

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2015
    Messages:
    282
    It's horseshit.
  11. Sep 1, 2019

    Crashoutcassius Full Member

    Joined:
    Oct 10, 2013
    Messages:
    6,478
    Location:
    playa del carmen
    It wasn't nonsense last year when it supported the narrative.
  12. Sep 1, 2019

    bosnian_red Worst scout to ever exist

    Joined:
    Aug 13, 2011
    Messages:
    36,296
    Location:
    Canada
    No, it's a stat. Can a stat be horse shit?
  13. Sep 1, 2019

    bosnian_red Worst scout to ever exist

    Joined:
    Aug 13, 2011
    Messages:
    36,296
    Location:
    Canada
    People love to complain and then when something is telling them that there might be reasons for optimism anyway, then they tell you to feck off and let them complain and you're deluded for thinking otherwise.
  14. Sep 1, 2019

    JustAGuest New Member

    Joined:
    Jun 19, 2013
    Messages:
    252
  15. Sep 1, 2019

    Sunny Jim Full Member

    Joined:
    May 8, 2007
    Messages:
    26,718
    Location:
    Warsaw...that's too far away from Edinburgh...
    Its not. Its a very good reflection of teams' perfomances over long periods.
  16. Sep 1, 2019

    Aouer-United New Member

    Joined:
    Aug 31, 2019
    Messages:
    20
    Well, in the Pep's first season, in exected points, they should have won the league by 10 points or so ahead of Spurs and Chelsea but they didn't, they went to spend 250m on fullbacks, CB, GK and Silva then they suddenly walked the league whilst playing one of best football in Europe.

    We know we have a lot of things to do and that will require massive investment for us to improve midfield and attack.
  17. Sep 1, 2019

    Bestietom Full Member

    Joined:
    Dec 16, 2013
    Messages:
    4,159
    Location:
    Ireland
    Even if not won, he should have put him off by going in harder.
  18. Sep 1, 2019

    0le Full Member

    Joined:
    Dec 25, 2017
    Messages:
    1,588
    Statistics themselves are not horseshit, rather it is their misrepresentation which is "horseshit". If you know what you are doing however, they are invaluable and necessary. When you get fans that say "statistics don't mean anything", this is actually what they mean to say. In the case of xG, I guess it takes a lot more understanding to use them properly and perhaps the majority of fans, including myself, don't really care as much about going to that detail compared to other statistics like goals scored, assists etc.
  19. Sep 1, 2019

    reddev3 New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2018
    Messages:
    113
    No stat in football is going to tell you the picture put XG is probably the best for an idea of a teams performance when taking into consideration variance.
  20. Sep 1, 2019

    Denis79 Full Member

    Joined:
    Nov 2, 2014
    Messages:
    3,373
    I don't quite understand how this xG works? Someone looks at the chances and does an assessment what should have happened?

    Because I feel we were more unlucky than lucky last season, although the xG says otherwise.
    Last edited: Sep 1, 2019
  21. Sep 1, 2019

    Blueman New Member

    Joined:
    Dec 12, 2017
    Messages:
    56
    Supports:
    Man City
    Yup that's pretty much true. So frustrating that first season. I think it was a "playing the right way" thing but not got confidence to stop those goals or to score them,.
  22. Sep 1, 2019

    Crashoutcassius Full Member

    Joined:
    Oct 10, 2013
    Messages:
    6,478
    Location:
    playa del carmen
    its explained in the article above nicely. it takes the position and the type of each chances and compares it to 1000s of chances of that type and position and before and gives a probability of goal.

    Last year we ran way over xg under ole. this year we are running way under. the role of it is to show where the luck will even out over time. By the xg metric we have improved a lot this season over last, just less clinical and seem to concede almost every chance to give away. On the flip side of the corner liverpool are way over xg as we were last season and the season that we finished 2nd under mourinho
  23. Sep 1, 2019

    Denis79 Full Member

    Joined:
    Nov 2, 2014
    Messages:
    3,373
    Ok, now I understand how it works. Thank you.
  24. Sep 1, 2019

    R'hllor Full Member

    Joined:
    Jun 6, 2013
    Messages:
    11,475
    How can anyone say its horseshit after our downfall in last part of the season, you could see it will happen miles away.
  25. Sep 1, 2019

    Classical Mechanic Full Member

    Joined:
    Aug 25, 2014
    Messages:
    24,598
    xG & xGA actually says that we should be second so far this season, only behind City. It hints that the system is working but the players are failing in important moments. Its a bit of a reverse of @Pogue Mahone tweet in that we're now conceding more than we should.

    https://understat.com/league/EPL
  26. Sep 1, 2019

    Amarsdd Full Member

    Joined:
    Jun 7, 2013
    Messages:
    230
    This. Exactly.
  27. Sep 1, 2019

    R'hllor Full Member

    Joined:
    Jun 6, 2013
    Messages:
    11,475
    I wouldnt call it oracle but horseshit aint.
  28. Sep 1, 2019

    Classical Mechanic Full Member

    Joined:
    Aug 25, 2014
    Messages:
    24,598
    It's early days of course, we have played Wolves and Palace that have low xG anyway because they surrender possession.

    I think it gives a general impression of the overall balance of play in a game. It also hints at which parts of your team are under-performing or over-performing.
  29. Sep 1, 2019

    Rood nostradamus like gloater Scout

    Joined:
    Jun 21, 2008
    Messages:
    17,368
    Location:
    @United_Hour
  30. Sep 1, 2019

    El Zoido Full Member

    Joined:
    Jun 7, 2013
    Messages:
    6,726
    Location:
    UK
    It’s not horseshit, people just say it is because it supports their pathetic agenda.
  31. Sep 1, 2019

    Big Ben Foster Correctly predicted Portugal to win Euro 2016

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2008
    Messages:
    6,205
    Location:
    Brasileiro in Chicago
    Supports:
    Also support Vasco da Gama
    I think you'll come to find those of us calling it nonsense now were also calling it nonsense last year.
  32. Sep 1, 2019

    Pogue Mahone Poster of the year 2008

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2006
    Messages:
    99,953
    Location:
    "like a man in silk pyjamas shooting pigeons
    Huh. That’s interesting. Quite a turnaround! Although I guess repeatedly dropping points by single goals and missing penalties in two out of the four games we played could account for the big disconnect between that table and the real one.
  33. Sep 1, 2019

    Di Maria's angel Captain of Moanchester United

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2014
    Messages:
    12,089
    Location:
    London
    It means jack shit.
  34. Sep 1, 2019

    Crashoutcassius Full Member

    Joined:
    Oct 10, 2013
    Messages:
    6,478
    Location:
    playa del carmen
    i guess the point is it was quite a busy thread/topic last year when it said a bad thing... now less busy, mostly ignored thread/topic
  35. Sep 1, 2019

    Treble Full Member

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2008
    Messages:
    10,368
    4 games is a very small sample. We will have a better idea after 14 games. If we still are doing well in the xG table, then maybe Ole is on the right track indeed.
  36. Sep 1, 2019

    LJJT Full Member

    Joined:
    Apr 20, 2010
    Messages:
    590
    Location:
    North West
    What’s xG? What relevance is it to real life?
  37. Sep 1, 2019

    Revan Assumptionman

    Joined:
    Dec 19, 2011
    Messages:
    38,249
    Location:
    Munich
    We were extremely lucky in that series of 10+ games we won. Everything was screaming that it was a purple patch and the xG was supporting that. I said back then, that soon we will get back to reality, which then happened.

    It is the opposite this time around. We are outperforming xG and soon the results will follow. The regress to the mean is inevitable, though to be fair you don't need xG to realise that. We have played far better than to get 5 points out of 12.

    About xG itself it has been explained many times. It is simply a start which is assigned based on the results of shots from the same positions. Most xG stats are based on 100k+ shots, where each position a shot has been taken is given a probability of being a goal based on similar shots. Far from perfect and very primitive compared to learning techniques which are in other fields, but it is still by far the best predictor in football.
  38. Sep 1, 2019

    El Zoido Full Member

    Joined:
    Jun 7, 2013
    Messages:
    6,726
    Location:
    UK
    We’re playing better now than we were when we were on the unbeaten run when he first joined.
  39. Sep 1, 2019

    Revan Assumptionman

    Joined:
    Dec 19, 2011
    Messages:
    38,249
    Location:
    Munich
    And you were as wrong back then as you are now
  40. Sep 1, 2019

    Treble Full Member

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2008
    Messages:
    10,368
    I'm not sure about that. We were poor in the first 60 minutes against Chelsea and we allowed teams who needed a goal to dominate us. In the minutes before their goals Wolves and Soton dominated, they didn't score against the run of play. Too early to tell now, xG will reveal more on the basis of at least 15 games.