- May 26, 2010
Nobody said we would win the league, I was being told we should have finished 5th last year based on this and how Spurs and Chelsea are miles better than us in every metric based on his stats this season. We are now ahead of Chelsea and 3 points behind Spurs by the way.Of course they are not, it is an idealized model in the end, not real world. It is far better than the traditional stats (number of shots, possession etc) and in the long term a very good model should outperform experts. I would be totally surprised if within 10-15 years a large part of scouts won't be data scientists.
We aren't finishing second too be fair this season, and based in xG over the course of the entire season, we aren't finishing in UCL zone (though now it has become marginal instead of almost no chance of doing it) Since Ole came, I believe that based on xG we finish in top 4, though hile if you interpolate the points over the entire season we break City's record of last year, if you interpolate xG, we don't win the league.
I believe that anyone with a functional pair of eyes would agree that we won't win the league if we play like this. We will do better, maybe compete to the end, but right now it is not a title winning team (unless City has a crash) and the team needs some extra quality. xG just reinforces that opinion.
Then I was told it could take multiple seasons for xG to even out when we finished a comfortable second..
It just screams being too clever. A Jose side would be ahead of xG due to how efficient his sides are but a team that takes more risks would see a smaller number. That doesn't mean we should rehire Jose.