Russian invasion of Ukraine

GlastonSpur

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The BBC reports:

"Russia's President Putin and his military chief, General Valery Gerasimov, are believed to be directly intervening in Russia’s military offensive in Ukraine and taking decisions normally made by more junior officers - according to a Western military source.

Speaking on the condition of anonymity, the source said: “We think Putin and Gerasimov are involved in tactical decision-making at a level we would normally expect to be taken by a colonel or brigadier.”

The military source said the two were the ones making decisions about troop movements in the Donbas – the area of eastern Ukraine which is now the focus of Russia’s military offensive.

There have already been suggestions that President Putin has become more involved in the day-to-day running of the military campaign, ever since Russia suffered setbacks in the north of the country and around the capital Kyiv.

There’s also been recent speculation that Russia’s military chief, General Gerasimov, may have been sidelined – along with unsubstantiated rumours that he was injured while visiting the Donbas a few weeks ago.

But the Western military official made clear that Russia’s chief of the general staff was still giving orders. “Gerasimov is up and running,” he said."
 

MoskvaRed

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Gave one in the other thread, I have no idea. Beyond reparations, neutrality, security agreements, and the usual stuff, which is already being discussed and suggested, there's nothing I can add. Russia will have to withdraw back to its initial position and Ukraine will likely have to acknowledge the independence of, or loss of, Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk. Not the entirety of the last two, but those parts which were under control before the war.
Not an unreasonable answer. Given the current momentum, I‘d see a return to 2014 borders, except for Crimea.
 

Mciahel Goodman

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Not an unreasonable answer. Given the current momentum, I‘d see a return to 2014 borders, except for Crimea.
Yeah, but also true that state of war will dictate what happens. What @RedDevilQuebecois said basically. Maybe Ukraine takes those areas back? Impossible to call as long as the war still goes on.
 

Simbo

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Russia will start begging for a ceasefire before Crimea is at risk and their western agents will push to see it happen. If/when Ukraine gets to that point though, it will be because the Russian military has pretty much collapsed, at which time I doubt Ukraine will stop short of reclaiming all its territory. Blow the bridge and move up some Neptun's...

That's one scenario at least.
 

Rajma

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Just had a look at Katchanovski’s publications and I would be very interested to see the money trail. He has a seemingly very strong interest in challenging the prevailing narrative about Ukraine going back to Maidan in 2014. All from the other side of the Atlantic in Ottawa.
Pretty clear IMO. I just had a look at this guy’s Twitter feed:He’s very transparent. Shares the statement from UK gov. and on purpose fails to finish the sentence, which goes as follows:
He urged against any negotiations with Russia on terms that gave credence to the Kremlin’s false narrative for the invasion, but stressed that this was a decision for the Ukrainian government.
He’s pushing Russian agenda full stop if you read his Twitter.
 

VorZakone

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I share the same question of this Reddit comment. Over and over and over again we see isolated small groups of Russian units just getting picked off. It is hard to fathom how incompetent it all looks.

The biggest question I have is why is their armor constantly seen in many videos without any infantry support being picked off by anti armor.
 

MTF

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I share the same question of this Reddit comment. Over and over and over again we see isolated small groups of Russian units just getting picked off. It is hard to fathom how incompetent it all looks.
The leading theory is that they don't have enough infantry. Their units are too heavy on tanks and IFVs relative to infantry, so their combined arms efforts are not combined.

38 min podcast that includes a discussion on the matter, I think towards the tail-end: https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/ukraines-military-advantage-and-russias-stark-choices/
 

Mciahel Goodman

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Most of the conspiracy theorist, or fringe groups, you'd classify under that rubric (as useful idiots) don't make it their business to trawl through war footage to verify war crimes committed against Ukrainians by Russians. Seems to be held in relatively high regard.
 

TMDaines

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Seems a bit weird to me. If France had attacked us and taken over Manchester and Birmingham, would we be sending someone to Eurovision?
Sure, if we could. The value of having the likes lf Usyk and Kalush Orchesta being bodies at home is nothing compared to the their value raising awareness abroad and morale boosting. One thing the Ukrainian government has done well on is providing a sunny horizon to the future of the country. Eurovision has been a massive boost to many Ukrainians, as they took pride in winning a contest, whilst also recognising that their win was in large part an outpouring of support from European people.

What could Kalush Orchestra possibly do as regular citizens in Ukraine right now to beat that? It will be the same with the Ukrainian national team in the World Cup qualifiers shortly.
 

UnofficialDevil

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Sure, if we could. The value of having Usyk and Kalush Orchesta being bodies at home is nothing compared to the their value raising awareness abroad and morale boosting. One thing the Ukrainian government has done well on is providing a sunny horizon to the future of the country.
I dont know. If we were at war with another county that had invaded and taken over Birmingham and Bristol, the last thing we would be doing is taking part in a song contest. At least that's how I feel.
 

TMDaines

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I dont know. If we were at war with another county that invaded and taken over Birmingham and Bristol, the last thing we would be doing is taking part in a song contest. At least that's how I feel.
The world didn’t stop during WWII in the UK, in fact it largely carried on.
 

Sir Matt

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Can’t we just throw out Turkey and let in Sweden and Finland then? Seems like a good trade, and if I remember correctly NATO does have humans rights and democracy requirements, which Turkey could be violating.
The rest of NATO should take Gulen back and help him attempt an actual coup, instead of the trumped up one Erdogan claims Gulen tried in 2016. Getting rid of Erdogan is preferable to getting rid of Turkey. Similar principle applies to Orban and Hungary.
 

Rajma

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Most of the conspiracy theorist, or fringe groups, you'd classify under that rubric (as useful idiots) don't make it their business to trawl through war footage to verify war crimes committed against Ukrainians by Russians. Seems to be held in relatively high regard.
You’re very naive if you think Russian money do not penetrate individuals in research or human right organizations of all sorts, to be effective in what they do they have to target those with a dash of credibility about them. Just read what this tool says and it should be enough for you to see him through.
 

TMDaines

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We weren't invaded in World War 2 though, were we. We were invading.
Ukraine was invaded in 2014 and has been occupied ever since. Russia currently holds only a small part of Ukraine more than it has since then. What are you expecting? Ukrainians to cry and feel sorry for themselves forever? Sorry, they aren’t been the right sort of victims for you. They are capable of both being at war, whilst also allowing some of their citizens to represent their country abroad for good reason.
 

Mciahel Goodman

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You’re very naive if you think Russian money do not penetrate individuals in research or human right organizations of all sorts.
That wouldn't surprise me, but his output has been pretty anti-Russian since the war began. He's an academic who deals with war crimes and genocide within Ukraine/Russia in particular, I don't think he's a Russian spy. The people he amplifies on his page, for example, are often cited here as good sources on the state of the war. Koffman and others.
 

UnofficialDevil

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I'm not anti Scottish, I just wanted Moyes out.
Ukraine was invaded in 2014 and has been occupied ever since. Russia currently holds only a small part of Ukraine more than it has since then. What are you expecting? Ukrainians to cry and feel sorry for themselves forever? Sorry, they aren’t been the right sort of victims for you.
Now you're just changing the subject.
 

TMDaines

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Looks like Lviv just got hit by the biggest missile attack of the war so far. Some reporting at least eight explosions.
 

Rajma

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That wouldn't surprise me, but his output has been pretty anti-Russian since the war began. He's an academic who deals with war crimes and genocide within Ukraine/Russia in particular, I don't think he's a Russian spy. The people he amplifies on his page, for example, are often cited here as good sources on the state of the war. Koffman and others.
Anti-Russian??? Read his twitter since the war began, as one-sided as you can get he even calls Ukraine under Zelensky an authoritarian state, while no comments on Putin. :lol: I though you were better than this.
 

Mciahel Goodman

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Anti-Russian??? Read his twitter since the war began, as one-sided as you can get he even calls Ukraine under Zelensky an authoritarian state, while no comments on Putin. :lol: I though you were better than this.
From what I've read he's basically condemned the war as Putin's fault, but there you go, two different interpretations. On the Ukrainian thing, that was after the banning of opposition parties. I read that. I know he's Ukrainian and has been writing on the topic for years, and his academic affiliations are rather good. Anyway, won't derail. His point about the Azov surrender was legitimate, either way.

Sign of improvement if both sides can negotiate that? Maybe not?
 

GlastonSpur

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The cracks are opening ever wider.

He even admitted that virtually the whole world is now against Russia, and that this is a position of isolation that Russia needs to get out of, which of course raises the question - how do they escape from this isolation?

With that question now admitted, the only possible answers (as yet unvoiced by Russian commentators) hove into view: get rid of Putin, end the war, withdraw the troops.
 

BayernFan87

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Wow that's the first time I'm seeing a somewhat sane person on that show.
I was a bit surprised that the others didn't shut him down.

That female host is still unbearable though.

Is this show popular in Russia? I've seen many clips like this shared on social media since the war started but I have no idea how many Russian people regularly watch this show.