I think Jose is on the right track and is putting together a formidable team, but at the moment we are falling just short of where we all want to be. I really am not sure: What are we missing?
Is it just lady luck that has abandoned us?
Do we need to change formation to 442 against certain teams, so that we can get a real threat out of Rashford and Ibra?
Do we need to buy better wingers?
Do we need more commitment from current players, and perhaps the leadersip of a captain willing to drag the teammates to win with a never-say-die attitude?
Or do we need another massive infusion of new blood into the team the next 2 windows to fix our problems?
A) The stats suggest that we're creating as many chances as our main rivals but we can't convert them. As things stand we're third in the Shots on Target category, fourth in Shots from the Penalty Area and first in Attempts in the 6 yard box. That's good enough but the goals aren't coming. Whether that is a case of bad luck or not, we'll be able to draw safer conclusions by the end of the season. We look in control of our games most of the time and therefore, if it's only bad luck, the tide will turn at some point. You can't always choose to hit on 16 and get busted every single time, after all.
Otherwise, we'll have to go back to the drawing board. This can be interpreted in two different ways, the Mourinho haters will tell you that it's solely Mourinho's fault while the ones who really want him here will tell you that the players are the ones to blame. The truth, as always, lies somewhere in the middle. Anyway, the actual fact is that what we're currently watching isn't a typical Mourinho side. I'm not arguing if we're good or bad or if we're progressing, i'm just saying that the stereotypical characteristics of a Mourinho side aren't there yet. The transition in the first 2/3 of the pitch isn't quick (we have created nothing on the counter), the defensive organization is constantly leaking (for instance, yesterday we conceded because we gave away the silliest possible set piece opportunity to one of the best players in the PL in this type of situations) and the famous Mourino backbone is nowhere to be seen (2 solid CBs, a world class #6, a play maker, either an advanced or a deep lying one, where are all these players?).
I am of the opinion that this set of players can play much better in a more direct and urgent style and that's why i turned on LvG in the early months of 2016. We can be aggressive, we can pick up many second balls in the attacking half in order to sustain our pressure and we have attacking/creative players who have enough quality in them to win most PL opponents, if they are offered spaces to exploit with or without the ball. What we don't have is players who are good in tight areas (Zlatan, our best in hold up play can't link up well with anyone), which leads to very few successful one-twos in front of the box, and players who can't create something on their own or unbalance defenses by taking on their man (10th in dribbles pg).
In other words while the quest for the 'perfect pass angle' has gone away along with LvG, the lack of first time balls in dangerous areas, the lack of penetrating runs down the channels and the inability to beat the opponent's defensive transition results to our players trying patiently to find an opening in the opposition defense. And this isn't either the manager's or the players' cup of tea. Now, if we go down that way, it's the quality of the chances that's the problem and not the quantity. If you had put Fergies last title winning side to play this type of football, they would be in the same predicament. That particular side, despite not exactly oozing with talent, did the simple things quite well. We won at the Bridge, at Anfield and at the Etihad because we could rip opponents to shreds on the counter on our day and we turned many one point situations to three (2-3 vs Southampton, 4-3 vs Reading and Newcastle) because we kept testing defenses with first time crosses and continuous runs down the channels.
I really hope it's a case of bad luck and some key players under-performing.
B) Your midfield options are always the ones which determine the relative strength of your formation/tactics. The counter attacking/direct 442 (flat) demands quality on the wings and we don't have much (for certain players it could be a lack of form). Either it's provided by out and out wingers with FBs underlapping or by overlapping FBs with inverted wingers cutting inside in the half spaces, you must have quality in the wide areas in order to play one touch football, put first time balls in the box and generally create openings for good runs. In any other case you just waste a midfielder for a forward for no reason.
Another thing of notice is the CMs, can your two man midfield do the job effectively in both phases of the game? Under Ferguson we didn't have any problems with 2v3 disadvantage in the midfield because of Keane and then Carrick. Different players, different tactics but a side that revolved around both playes' exquisite positional awareness and terrific defensive contribution. Our best midfield options right now are Ander and Pogba and they benefit from having a player in front of them (Mata and Rooney play deep and operate as actual midfielders) or behind them (Carrick).
We should also take into consideration that Mourinho's sides like to go through the middle in the build up phase, much more than Ferguson's sides. This is one of their main differences in terms of tactical approach and that's the main reason why Jose hasn't experimented with 442 much throughout his career.
C) Right now we should invest on both Martial and Mkhitaryan. There's enough end product in both of them. Martial has to improve his off the ball movement instead of hugging the touchline and staying there until the ball comes to him and Miki must get his confidence back. I'm not a fan of constantly changing players, especially when we've broken the bank to sign them.
What we need is more quality, attacking wise, in the FBs positions. Shaw will eventually become the player we all wish he'll become but until that day comes, it's a bad decision not to have and out and out LB who can deliver the goods. On the other side, Valencia is doing most things right up until the final ball.
D) I don't believe it's a lack of commitment. I can't blame the players for not trying on the pitch. They don't look like they don't care to me.
E) We can't tell right now because we've taken many bets with the hope that things will eventually fall into place. Will Herrera become a top holding midfielder? Will Martial and Mkhitaryan put on consistent performances at the level we all know they can play? Will Rahsford become the obvious choice when Zlatan runs down his contract? Will Shaw overcome the psychological factor of his injury?
I'm not a fan of massive overhauls. Right now we can create solutions for many of our problems, it's within the manager's responsibilities to work with what he has at his disposal. But if we really need something in the next transfer windows, i would prioritize the play maker (whether it's an advanced or deep lying one depends on Pogba's role in Jose's 4231) and a FB able to consistently provide end product and constantly be an attacking option for us. Secondary, an experienced leader at the back to partner Bailly. These three players, we simply don't have in the squad*.
* i don't consider Mata to be a play maker in the mold of Ozil, Fabregas or even Sneijder and Deco or Lampard. And when i say a quality FB, i mean one that will do everything that Valencia does but also put the right drilled crosses in the box.