German Elections 2017

[Kasper]

vs

Now that Merkel has declared that she'll run again it's about time that we have a thread about this in here. Obiously it's not as thrilling as the US elections and not too many users will be interested (I expect at least one proper rant from @PedroMendez about the incompetence of the SPD, otherwise I'll be disappointed) but anway, it's still Europe's biggest country after all.

A little background information about the government and the electoral system:
(it's from 2013 but the system is the same anyway)

For those who can't watch it, it's a Mixed Member Proportional system.
The Bundestag has 598 seats. Half of them (299) are elected in single-member constituencies by first-past-the-post voting, while the other 299 members are allocated from party lists to achieve a proportional distribution in the legislature. That means as a voter you vote once for a constituency representative, and a second time for a party. If a party receives more seats than its vote share entitles it to (overhang seats), additional "compensatory" seats are added to the total of 299 to give other parties a proportional number of seats.

The main important parties (there are loads but I'll only list the relevants):

CDU (+CSU)
Merkel's party. They've been in government now since 2005 with different coalitions. They stand for liberal conservatism, in Germany they're basically middle-right in an international sense they've become very centrish (they're closer to the Democrats in the US than to the Republicans for example).

SPD
The social democratic party, traditionally the second biggest party in Germany. They're the junior partner in the government coalition right now and were the last to have a chancellor before Merkel took over (Schröder, from 1998 to 2005). They're very comparable to Labour in Britain, once representing the working class they've moved further and further to the center to appeal for more votes and kinda lost their way by doing that. Will most likely still get the second most votes but it's highly highly unlikely that they'll take over from the CDU.

The left
Democratic socialism, left-wing populism. The party furthest to the left in Germany (not counting some small marxist/communist parties). I've listed them third since they got the third most votes in 2013 but they can easily also get 5th or 6th, hard to tell right now. They've got a lot of voters from the SPD in recent years and they're the only party in parliament right now that regulary criticize Germany's foreign policy. Examples are criticism of the EU burocracy/lobbying (although they don't want to leave the EU), anti-NATO stance, etc.

The Greens
As the name alreadys says, they stand for green politics. They kinda stand between the SPD and the Left, they've also become a lot of more mainstream which has cost them a bit in recent years, since - despite their socialist policies - they can't really connect with the working class (who vote either SPD or the Left) and therefore mostly have a basis amongst students and the liberal intellectual middle/upper class. There are a lot of rumours around that they would consider forming a coalition with the CDU after the election (which was unthinkable 20 years ago) but we'll see.

The FDP
The "Free democratic party" also known as the liberals. They've some funny similarities with the british LibDems. They were in government as a junior partner from 2008-2013 but suffered heavily from this term as 2/3 of their voters ran away at the 2013 election and they failed to reach the 5% threshold to enter parliament for the first time since WW2. They claim to have a liberal position but they've kinda gotten the image of the "party of the rich" as their policies were mostly about economic liberalism (low taxes, privatisation, free unregulated markets, etc.). It's going to be interesting if they get back in, if they do they'll definitely the first choice for the CDU to form a coalition.

AFD (Alternative for Germany)
And finally, the much talked about Alternative for Germany. New founded party in 2013, they started as a eurosceptic, neoliberal party and have since then become increasingly right-wing populistic. They established themselves during the refugee crisis as the supposingly "only alternative" to Merkel's politics and therefore stand for anti-immigration politics. Ironically they're also very hardcore neoliberal and anti-socialist yet get a lot of votes from people who'd suffer under their political agenda. It's hard to tell right now where they end up, I think everything from 10-25% is possible but it's highly unlikely that they'll end up in government since every other party has ruled out to build a coalition with them.


So, the SPD is still deciding who they'll set up as their chancellor candidate, the favorites are Sigmar Gabriel (the one on the right on the picture), who has been chairman of the SPD since 2009, and Martin Schulz, who has been president of the European Parliament since 2012. Olaf Scholz has an outsider chance. It's highly unlikely tho that either of them will end up as the chancellor, Merkel is just too strong.
More interestingly is, what kind of coalition we'll end up with, I'll list the options below:

CDU/SPD (The grand coalition) - It's been the government coalition of this term and could happen again. They'll quite likely have enough votes, question is if the SPD wants to be again the junior partner.

CDU/FDP - Coalition from 2009-2013. Both parties would be up for it but's its highly questionable if they get enough votes.

CDU/Greens - Would be something new, there are a few rumours about it. CDU and Merkel would probably be up for it, not so sure about the Greens. Bit unlikely that they'll have enough seats anyway.

CDU/FDP/Greens - The Jamaica coalition. A mixture of the two above. Given that Greens and FDP make the 5%, it could be possible, I don't think that either the Greens or the FDP would be too thrilled about the perspective tho.

SPD/Greens - Was the coalition from 1998-2005 and both would probably be up for it again. Highly unlikely to get enough seats tho, a lot of would've to change in the next year for that to happen.

SPD/FDP/Greens - Traffic light coalition. Not really likely, as the FDP would probably block that.

SPD/Greens/The Left - A lot of people on the left have asked for this for quite a while (and they would've had enough seats in 2013) but for some reason the SPD keeps ruling this option out before the election, mostly because of "The Left" stance on international politics. So still quite unlikely, although I wouldn't rule it out.

Anything else is basically impossible, since no one wants to enter a coalition with the AfD.

Important note: The meaning of the term "liberal" in Germany (Europe) differs quite a bit from how it is used in the US/around the world. See the posts from @ctp and @Rawls on the first page.

 

[Kasper]

Well, that took some time. If anyone has found a mistake or has something I should add, please tell.

 

[Charlie Foley]

Very informative, thanks.

I studied European Studies but given my language abilities, and then where I lived, have always known more about France or Spain than I know about Germany.

 

[Cheesy]

Shall be interesting. Merkel's ratings and polling seem to have fallen a lot lately but considering how well she's often done, I'd expect her to still pull through.

There's been a lot of talk about the AfD obviously but being such a recent emerging party and still not polling that highly should surely mean they'll struggle to do much more than, say, UKIP here. At least, that's what I'd imagine, so could be wrong. I also hear there's been a lot of infighting, from the types within them who want a genuine racist in charge. Any legs in that?

 

[Carolina Red]

They stand for liberal conservatism, in Germany

Socially liberal/fiscally conservative correct?

 

[MTF]

Very good post @Kasper . Also waiting for @PedroMendez input.

 

[ctp]

Socially liberal/fiscally conservative correct?

Nah, it's pretty much the other way round.

The Union is traditionally understood to be built on three ideological pillars: the (social) conservative, the economically liberal (pro business/free market), and the Christian-social. The CSU, who are only on the ballot in Bavaria, still fit this idea pretty closely in my opinion. On the other hand, the CDU - in the rest of Germany - have moved quite a bit to the centre under Merkel, ceding some traditionally conservative positions on topics like conscription and nuclear energy, and adopting Social Democratic policy in other areas like welfare.

I'll add a general note on the term "liberal" as that will probably come up more times in this thread. In German usage it is not code for left-wing or socialist. It is usually a reference to economic liberalism, and our Liberal Party (FDP) is seen as the pro-business party and as the party of special interest groups like lawyers, chemists, and entrepreneurs. "Liberal" may also refer to an emphasis on personal freedoms, and on putting the needs of the individual before those of society at large.

 

[berbatrick]

Thanks for those posts @ctp and @Kasper

 

[berbatrick]

In case the CDU/SPD coalition happens, again, my gut instinct would be that some voters of both parties would rebel in the next election. In an optimistic world, CDU voters will split between the AfD and FDP, while SPD voters will split between the Greens and Left. In this terrible real world, they'll probably just all jump to the AfD.
Is there a chance of something like that, with both parties continuing to lose their core base?

 

[Lyricist]

In case the CDU/SPD coalition happens, again, my gut instinct would be that some voters of both parties would rebel in the next election. In an optimistic world, CDU voters will split between the AfD and FDP, while SPD voters will split between the Greens and Left. In this terrible real world, they'll probably just all jump to the AfD.
Is there a chance of something like that, with both parties continuing to lose their core base?

Maybe I'm a bit naive but (there's been an international study about this recently) Germans are currently a lot less inclined to follow populist ideas than other European nationals. (probably because we're still thinking about the guilt from 70 years ago)
Therefore I'd hope that there'd be more of a backlash against the AfD than there's been against Trump or UKIP. Add to that how shocked a lot of the (educated) public in Germany was about the fact that the UK really voted for Brexit and that Trump really will become the next American president. There's been A LOT of talk and opinions about these events. Due to Germany's highly influential role in EU politics, obviously most of this talk is about spreading awareness regarding the divisive populist ideals behind the current right wing movements in the western world. There's no real equivalent to Fox News in the major German media landscape that would do promotion for the other side. Therefore I do believe that far less Germans will give the AfD a protest vote or an uninformed "why not" vote for example.
The highest number of AfD anti-globalisation votes actually comes from the areas of Germany that are least affected by globalisation and immigration. The former GDR states have turned from Soviet politics to right wing tendencies rather quickly and have a much bigger problem with prejudice or racism than the rest of Germany.
Finally so far all of the other main parties are completely against anything the AfD stands for and are therefore completely unwilling to form a coalition with the AfD. This will certainly prove important in case the AfD ever gets a surprisingly high number of votes.

As Brexit and Trump show though, these movements definitely have a chance. Therefore it's more important that ever to seek a political dialog with active voters and discuss the pros and cons of these parties.

 

[Rawls]

Nah, it's pretty much the other way round.

The Union is traditionally understood to be built on three ideological pillars: the (social) conservative, the economically liberal (pro business/free market), and the Christian-social. The CSU, who are only on the ballot in Bavaria, still fit this idea pretty closely in my opinion. On the other hand, the CDU - in the rest of Germany - have moved quite a bit to the centre under Merkel, ceding some traditionally conservative positions on topics like conscription and nuclear energy, and adopting Social Democratic policy in other areas like welfare.

I'll add a general note on the term "liberal" as that will probably come up more times in this thread. In German usage it is not code for left-wing or socialist. It is usually a reference to economic liberalism, and our Liberal Party (FDP) is seen as the pro-business party and as the party of special interest groups like lawyers, chemists, and entrepreneurs. "Liberal" may also refer to an emphasis on personal freedoms, and on putting the needs of the individual before those of society at large.

What I am going to write next is something of a tangent but I think it nonetheless an interesting insight into how Liberalism can mean two different things.

I think the term "Liberalism" first originated in Europe where it was an ideology which emphasised economically liberal policies (Deregulation, Laissez-Faire etc.) and then liberal policies on socio-political issues i.e. abortion, divorce etc. This is known in political circles these days as "Classical Liberalism". A good example of this ideology would be the Orange Book faction within the Lib Dems or as you mentioned the FDP in Germany. Classical Liberals were ardent supporters of the free-market as they felt Government intervention was an encroachment upon personal liberties.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Classical_liberalism

Sometime around the start of the 20th Century, there was concern in Britain about the state of the lesser well-off in society. The policies of the Liberal Government from 1906 to 1910 involved the introduction of Old-Age Pensions. Previously, Liberals had been opposed to this as this was an example of state interference in private affairs. This strand of Liberalism would come to be known as "Social Liberalism". A good example of this would be the Beveridge Faction of the Lib Dems, the majority of the Democratic Party in the US or the Liberals in Canada. Social Liberals had the same policies on socio-political issues as the Classical Liberals. The Social Liberals differed on economic policies in that they favoured Government intervention in order to enable genuine equality of opportunity.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_liberalism

For some reason or other, Europeans continued to refer to "Classical Liberalism" as Liberalism in general. On the other hand, Americans started to refer to "Social Liberalism" as general Liberalism. Due to the hegemonic dominance of American culture and trends, some Europeans have begun to adopt the American understanding of Liberalism.

 

[Kasper]

Cheers @ctp and @Rawls, you're absolutely right. I should've said that and will add it in the OP.

@PedroMendez has taken a time out from the CE for the time being but he still gave me his thoughts and said I'm free to share them with you:

I agree with almost everything in your post except the likelihood of a SPD/Linke/Green coalition. If the numbers allow it, the SPD will be forced to go along. I doubt that they’ll get enough votes to make it happen so. Both SPD and “Die Linke” will struggle to get a strong result (for different reasons). It would be a quite interesting experiment so.
The CDU might fancy a coalition with the Green Party, if the numbers allow it. If these two options don’t work out, we’ll see another 4 years of a “Große Koalition” (CDU+SPD)

I could rant against all these parties, because they are all equally useless. My personal views are just too far off, while everyone but “Die Linke” are pretty much the same.

The SPD is still divided between the 3rd Way/New Labour approach (the party-elites lean in this direction) and going back to the "glorious" days of the 50th/60th (its rank and file members lean in this direction). Dunno which wing is more pathetic. The center-leaning elite could integrate perfectly well into the CDU, who gave up on any conservative or market-oriented ideas, while the left leaning base could join the Green and the left-wing Party.

The conservative party under Merkel run out of ideas, ideology and vision. All they do nowadays is argue about trivial bullshit (e.g. autobahn toll for foreigners) or they pinch ideas of the SPD/Greens (minimum wage/ environment protection). If they’d get 100% of the votes, they’d end up doing nothing at all. Merkel only does anything nowadays, when she is forced to (e.g. reaction to crisis or to maintain power).

The Green Party was so successful in the past, that every other party adopted their environmental agenda. So nowadays they differentiate themselves by telling people how often they are allowed to eat meat or what car they should drive. Oh and they love to shout “Nazi” at people, while kicking foreigners and poor people out of their upper-class neighborhoods. I am a vegetarian myself, I don’t own a car and fancy a pro-refugee position, but their delusional paternalism is the stuff out of nightmares. The only positive thing about the Green party is, that they tried to be honest about their proposed spending spree during the last election campaign by also proposing tax increases for the (upper) middle class. Considering that they got a rather bad result, they’ll lie through their teeth this time.

The Liberal Party (FDP) is just useless. Shut them down. They are so scared to stand up for liberal values and ideas (not popular in Germany), that they’ll probably try to outflank other parties on the left just to get over 5%. Their front-man (Christian Lindner) is a weak, opportunistic and empty turncoat. Their last government participation was shambles, because they imploded due to personal incompetence. All they did was to lower taxes for hotels. This time they’d end up being even worse. In short: They are just a marketing campaign that tries to appear hip and modern.

“Die Linke”. Well….at least they differentiate themselves in meaningful ways from the other parties. Parts of their analysis/criticism is surprisingly good and some of their foreign policy proposals are interesting. German democracy is incredibly boring and they are disturbing this merry-go-round a bit. I like that and they are valuable as part of the opposition. Sadly once they start to describe their own vision, I want to puke. If they get in government, the public spending ratio will sky-rocket. They’d bankrupt Germany in a very short time. Considering their past, they probably have something in common with Trump: Their love for walls…but their walls are not built to keep foreigners out…

So last, but not least the AfD. From promoting a few liberal/conservative economic ideas to right-wing extremism in few years. I had sympathy for the early days of this party and their former chef, Bernd Lucke. The way other parties and the media was treating him, was so bizarre, that I still think all that must have been a bad joke. Any pretense of reason was abandoned and replaced by weird scare-mongering. The complete country is choosing to live in an absurd bubble.
Anyway, nowadays they deserve all the abuse they get. They promote the worst combination of right-wing nativism and left-wing state-interventionism. They won’t have anything to do with governing, because they are isolated. Sadly they could reach up to ~25% in the long run, when the other parties continue to be shambles. The other parties are repeating the same mistakes that were made in GB and the USA. They demonize and marginalize this party and its supporters and fail to realize, that they are connecting quite well with a lot of “normal citizens”. Shouting “Nazi” at them won’t stop them from getting ~14-19% (my prediction). Democracy is in trouble of so many people are “beyond the pale”.

I’ll refuse to vote for any of these clowns. Compared to other European elections, this one won’t make a huge difference. Realistically we’ll end up with another 4 years of “Mama Merkel”.


@berbatrick
Both the SPD and the CDU are eroding, but due to the lack of alternatives, the CDU is still holding on to their share of votes. The AfD is still stigmatized in Germany (fortunately). It will take a lot more for them to become an alternative to the CDU/CSU (The AfD is attracting voters from all parties and not just from the conservative section of society)

The SPD is doomed. They are still split and they struggle to reconcile these two directions. The left-right party spectrum isn’t really capturing the current trends particularly well. There are many ways to characterize this and all of them catch just parts of it. Globalism vs. Nationalism. Political mainstream/establishment vs. new-comer/Anti-establishment. Political correctness vs. backlash against politics et.al. The SPD is really caught in the middle of this, while their traditional base is shrinking anyway.

 

[Rawls]

Cheers @ctp and @Rawls, you're absolutely right. I should've said that and will add it in the OP.

@PedroMendez has taken a time out from the CE for the time being but he still gave me his thoughts and said I'm free to share them with you:

I must say that that particular view is remarkably despondent. Do most Germans have a similarly pessimistic outlook toward politics? I'm interested because I see that support for the CDU is falling in opinion polls, albeit falling very slowly and incrementally.

 

[ctp]

I must say that that particular view is remarkably despondent. Do most Germans have a similarly pessimistic outlook toward politics? I'm interested because I see that support for the CDU is falling in opinion polls, albeit falling very slowly and incrementally.

To a certain extent, yes. I think Pedro is particularly pessimistic because his political preferences aren't really championed by any party so he doesn't have anyone to vote for, but his assessment is pretty much spot on.

The biggest problem is that there is little "hope" or "change", no prospect of something different, in German politics. CDU, SPD, FDP, Greens all represent the status quo, the differences are marginal, and they all form coalitions with each on state level. It wasn't a huge issue when things were going well. There was the Left party at 10%, collecting the protest vote and a few stray communists, and a small number of votes (below the 5% threshold for entry into parliament) for various neo-nazi parties. But on the whole people were content to let Merkel administer the country, holding the wheel steady and doing nothing too unexpected or adventurous.

However, that is not going to cut it any more. There are serious issues facing our country and the people want options. This led to the creation of the AfD in response to the Euro crisis by people who wanted an alternative to the bailouts. While that particular crisis is not over, it has largely vanished from public consciousness, and the party was on the way back to obscurity - helped by infighting between the eurosceptic economist wing and the knuckle-dragging nationalist wing (guess who won that). Then Merkel had the brilliant idea of inviting millions of refugees into the country without proper protocol and turned the AfD into the country's third biggest party as a result.

Fortunately, their support is not big enough to put them into power (15-20%), but it will make it more difficult to build a coalition government. I expect another grand coalition (CDU-SPD) and four more years of Merkel and stagnation.

I'd like to vote for an FDP as it could and should be, a proper liberal party, but I'm reluctant to give them my vote after the disappointment of 2009-2013. (In an amusing parallel to the British Libdems, they had their best result in ages, went into coalition with the conservative party, then did feck all but break their manifesto promises.)

 

[Rawls]

To a certain extent, yes. I think Pedro is particularly pessimistic because his political preferences aren't really championed by any party so he doesn't have anyone to vote for, but his assessment is pretty much spot on.

The biggest problem is that there is little "hope" or "change", no prospect of something different, in German politics. CDU, SPD, FDP, Greens all represent the status quo, the differences are marginal, and they all form coalitions with each on state level. It wasn't a huge issue when things were going well. There was the Left party at 10%, collecting the protest vote and a few stray communists, and a small number of votes (below the 5% threshold for entry into parliament) for various neo-nazi parties. But on the whole people were content to let Merkel administer the country, holding the wheel steady and doing nothing too unexpected or adventurous.

However, that is not going to cut it any more. There are serious issues facing our country and the people want options. This led to the creation of the AfD in response to the Euro crisis by people who wanted an alternative to the bailouts. While that particular crisis is not over, it has largely vanished from public consciousness, and the party was on the way back to obscurity - helped by infighting between the eurosceptic economist wing and the knuckle-dragging nationalist wing (guess who won that). Then Merkel had the brilliant idea of inviting millions of refugees into the country without proper protocol and turned the AfD into the country's third biggest party as a result.

Fortunately, their support is not big enough to put them into power (15-20%), but it will make it more difficult to build a coalition government. I expect another grand coalition (CDU-SPD) and four more years of Merkel and stagnation.

Truth be told, I think Germany is experiencing the same political problems as every other major European country. Moreover, the centre-left across Europe seems to be struggling with an existential crisis. It seems that people across Europe have become increasingly disenchanted with the status quo and are more willing to support left-wing and right-wing populist parties. The Global Financial Crisis is probably most responsible for this, with results of the GFC being persistent weak growth, increased income inequality, high unemployment and stagnant wages.

In regards to Germany, you have to remember that Merkel has been Chancellor since 2005. If she were to be returned to power in 2017, there is a possibility that she could remain as Chancellor until 2021. If that were to happen, she would have been Chancellor for 16 years. If anything, disenchantment with German politics has more to do with seeing the same faces over and over again.

On a side note, I was just wondering if there is a thread on the Caf for both the French Presidential Election and Legislative Election next year. The French Elections will probably prove to be of more consequence than the German election (Although that has more to do with the fact that the FN have higher levels of support than the AFD).

 

[Cheesy]

Truth be told, I think Germany is experiencing the same political problems as every other major European country. Moreover, the centre-left across Europe seems to be struggling with an existential crisis. It seems that people across Europe have become increasingly disenchanted with the status quo and are more willing to support left-wing and right-wing populist parties. The Global Financial Crisis is probably most responsible for this, with results of the GFC being persistent weak growth, increased income inequality, high unemployment and stagnant wages.

In regards to Germany, you have to remember that Merkel has been Chancellor since 2005. If she were to be returned to power in 2017, there is a possibility that she could remain as Chancellor until 2021. If that were to happen, she would have been Chancellor for 16 years. If anything, disenchantment with German politics has more to do with seeing the same faces over and over again.

On a side note, I was just wondering if there is a thread on the Caf for both the French Presidential Election and Legislative Election next year. The French Elections will probably prove to be of more consequence than the German election (Although that has more to do with the fact that the FN have higher levels of support than the AFD).

Yeah, was thinking the same - in most modern democracies in the West candidates winning four consecutive elections (maybe even five if she wins again next time) is mostly unheard of - realistically most of the time you'd see the opposition making a comeback and winning (Labour and Blair 97) but if the SPD's prospects are so grim then it's hard to see who else will eventually win over Merkel...except someone promising something very, very different. Suppose the good thing is that despite the AfD's increase in popularity they've got a long, long way to go till they're anywhere remotely near power.

 

[Rawls]

Yeah, was thinking the same - in most modern democracies in the West candidates winning four consecutive elections (maybe even five if she wins again next time) is mostly unheard of - realistically most of the time you'd see the opposition making a comeback and winning (Labour and Blair 97) but if the SPD's prospects are so grim then it's hard to see who else will eventually win over Merkel...except someone promising something very, very different. Suppose the good thing is that despite the AfD's increase in popularity they've got a long, long way to go till they're anywhere remotely near power.

The problem with Grand Coalitions is that it basically neuters the voice of your would-be main opposition party. The SPD in theory should be be broadly-speaking social democratic whereas the CDU should be generally Christian democratic. These two ideologies do have a certain degree of crossover and from what little I know about the German economic model, there is an accepted consensus between the SPD and the CDU on economic matters. As the two main centre-left (I acknowledge the Third Way policies of Schröder) and centre-right (I also recognise the pragmatic centrist tendencies of Merkel) parties openly cooperate and with the FDP being practically moribund, there is no real viable alternative for moderate voters who are unhappy with the Government. This has more than likely created a sense of political disenchantment in Germany. Mind you, things could be worse; France, the Netherlands, Austria and Italy all have major problems with populist parties (The majority of which are hard-right bar the Five Star Movement in Italy). For once as an Irishman, I can actually say we are (For now at least) amongst the best in Europe in that we are one of the few countries which hasn't yet had to deal with right-wing populism.

 

[berbatrick]

I think given these polls, 2010/2015/EU ref/current polling in the UK, the resilience of Rajoy, the fall of Renzi, and of course Hillary: it's fair to say centrist social democracatic parties are in full, possibly terminal retreat in the West. (Scotland, Ireland, and Sweden are hold-outs I think).
In each of them they are threatened by the left but actually beaten by some strain of the right. I remember when Merkel came on the scene reading articles about Germany embracing a centrist conservatism; today she is the liberal vanguard of the world apart from that fraud Trudeau. Post-2008 you'd expect the backlash against the system would hurt the right, but apparently not. Left populism is a non-factor, seen in Syriza's retreat from their radical stances, Podemos' ceiling, and Corbyn's polling. Though the future of the Dems is going to be interesting.

And from @PedroMendez post, the most interesting thing was that the Green party is losing its relevance because others have adopted parts of its agenda in both action and words. I don't think that's happened elsewhere.
And it's heartening that Germans (and their PR system) mean that AfD is far from power.

Question to other Germans here: within the old DDR, who is more popular: Die Linke or AfD? I know that the East is the base for both.

 

[ThierryHenry]

Great thread and contributions from all, thanks for the informative posts.

 

[2cents]

Yeah I knew nothing about any of this, really good thread that has me interested now to see how it pans out.

 

[Globule]

As an ignorant outsider, I'm actually optimistic about the German election. I think if there's one country that will resist the rise in populism it's Germany. The French Presidential election concerns me a lot more.

 

[Revan]

Hoping for a big victory for Merkel, and for a big defeat for AFD. Merkel might be the only right-wing politician I don't strongly dislike.

 

[Rawls]

I think given these polls, 2010/2015/EU ref/current polling in the UK, the resilience of Rajoy, the fall of Renzi, and of course Hillary: it's fair to say centrist social democracatic parties are in full, possibly terminal retreat in the West. (Scotland, Ireland, and Sweden are hold-outs I think).
In each of them they are threatened by the left but actually beaten by some strain of the right. I remember when Merkel came on the scene reading articles about Germany embracing a centrist conservatism; today she is the liberal vanguard of the world apart from that fraud Trudeau. Post-2008 you'd expect the backlash against the system would hurt the right, but apparently not. Left populism is a non-factor, seen in Syriza's retreat from their radical stances, Podemos' ceiling, and Corbyn's polling. Though the future of the Dems is going to be interesting.

And from @PedroMendez post, the most interesting thing was that the Green party is losing its relevance because others have adopted parts of its agenda in both action and words. I don't think that's happened elsewhere.
And it's heartening that Germans (and their PR system) mean that AfD is far from power.

Question to other Germans here: within the old DDR, who is more popular: Die Linke or AfD? I know that the East is the base for both.

What I find most interesting is that centre-left policies are probably the best policies which can be used to reduce income inequality and halt the rise of right-wing populism. Unfortunately, the GFC had led to real disenchantment amongst the working class with regards to technocratic policies and worryingly, that is unlikely to change any time soon.

If anything, the Labour Party in Britain symbolises the existential crisis of the centre-left. The PLP remains adamantly opposed to being tougher on immigration (Something with which I agree) simply because they feel that the benefits of immigration far outweigh its disadvantages. As technocratic and sensible as this approach is however, reducing immigration has become something of a shibboleth for working-class voters (Who previously were ardent supporters of Labour). If Labour continue to have the same immigration policy, they risk losing the working-class vote to UKIP. If this were to happen, Labour's already slim chance of leading a government would become non-existent.

I am unsure as to how this applies to the SPD and I still feel that Germany is probably more tolerant towards immigration than any of its European counterparts. However, what can't be denied is that social democracy is on life support across the West.

P.S. Canada seems to be the exception to the rule whereby they seem to be very supportive of broadly-speaking social democratic policies (Or Social Liberalism to be pedantic). Mind you, Trudeau's charisma may have more to do with that than his actual policies.

 

[Cheesy]

The problem with Grand Coalitions is that it basically neuters the voice of your would-be main opposition party. The SPD in theory should be be broadly-speaking social democratic whereas the CDU should be generally Christian democratic. These two ideologies do have a certain degree of crossover and from what little I know about the German economic model, there is an accepted consensus between the SPD and the CDU on economic matters. As the two main centre-left (I acknowledge the Third Way policies of Schröder) and centre-right (I also recognise the pragmatic centrist tendencies of Merkel) parties openly cooperate and with the FDP being practically moribund, there is no real viable alternative for moderate voters who are unhappy with the Government. This has more than likely created a sense of political disenchantment in Germany. Mind you, things could be worse; France, the Netherlands, Austria and Italy all have major problems with populist parties (The majority of which are hard-right bar the Five Star Movement in Italy). For once as an Irishman, I can actually say we are (For now at least) amongst the best in Europe in that we are one of the few countries which hasn't yet had to deal with right-wing populism.

Same for us in Scotland. Granted it's not the same as you guys because we're still operating in a more regional/semi-federal context, but we've resisted any sort of far-right rise: UKIP are the closest thing we have to one and they're still a joke up here.

Interestingly though the SNP have shown you can have sort of semi-populism, semi anti-establishment politics that answers political discontent without being particularly radical. SNP are fairly neo-liberal, centre-left but have managed to offer those who feel disenchanted with Westminster a voice. Unfortunately few other sensible alternative parties have popped up in Europe and that's a concern: there's definitely a void there in Germany that no one's capitalising upon except from the AfD.

 

[Rawls]

Same for us in Scotland. Granted it's not the same as you guys because we're still operating in a more regional/semi-federal context, but we've resisted any sort of far-right rise: UKIP are the closest thing we have to one and they're still a joke up here.

Interestingly though the SNP have shown you can have sort of semi-populism, semi anti-establishment politics that answers political discontent without being particularly radical. SNP are fairly neo-liberal, centre-left but have managed to offer those who feel disenchanted with Westminster a voice. Unfortunately few other sensible alternative parties have popped up in Europe and that's a concern: there's definitely a void there in Germany that no one's capitalising upon except from the AfD.

To be fair, I wouldn't even go so far as to say the SNP are a populist party; by definition, populism is a revolt against the status quo and the establishment. For as forthright as the SNP have been on issues like Scottish independence and more recently Trident, their aggressive nature has more to do with trying to garner support for independence in Scotland as opposed to being genuinely populist. If Scotland were to become independent and Sturgeon the new PM, the SNP would almost certainly be a central tenet of the Scottish establishment.

I have recently been trying to understand why right-wing populism has become so successful in the US, the UK, France, Germany, Netherlands etc. yet it has not a minor element of the Irish political paradigm. The conclusion to which I have been coming is that right-wing populism is most successful in industrial areas which are now in decline in a somewhat post-industrial world. This would make sense from an Irish perspective as Ireland has never had a strong manufacturing base.

As you correctly point out, I find it hard to comprehend as to how the SNP (Broadly-speaking social democratic but pragmatic nonetheless) can find electoral success yet other social democratic parties seem to be mired in existential crises. Maybe the reason why is that the SNP have managed to cleverly use Scottish independence as the political horse to pull the social democratic carriage. Similarly, it could be said that Justin Trudeau's near unparalleled popularity in Canada has more to do with his personal charisma as opposed to his centre-left policies. If this were to be the case, it would show that (Regrettably) style is much more important than substance in modern-day political campaigning.

 

[Member 5225]

Fantastic OP btw

 

[Rawls]

The link below is not a new development about one of the parties but is instead a possible indication of what is to come.

https://www.ft.com/content/88673a8c...egmentId=d8d3e364-5197-20eb-17cf-2437841d178a

If you can't access the link, read the spoiler below.

Spoiler

The Left, the Greens and the SPD have agreed a three-way coalition for Berlin's city government. This raises the possibility that Merkel being re-elected as Chancellor next year is not a guarantee. According to the article however, this left-of-centre coalition would be unlikely to happen at federal level.

 

[Billy Blaggs]

vs

Now that Merkel has declared that she'll run again it's about time that we have a thread about this in here. Obiously it's not as thrilling as the US elections and not too many users will be interested (I expect at least one proper rant from @PedroMendez about the incompetence of the SPD, otherwise I'll be disappointed) but anway, it's still Europe's biggest country after all.

A little background information about the government and the electoral system:
(it's from 2013 but the system is the same anyway)

For those who can't watch it, it's a Mixed Member Proportional system.
The Bundestag has 598 seats. Half of them (299) are elected in single-member constituencies by first-past-the-post voting, while the other 299 members are allocated from party lists to achieve a proportional distribution in the legislature. That means as a voter you vote once for a constituency representative, and a second time for a party. If a party receives more seats than its vote share entitles it to (overhang seats), additional "compensatory" seats are added to the total of 299 to give other parties a proportional number of seats.

The main important parties (there are loads but I'll only list the relevants):

CDU (+CSU)
Merkel's party. They've been in government now since 2005 with different coalitions. They stand for liberal conservatism, in Germany they're basically middle-right in an international sense they've become very centrish (they're closer to the Democrats in the US than to the Republicans for example).

SPD
The social democratic party, traditionally the second biggest party in Germany. They're the junior partner in the government coalition right now and were the last to have a chancellor before Merkel took over (Schröder, from 1998 to 2005). They're very comparable to Labour in Britain, once representing the working class they've moved further and further to the center to appeal for more votes and kinda lost their way by doing that. Will most likely still get the second most votes but it's highly highly unlikely that they'll take over from the CDU.

The left
Democratic socialism, left-wing populism. The party furthest to the left in Germany (not counting some small marxist/communist parties). I've listed them third since they got the third most votes in 2013 but they can easily also get 5th or 6th, hard to tell right now. They've got a lot of voters from the SPD in recent years and they're the only party in parliament right now that regulary criticize Germany's foreign policy. Examples are criticism of the EU burocracy/lobbying (although they don't want to leave the EU), anti-NATO stance, etc.

The Greens
As the name alreadys says, they stand for green politics. They kinda stand between the SPD and the Left, they've also become a lot of more mainstream which has cost them a bit in recent years, since - despite their socialist policies - they can't really connect with the working class (who vote either SPD or the Left) and therefore mostly have a basis amongst students and the liberal intellectual middle/upper class. There are a lot of rumours around that they would consider forming a coalition with the CDU after the election (which was unthinkable 20 years ago) but we'll see.

The FDP
The "Free democratic party" also known as the liberals. They've some funny similarities with the british LibDems. They were in government as a junior partner from 2008-2013 but suffered heavily from this term as 2/3 of their voters ran away at the 2013 election and they failed to reach the 5% threshold to enter parliament for the first time since WW2. They claim to have a liberal position but they've kinda gotten the image of the "party of the rich" as their policies were mostly about economic liberalism (low taxes, privatisation, free unregulated markets, etc.). It's going to be interesting if they get back in, if they do they'll definitely the first choice for the CDU to form a coalition.

AFD (Alternative for Germany)
And finally, the much talked about Alternative for Germany. New founded party in 2013, they started as a eurosceptic, neoliberal party and have since then become increasingly right-wing populistic. They established themselves during the refugee crisis as the supposingly "only alternative" to Merkel's politics and therefore stand for anti-immigration politics. Ironically they're also very hardcore neoliberal and anti-socialist yet get a lot of votes from people who'd suffer under their political agenda. It's hard to tell right now where they end up, I think everything from 10-25% is possible but it's highly unlikely that they'll end up in government since every other party has ruled out to build a coalition with them.


So, the SPD is still deciding who they'll set up as their chancellor candidate, the favorites are Sigmar Gabriel (the one on the right on the picture), who has been chairman of the SPD since 2009, and Martin Schulz, who has been president of the European Parliament since 2012. Olaf Scholz has an outsider chance. It's highly unlikely tho that either of them will end up as the chancellor, Merkel is just too strong.
More interestingly is, what kind of coalition we'll end up with, I'll list the options below:

CDU/SPD (The grand coalition) - It's been the government coalition of this term and could happen again. They'll quite likely have enough votes, question is if the SPD wants to be again the junior partner.

CDU/FDP - Coalition from 2009-2013. Both parties would be up for it but's its highly questionable if they get enough votes.

CDU/Greens - Would be something new, there are a few rumours about it. CDU and Merkel would probably be up for it, not so sure about the Greens. Bit unlikely that they'll have enough seats anyway.

CDU/FDP/Greens - The Jamaica coalition. A mixture of the two above. Given that Greens and FDP make the 5%, it could be possible, I don't think that either the Greens or the FDP would be too thrilled about the perspective tho.

SPD/Greens - Was the coalition from 1998-2005 and both would probably be up for it again. Highly unlikely to get enough seats tho, a lot of would've to change in the next year for that to happen.

SPD/FDP/Greens - Traffic light coalition. Not really likely, as the FDP would probably block that.

SPD/Greens/The Left - A lot of people on the left have asked for this for quite a while (and they would've had enough seats in 2013) but for some reason the SPD keeps ruling this option out before the election, mostly because of "The Left" stance on international politics. So still quite unlikely, although I wouldn't rule it out.

Anything else is basically impossible, since no one wants to enter a coalition with the AfD.

Important note: The meaning of the term "liberal" in Germany (Europe) differs quite a bit from how it is used in the US/around the world. See the posts from @ctp and @Rawls on the first page.

Thanks for that. I had no clue.

 

[Javi]

Can someone shortly name the profile of the key figurs of each party?

 

[Rawls]

Can someone shortly name the profile of the key figurs of each party?

CDU - Angela Merkel (Chancellor)
- Wolfgang Schäuble (Minister for Finance)

SPD - Sigmar Gabriel (Chairman)
- Martin Schulz (Former President of the European Parliament)

The Left - Katja Kipping (Co-Leader)
- Bernd Riexinger (Co-Leader)

CSU - Horst Seehofer (President)

FDP - Christian Lindner (Chairman)

Greens - Simone Peter (Co-Leader)
- Cem Özdemir (Co-Leader)

AfD - Jörg Meuthen (Spokesperson)
- Frauke Petry (Chairman)

 

[Nick 0208 Ldn]

Inflation 'Horror-Kurve' raising concern in Germany, as fears over destructive boom-bust cycle mount

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/01/08/german-fury-mounts-inflation-horror-kurve/

 

[coolredwine]

Hoping for a big victory for Merkel, and for a big defeat for AFD. Merkel might be the only right-wing politician I don't strongly dislike.

Merkel is right wing?!

 

[coolredwine]

Can someone create a thread for the French elections as well? I believe that would be more interesting to watch. @JPRouve @Rooney in Paris

 

[Revan]

Merkel is right wing?!

Well, center-right is probably more correct.

 

[Neutral]

BBC Breaking News ‏@BBCBreaking
Germany says 280,000 asylum seekers arrived there in 2016, a drop of more than 600,000 on previous year

That's a massive and welcome drop.

 

[GhastlyHun]

BBC Breaking News ‏@BBCBreaking
Germany says 280,000 asylum seekers arrived there in 2016, a drop of more than 600,000 on previous year

That's a massive and welcome drop.

Yeah, most of them are right now stuck somewhere in the balkans and in danger of freezing to death in makeshift camps made of tents which collapse under tons of snow. Welcome!

 

[Neutral]

Yeah, most of them are right now stuck somewhere in the balkans and in danger of freezing to death in makeshift camps made of tents which collapse under tons of snow. Welcome!

I genuinely thought the numbers had eased up

 

[GhastlyHun]

I genuinely thought the numbers had eased up

It's probably overall a lot less people on the move. Yet there are camps in south eastern Europe where lots of people are stranded and live under extremely harsh conditions right now, which is getting very little attention.

 

[utdalltheway]

Thought they were supposed to shift most migrants back to Turkey, then allowing those that qualify, back in? So why are they still stuck in Greece, etc?

 

[VidaRed]

The right will win.