We are 1 point(s) off 3rd

Irrational.

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Let's look at the run-in for each team:

I'm not including Sheffield as they've fallen off a cliff recently.

Leicester

Palace (H) - Won 3-0 (+2)
Arsenal (A) - Drew 1-1 (+1)
Bournemouth (A) - Lost 4-1 (-3)
Sheffield (H) - Won 2-0 (+2)
Spurs (A)
Manchester United (H)

Chelsea

Watford (H) - Won 3-0 (0)
Palace (A) - Won 2-3 (+3)
Sheffield (A) - Lost 3-0 (-1)
Norwich (H) - Won 1-0 (0)
Liverpool (A)
Wolves (H)

Manchester United

Bournemouth (H) - Won 5-2 (0)
Villa (A) - Won 3-0 (0)
Southampton (H) - Drew 2-2 (-2)
Palace (A) - Won 2-0 (+2)
West Ham (H)
Leicester (A)

Wolves

Arsenal (H) - Lost 0-2 (-3)
Sheffield (A) - Lost 1-0 (-1)
Everton (H) - Won 3-0 (+2)
Burnley (A) - Drew 1-1 (0)
Palace (H)
Chelsea (A)

We have the more favourable fixtures yet the other teams have the points in the bag. Arse and Spurs could also make a late dash for it. How likely are we to pip Leicester and Chelsea? That last match week will be decisive I think: Chelsea vs Wolves and Leicester vs United.

We shouldn't be losing any fixtures until then. I'm optimistic.

EDIT: Updated 16/07/2020
 
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I don't see Arse getting in with their run of games and Spurs could go either way with Jose.

I can honestly see Wolves sneaking into 4th with us or Chelsea 3rd
 
I reckon we’ll get third even with 15 points, but 18 should be achievable and frankly expected.

Chelsea will drop points in at least two more games, as will Leicester and Wolves.

Come on, now. We go for it!
 
I thought we were meant to be getting relegated?
 
Irrational. said:
Let's look at the run-in for each team:

I'm not including Sheffield as they've fallen off a cliff recently.

Leicester

Palace (H)
Arsenal (A)
Bournemouth (A)
Sheffield (H)
Spurs (A)
Manchester United (H)

Chelsea

Watford (H)
Palace (A)
Sheffield (A)
Norwich (H)
Liverpool (A)
Wolves (H)

Manchester United

Bournemouth (H)
Villa (A)
Southampton (H)
Palace (A)
West Ham (H)
Leicester (A)

Wolves

Arsenal (H)
Sheffield (A)
Everton (H)
Burnley (A)
Palace (H)
Chelsea (A)

We have the more favourable fixtures yet the other teams have the points in the bag. Arse and Spurs could also make a late dash for it. How likely are we to pip Leicester and Chelsea? That last match week will be decisive I think: Chelsea vs Wolves and Leicester vs United.

We shouldn't be losing any fixtures until then. I'm optimistic.
Click to expand...

Not sure i quite follow your color scheme? Are you ranking the game by how hard it is or?

But to answer the topic of the thread: Our fixture list is by far the most forgiving, and we're in a pretty wild form. The danger for us is a injury on key players. I fully believe that with this fixture list we're favorites for third now.
 
I reckon we'll take 12-15 points from those, and Chelsea about the same from theirs. It's going right down to the wire.
 
There is no crowd..so home advantage isnt that huge.

Why is Palace at home tough for Leicester but easy for Wolves?

Wolves' fixture list looks really tough... I am counting on 5th to get CL.. and with that fixture list for Wolves, I think its pretty much in the bag unless we feck up big time.
 
Tom Cato said:
Not sure i quite follow your color scheme? Are you ranking the game by how hard it is or?
Click to expand...
As far as I can tell it's

Green = Expected easy win
Yellow = Should win, but potential to slip
Red = Can't really complain if points are dropped

As far as the topic goes, as long as we beat Leicester I really can't see how both of them manage to finish above us. At least one of them will drop more points than us. I think we'll finish third, but I'd put decent money on top four if I was a betting man.
 
I mean, it's fantastic if we end up getting top 4, but I really does say something about the quality of the league this year for that to be possible after the first half of the season.
 
Tom Cato said:
Not sure i quite follow your color scheme? Are you ranking the game by how hard it is or?
Click to expand...

Yup, mixture of difficulty level and league position. Bit arbitrary but teams in the bottom 8 are in green, teams in the top 6 in red, and the rest orange (think Arsenal should be orange too).

We can't get carried away but I'm sure the other teams would snatch our hands off for our set of fixtures - we simply cannot afford to feck up.

Red Stone said:
As far as I can tell it's

Green = Expected easy win
Yellow = Should win, but potential to slip
Red = Can't really complain if points are dropped
Click to expand...

Exactly this.
 
It all hinges on whether we can maintain momentum. This season has shown us that when we are given a chance, we don't often capitalise.

Also, we appear to have an easy run in but it's actually very hard, those are teams we really struggle against.
 
Tiber said:
Aren't we a 3 or 4 games from disaster?
Click to expand...

We have the lowest point total so far in a season in the PL era. Although the other teams got pretty low points too so we can still do better than the Moyes season.
 
Irrational. said:
Yup, mixture of difficulty level and league position. Bit arbitrary but teams in the bottom 8 are in green, teams in the top 6 in red, and the rest orange (think Arsenal should be orange too).

We can't get carried away but I'm sure the other teams would snatch our hands off for our set of fixtures - we simply cannot afford to feck up.



Exactly this.
Click to expand...

Alright fair enough, seems like reasonable estimates. Hopefully the Leicester game will be a game we can afford to lose when we get that far, they are falling appart at the seams.
 
When was the last time we finished 3rd? Assuming it was during Jose's early days when Arsenal still were relevant?
 
We need to maintain this winning run, if Ole can finish third can't do anything but applaud his efforts. We need top four but we should definitely target third.
 
Jacko21 said:
Just so long as it doesn’t go down to the final game.

Can’t be doing with that.
Click to expand...

It seems destined for exactly that. Leicester vs United and Chelsea vs Wolves on the last day, with top 4 up for grabs for the two winners.
 
Jacko21 said:
Just so long as it doesn’t go down to the final game.

Can’t be doing with that.
Click to expand...
Will be very hard to have a situation that we're 4 points ahead of Leicester come that last game. Need to win every game by then (doable) to be on 67 points, but means they can only gain 8 points max from Palace (H), Arsenal (A), Bournemouth (A), Sheffield (H), Spurs (A). Some tough fixtures but bournemouth is awful right now and Sheffield United I'd say will struggle, and Leicester's performances haven't been thaaaaat bad to expect them to lose every game. So 2 points max from Palace, Arsenal or Spurs is possible, but also very unlikely (along with us winning every game, which is likelier but shit always happens).
 
Our run of fixtures in the middle of July:

13 Southampton home
15 Crystal Palace away
18 West Ham Home
19 Chelsea Fa cup semi final

Fa cup is a fixed date, one of the palace or West Ham games will be moved forward. If our challengers get points on the board we will be under enormous pressure.

Well finish 5th.

Just hope we win Europa:wenger:
 
My fear is Fernandes getting tired or Pogba/Fernandes getting injured. Without those two, this team has no creativity (no depth) and we will lose games.

Only chance of them getting rest is if we keep blowing teams out, or they will have to play every 3 days with the post-break schedule.
 
We have huge momentum right now.

We've done really well to get ourselves back in contention and anything is possible.

I would be disappointed if we didn't get the top 4 considering our fixtures remaining, but it could all come down to the last game with Leicester.
 
Ishpan2 said:
My fear is Fernandes getting tired or Pogba/Fernandes getting injured. Without those two, this team has no creativity (no depth) and we will lose games.
Click to expand...

Yep. We are on the way towards having a decent team, but absolutely miles away from having a decent squad. No attacking quality at all outside of the first XI.
 
passing-wind said:
We need to maintain this winning run, if Ole can finish third can't do anything but applaud his efforts. We need top four but we should definitely target third.
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Ole has done so himself.

“I have never said fourth is our aim. We want to win, we want to go up to third, of course we want to,. Hopefully we can count the points and only have two teams ahead of us at the end.”

https://footballinside.net/2020/06/...e-after-martial-leads-the-way-with-hat-trick/
 
If we get top four and win both cup competitions then Ole has pulled off a miracle from where we were earlier in the season, the possibility of finishing third is mindblowing as at one point I thought this very well could be worse than the Moyes season.

I won’t lie I didn’t believe that Ole was a good enough coach and because he knew what we needed in terms of recruitment and mentality I thought he was perfect as our Director Of Football with someone like Pochettino coming in as head coach but I was wrong, Ole has stuck to his ideas and it’s benefitted is short term and will certainly also long term.
 
We are the 3rd best team in the league at full strength I reckon. We’ve shown that in games against Chelsea and City. The only reason we are behind Chelsea is because of our genuinely relegation form in the first few months of the season where injuries meant we had shite playing every week and our new signings weren’t firing the way they are now (or hadn’t even arrived yet).

The fact we even have a shot at top 4 reflects very poorly on Chelsea and Leicester. We have improved so much compared to what we were it’s scary. This season should have been over for us in December.

Don’t write Wolves off by the way.
 
We have to absolutely pump Bournemouth. Send a message that the banter era is well and truly over. I want blood.

Forget the other teams around us, tunnel vision, win all of our games.
 
At the restart of the PL I said that I thought Leicester would be caught, and us and Chelsea would be the two teams occupying third and fourth, in whichever order. I stand by that.
 
One thing we all need to consider is that ‘easy’ games often flip at this time of year. Chelsea losing to West Ham is a case in point. Teams down the bottom are desperate for points.
 
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