Future of Trumpism

Edgar Allan Pillow

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So I keep reading that Trump may have been defeated, but Trumpism is still strong in various articles.

EC aside, a staggering 70m+ people have voted for Trump and that's despite the most adverse set of circumstances for a incumbent (in addition to his own incompetency and megalomania).

Biden should deliver a very good first term or a return to Trumpism (even from one of his surrogates directly) is still a possibility. It's not really that difficult to foresee WI, MI, AZ, GA etc to move the other way easily.

They key issues of abortion, LGBT rights, environment are all black and white. I don't think either party can convince the other to change their position...which leaves economy/jobs and immigration as the main deciding factors for next election.
 

horsechoker

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How much does Trumpism rely on Trump?

There's a possibility he "takes a trip to Belize", so is it possible for someone to do what he did?

Trump in many ways is a unique figure, he built himself up as a household name and I don't know if there's anybody like that now with the far right. Certainly, there are much "cleverer" individuals in that area but don't they have the sway that Trump does?
 

2cents

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He has provided something of a model for political mobilization that is here to stay unfortunately. However I find it hard to envision the emergence of a figure who can broaden this model’s appeal beyond the boundaries which Trump ultimately met, while at the same time avoiding Trump’s self-destructive tendencies. Hopefully I’m not just lacking a bit of imagination.
 

calodo2003

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It’s been 30 minutes, and I’ve had more engagement on @parler than I’ve ever had on #ShiTwitter.

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@realDonldTrump needs to make the full on switch to this platform...

God bless our Republic. The Left is the enemy of The People—as our President says—and we cannot afford to lay by their rules.

https://parler.com/post/51f9e7e446684c79a1d7e7a6dc20b6d0
 

jeff_goldblum

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He has provided something of a model for political mobilization that is here to stay unfortunately. However I find it hard to envision the emergence of a figure who can broaden this model’s appeal beyond the boundaries which Trump ultimately met, while at the same time avoiding Trump’s self-destructive tendencies. Hopefully I’m not just lacking a bit of imagination.
My (albeit hopeful) suspicion is that no-one will be able to capture the combination of memeability, 'Washington outsider'-ness and sheer personality that Trump brought to the table and which a huge number of people found appealing. I mean, Trump trashed Ted Cruz in the Primaries despite Cruz' rhetoric being everything the Trump-supporters wanted. There's something Trump had which no other Republican did running up to 2016, and doubt any other Republican will he able to find before 2024.
 

Cloud7

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The one thing I hoped about this election was that it would show a rejection of the dangerous far right movements that have been popping up all over the world. In a lot of ways it feels like many of them were empowered by Trump, and many people felt more secure in taking off their masks and revealing their true selves.

Biden in isolation is nothing special, but I do hope that this is the first step in the right direction away from all the hateful, discriminatory rhetorics that have become prominent.
 

berbatrick

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Tucker Carlson.
Wihin the party, Josh Hawley speaks some of the same language but he looks and feels like a politician rather than an insane man, which is a minus.
 

calodo2003

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Tucker Carlson.
Wihin the party, Josh Hawley speaks some of the same language but he looks and feels like a politician rather than an insane man, which is a minus.
Hawkey does tick a lot of the boxes off. He’s telegenic, fashy, utilizes legitimate batshittery, but seems to possess some political talent.
 

sullydnl

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It's a good question. I'm unsure how much of Trumpism is based on his own little cult of personality. There were lunatics prior to Trump too after all, they just didn't get the same traction he did.
 

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This ‘Trumpism’ you speak of far predates him, and based on other current examples in places like Europe and Brazil I’d say it has a lot of gas left in the tank.
 

Raoul

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So I keep reading that Trump may have been defeated, but Trumpism is still strong in various articles.

EC aside, a staggering 70m+ people have voted for Trump and that's despite the most adverse set of circumstances for a incumbent (in addition to his own incompetency and megalomania).

Biden should deliver a very good first term or a return to Trumpism (even from one of his surrogates directly) is still a possibility. It's not really that difficult to foresee WI, MI, AZ, GA etc to move the other way easily.

They key issues of abortion, LGBT rights, environment are all black and white. I don't think either party can convince the other to change their position...which leaves economy/jobs and immigration as the main deciding factors for next election.
To have Trumpism you need Trump - a cult of personality demagogue who can galvanize the masses around the interests of one person (but framed as working class populism for the masses). Once he leaves the political scene there won't be anyone left to take his place, so we may see a reversion to a conventional Tea Party style lunacy where a group of R candidates vie for the nomination.
 

Precaution

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Honestly unless you have someone that is engaging and "charamastic" as Trump is then I doubt it'll go much further, you'll always have a core set of fans and it's whether Republicans embrace that move or it splits off into an Independent party which will favour the Democrats in the end.

If Don Jr ever takes over then I expect him to flop, he will only get a core group and Ivanka wouldn't get near any of his support, Tim Cotton isn't exactly engaging and the only person I do see a challenge but I doubt would embrace Trumpism that much is Liz Cheney.
 

Edgar Allan Pillow

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To have Trumpism you need Trump - a cult of personality demagogue who can galvanize the masses around the interests of one person (but framed as working class populism for the masses). Once he leaves the political scene there won't be anyone left to take his place, so we may see a reversion to a conventional Tea Party style lunacy where a group of R candidates vie for the nomination.
There's other Trump's there. Within the Trumpian circles, Eric and Don Jr. are still popular and with a bit of effort, can step up. And that group will vote for Ivanka if she stands.

But in principle, I don't think Trumpian needs Trump. All I needs is a populist hardcore conservative to carry on the torch. I can easily see him "canonized" and other holding the torch in his name.
 

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How different really is Trumpism from the Tea Party ideas?
 

Raoul

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There's other Trump's there. Within the Trumpian circles, Eric and Don Jr. are still popular and with a bit of effort, can step up. And that group will vote for Ivanka if she stands.

But in principle, I don't think Trumpian needs Trump. All I needs is a populist hardcore conservative to carry on the torch. I can easily see him "canonized" and other holding the torch in his name.
Trump's kids are just appendages to him. None of them have even the slightest trace of potential or skillset to repeat what he can do. Therefore in the absence of the person who actually created Trumpism, it will likely collapse into something different, probably involving the platoon of normal Republican politicians interested in leading the party. Cruz, Rubio, Haley, Cotton, Hawley, Paul, and about a half dozen others will try to fill the void once Trump leaves.
 

Redplane

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How different really is Trumpism from the Tea Party ideas?
The batshit side is definitely a source for Trumpism... But.. For starters - the tea party seems to be (in part) based on fiscal conservatism. When has Trump ever actually done anything that amounts to fiscal frugality other than cutting funding or rather shifting funding from items he hated and things he just wanted rather than implementing legitimate cost saving measures?

The clowns will be absored by the Rs or cast out just like the Tea Party and Palins of the world. They like useful idiots. When they're no longer useful the idiot gets pushed aside.
 

Raoul

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How different really is Trumpism from the Tea Party ideas?
Quite different in that the Tea Party movement and was diffuse and decentralized, and focused on traditional conservative issues (albeit on steroids); whereas Trumpism is based around the interests of Donald Trump and the transactional bargain he made with conservatives; where they support him and in exchange he advances portions of their agenda, and they in turn don't push back when he does whatever he wants. Its basically transactional authoritarianism.
 

VidaRed

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There is no such thing as trumpism. It is basically majoritarianism populism combined with xenophobia or tribalism and this phenomenon is gaining traction throughout the world, trump merely capitalized on it and someone else will also try to.
 

Bebestation

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I'm completely useless with politics, can someone help me? Considering Biden and Trump was near 50/50 all through the voting stage - do people think that Trump could be President on the next election if he goes for it again? Would he go for it again?
 

Edgar Allan Pillow

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Trump's kids are just appendages to him. None of them have even the slightest trace of potential or skillset to repeat what he can do. Therefore in the absence of the person who actually created Trumpism, it will likely collapse into something different, probably involving the platoon of normal Republican politicians interested in leading the party. Cruz, Rubio, Haley, Cotton, Hawley, Paul, and about a half dozen others will try to fill the void once Trump leaves.
I don't think you need the same skillet. In fact what skillet did Trump have? Rich and successful business man was his entire persona and that not really hard to replicate. His agenda is what counts and that will survive his defeat.

And none of those you mention will be the heir apparent. They are traditional GOP more than Trump supporters. He won because he offered something other than traditional Republicans offered and so I'd still count on his surrogates to cause trouble.
 

Edgar Allan Pillow

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There is no such thing as trumpism. It is basically majoritarianism populism combined with xenophobia or tribalism and this phenomenon is gaining traction throughout the world, trump merely capitalized on it and someone else will also try to.
You're just using more words. That is Trumpism as he's the most popular proponent of this. He may not have started this, but his popularity will ensure his name remains synonymous with it.
 

Carolina Red

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It’s been 30 minutes, and I’ve had more engagement on @parler than I’ve ever had on #ShiTwitter.

Free speech is a beautiful thing.

@realDonldTrump needs to make the full on switch to this platform...

God bless our Republic. The Left is the enemy of The People—as our President says—and we cannot afford to lay by their rules.

https://parler.com/post/51f9e7e446684c79a1d7e7a6dc20b6d0
Yeah I can see that place becoming the next Chan
 

Irwin99

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There's still a huge audience for it or something very similar; the proliferation of fake news, alternative facts, and conspiracy theories isn't going to go away any time soon in the age of social media and there's a hatred for the left wing/identity politics where far right ideas are seen as 'counter-cultural' and cool by a number of people. To be honest I don't really know how you address it.

Found it funny and shocking how words like 'commie' and 'marxist' have been thrown about like it was the 1980s again just lately. It's like, we're back to this again are we? The Democrats are a communist party according to some now :confused:
 

Synco

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Wait until Tom Cotton takes the oath of office.
Looked him up, he comes across as an almost cartoonish GOP hardliner. Plus combat veteran credentials. Looks like a good candidate for the nutters to rally around.

Among the most interesting questions for me is if/how the US right will try to maneuver between their hardcore neoliberal elitism and that MAGA "white working class" populism in the future.
 

hobbers

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I'm completely useless with politics, can someone help me? Considering Biden and Trump was near 50/50 all through the voting stage - do people think that Trump could be President on the next election if he goes for it again? Would he go for it again?
Depends on if the GOP are weak enough to let him.

It'd be novel if the 2024 election featured two candidates who can both string a sentence together but I'm not holding my breath on that. Trump vs another useless Dem candidate seems a decent bet.
 

Cait Sith

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Trumpism aka having a 3rd world education system.

Figure like Trump wouldn't even get 10 % of the votes in a normal first world country like Germany, Finland, Sweden, Switzerland etc. In a nation where 40 % outright believe in creationism that's a different story of course.
 

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Trumpism aka having a 3rd world education system.

Figure like Trump wouldn't even get 10 % of the votes in a normal first world country like Germany, Finland, Sweden, Switzerland etc. In a nation where 40 % outright believe in creationism that's a different story of course.
The UK has BoJo as PM and accidentally voted itself out of the European Union.
 

Sky1981

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So I keep reading that Trump may have been defeated, but Trumpism is still strong in various articles.

EC aside, a staggering 70m+ people have voted for Trump and that's despite the most adverse set of circumstances for a incumbent (in addition to his own incompetency and megalomania).

Biden should deliver a very good first term or a return to Trumpism (even from one of his surrogates directly) is still a possibility. It's not really that difficult to foresee WI, MI, AZ, GA etc to move the other way easily.

They key issues of abortion, LGBT rights, environment are all black and white. I don't think either party can convince the other to change their position...which leaves economy/jobs and immigration as the main deciding factors for next election.
Not gonna happen

His first 100 days program are what the Trumpism isn't happy with : Daca/JCPOA/Immigration.

The economy is gonna tank bar a miracle of biblical proportion due to Corona, there's nothing Biden can do that can be categorized good enough. Even if he's good he won't be good enough in Trumpism eye.

He's like Rafael Benitez in Real Madrid, not bad but you know he'll never be loved there. Even democrats have reservations on him, it's just that he's anyone else but Trump.
 

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Not gonna happen

His first 100 days program are what the Trumpism isn't happy with : Daca/JCPOA/Immigration.

The economy is gonna tank bar a miracle of biblical proportion due to Corona, there's nothing Biden can do that can be categorized good enough. Even if he's good he won't be good enough in Trumpism eye.

He's like Rafael Benitez in Real Madrid, not bad but you know he'll never be loved there. Even democrats have reservations on him, it's just that he's anyone else but Trump.
When the economy tanks will be the deal breaker. If it does in the next 6mths-1 years as cases keep mounting up and people ran out of saving, he will be in a sharp recovery by his 3rd or 4th year, which benefits the incumbent in an election.

Recession/depression is only an issue when it’s in election year.
 

Sky1981

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When the economy tanks will be the deal breaker. If it does in the next 6mths-1 years as cases keep mounting up and people ran out of saving, he will be in a sharp recovery by his 3rd or 4th year, which benefits the incumbent in an election.

Recession/depression is only an issue when it’s in election year.
Trump is still living of Obama's high wave in his first 2-3 years, he was very lucky COVID happened he got the big black goat to blame. Biden will inherit all the aftermath of both COVID and the trade war. There won't be sharp recovery, it may be in normal times but COVID is not normal times.

I don't see COVID ending for at least another year, 2 years to vaccinate the world at best. This time it's different the whole world is in recession, American exports like (McD/Starbucks/Pizzahut/KFC) are already struggling to remain open in here.

There's no easy fix, I'd predict a 10 year age of depression world wide. Airlines across the world are already laying off in thousands, tourism and hotels are practically well and truly dead in most part.


It'll only get worse, and the next President will sling muds towards him and win easy I fear
 

Wittmann45

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Quite different in that the Tea Party movement and was diffuse and decentralized, and focused on traditional conservative issues (albeit on steroids); whereas Trumpism is based around the interests of Donald Trump and the transactional bargain he made with conservatives; where they support him and in exchange he advances portions of their agenda, and they in turn don't push back when he does whatever he wants. Its basically transactional authoritarianism.
That is a good point. I kind of have trouble knowing what the Tea Party stands for because, as you say, they are so decentralized, but Trump does check some boxes with his policies on illegal immigration, taxation, some parts of his foreign policy, guy control, energy, health care. Even if they have policy differences, a lot of Tea Partiers currently in office have jumped onto the Trump bandwagon. Jeff Flake has been the exception as he was someone who was pretty critical of Trump. In Flake's case, he called Trump out before he got elected and Trump returned the favour by campaigning for basically every one of Flake's primary opponents before Flake announced he wasn't going to run for reelection. Even though Flake was already unpopular in Arizona, stuff like that probably was a pretty big early sign that Tea Partiers were going to have to fall in line. PBS had a Frontline episode about Trump's first 100 days and it mainly focused on his tax legislation. The amount of Republican politicians, including Paul Ryan, that claimed they were going to be able to curtail Trump's worst inclinations was, now in retrospect, completely absurd. Trump really has done an amazing job of getting his own party in line. I don't know if anyone else can capture that same ruthlessness and cult of personality enough to hold such influence.

Do you think that even if Trump's policies don't match completely with the Tea Party, perhaps Trump latched on to public sentiment that the Tea Party movement exposed?

People also love Trump because they think he has charisma, they think he talks their language and they think he is funny. He has an "outsider" persona that people love and they are drawn to him because they think he is "authentic". Even if his supporters are seen as non-thinking cultists, creating that cult is not easy.

So, one example I think is interesting is Arizona. Trump lost the state, in part, because he picked a fight with someone as popular in Arizona as John McCain, basically continued to hurl insults after McCain was dead, and started a war with McCain's widow. Trump failed to win a state that has voted pretty solidly Republic in presidential elections for 20 years. Democrats are celebrating this as the "Revenge" of John/Cindy McCain. All cheers. However, Trump still got more votes in Arizona than any other Republican nominee for President, including McCain in 2008, and only lost by 20,000 votes. So, if someone similar to Trump can come around, say similar things, but not constantly pick fights with dead, popular war heroes, that person might win back Arizona. But, what caused 1.6 million people from Arizona to continue to support him despite his comments and can a potential Trump-lite presidential candidate continue to appeal and motivate that type of (disturbing) populist movement? Is the ground swell of support permanent without the rhetoric or does the hateful rhetoric create the groundswell of support? Would a more polished politician, who whose every instinct would be to avoid picking fights with war veterans and widows, still hold onto the same mass appeal?

However, and nothing against Biden, but Joe Biden was a pretty uninspired candidate. But he too got more votes in Arizona then any other Democratic nominee, and (I think), more votes nationwide than any other nominee ever while winning on the basis of the largest turnout since 1904/1908. But Trump also received more vote than any other Republican candidate for president. So, another issue is whether an individual can build on that Trump movement while not creating a Democrat reaction. But part of Trump's appeal is this idea of "owning the Libs" and saying such offensive and outlandish things that it creates both a positive response and a negative reaction. It is hard to replicate his coalition while not causing a similar backlash
 
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Sky1981

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That is a good point. I kind of have trouble knowing what the Tea Party stands for because, as you say, they are so decentralized, but Trump does check some boxes with his policies on illegal immigration, taxation, some parts of his foreign policy, guy control, energy, health care. Even if they have policy differences, a lot of Tea Partiers currently in office have jumped onto the Trump bandwagon. Jeff Flake has been the exception as he was someone who was pretty critical of Trump. In Flake's case, he called Trump out before he got elected and Trump returned the favour by campaigning for basically every one of Flake's primary opponents before Flake announced he wasn't going to run for reelection. Even though Flake was already unpopular in Arizona, stuff like that probably was a pretty big early sign that Tea Partiers were going to have to fall in line. PBS had a Frontline episode about Trump's first 100 days and it mainly focused on his tax legislation. The amount of Republican politicians, including Paul Ryan, that claimed they were going to be able to curtail Trump's worst inclinations was, now in retrospect, completely absurd. Trump really has done an amazing job of getting his own party in line. I don't know if anyone else can capture that same ruthlessness and cult of personality enough to hold such influence.

Do you think that even if Trump's policies don't match completely with the Tea Party, perhaps Trump latched on to public sentiment that the Tea Party movement exposed?

People also love Trump because they think he has charisma, they think he talks their language and they think he is funny. He has an "outsider" persona that people love and they are drawn to him because they think he is "authentic". Even if his supporters are seen as non-thinking cultists, creating that cult is not easy.

So, one example I think is interesting is Arizona. Trump lost the state, in part, because he picked a fight with someone as popular in Arizona as John McCain, basically continued to hurl insults after McCain was dead, and started a war with McCain's widow. Trump failed to win a state that has voted pretty solidly Republic in presidential elections for 20 years. Democrats are celebrating this as the "Revenge" of John/Cindy McCain. All cheers. However, Trump still got more votes in Arizona than any other Republican nominee for President and only lost by 20,000 votes. So, if someone similar to Trump can come around, say similar things, but not constantly pick fights with dead, popular war heroes, that person might win back Arizona. But, what caused 1.6 million people from Arizona to continue to support him despite his comments and can a potential Trump-lite presidential candidate continue to appeal and motivate that type of (disturbing) populist movement? Is the ground swell of support permanent without the rhetoric or does the hateful rhetoric create the groundswell of support? Would a more polished politician, who whose every instinct would be to avoid picking fights with war veterans and widows, still hold onto the same mass appeal?

However, and nothing against Biden, but Joe Biden was a pretty uninspired candidate. But he too got more votes in Arizona then any other Democratic nominee, and (I think), more votes nationwide than any other nominee. But Trump also received more vote than any other Republican candidate for president. So, another issue is whether an individual can build on that Trump movement while not creating a Democrat reaction. But part of Trump's appeal is this idea of "owning the Libs" and saying such offensive and outlandish things that it creates both a positive response and a negative reaction.
Or maybe people love trump because for once in their lifetime they got a racist bigot president that they can rally behind.

Replace trump with Kentucky Sam who promises to send the mexican back and continue the wall you'll still probably get the same 70M
 

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Or maybe people love trump because for once in their lifetime they got a racist bigot president that they can rally behind.

Replace trump with Kentucky Sam who promises to send the mexican back and continue the wall you'll still probably get the same 70M
That's definitely a big part of it. It wasn't that long ago that George Wallace received 40 something electoral votes running on a segregationist platform. So there is that.

But, something that is interesting is that Trump has seemed, though race is messy and much of the data is new, to have improved his share of the vote with ethnic minorities from 2016 to 2020, especially with younger black men. He also seemed to improve his numbers with Hispanic voters. In 2016, Trump already did better than Romney did with black and Hispanic voters and in 2020 it looks like he improved on those numbers.
 

Sky1981

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That's definitely a big part of it. It wasn't that long ago that George Wallace received 40 something electoral votes running on a segregationist platform. So there is that.

But, something that is interesting is that Trump has seemed, though race is messy and much of the data is new, to have improved his share of the vote with ethnic minorities from 2016 to 2020, especially with younger black men. He also seemed to improve his numbers with Hispanic voters. In 2016, Trump already did better than Romney did with black and Hispanic voters and in 2020 it looks like he improved on those numbers.
Maybe minorities too don't want immigration and mexican coming? For them immigrant is the biggest thread to their livelihood (a.k.a jobs)

Man are selfish, if I'm a minorities I won't give a damn about other minorities wanna enjoy the american dream if it means more competition for my already scarce job. Sorry if sounds unethical, but we all vote for something other than ideology most of the times. When everything else is equal and I've had my stomach filled and roof on my head then I'll start to see on what others have to offer

Sometimes their reasoning is very pragmatist:
1. Trump perceived as delivering jobs
2. Trump probably delivers in red state, so if you're in the red state you're probably better off with President Trump (shrug... I don't know)
3. Maybe their field of work benefits from Trump's policy
4. Maybe ICE actually raided some illegal worker in their area that opens up job for them
5. Maybe their economy / neighborhood got hit by BLM riots
6. Maybe they're sick and tired of being called "stupid and deplorables"
7. Or maybe years and years of being indoctrinated by their environment made them believe something else? It's one thing looking at the American mess from the outside, it's another when you're right in the middle of a red state surrounded by people who supported Trump.