Ronaldo chance, Sancho chance, Sancho goal, Maguire chance were all really big chances. The finishing is just bad.Feels generous, but we should had the game won midway through the first half.
It wasn't really. It might have been in the midfield area and in transition, but in terms of actual clear chances we were a lot better.Even Sancho's goal, a tap in, ended up going in off deflection....wtf?
But that Xg may be right but it was a way closer game than that.
So we should have scored one more, and were unlucky to concede 1.Tweet
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surely it turns at some point
The second half was close, but that game should've been over in the first halfEven Sancho's goal, a tap in, ended up going in off deflection....wtf?
But that Xg may be right but it was a way closer game than that.
That will never happen. Manchester United are a lot of things, but they will never, ever be cool.Hípster manager Rangnick winning the xG.
How long until we are the pseudo-football experts team of choice?
And we didn't ?That Southampton Xg is only that low because they made some truly pathetic decisions in transition - we didn’t have control of that game at all after 25 minutes. We should have been out of sight by then though.
First half yes. Not really second half which was mainly Bruno trying hero balls from deep.They were in control outside of some set pieces - they were continually transitioning on us and should have scored more.And we didn't ?
And we should have also.First half yes. Not really second half which was mainly Bruno trying hero balls from deep.They were in control outside of some set pieces - they were continually transitioning on us and should have scored more.
A 1.8 xG difference is very good. City have the best xG diff/90 in the league, at 1.53 for example.So we should have scored one more, and were unlucky to concede 1.
Nothing needs to turn, in a single game scenario, that exact XG spread will result in 1-1’s more often than 2-0.
Just round the number. 0.7 -> 1 while 2.5 -> 3. So we should have score 3 and conceded 1.So we should have scored one more, and were unlucky to concede 1.
Nothing needs to turn, in a single game scenario, that exact XG spread will result in 1-1’s more often than 2-0.
It wasn't really. It might have been in the midfield area and in transition, but in terms of actual clear chances we were a lot better.
I missed the first 20 mins though, maybe why I don't feel the same way as you.The second half was close, but that game should've been over in the first half
That Southampton Xg is only that low because they made some truly pathetic decisions in transition - we didn’t have control of that game at all after 25 minutes. We should have been out of sight by then though.
Same applies the other way though. Our xG could've been a lot higher if we'd made better decisions in attacking positions.I missed the first 20 mins though, maybe why I don't feel the same way as you.
But even saying that I agree with below more.
Interesting how different viewpoints can be. I feel this is the lowest since Fergie retired, cuz of how bad the 2nd half was. But you are more optimistic based off first half. Hopefully I am wrong and you are right.In the same way I was worried about xG regressing to the mean under Solskjaer when we were overperforming, I'm very optimistic that we're close to clicking under Rangnick. The underlying stats show that we're underperforming offensively and it always evens out at some point. We're still at a point where we're tiring in the second half, probably due to how low down we were for sprints per game under Ole, but as our conditioning improves the way we perform in the second half will improve too.
There's some very encouraging signs here, despite what the media might have you believe. It's better to be in a position that we're squandering chances rather than not creating them in the first place.
Yeah maybe it's me being glass half empty about us while thinking Southampton was half full...Same applies the other way though. Our xG could've been a lot higher if we'd made better decisions in attacking positions.
What makes you think that? Southhampton looked like the hometeam today, had way more sophisticated passing moves and were 10 times more comfortable on the ball than we were. Feck they played a high line, the one thing we are really good with, because it gives us room to work with. That is why ended up with chances and the goal.In the same way I was worried about xG regressing to the mean under Solskjaer when we were overperforming, I'm very optimistic that we're close to clicking under Rangnick. The underlying stats show that we're underperforming offensively and it always evens out at some point. We're still at a point where we're tiring in the second half, probably due to how low down we were for sprints per game under Ole, but as our conditioning improves the way we perform in the second half will improve too.
There's some very encouraging signs here, despite what the media might have you believe. It's better to be in a position that we're squandering chances rather than not creating them in the first place.
His talk is starting to make me nervous. I am all up for him and today, the squad options were dire but wtf... he can't be fine with todays game, can he? Also what was it with Pogba and Bruno as the double pivot at the end? What was he thinking?Tweet
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Right. I think they will.The results should start to follow, right? Right?!
"We were struggling to defend against them and exactly that happened in transition when they scored their goal. In the last 20 minutes, we had enough opportunities, big chances to score again. The expected-goals ratio was in our favour clearly but, in the end, we didn’t get the result we wanted to.”He didn't really quote xG stats did he?
You can feel both things at once. These bad results are killing our season, meaning that we are going to struggle to meet minimum expectations in the league and we are out of both cups early. It is natural to feel really low because of that. However, our recent performances do suggest that we should get better results over the rest of the season than those we have gotten so far.Interesting how different viewpoints can be. I feel this is the lowest since Fergie retired, cuz of how bad the 2nd half was. But you are more optimistic based off first half. Hopefully I am wrong and you are right.
What's so bad about quoting xG stats?He didn't really quote xG stats did he?
Confirms the eye test that we are playing ‘better’ with the ball. Even the goals against can be kept out by going 2-0 or 3-0 up in the first half. Instead of playing the game second half looking for a second you can play cautiously and make sure you don’t concede.The results should start to follow, right? Right?!
Ole last season would have lucked his way to three 1 nil wins without creating half as many chances.Confirms the eye test that we are playing ‘better’ with the ball. Even the goals against can be kept out by going 2-0 or 3-0 up in the first half. Instead of playing the game second half looking for a second you can play cautiously and make sure you don’t concede.
It definitely feels like we get punished for very mistake right now. Whereas a few weeks ago we were riding our luck.
I mean it’s better than not winning the xG isn’t it? If we went back and assessed Fergies teams and it showed we consistently won the xG battle would that make Fergie be viewed differently?Hípster manager Rangnick winning the xG.
How long until we are the pseudo-football experts team of choice?
As my mum always says; it's better to be lucky than clever.Ole last season would have lucked his way to three 1 nil wins without creating half as many chances.
xG generally correlates with reality in the longer term, but it falls down in some of the cases you mentioned.What xg dosen't really account for is the actual goals I find.
True you should've scored early on with Ronaldo and Sancho........but then Sancho did score and you barely threatened afterwards for large portions due to dropping off intensity and Southampton not leaving as much space at the back.
No idea just watching that on MOTD how Saints xg is deemed way lower.....they scored a one on one, Adams would've had a relatively easy tap in early on had he not fallen over so similar to Ronaldo chance and Borja had a good one on one chance in second but messed up the finish. Armstrong shot from edge of box more debatable but should've been hitting the target with space he was in. So different aswell in they kept creating after scoring aswell.
For a mid table team away to apparent top 6 team I'D say that's pretty good going. I presume their XG at Spurs midweek was under 1 aswell?
You should be careful about interpreting xG this way. In this match, 3 goals was more likely than 2 goals, or 4 goals, or 1 goal. But "anything other than 3 goals" was more likely than "3 goals." So in that sense you should not "have scored 3."Just round the number. 0.7 -> 1 while 2.5 -> 3. So we should have score 3 and conceded 1.