Feels generous, but we should had the game won midway through the first half.
xG under Ralf
- Thread starter Pogue Mahone
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Ronaldo chance, Sancho chance, Sancho goal, Maguire chance were all really big chances. The finishing is just bad.
Even Sancho's goal, a tap in, ended up going in off deflection....wtf?
But that Xg may be right but it was a way closer game than that.
But that Xg may be right but it was a way closer game than that.
It wasn't really. It might have been in the midfield area and in transition, but in terms of actual clear chances we were a lot better.
So we should have scored one more, and were unlucky to concede 1.
Nothing needs to turn, in a single game scenario, that exact XG spread will result in 1-1’s more often than 2-0.
The second half was close, but that game should've been over in the first half
Interesting stats.
The results should start to follow, right? Right?!
In the same way I was worried about xG regressing to the mean under Solskjaer when we were overperforming, I'm very optimistic that we're close to clicking under Rangnick. The underlying stats show that we're underperforming offensively and it always evens out at some point. We're still at a point where we're tiring in the second half, probably due to how low down we were for sprints per game under Ole, but as our conditioning improves the way we perform in the second half will improve too.
There's some very encouraging signs here, despite what the media might have you believe. It's better to be in a position that we're squandering chances rather than not creating them in the first place.
There's some very encouraging signs here, despite what the media might have you believe. It's better to be in a position that we're squandering chances rather than not creating them in the first place.
That Southampton Xg is only that low because they made some truly pathetic decisions in transition - we didn’t have control of that game at all after 25 minutes. We should have been out of sight by then though.
Hípster manager Rangnick winning the xG.
How long until we are the pseudo-football experts team of choice?
How long until we are the pseudo-football experts team of choice?
That will never happen. Manchester United are a lot of things, but they will never, ever be cool.Hípster manager Rangnick winning the xG.
How long until we are the pseudo-football experts team of choice?
I think if we start scoring we will start to gain more confidence, Last few games we have been better and unfortunately if you miss chances you can get punished up the other end. Also some shocking refereeing displays hasn't helped. Also this team hasn't reached optimal fitness levels which is worrying looking gassed by half time.
And we didn't ?
First half yes. Not really second half which was mainly Bruno trying hero balls from deep.They were in control outside of some set pieces - they were continually transitioning on us and should have scored more.And we didn't ?
And we should have also.
A 1.8 xG difference is very good. City have the best xG diff/90 in the league, at 1.53 for example.
Just round the number. 0.7 -> 1 while 2.5 -> 3. So we should have score 3 and conceded 1.
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sorry that Xg is a bit off, the last hour of the game I saw, Saints had a couple of gilt edged chances (broja and armstrong) and several more opportunities where they were a simple pass of being through on goal. they looked more dangerous than we did.
I missed the first 20 mins though, maybe why I don't feel the same way as you.
But even saying that I agree with below more.
Same applies the other way though. Our xG could've been a lot higher if we'd made better decisions in attacking positions.
Interesting how different viewpoints can be. I feel this is the lowest since Fergie retired, cuz of how bad the 2nd half was. But you are more optimistic based off first half. Hopefully I am wrong and you are right.
Yeah maybe it's me being glass half empty about us while thinking Southampton was half full...
What makes you think that? Southhampton looked like the hometeam today, had way more sophisticated passing moves and were 10 times more comfortable on the ball than we were. Feck they played a high line, the one thing we are really good with, because it gives us room to work with. That is why ended up with chances and the goal.
His talk is starting to make me nervous. I am all up for him and today, the squad options were dire but wtf... he can't be fine with todays game, can he? Also what was it with Pogba and Bruno as the double pivot at the end? What was he thinking?
He didn't really quote xG stats did he?
Right. I think they will.
"We were struggling to defend against them and exactly that happened in transition when they scored their goal. In the last 20 minutes, we had enough opportunities, big chances to score again. The expected-goals ratio was in our favour clearly but, in the end, we didn’t get the result we wanted to.”
Haven't watched any post match video conferences, but that's something he mentioned and the club app posted it.
You can feel both things at once. These bad results are killing our season, meaning that we are going to struggle to meet minimum expectations in the league and we are out of both cups early. It is natural to feel really low because of that. However, our recent performances do suggest that we should get better results over the rest of the season than those we have gotten so far.
What's so bad about quoting xG stats?
Confirms the eye test that we are playing ‘better’ with the ball. Even the goals against can be kept out by going 2-0 or 3-0 up in the first half. Instead of playing the game second half looking for a second you can play cautiously and make sure you don’t concede.
It definitely feels like we get punished for very mistake right now. Whereas a few weeks ago we were riding our luck.
Ole last season would have lucked his way to three 1 nil wins without creating half as many chances.
I mean it’s better than not winning the xG isn’t it? If we went back and assessed Fergies teams and it showed we consistently won the xG battle would that make Fergie be viewed differently?Hípster manager Rangnick winning the xG.
How long until we are the pseudo-football experts team of choice?
What xg dosen't really account for is the actual goals I find.
True you should've scored early on with Ronaldo and Sancho........but then Sancho did score and you barely threatened afterwards for large portions due to dropping off intensity and Southampton not leaving as much space at the back.
No idea just watching that on MOTD how Saints xg is deemed way lower.....they scored a one on one, Adams would've had a relatively easy tap in early on had he not fallen over so similar to Ronaldo chance and Borja had a good one on one chance in second but messed up the finish. Armstrong shot from edge of box more debatable but should've been hitting the target with space he was in. So different aswell in they kept creating after scoring aswell.
For a mid table team away to apparent top 6 team I'D say that's pretty good going. I presume their XG at Spurs midweek was under 1 aswell?
True you should've scored early on with Ronaldo and Sancho........but then Sancho did score and you barely threatened afterwards for large portions due to dropping off intensity and Southampton not leaving as much space at the back.
No idea just watching that on MOTD how Saints xg is deemed way lower.....they scored a one on one, Adams would've had a relatively easy tap in early on had he not fallen over so similar to Ronaldo chance and Borja had a good one on one chance in second but messed up the finish. Armstrong shot from edge of box more debatable but should've been hitting the target with space he was in. So different aswell in they kept creating after scoring aswell.
For a mid table team away to apparent top 6 team I'D say that's pretty good going. I presume their XG at Spurs midweek was under 1 aswell?
We did not deserve to win.
Sure we could have kept a clean sheet given how little we gave away, but we are just poor when it matters.
Ronaldo should score, but that was early in the game. When it did matter we did not create enough.
Sure we could have kept a clean sheet given how little we gave away, but we are just poor when it matters.
Ronaldo should score, but that was early in the game. When it did matter we did not create enough.
As my mum always says; it's better to be lucky than clever.
Stats do seem weird, didn't feel like we deserved to win the game at all, and Southampton had just as good, if not better chances.
xG generally correlates with reality in the longer term, but it falls down in some of the cases you mentioned.
Southampton’s goal came from a somewhat tight angle (reflected in the fact that it required a superb finish to beat de Gea). The fact that it was a one-on-one isn’t accounted for. It’s purely based on the position the shot was taken from.
Similarly, if you would have had a simple tap-in but you slip at the vital moment… that adds zero xG. Only shots are counted. An spectator is capable of seeing that for what it is - a great chance to score. But once again, xG is purely about the number and position of shots taken so it can’t account for this.
With a large enough sample size this evens out, but the xG score may not match the actual chances created in any individual match.
You should be careful about interpreting xG this way. In this match, 3 goals was more likely than 2 goals, or 4 goals, or 1 goal. But "anything other than 3 goals" was more likely than "3 goals." So in that sense you should not "have scored 3."
Unless goalscoring opportunities have a very high chance of being converted, outcomes are usually spread a bit more evenly.
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