Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Revan

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Why do power-hungry twats always have to ruin it for the rest of us?
Because people in power tend to be power-hungry twats? Why would anyone want to be leader of a large country, having an insanely stressful job if they were not power-hungry twats to begin with.
 

Smores

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This reads almost like a Trump tweet.

And so humble. Sad thing is they believe their own nationalist self-congratulations.

The idea that Putin knows the US will know every "detail" (which isn't detail but a list of possibilities) but was shocked that they were discussed in the media is laughable. Even based on history alone analysts would have been telling the world these things anyway.

It's as likely they're being fed information purposefully.
 

TMDaines

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So the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics have asked for Russia's recognition. This could be the tinder that lights the powder keg, because they only control partial amounts of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts that they claim. Russia recognising them would be Russia recognising Ukrainian territory as belonging to the Donestk and Luhansk People's Republics and would put us even closer to war.


 

Water Melon

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So the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics have asked for Russia's recognition. This could be the tinder that lights the powder keg, because they only control partial amounts of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts that they claim. Russia recognising them would be Russia recognising Ukrainian territory as belonging to the Donestk and Luhansk People's Republics and would put us even closer to war.


The Ukraininan government are smart enough to refrain from anything that would spark a war. All these stupid pretext videos and false flags are making the Russian government look less and less trustworthy. Time is on Ukraine's side. Just need to stay cool-headed. I am sure US and other NATO countries are providing pretty accurate intelligence data to help Ukraine maneuvre out of the war while bringing more sanctions upon agressor government.
 

TMDaines

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The Ukraininan government are smart enough to refrain from anything that would spark a war. All these stupid pretext videos and false flags are making the Russian government look less and less trustworthy. Time is on Ukraine's side. Just need to stay cool-headed. I am sure US and other NATO countries are providing pretty accurate intelligence data to help Ukraine maneuvre out of the war while bringing more sanctions upon agressor government.
Sure, but I was looking from the perspective of a Donetsk/Luhansk/Russia casus belli to "liberate" lands.
 

Water Melon

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Sure, but I was looking from the perspective of a Donetsk/Luhansk/Russia casus belli to "liberate" lands.
Sure mate. Agree with you. I quite like how cool headed the Ukraninan government is. Here is hoping that NATO states and EU as a whole will support thm to the maxmum of their abilities. Russian Federation under Putin, however, are pushing themselves towards isolation.
 

TMDaines

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Sure mate. Agree with you. I quite like how cool headed the Ukraninan government is. Here is hoping that NATO states and EU as a whole will support thm to the maxmum of their abilities. Russian Federation under Putin, however, are pushing themselves towards isolation.
I don't know. I was a lot more optimistic about four or five days OK. I now think this may get a lot worse before it gets a lot better, and I have severe doubts about the ability of the West to make the tough decisions, which includes some self-harm, to properly damage Putin. There's too much dirty Russian money being laundered by too many Western politicians and policy makers. The UK has been atrocious in this regard.
 

Simbo

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Totally and utterly bonkers.


livestream here if anyone speaks russian:
 

Simbo

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Who are we to discount US intel, but is anyone buying this?

Its highly charged rhetoric but I have enough intel to suggest that just from watching the osint people do their thing on twitter and having a basic knowledge of Putin's Russia, I don't need to "buy" US intelligence.

If he pulls the trigger it'll be a bloodbath.
 

harms

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Am I wrong in thinking that in 2008 Georgia actually initiated the conflict? I haven't researched it much myself but a few sources that I generally trust seemed to believe that version — even though it's counter-intuitive for me not to blame Russia/Putin (technically Medvedev) by default.
 

VorZakone

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Decent thread. I buy the notion that Putin privately doesn't want a big military conflict but so far the West isn't budging.

 

Simbo

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Am I wrong in thinking that in 2008 Georgia actually initiated the conflict? I haven't researched it much myself but a few sources that I generally trust seemed to believe that version — even though it's counter-intuitive for me not to blame Russia/Putin (technically Medvedev) by default.
Its more complicated than that but my understanding is that they basically "took the bait".
 

harms

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Hmm, it looks like they're going to actually decide on the official recognition on DNR & LNR live (well, to reenact it).
 

JPRouve

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Am I wrong in thinking that in 2008 Georgia actually initiated the conflict? I haven't researched it much myself but a few sources that I generally trust seemed to believe that version — even though it's counter-intuitive for me not to blame Russia/Putin (technically Medvedev) by default.
According to the EU, Saakashvili started it. So yes.
 

harms

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Its more complicated than that but my understanding is that they basically "took the bait".
Yeah, it's obviously more complicated than the simple "who attacked first", Russia had been ready and the tensions were running high — but Georgia did move first (stupidly so), unlike Ukraine that clearly does everything not to give Russia the excuse (although it doesn't stop Russia from fabricating those false flag stuff).
 

TMDaines

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Looks odds on now that recognition is imminent from Russia... handed out Russian citizenship, so now pretext to move to protect Russian citizens.
 

harms

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Looks odds on now that recognition is imminent from Russia... handed out Russian citizenship, so now pretext to move to protect Russian citizens.
Yeah, Putin "haven't discussed this with anyone before that" and now they have everyone doing speeches as to why Putin should recognise the republics. I doubt that Putin will do a M. Night Shyamalan-esque twist at the end.
 

the hea

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Did the DNR & LNR also ask for military help from Russia earlier today? So if Russia recognizes them will that also mean that they will officially move in troops to help them?
 

2cents

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Am I wrong in thinking that in 2008 Georgia actually initiated the conflict? I haven't researched it much myself but a few sources that I generally trust seemed to believe that version — even though it's counter-intuitive for me not to blame Russia/Putin (technically Medvedev) by default.
Pretty much every credible source ultimately blamed Saakashvili, who seemed to believe he’d have the West’s backing if he stood up to Moscow and tried to re-take South Ossetia. There had been months of tit-for-tat escalations and provocations leading up to it, but Tbilisi initiated things in August, and Moscow was ready and waiting.
 

harms

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After making a speech on whenever Russia should or shouldn't recognise DNR & LNR Mishustin actually forgot to say that he supports the decision after making a well-rehearsed speech on how Russia's economy is ready for the upcoming sanctions. Putin had to ask him when he was already going to sit back down. Farcical.
 

Paxi

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Am I wrong in thinking that in 2008 Georgia actually initiated the conflict? I haven't researched it much myself but a few sources that I generally trust seemed to believe that version — even though it's counter-intuitive for me not to blame Russia/Putin (technically Medvedev) by default.
I thought the Georgians attacks an Ossetian village or something , but could be wrong.
 

harms

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Nah, he worded it differently (I'm pretty sure North Korea already has them) — it was more about the world caring more about Iran's and North Korea's nuclear problem while blood-thirsty Ukrainian regime develops their own and no one bats an eye. Something like this, I wasn't listening closely and certainly haven't been taking notes.
 

GDaly95

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Is it likely then that the recognition of DNR & LNR by Russia as independent states will be as far as this goes? Is this what it was all building up to?