Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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If the reports are true r.e. Belarus that's surely the end of all this nonsense for Putin. One revolution in the Ukraine caused this war. Surely they won't go in to Belarussia as well.if they do the same thing and overthrow that idiot Lukashenko.
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Lukashenko?
I'm very sceptical, from a quick google search it seems like the original source is some Ukrainian journalist & only Ukrainian & Polish press had forwarded it.
Not possible at all.
It's hard to fully understand what you're saying here (do you mean Lukashenko & not Lavrov?), but nothing that's been reported about Belarus' so far changes anything about this situation.
Don't think dictators like Putin tend to just ride off quietly into the night. They tend to either die violently or die whilst in power. Sometimes they get exiled I guess but where would he go? Could you imagine him ever going?
Yes but she can be proven wrong with a decent grasp of history because it's all a question of timescale if nothing else. The Tsars were deposed, the USSR fell. Putin and his regime will end too. It's just unfortunate that each chapter of Russian history seems to end with the phrase "and then it got worse".
A good summation on the oligarchs by the way, people in the West really don't seem to understand their position in this regime (I blame the usage of the same term that was used in regards to Berezovsky, Khodorkivsky & the likes). Generally I agree with her line of thinking, sadly. The only way for this to change is the rapid growth of a protest movement from the ground up (which will force the elites to act in order to try & preserve the system) and I'm not sure if that's happening any time soon.
No, I couldn't imagine him going by his own choice, even if pressure is applied. The only way to get rid of him, is by force, for sure. But that does not necessarily mean force that kills someone.
Historically speaking, you're right with your assumption of dictators not just riding off quietly into the night. However, Putin is a special case and a coup against him, pushed by his own high ranked military commanders and then him getting trialed in Den Haag, getting punished for his actions, wouldn't really be my idea of someone riding off quietly into the night. It's most likely not going to happen, but it would be the ideal outcome imo.
Speaking of how Russians perceive those things. This is the numbers from WCIOM, which is a government-owned Russian sociological institution, so the important thing here are not the absolute numbers (they are hardly trustworthy), but the main trends in perception of this war by different groups of people, which are represented with relative accuracy.
1. The red line is those who do not support the "military operation", the black line is those who had struggled to answer
2. The scale on the left is the % of respondents
3. The scale on the bottom is the age of respondents
You can see that the graph takes a drastic turn down at mid 30's/40's.
This is a more complicated graph, but I'll try to explain it.
The main question is: Do you watch TV daily? Those in the column "ДА" do, those in the column "НЕТ" don't.
The four bars in the left are different age gaps — from 18 to 30 on the left to 60+ on the right.
Red colour in those bars represents those who are against the war, the right one — those who support it, the grey one are those who don't have an opinion on the matter.
You can see that in each gap the "НЕТ" column has a lot more red in it, which is more than understandable — those who don't watch TV would be less influenced by Russian propaganda.
Again, the important thing are the trends of how those groups are splitting in comparison to each other — for example younger people support the war less for multiple reasons, and not the actual absolute numbers in %'s as those are going to be significantly altered by the government-owned sociological institution that conducted the study.
1. The red line is those who do not support the "military operation", the black line is those who had struggled to answer
2. The scale on the left is the % of respondents
3. The scale on the bottom is the age of respondents
You can see that the graph takes a drastic turn down at mid 30's/40's.
This is a more complicated graph, but I'll try to explain it.
The main question is: Do you watch TV daily? Those in the column "ДА" do, those in the column "НЕТ" don't.
The four bars in the left are different age gaps — from 18 to 30 on the left to 60+ on the right.
Red colour in those bars represents those who are against the war, the right one — those who support it, the grey one are those who don't have an opinion on the matter.
You can see that in each gap the "НЕТ" column has a lot more red in it, which is more than understandable — those who don't watch TV would be less influenced by Russian propaganda.
Again, the important thing are the trends of how those groups are splitting in comparison to each other — for example younger people support the war less for multiple reasons, and not the actual absolute numbers in %'s as those are going to be significantly altered by the government-owned sociological institution that conducted the study.
Thanks @harms, you're doing a great job in here. Stay safe!Speaking of how Russians perceive those things. This is the numbers from WCIOM, which is a government-owned Russian sociological institution, so the important thing here are not the absolute numbers (they are hardly trustworthy), but the main trends in perception of this war by different groups of people, which are represented with relative accuracy.
1. The red line is those who do not support the "military operation", the black line is those who had struggled to answer
2. The scale on the left is the % of respondents
3. The scale on the bottom is the age of respondents
You can see that the graph takes a drastic turn down at mid 30's/40's.
This is a more complicated graph, but I'll try to explain it.
The main question is: Do you watch TV daily? Those in the column "ДА" do, those in the column "НЕТ" don't.
The four bars in the left are different age gaps — from 18 to 30 on the left to 60+ on the right.
Red colour in those bars represents those who are against the war, the right one — those who support it, the grey one are those who don't have an opinion on the matter.
You can see that in each gap the "НЕТ" column has a lot more red in it, which is more than understandable — those who don't watch TV would be less influenced by Russian propaganda.
Again, the important thing are the trends of how those groups are splitting in comparison to each other — for example younger people support the war less for multiple reasons, and not the actual absolute numbers in %'s as those are going to be significantly altered by the government-owned sociological institution that conducted the study.
More than 1000 people were arrested just today for participating in anti-war protests in Russia and the day has just started (the actual number is most likely much higher but those are the cases that's already been confirmed).
edit: while I was typing it the number of confirmed arrests had risen from 600+ to 1015+
A little of the old ultra-violence:
edit: while I was typing it the number of confirmed arrests had risen from 600+ to 1015+
A little of the old ultra-violence:
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This is madness. Is Putin trying to put the genie back into the bottle? The only way this is sustainable is to go North Korea and into some hermit kingdom. Everyone's got a phone/camera.
Does he want to jail millions?
he'll do whatever he deems necessary to follow through with this plans and considering he's letting people get killed by the thousands, I don't think he really cares or even thinks for a minute about jailing thousands
He will land up dying like Gaddafi.
Just read up as I didn't know what happened to him exactly and it seems like we don't really know for sure. But of all the possibilities that caused Gaddafi's death, I highly doubt Putin's death will be close to that. Also I hope he won't be publicly displayed like an animal trophy for everyone to enjoy some voyeurism.
If the main thing the sanctions will do according to her is defund the military and police well that's seems like it will be doing a very great thing
It is as far as Putin's propaganda is concerned, it is 'his truth'.. he uses the 'closeness' between NATO and the Ukraine government as his excuse to justify his special operation, to the Russian people...only the rest of the world refers to it as an invasion of a sovereign country.
This is what I dont get about these dictators. They are dumb as fk. The West tried this dictatorship and oligarchs sht - we just called it Kings, Queens, colonialism, elites, billionaires etc. We already figured it all out years ago. No point keeping slaves just pretend they are free and give them minimum wage. No point colonizing a country just loan them a sht load of cash they cant repay, move in your companies to build their infrastructure at ridiculous rates, move in your mining companies and plunder their natural resources, affect their politics either by straight out bribery or infiltrating politicians etc, make them westernized by sending them our movies and food etc. This whole dictatorship is so old school. They didnt need to bomb the sht out of Ukraine. They just needed to offer a better deal than the West for their resources.
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Watching live footage from Prezmysl, I’m so disgusted by the Home Office’s policies relating to refugees. We have friends who have no real connections to go anywhere else in continental Europe and we cannot invite them here. I hope the Opposition real start to tear into the Government next week over this.
What an absolute prick.
China is a step ahead of Russia with this. Issue with the last part is that Russia is unable to offer a better deal than the West and likely don’t want 3m Russian speakers on their direct border being exposed to supposed Western ideals (higher wages and democratic elections relative to the Russian system). Russia is inherently unequal and that suits the current power structure massively. Just massively unsustainable in the long term.
Absolutely NO chance of either of these happening! He has vast majority backing.
If he goes it’ll be with him stepping down on some faux moral front and then being protected in Russia for the rest of his life.
That was my first thought too. Was it just him that did that or did other Russian competitors also do it? If they all did it then it'll be forced from the top. If only he did it then clearly its due to him and his coaches. Hard to really know given it can be used a propaganda stunt whether this was his idea or being forced to do it. If he says no, what happens to his family and career?
I read about him not doing it voluntarily but russian officials that equip the national team did this beforehand.
It is time for the Russian people living in Russia to step up. Sure, the repercussions are scary, but that is still nothing compared to what the Ukrainians are going through. What kind of society do you want to live in? Get out and fight for it.
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Is this not a bad thing for the west in the long run?
The second part shows how far you are from understanding the reality of Russian politics. And the first one is certainly not as clear cut as you seem to suggest.
that's a lot easier said than done and I understand it fully. The situation for the russian people needs to worsen a lot more for them to do anything meaningful in that regard
Everyone keeps talking about nuclear Armageddon like china is passively going to watch the end of the world...
If there is a nuclear Armageddon, what can China do?
Man up Russians!