Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

NicolaSacco

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Cheimoon said:
The US Secretary of Defense called for a ceasefire just last week as well. Just to give some context before it's all exclusively on the usual suspects again (plus Italy this time).

(As @NotThatSoph has been pointing out before.)
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I think there are valid criticisms of Germany for their lack of support relative to their wealth and the rest of the west’s contributions, but I don’t particularly think calling for a ceasefire should be included in that criticism.
 

Cheimoon

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NicolaSacco said:
I think there are valid criticisms of Germany for their lack of support relative to their wealth and the rest of the west’s contributions, but I don’t particularly think calling for a ceasefire should be included in that criticism.
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The former, definitely. Although it could be said that Germany had to come from very far given their general appeasement policy towards Russia since the 60s or so. You could therefore say that they've changed their thinking more than anyone else during this war - even if they're still behind and have further steps to take.

For the ceasefire, I have no idea; just that, if the proposal is criticized, that should include the US as well, not just the countries posters don't like.
 

NotThatSoph

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frostbite said:
Scholz, Macron, Draghi.

"These calls are idiotic and damaging..."


https://www.politico.eu/article/zelenskyy-macron-asked-ukraine-concession-help-putin-save-face/

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/italys-draghi-calls-urgent-ceasefire-ukraine-2022-05-19/

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...erating-frances-macron-over-putin-2022-04-04/


<<"One should not negotiate with criminals, one should fight them...Nobody negotiated with Hitler. Would you negotiate with Hitler, Stalin, Pol Pot?" he added.>>
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Ok, so this is why I asked.

You didn't just talk about ceasefires, you were talking about ceasefires and land consessions. Scholz and Draghi are not talking about land, while Macron as far as I know denies it as well.

If you meant to just talk about ceasefires, but then added stuff about land for some added effect, then your comment wouldn't make any sense because not only are you criticising these politicians, you contrast their behaviour with those from the UK and US. You know full well, however, than we can find ceasefire talk from here as well.
 

frostbite

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NotThatSoph said:
Ok, so this is why I asked.

You didn't just talk about ceasefires, you were talking about ceasefires and land consessions. Scholz and Draghi are not talking about land, while Macron as far as I know denies it as well.

If you meant to just talk about ceasefires, but then added stuff about land for some added effect, then your comment wouldn't make any sense because not only are you criticising these politicians, you contrast their behaviour with those from the UK and US. You know full well, however, than we can find ceasefire talk from here as well.
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Ceasefire at this point is the same thing as land concession. Do you think that Russians will just leave?
 

frostbite

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NotThatSoph said:
Alright, then you should amend your comment and condemn the Americans.
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The Americans just voted for $40 billion for Ukraine. I will wait for the EU to vote for $40 billion for Ukraine, and then I will criticize the US for doing too little to help the Ukrainians.
 

Raoul

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frostbite said:
Scholz, Macron, Draghi.

"These calls are idiotic and damaging..."


https://www.politico.eu/article/zelenskyy-macron-asked-ukraine-concession-help-putin-save-face/

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/italys-draghi-calls-urgent-ceasefire-ukraine-2022-05-19/

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...erating-frances-macron-over-putin-2022-04-04/


<<"One should not negotiate with criminals, one should fight them...Nobody negotiated with Hitler. Would you negotiate with Hitler, Stalin, Pol Pot?" he added.>>
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Kasparov has been spot on about Putin from the beginning. Dictators only understand the language of power and coercion, and frequently use diplomacy as a means to flog the facade they are interested in negotiating, while continuing to agitate for war behind the scenes (Putin in particular, is a master of this). I don't blame some of the European leaders for taking weak positions on this since they each have their own constituents, many of which are delusional peace at all costs types who favor appeasement over any conflict, which undermines their leaders from taking tougher positions.
 
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frostbite

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Raoul said:
Kasperov has been spot on about Putin since the beginning. Dictators only understand the language of power and coersion, and frequently use diplomacy as a means to flog the facade they are interested in negotiating, while continuing to agitate for war behind the scenes (Putin in particular, is a master of this). I don't blame some of the European leaders for taking weak positions on this since they each have their own constituents, many of which are delusional peace at all costs types who favor appeasement over any conflict, which undermines their leaders from taking tougher positions.
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Yes, you are right. However, there is a difference between talking and doing. The main problem is not that Germany is speaking softly, the problem is that they are doing too little AND they are speaking too softly.

They could be doing the classic "speak softly and carry a big stick". Unfortunately, Scholz's version is "speak softly and be a useless moron".

(Edit: By the way, I happened to read Kasparov's book last year. He published the book in 2015 and he practically predicted everything we see today. Winter is coming. )
 
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NotThatSoph

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frostbite said:
Perhaps you missed the big stick part. But I am sure the Russians didn't.
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Maybe. This big stick you're talking about, is that what makes it acceptable for the Americans to "wheel and deal land and ceasefires in Ukraine as if it’s their choice", while it's not acceptable that Germans, French or Italians do it?
 

GlastonSpur

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From the BBC:

"Russian-installed mayor in intensive care after blast - reports

An update now on Andriy Shevchyk, the man installed by Russia as the mayor of occupied Enerhodar.

Shevchyk is now in intensive care after being injured in an explosion, Russia's state-run Ria Novosti news agency reports.

No further details were available.

Earlier we reported that Shevchyk and his bodyguards were hurt in what appeared to be a "precise and targeted attack", according to the city's elected mayor - who was ousted from power by the Russians."
 

Raoul

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frostbite said:
Yes, you are right. However, there is a difference between talking and doing. The main problem is not that Germany is speaking softly, the problem is that they are doing too little AND they are speaking too softly.

They could be doing the classic "speak softly and carry a big stick". Unfortunately, Scholz's version is "speak softly and be a useless moron".
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I think German leaders are still, to a degree, living with the ghosts of past militarism (much as the Japanese are), which is affecting their behavior in crises of the present. The Germans are also now paying the price for their lopsided over-reliance on Putin for energy, which can't be dismissed as a factor.
 

frostbite

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NotThatSoph said:
Maybe. This big stick you're talking about, is that what makes it acceptable for the Americans to "wheel and deal land and ceasefires in Ukraine as if it’s their choice", while it's not acceptable that Germans, French or Italians do it?
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This is getting boring. The US defense secretary told the Russian defense secretary about cease fire (after they kill Putin, haha). It wasn't Biden. There is a difference. If you can't see it, I can't help, sorry.
 

NotThatSoph

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frostbite said:
This is getting boring. The US defense secretary told the Russian defense secretary about cease fire (after they kill Putin, haha). It wasn't Biden. There is a difference. If you can't see it, I can't help, sorry.
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Ok, then we have finally cleared things up. It is totally fine to "wheel and deal land and ceasefires in Ukraine" as long as those doing it aren't heads of state. If for instance Christine Lambrecht, the German minister of defence, was to call for a ceasefire, then that would be ok, correct?
 

frostbite

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Raoul said:
I think German leaders are still, to a degree, living with the ghosts of past militarism (much as the Japanese are), which is affecting their behavior in crises of the present. The Germans are also now paying the price for their lopsided over-reliance on Putin for energy, which can't be dismissed as a factor.
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I have the suspicion that it runs much deeper than that. A previous Prime Minister holds a lot of positions in Russian companies. I doubt that he is the only politician who has personal financial gains from Russia. It is hard to believe that they converted a PM but not any lower standing politicians. (For example, GW Bush being on the board of Exxon is less likely than some other ex-politician being on the board of Exxon.) And even the politicians who are not being paid directly, may have stocks in Russian companies because they knew about the other politicians who are directly involved, so they thought it was a good investment. Politicians in the same party are close to each other and talk to each other. All these politicians do not want to lose their money, they prefer the war to end and the situation to return to normalcy as soon as possible. And then you have all the rich donors who also have personal gains in Russia.

For me, this explains why the Greens (doves) in Germany want to help Ukraine, most ordinary Germans agree, but SPD is not doing much. Of course, nobody will accuse SPD in public like this, but at this point I cannot find a more logical explanation. Am I wrong?

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-war-recasts-germany-green-party-russia/
 
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frostbite

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NotThatSoph said:
Ok, then we have finally cleared things up. It is totally fine to "wheel and deal land and ceasefires in Ukraine" as long as those doing it aren't heads of state. If for instance Christine Lambrecht, the German minister of defence, was to call for a ceasefire, then that would be ok, correct?
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Okay, you convinced me. (Imagine I am screaming here: )

Americans should be doing MORE. Send the F-35s please!
 

Pintu

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frostbite said:
Okay, you convinced me. (Imagine I am screaming here: )

Americans should be doing MORE. Send the F-35s please!
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I don’t think it should be taken the way you are taking it. Nobody has ever said anything about giving up territory. Zelenskyy is saying similar things to what Italy Getmany and France have been pushing. He also wants a ceasefire as a first step. I don’t know if he is saying this is Ukraine’s official position now but at least he himself seems to be pushing this line. And at the end he has the final word (on behalf of Ukrainians)

 
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RedDevilQuebecois

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GlastonSpur said:
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Alexander III was highly reactionary and reversed some of the liberal reforms of his father, Alexander II. In the end, the ground for his successor Nicholas II became a large minefield as autocracy became absolute. So we can say that Alexander III allowed the rot to fester while Nicholas only finished the demolition work of the centuries-long monarchy.
 

frostbite

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It is not that hard to understand that a ceasefire without any prerequisites will just mean that Russia will have time to consolidate the territory it has already taken.

This is what I was talking about (front page today):

Ukraine rules out any ceasefire deal that involves ceding territory to Russia

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/22/ukraine-russia-ceasefire-deal-territory-donbas

“The war must end with the complete restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty,” said Ukraine’s presidential chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, in a Twitter post.

The Polish president, Andrzej Duda, offered Warsaw’s backing, telling politicians in Kyiv that the international community had to demand Russia’s complete withdrawal and that sacrificing any of Ukraine’s territory would be a “huge blow” to the west.

“Worrying voices have appeared, saying that Ukraine should give in to Putin’s demands,” Duda said, in the first in-person address to the Ukrainian parliament by a foreign leader since Russia’s invasion on 24 February. “Only Ukraine has the right to decide about its future,” he said.
 
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stefan92

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frostbite said:
For me, this explains why the Greens (doves) in Germany want to help Ukraine, most ordinary Germans agree, but SPD is not doing much. Of course, nobody will accuse SPD in public like this, but at this point I cannot find a more logical explanation. Am I wrong?

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-war-recasts-germany-green-party-russia/
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I think you are missing the age difference and the effect that has. SPD is mostly voted for by elder people, and they have strong ties to the German peace movement, as ot formed after WW2 and as it was reinforced after the German reunification. Peace with Russia was seen as the key to get Germany reunited, and getting that peace by trade relations etc was seen as the right way to do. The military was mostly an afterthought no one cared about, as no one wanted to see Germany fight a war. It's not like there are just some corrupt politicians bought by Russia, it is simply the result of the close ties to the classic German peace movement (and as always we Germans tend to make things reaaaally good to the point it becomes stupid, like here).

The result is that the Bundeswehr is in a horrible shape and has very little to give.

The younger generation who predominantly votes for Greens and FDP grew up in a time of ugly little wars (beginning with ex-Yugoslavia) and sees the need for military actions under certain circumstances.

The conservative CDU of course is also voted for mostly by elder people, but as conservatives they are generally more in favour of the military and never liked Russia that much.
 

Spark

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Walrus said:
I remember (much) earlier in this thread advocating for this kind of hard line approach, only to be accused of being a warmonger by various on here. It remains the case though - Putin and Russia only respect strength. Talk of concessions and ceasefires - hell, pretty much any kind of talk - will be seen as weakness.

Next time Lavrov or whoever starts talking about nukes, they should be reminded that other countries also have nukes, and that unlike Russia, their arsenals are probably full maintained and ready to go.
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To be fair, Russia's sabre rattling has backfired spectacularly so far. For some reason they keep threatening drastic measures only to have to climb down. The West don't have to mention nukes, publicly test missiles, have ridiculous military parades with full on ICBMs because their capabilities have been proven on actual battlefields in every decade in the modern (and pre-modern tbf) era. There's a reason why China are waiting so long to take Taiwan.

What we do need to do is not give an inch to Russia, something that Germany (and Israel and India and all the other countries who have clear economic reasons to not want to write off existing deals) are clearly doing by trying to stick as closely to the fence as possible. So totally agree with you in that regard.

You have to remember that it's actually really easy for the UK to be balls deep in helping Ukraine as relations with Russia were already non-existent prior to the war. With nothing to lose, beyond the unlikely case of Russia declaring war on the UK, Johnson can do everything he can to help Ukraine militarily and seem like the saviour even though he's done absolutely jack shit to help refugees and alleviate the humanitarian crisis. And to add insult to injury he's actually on a collision course with the whole of the EU and the US over Northern Ireland, something that could have major ramifications in dealing with Russia.

Germany need to buck up and get on board, however it's not a basket of fruit anywhere else once you start scratching beneath the surface.
 

harms

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GlastonSpur said:
Putin 'will be sent to sanatorium by next year to avoid a coup' - Ex-MI6 chief claims:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/worl...o-avoid-a-coup-ex-mi6-chief-claims/ar-AAXA5gS
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Don’t sensationalize articles, please.


I think he'll be gone by 2023 - but probably into the sanatorium, from which he will not emerge as the leader of Russia.

I'm not saying he won't emerge from the sanatorium, but he won't emerge as the leader of Russia any longer. And that's a way to sort of move things on without a coup.
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