Maybe but keep saying we need absolute minimum of RB,DM (backup) CM & ST. You could even put GK into that too but hard to prioritise it over those. So if I had to choose specific players
RB Frimpong
DM Lavia
CM Mac Allister/Barella
ST Kane
‘Successful’ scenarios for Summer ‘23
- Thread starter Jericholyte2
- Start date
RB Frimpong
DM Lavia
CM Mac Allister/Barella
ST Kane
I have no doubt that it's not realistic in terms of numbers but I think for the outs they're reasonable individually. But yeah, I would expect maybe 3-4 sales at most and clearly we aren't going to make that many signings.
Both Barella and Tonali would be elite signings here. But rarely do top Italian players leave Serie A. Another great Italian young player is Davide Frattesi.
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David Raya ~ £25m
Mateo Kovačić ~ £30m
Harry Kane ~ £75m
Would be excited with these three signings + potential bonus signings depending on sales: Kim Min Jae's release clause activated, young GK like Bart Verbruggen, young CM like Enzo Le Fee due to his contract situation, and RB if one of AWB or Dalot leaves.
But all that would probably require more than one window, which unfortunately excludes Kim and Le Fee from the equation.
Mateo Kovačić ~ £30m
Harry Kane ~ £75m
Would be excited with these three signings + potential bonus signings depending on sales: Kim Min Jae's release clause activated, young GK like Bart Verbruggen, young CM like Enzo Le Fee due to his contract situation, and RB if one of AWB or Dalot leaves.
But all that would probably require more than one window, which unfortunately excludes Kim and Le Fee from the equation.
Use Sancho as part exchange for Bellingham? Dortmund are the team who would value him most.
In:
Gavi — Free
Vitor Roques — £40m
Joao Felix — £80m
Jurrien Timber — £50m
Gonçalo Inácio — £45m
Manuel Ugarte — £45m
Rasmus Højlund — £45m (release clause)
Arijanet Muric — 25m
Total: 350m
Starting XI:
———————Højlund————————
Rasford———————————————
—————————Bruno———Antony
————Gavi—————————————
————————Casemiro——————
Shaw—Martinez——Varane—Dalot
—————————DDG————————
Depth:
————————Roque————————
Garnacho——————————————
——————————Felix————Amad
————Eriksen———————————
————————Ugarte————————
Malacia—Inacio——Timber——AWB
————————Muricic———————
Extra: Mejbri, Pellestri
Non-homegrown over 21: 12 (could get 5 more)
Sell:
Sancho — 35m (he is on a ridiculous 350k a week)
Lindelof — 30m
Maguire — 20m
Henderson — 20m
Martial — 20m
Elanga — 15m
Total: 140m
Finance:
In total it’s 350m out and 140m in, but given the massive amount of salary we would be clearing and how many of the new signings shouldn’t be that expensive, we wouldn’t add any salary. 350m in signings if all players sign 5 year deal means 70m per year in amortization. The net gain on the player sales would be 69m and we would save 33m in amortization — so our squad costs would actually be lower despite all these signings, next season. So we would have no problem whatsoever making these signings under the FFP (if we finish top 4).
Gavi — Free
Vitor Roques — £40m
Joao Felix — £80m
Jurrien Timber — £50m
Gonçalo Inácio — £45m
Manuel Ugarte — £45m
Rasmus Højlund — £45m (release clause)
Arijanet Muric — 25m
Total: 350m
Starting XI:
———————Højlund————————
Rasford———————————————
—————————Bruno———Antony
————Gavi—————————————
————————Casemiro——————
Shaw—Martinez——Varane—Dalot
—————————DDG————————
Depth:
————————Roque————————
Garnacho——————————————
——————————Felix————Amad
————Eriksen———————————
————————Ugarte————————
Malacia—Inacio——Timber——AWB
————————Muricic———————
Extra: Mejbri, Pellestri
Non-homegrown over 21: 12 (could get 5 more)
Sell:
Sancho — 35m (he is on a ridiculous 350k a week)
Lindelof — 30m
Maguire — 20m
Henderson — 20m
Martial — 20m
Elanga — 15m
Total: 140m
Finance:
In total it’s 350m out and 140m in, but given the massive amount of salary we would be clearing and how many of the new signings shouldn’t be that expensive, we wouldn’t add any salary. 350m in signings if all players sign 5 year deal means 70m per year in amortization. The net gain on the player sales would be 69m and we would save 33m in amortization — so our squad costs would actually be lower despite all these signings, next season. So we would have no problem whatsoever making these signings under the FFP (if we finish top 4).
Imagining the best-case scenario for the summer is one where new ownership comes in and says enough with loan deals and people stealing a living we are moving players on for whatever we can get if they aren't part of the long-term picture.
With that in mind, I'd love to see something like this by the end of summer.
De Gea
Kovar
Heaton
Frimpong
Dalot
Varane
Martinez
Antonio Silva
Lindelof
Shaw
Malacia
Casemiro
Manuel Ugarte
Bellingham
Fred
Mejbri
Antony
Amad
Bruno
Eriksen
Rashford
Garnacho
Kane
Hojlund
Signings
Jeremie Frimpong
Antonio Silva
Manuel Ugarte
Jude Bellingham
Harry Kane
Ramsus Hojlund
Sold
Dean Henderson
Aaron Wan-Bissaka
Ethan Laird
Axel Tuanzebe
Phil Jones
Harry Maguire
Eric Bailly
Alex Telles
Scott McTominay
Donny Van de Beek
Jadon Sancho
Antony Martial
I don't think this will happen or is realistic but I'd be really surprised if anyone out of the sold list didn't end up at least loaned out. I'd just rather see us cut our losses and really start fresh.
I will say as well we absolutely must get two strikers this summer. I can't watch Weghorst or Martial again after this year. So whether is Hojlund or Vitor Roque or Sesko or a cheaper backup option to the marquee striker we sign we have to get two in.
With that in mind, I'd love to see something like this by the end of summer.
De Gea
Kovar
Heaton
Frimpong
Dalot
Varane
Martinez
Antonio Silva
Lindelof
Shaw
Malacia
Casemiro
Manuel Ugarte
Bellingham
Fred
Mejbri
Antony
Amad
Bruno
Eriksen
Rashford
Garnacho
Kane
Hojlund
Signings
Jeremie Frimpong
Antonio Silva
Manuel Ugarte
Jude Bellingham
Harry Kane
Ramsus Hojlund
Sold
Dean Henderson
Aaron Wan-Bissaka
Ethan Laird
Axel Tuanzebe
Phil Jones
Harry Maguire
Eric Bailly
Alex Telles
Scott McTominay
Donny Van de Beek
Jadon Sancho
Antony Martial
I don't think this will happen or is realistic but I'd be really surprised if anyone out of the sold list didn't end up at least loaned out. I'd just rather see us cut our losses and really start fresh.
I will say as well we absolutely must get two strikers this summer. I can't watch Weghorst or Martial again after this year. So whether is Hojlund or Vitor Roque or Sesko or a cheaper backup option to the marquee striker we sign we have to get two in.
Sell: martial, mctom, maguire, dalot or
Awb, donny, elanga, Williams. = 140mil euros in sales.
jones leaves.
Weghorst and sabitzer go back to respective clubs.
kane/Osimhen and hojlund/Felix to replace martial and Weghorst.
james madison
Declan rice.
frimpong/pavard for right back.
Awb, donny, elanga, Williams. = 140mil euros in sales.
jones leaves.
Weghorst and sabitzer go back to respective clubs.
kane/Osimhen and hojlund/Felix to replace martial and Weghorst.
james madison
Declan rice.
frimpong/pavard for right back.
James Ward-Prowse (replaces Scott) - £20m
Matteo Kovacic (replaces FDJ) - Free
Harry Kane (Replaces Martial) - £80m
Evan Ferguson (striker cover) - £40m
Throw in a CB
Matteo Kovacic (replaces FDJ) - Free
Harry Kane (Replaces Martial) - £80m
Evan Ferguson (striker cover) - £40m
Throw in a CB
Haha as if those prices are remotely realistic.
JWP minimum 40
Kovacic 30-40
Kane nearer 100
Ferguson - 70+
Why would Chelsea just give us Kovacic for free?
Isn't Kovacic on a free?
JWP, nowhere near £40m from a relegated team.
No one is buying Ferguson for £70m, Isak went for £65m
I thought his deal was up?Why would Chelsea just give us Kovacic for free?
Kovacic has a year left.
Ferguson will absolutely cost over 70. And you may be right, nobody takes him for that. And Brighton will be OK with that.
In:
Raya - £30m
Frimpong - £35M
Min-Jae - £40M
FDJ - £80M
Rabiot - Free
Thuram - Free
Kane - £100M
Total: £285M
Out:
De Gea
Henderson - £20M
Dalot - £20M
Maguire - £25M
Bailly - £5M
Williams - £5M
McTominay - £20M
VDB - £10M
Martial - £15M
Total: 125M
Net: £160M
Raya
Frimpong Varane Martinez Shaw
Casemiro FDJ
Antony Bruno Rashford
Kane
Heaton
AWB Min-Jae Lindelof Malacia
Lavia Rabiot
Amad Eriksen Sancho
Thuram
Raya - £30m
Frimpong - £35M
Min-Jae - £40M
FDJ - £80M
Rabiot - Free
Thuram - Free
Kane - £100M
Total: £285M
Out:
De Gea
Henderson - £20M
Dalot - £20M
Maguire - £25M
Bailly - £5M
Williams - £5M
McTominay - £20M
VDB - £10M
Martial - £15M
Total: 125M
Net: £160M
Raya
Frimpong Varane Martinez Shaw
Casemiro FDJ
Antony Bruno Rashford
Kane
Heaton
AWB Min-Jae Lindelof Malacia
Lavia Rabiot
Amad Eriksen Sancho
Thuram
I think we all want a clear out of the dead wood, they've all been mentioned here in one post or another... unless the club is sold I can't see this happening.. Read that the Glazers have a £300 million credit for transfers?..
I can see Players like Tuenzabe, Telles, Maguire, Brandon Williams, etc all being sold and not for much.. maybe £80 million for those... buys you 1 quality player... Mctom has to go I think he'd fetch over £30 million..
I'd like 2 CM.. and Bellingham and Mcallister.. would be for me that's a massive chunk of change.. 2 Strikers, or 1 Quality one, and Greenwood comes back into the squad.. ..
My worry is the Glazers do not sell and scrimp on Transfers... if they stay they will have to spend there 300 million next season on transfers...
I can see Players like Tuenzabe, Telles, Maguire, Brandon Williams, etc all being sold and not for much.. maybe £80 million for those... buys you 1 quality player... Mctom has to go I think he'd fetch over £30 million..
I'd like 2 CM.. and Bellingham and Mcallister.. would be for me that's a massive chunk of change.. 2 Strikers, or 1 Quality one, and Greenwood comes back into the squad.. ..
My worry is the Glazers do not sell and scrimp on Transfers... if they stay they will have to spend there 300 million next season on transfers...
jaysus, it seems like we're after everyone with a pair of football boots and a pulse.
I see we are in the comedy season already, with predictions of a massive churn of players. Far more likely that we will see one striker (and it won't be Kane or Osimhen), one midfielder who is expected to cover Casemiro and be able to play alongside him as well (and it won't be Bellingham or FDJ) and one other depending on who we sell. The market is going to be brutal, especially in midfield (City need to replace Gundogan, Arsenal need another for the CL season, Liverpool need an entire new set-up, Newcastle aren't standing still... and that's just in this country). Apart from that I think a couple of the younger ones will get minutes. And we'll still be a year away from challenging for top honours (which is a realistic schedule). Still, we can all dream......
That is the best I have seen so far,if I was being uber picky I would go for Maignan. Unfortunately there is no way we sign all of them even with two being free agents.
Why you so convinced we can't get either ST
Cost. And past experience.
Tuanzebe, Telles, Bailiy, Jones, Williams and Hendo all out for sure.
Questionable: Maguire, Lindelof, McT, Elanga, Weghorst. If any of these leave then I expect them to be replaced.
CF in for sure and Greenwood back in the squad.
Questionable: Maguire, Lindelof, McT, Elanga, Weghorst. If any of these leave then I expect them to be replaced.
CF in for sure and Greenwood back in the squad.
We need a big, successful summer this year. I think it would look something like this -
IN:
Raya/D. Costa (~£40m) + Butland (Free)
*Frimpong (~£35m)
*Young promising CB (If Lindelof stays ~£30m) + *Kim Min-Jae (If Lindelof/Maguire leaves - release clause ~£40m)
*Lavia (*If Southampton go down ~£35m) or Ugarte (Release clause £53m) or *Rice (If West Ham go down ~£60m)
Tielemans (Free) + *Sabitzer (If unable to sign any of the above ~£15m)
*Maddison (*if Leicester go down ~£40m ) if not then Le Fee (~£25m)
Kane (~£80m) + Hojlund/Ferguson (Probably the cheapest one for ~ £50m) or Osimhen (~£120m) + Thuram (free)
OUT:
Henderson (~£25m)
B. Williams (~£10m)
Jones (Released)
Bailly (£6.2m - If Marseille activate the option)
Tuanzebe (Released)
Telles (~£5m)
Elanga (I don't think he'll stay here to be emergency back-up ~£15m)
Greenwood (I know the charges were dropped but I still don't think we should keep him after hearing that recording, he'd be problematic for our future sponsorships)
Martial (~£15m - feels low but I can't see us getting too much more for a player with his wage demands and injury record)
Weghorst (Loan expired. Love his attitude but only good enough as third/fourth choice)
*de Gea (If unwilling to accept huge reduce in salary - Free
)
*Dalot (If we sign a new, attacking right back ~£25m) - Probably an unpopular take but would rather have one attacking and one defensive (AWB)
*Lindelof (If he does not want to stay on as a squad player ~£20m)
*McTominay (If no longer wishes to be a squad player ~£15m)
A. Fernandez (Loan)
Iqbal (Loan)
Shoretire (Loan)
Amad or Pellistri (Loan one, promote the other one)
NB: I think Maguire should be offered out but I can't see anyone paying a decent fee for him or paying the wages he will ask for. Same for Donny - can't see him leaving with that injury.
Would love FdJ or Bellingham but just cannot see either happening and would hate to waste our entire summer chasing and ending up with neither.
I think that would clear out most of the remaining dead wood and set us up longer term to challenge again. Can see me getting slammed for some of these prices but:
1. We're a terrible selling club and never seem to get much back for our unwanted players
2. For the INs they are a rough guide of what I'd be happy for us to pay, not necessarily what would be accepted.
IN:
Raya/D. Costa (~£40m) + Butland (Free)
*Frimpong (~£35m)
*Young promising CB (If Lindelof stays ~£30m) + *Kim Min-Jae (If Lindelof/Maguire leaves - release clause ~£40m)
*Lavia (*If Southampton go down ~£35m) or Ugarte (Release clause £53m) or *Rice (If West Ham go down ~£60m)
Tielemans (Free) + *Sabitzer (If unable to sign any of the above ~£15m)
*Maddison (*if Leicester go down ~£40m ) if not then Le Fee (~£25m)
Kane (~£80m) + Hojlund/Ferguson (Probably the cheapest one for ~ £50m) or Osimhen (~£120m) + Thuram (free)
OUT:
Henderson (~£25m)
B. Williams (~£10m)
Jones (Released)
Bailly (£6.2m - If Marseille activate the option)
Tuanzebe (Released)
Telles (~£5m)
Elanga (I don't think he'll stay here to be emergency back-up ~£15m)
Greenwood (I know the charges were dropped but I still don't think we should keep him after hearing that recording, he'd be problematic for our future sponsorships)
Martial (~£15m - feels low but I can't see us getting too much more for a player with his wage demands and injury record)
Weghorst (Loan expired. Love his attitude but only good enough as third/fourth choice)
*de Gea (If unwilling to accept huge reduce in salary - Free
)*Dalot (If we sign a new, attacking right back ~£25m) - Probably an unpopular take but would rather have one attacking and one defensive (AWB)
*Lindelof (If he does not want to stay on as a squad player ~£20m)
*McTominay (If no longer wishes to be a squad player ~£15m)
A. Fernandez (Loan)
Iqbal (Loan)
Shoretire (Loan)
Amad or Pellistri (Loan one, promote the other one)
NB: I think Maguire should be offered out but I can't see anyone paying a decent fee for him or paying the wages he will ask for. Same for Donny - can't see him leaving with that injury.
Would love FdJ or Bellingham but just cannot see either happening and would hate to waste our entire summer chasing and ending up with neither.
I think that would clear out most of the remaining dead wood and set us up longer term to challenge again. Can see me getting slammed for some of these prices but:
1. We're a terrible selling club and never seem to get much back for our unwanted players
2. For the INs they are a rough guide of what I'd be happy for us to pay, not necessarily what would be accepted.
1. CF.
2. CM
3. GK
4. DM (Backup)
5. RB
6. CB (Backup)
Out. Henderson, Bailly, Tuanzebe, Jones, Telles, Williams, DVB, Elanga.
Maybee out. DDG, Maguire/Lindelöf, AWB/Dalot, Mctominay, Greenwood, Martial.
GK
RB Varane Martinez Shaw
Casemiro CM
Antony Bruno Rashford
CF
DDG/Heaton
AWB/Dalot CB Lindelöf/Maguire Malacia
DM Eriksen
Amad Sancho Garnacho
Martial/Greenwood
Kovar/Heaton Fred Pellestri
I think the first 4 are crucial, the others depends on who is leaving.
2. CM
3. GK
4. DM (Backup)
5. RB
6. CB (Backup)
Out. Henderson, Bailly, Tuanzebe, Jones, Telles, Williams, DVB, Elanga.
Maybee out. DDG, Maguire/Lindelöf, AWB/Dalot, Mctominay, Greenwood, Martial.
GK
RB Varane Martinez Shaw
Casemiro CM
Antony Bruno Rashford
CF
DDG/Heaton
AWB/Dalot CB Lindelöf/Maguire Malacia
DM Eriksen
Amad Sancho Garnacho
Martial/Greenwood
Kovar/Heaton Fred Pellestri
I think the first 4 are crucial, the others depends on who is leaving.
Would switch 3 and 4 just because of how bigger miss Casa is to this team,having said that a more confident GK is vital for Erik
In the starting 11 the biggest upgrade we can make is in the CF position. Martial is almost never fit and he doesn't score enough goals.
The second biggest upgrade is a new GK. Sweeping, playing out from the back, claiming crosses, organise the defense. I think DDG is pretty bad in all these areas. I think he lacks confidence and he doesn't step up in the big games. Ha can not continue if we want to challenge for the biggest trophies.
3. A more mobile version of Eriksen. Someone who is better in defense, but still has Eriksens playmaking abilities.
4. DM backup
5. CB backup
I think we can afford to wait with the RB.
The CF is probably 80-140 Kane/Oshimen
GK 30-70 Raya/Costa
CM 30-50 Someone similar to Enzo or FDJ. I have no idea who.
DM 20-30 Lavia/Neves
CB 40 Kim
It depends who the new owners are and who we can sell.
Raya
Macallister
Kane/Osimhen/Toney
Macallister
Kane/Osimhen/Toney
Take Toney off list until punishment confirmed
Would love a total rebuild. But cant we have too many players on big wages. Dream window is:
ins
Kobel
Kim Jae Min
Veiga
Lavia
Theo Hernandez
Frimpong
Kane
Sign Sabitzer
outs
Maguire
Martial
Weghorst
Sancho
Mctominey
DVB
Fred
Henderson
De Gea
Dalot
Lindelof
dream squad if we get the Qatar money
GK Kobel , Heaton , Butland
RB Frimpong, AWB
LB Theo, Malacia
CB Varane, Martinez, Kim, Shaw
DM Casemiro, Lavia
CM Eriksen, Bruno, Veiga , Sabitzer , Hanibal
RW Antony, Diallo
LW Rashford, Garancho
ST Kane, (Greenwood if allowed back)
ins
Kobel
Kim Jae Min
Veiga
Lavia
Theo Hernandez
Frimpong
Kane
Sign Sabitzer
outs
Maguire
Martial
Weghorst
Sancho
Mctominey
DVB
Fred
Henderson
De Gea
Dalot
Lindelof
dream squad if we get the Qatar money
GK Kobel , Heaton , Butland
RB Frimpong, AWB
LB Theo, Malacia
CB Varane, Martinez, Kim, Shaw
DM Casemiro, Lavia
CM Eriksen, Bruno, Veiga , Sabitzer , Hanibal
RW Antony, Diallo
LW Rashford, Garancho
ST Kane, (Greenwood if allowed back)
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I think a lot would love to see that lot gone, can't see it myself unless new owners come in and make big changes..
Time for Erik to get the ban hammer.
OUT:
DDG - don't renew the contract, ideally - sell for 10 mil back to Spain.
Maguire - sell for 15 million to anyone stupid enough to have him. Just get the rot out, under any price actually.
Bailly - sell for 2 million. Fire sale.
Telles - see above.
Jones - release him already.
Tuanzebe - see above.
Elanga - not gonna make it. Cash in. Sell for 10 million.
One of Fred or Mctominay. 10 million.
Incoming amount - around 40-50 million.
Maybe:
Henderson - does he wants to stay? Saves us looking for a GK.
Greenwood - do we want him to stay?
IN:
CF - anyone actually. Kane, Osimeh, Vlahović, Hojlund....Ferguson, Toney....don't really care.
MF - Erik is keen on FDJ, probably sees him as the missing peace. Tend to agree.
GK - again, anyone. We just need a change of scenery. Costa, Maignan, Raya.....what ever we can get our hands on.
That's the essentials. The rest is just a bonus. Maybe a RB?
We have Amad coming back. That's a bonus.
OUT:
DDG - don't renew the contract, ideally - sell for 10 mil back to Spain.
Maguire - sell for 15 million to anyone stupid enough to have him. Just get the rot out, under any price actually.
Bailly - sell for 2 million. Fire sale.
Telles - see above.
Jones - release him already.
Tuanzebe - see above.
Elanga - not gonna make it. Cash in. Sell for 10 million.
One of Fred or Mctominay. 10 million.
Incoming amount - around 40-50 million.
Maybe:
Henderson - does he wants to stay? Saves us looking for a GK.
Greenwood - do we want him to stay?
IN:
CF - anyone actually. Kane, Osimeh, Vlahović, Hojlund....Ferguson, Toney....don't really care.
MF - Erik is keen on FDJ, probably sees him as the missing peace. Tend to agree.
GK - again, anyone. We just need a change of scenery. Costa, Maignan, Raya.....what ever we can get our hands on.
That's the essentials. The rest is just a bonus. Maybe a RB?
We have Amad coming back. That's a bonus.
The general outlines of the transfer strategy is seemingly taking shape. If a new owner will come in and want to make a splash -- which it seems like our management are planning on -- I could see the logic behind a transfer window like this:
SELLING -- creating space to buy
Players sold because they are not a fit
Dean Henderson -- 25m //No explanation needed. I am a bit doubtful about how much we will get for him. Someone leaked a report that Nottingham was willing to pay 30m. Wasn't Forrest that leaked that. Why would we leak it? Think we just as well could get 10-15m. But I wouldn't rule out 25m either.
Scott McTominay -- 20m //There will certainly be interest in McTominay. For teams to go out and spend more than 20m, they will want to get someone that can be a core player. Sure there are exceptions, but a team like WH pays 22m for a Thilo Kehrer from PSG, those prices seldomly lands at 35-40m.
Harry Maguire -- 15m //Regardless of what has been reported, I can't see us getting that much for Maguire. He is overpaid by -- at least -- 5m per year for 3 more seasons, at 200k a week. That is 15m. Do you get 30m for a Maguire on a fair contract? If so, you get 15m on the contract he is on now. In addition -- Harry Maguire is in a position to pick the club he is going to. Sure there could be a couple of attractive teams for him that are interested in him. But more likely than not, Harry will let the club know that if he is going, its to "team X". That team won't chomp at the bits in any negotiations. They will be like, ah, ok, we can loan him if you pay his salary. We "should" of course be able to get a fee for him, but all I am saying is that there are questionmarks and we won't be in a good negotiations position.
This opens up a lot of FFP space for the transfer window, i.e. improves our earnings with almost 63m for the period we will be judged for after this summer. We today has about 100m to spend in relation to the FFP, and with these sales we could spend up towards 250-300m (counting on three players at 100m per and 200k a week). But from my point of view, that will not be enough. 140m would go to Mount and Rice. In addition, we need at a minimum a GK, a CB and 2 strikers.
How much can be saved on the dead wood?
So how about Telles and Bailly? Martial? DVB?
DVB -- Loan //First of all, I don't think we can sell Donny this summer. He has -- three -- years left on his contract. That is a 15m commitment. With his recent injury history, its buyer beware. I am sure someone will take a loan with a mandatory option to buy if Donny for example plays the majority of the games, and those conditions could be decent. But its not time to sell
Telles, Bailly and Martial -- 0
If we could sell these guys for a fiver each, we would save 22.4m in accordance with the below. I don't think we can do that. There will be loans, selling team's selling contribution etc. But I think we could save costs of 10m next season be getting rid of them. This wouldn't be enough either.
Players sold to raise cash
Hence, I think we need to sell players, just to raise cash. Remember that selling a player doesn't increase our FFP room on a dollar for dollar basis. Lets look at Victor Lindelöf for example.
Today, he impacts our finance in the following way. Having renewed his contract during its term, app. 3.1m of his signing from Benfica remains on our balance sheet for one more year. In addition, his salary is 6m per. Lindelof is just 28 y/o, and should have his best 4-5 years in front of him. We should be able to get about 25-30m for him. So if we sell him for 25m, we won't pay his salary of 6,2m, we won't amortize his contact with 3.1m per season, and the net result on his sale would be 25m - 3.1m = 21.9m. In total, this improves our earnings for next season with 31.24m. I.e. enough to buy a player for 100m and giving him a 5 year contract at 200k a week.
The players who can come into question here are from my point of view: Sancho, Fred (could perhaps fit in above), AWB, Lindelöf and Dalot.
Why? I think it comes down to this.
-Sancho has no place on the team. He was good against Chelsea -- but that was the most open game of the Premier League season -- de facto (i.e. highest xG forr a game). ETH will 100% prefer Antony at RW, always. At LW, we have Rash and Garncho. He is definitely weak for a central midfielder, even in Bruno's role. And he is massively expensive at 350k a week and with yearly amortizations of 17m (i.e. he costs more than 35m per season). Should he get another season? Sure, that argument can be made. Not saying that he will be sold, people knowing more than me seems to expect that he is staying.
-Fred? Who is buying him? Like sure, all of a sudden a PSG will want him. Fred is super well liked, very experienced, team loyal. But...
-Lindelof? He and Varane are about the same age. Both will fall off a cliff at about the same time in 4-5 years time. Lindelof isn't a huge contributor when Varane is out. Lindelof might want to play more than he will being behind Varane. At the same time, he will play quite much behind Varane. He has been "good enough" for a No 3-4 CB. So you never know. But I think very "attractive" clubs would come knocking on the door for him. He could probably pick between teams like Inter Milan, Athletico Madrid. Those leagues aren't as tough as the PL. I would bet on him staying, the comment about looking forward to CL football at OT didn't sound like someone who is halfway out the door.
-AWB? In a way, it seems like the lazy option. But with that said -- I don't think ETH is perfectly satisfied with his RBs. From my viewpoint, AWB lacks a lot of what ETH want in a footballer in that role, but he got so much else in his game that makes up for much of it. I've noticed that ETH generally have used Dalot against better teams and AWB against worse teams -- which could seem a bit contra intuitive, but I think it comes from Dalot being a better passer and ETH hence option for him for him because he knows that there will be a huge challenge in the possession game, while AWB will dominate wingers with lesser physical capabilities. Dalot on the other hand has the raw outlines of everything ETH wants in a wing back. He can defend. He isn't bad in the air. He can shift sides of the play. He is good when he inverts into the middle of the pitch. Dalot could definitely have the touch necessary to operate at CM at a higher level. He is calm and collected and can have a strategic approach to the game. But the big downside with Dalot -- that isn't talked about all that much -- is that the game is a bit fast for his thought process at times. If we play a better team, it is very important that you are able to early step up and take control of the game. You must chest up and play yourself out of the initial pressure, set the tone. Classic Dalot is to start with 3 brain farts the first 5 minutes.
AWB has clearly overtaken Dalot lately. Does Dalot want to play second fiddle to AWB? He only has a year left on his contract. What are his contract demands? Dalot is a regular of the Portuguese national team. He has proven that he can play for both AC Milan and Manchester United. Just theoretically, if he opts to leave this summer, he wouldn't take three steps down the latter in terms of attractiveness of the club he plays for. Barca is in trouble financially and can surely not sign him, but if they didn't have their hands tied behind their backs, I think they definitely would have considered it. If we sell Dalot, I think he goes and plays for a top 10-15 club in the world. On the other hand, perhaps AWB want to get back to London. You never know.
This is how we are impacted financially if we sell either:
Fred alone isn't enough. I think we need to sell one of Sancho, AWB, Lindelof and Dalot -- and even if it seems far fetched, I would actually bet on one of them being sold. Sancho's profit for our licensing after next season isn't major, but the year after that he gives us a 35m boost which is massive. Who would it be? I mean, its anyone's guess. I would perhaps rank them in order of likelihood of getting sold in the following order, but its just guesswork: Sancho, Dalot, AWB and Lindelof. I.e., I know many are very certain of Sancho staying another year, but I am not so sure. Its hard to guess, but I do think one of them is getting sold.
PLAYERS IN
What is the budget?
If we make the above sales (say that one of AWB/Dalot goes), we have a budget of app. 400m (we could spend about 500m and pass the 24' licensing, but then we would probably get in trouble in the 25' licensing). Definitely enough for a new owner to make somewhat of a big splash on the transfer market and reshape the squad for ETH.
What to make of Mason Mount and Declan Rice?
This is not two signings I would have argued for two weeks ago, but thinking it true, I do think that the reports make sense and I am not against it. First of all, going forward, we can basically afford a squad consisting of (spread over time) (a) 2 signings of 150m players, (b) 7 signings of 100m players, (c) 4 signings of 75m players, (d) 4 signings of 50m players, (e) 1 signing of a 15m player and (f) 4 academy players or free signings, as set out below. That gives us a squad cost of 504m, which is 70% of 720, which is what our revenue should be in a couple of years time (see below the breakdown of how 504m can be diveded over 22 players).
These guys are 24 y/o. In 4 years time, they will be in their absolute prime, and cost wise -- Mason Mount will be one of the cheaper players in the squad (top 13-16 perhaps) and Rice will be just around 10-12. Can we expect them to deliver at that level? Honestly, I think this makes them fairly low risks signings.
I see Declan Rice as someone who attribute wise tics a lot of boxes, but I am scared about the length of the transition period he will need to adopt to ETH football. But at the same time, he doesn't have to step in and fill Casemiro's shoes from day 1. He can play next to Casemiro against the top teams, and definitely help really well if we have to revert to playing more of a counter attack/defensive style even if that is not what we want. And he can also relief Casemiro against a little less capable teams (I see Bruno stepping down in the build up phase while Rice holds the fort physically). I also love that Rice is as strong in the air as he is -- because it enables us to carry CBs that are good on the ball without becoming too weak on set pieces.
Mason Mount is a quality player, that I don't think "improves" us in any significant way. Hence, two weeks ago I would have said never in a life time if asked if we should go for him. But when you break it down, I think that you also can look at it from this perspective. Against 75% of our opponents, Mason Mount is a contributing factor. His quality is higher than the competition's, against the non top 6 teams, and he will contribute with his hard work for sure. Against 25% of the opponents, I think we need more. But at £55m per, you know what, I take that. In other words, if we get Mount to play the minutes Sabitzer and Donny has played for us this year and some of McT and Fred's minutes -- he is a big upgrade, at an OK cost, that should have 7-8 years left in him.
And in addition, I do think that Mount has some potential. He could take another step. The kid is not afraid of hard work, and that is what it takes. Chelsea has not done him right, love the revenge factor. I like it.
I am counting on that these two will cost us app. 135m. 265m left.
What striker would I deem to be a success signing?
Assuming that Kane is not an option (not against me), I don't think we can get Victor Oshimen from Napoli. They can sell him next season just as well. They will want to keep the gang together, of course. If Oshimen goes, and KMJ goes, why should Kvaradonna stay? KMJ might not be stopped, but Napoli controls the rest. And if they tell Oshimen that he can moan all he wants, they will keep him one more year and then sell him next summer -- what is he going to do? Sit out the rest of the season? Its in Napoli's hands. If I was the boss of Napoli, I would play hard ball. If they just lose KMJ, they should win the Serie A again pretty comfortably and should challenge for the CL next season, at least go fairly deep.
That basically leaves Ramos, Kolo Muani, Vlahovic and a long shot in Sesko (who probably isn't for sale). I know that we are supposed to be focusing on Ramos -- and that is perfectly possible. But if I was betting on this -- I would put my money on Randal Kolo Muani.
Why? I would love to get Goncalo Ramos too. But he is just 21 y/o, and nobody can be 100% that he is ready for the PL. The kid has never faced any adversity in his career. He is a bit of a finesse striker (who does get involved physically for sure, but...). If things aren't going his way -- is he the type who fights through it? He does have quality, definitely. Can finish with both feet, good in the air, great first touch. And I wouldn't rule out that a scout could see that he should be a top priority because he has potential to not only become a high quality European striker, but like a Benzema type of performer who can carry a top European team. But I don't quite see that.
Randal Kolo Muani does however got that pure work horse side to his game. He is a great fit for ETH's style. He is really good on the press. He will come deep to get the ball. He is very strong individually, and defenders -- at any level -- have to be very focused and work really hard because if you just give him a little bit of space he will blow past you and go for the net. He is great on the counter attack, but also good in the air at 6'2. With that said, there are some question marks about his finishing ability, and while his dribbling ability is great -- how good is his first touch really?
Just like Mason Mount and Declan Rice, Randal Kolo Muani is not just the same age as them -- he is just as safe a bet too. It doesn't matter if you play Luton Town at home or Manchester City away -- you won't mind writing RKM name on the sheet with the starting XI. Is RKM someone that brings gives us an edge at the No 9 spot compared to City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Barca, Real, Bayern and co? He also has a bit of potential, but I wouldn't bet on him giving us an edge on a consistent basis over what does teams can put on the pitch at that position.. But with that said -- if he costs 100m -- I think we will get our money's worth. The No 9 position is important, even if RKM isn't going to be the one that leads us to the promise land -- he is a great option to put on with 20 minutes left. He is a great option to fill in for someone who is injured, no matter who the opponent is. He can also play as a LW/inside forward like Rashford. I do not think it is a signing we ever would regret. We do regret the Sancho signing right now, for example. Why? You don't know what you will get. Not a good option to put on in all situations. A bit up and down. Needs a bigger role to thrive. RKM is much more versatile/low maintenance.
100m for Randal Kolo Muani, that leaves us with 165m.
But one striker isn't enough, we need two!?
Definitely, and I can definitely see some logic in going after both RKM and GR. But I don't think we can pull that off. And remember, Benfica has just this season alone sold players for 262m. They don't have to sell Ramos. Its easily worth it for them to keep it around, worst case they get 60m for him instead of 100m, but its a fans owned club who doesn't exist to make a profit. Maybe he can force his way out, but I don't think they will sell him.
Looking at ETH's track record at Ajax, he bought a lot of South American players -- with great great success. Antony, Lisandro Martinez, Edson Alvarez And its a market we are said to want to get into more.
There are many options. We could tap into the striker rental market again, get someone like Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting. There are younger options around Europe. We could loan someone with an option to buy, by loaning a player to us, a club put that player in pretty big shopping window. We know that ETH contacted Brian Brobbery just a few months ago.
But one guy that sticks out from my point of view is Vitor Roque. Him signing with Barca has inofficially been a "done deal" for a long time. They want him, and if Barca comes knocking, why not take it. But Barca can't even resign their own top young players who are out of contract this summer. In addition, Messi has decided to move back there. Reports have Barca being forced to reduce their wage bill with 200m, that is selling 20 players making 200k a week... According to reports, we have reached out to him:
He is just 18 y/o, but has already played 56 games already across the top Brazilian league, the Brazilian Cup and the South American Champions League, scoring 15 goals. He has also played 25 minutes for the mens national team and been a regular and top scorer for their U20 national team.
I don't know if it makes sense to bring in a young Brazilian striker as a back-up No 9 for us. How good is this kid really? How long will he need to adopt to the European game and the Premier League? But even if its not the safest, best, business -- I just think it tics many boxes by being a very -- exciting -- signing. We would all be giddy about signing an 18 y/o Brazilian striker, right? He seems to be a very likable player type, the classic low center of gravity, very technical, exciting, hard working striker. Seems to be a bit slow though, but a good finisher. His price is said to be around 40-50m -- but I would bet that a big chunk of that would be "add-ons". The real cost -- if he never reach any of the milestones -- is probably closer to 20m.
In addition, I think that it is obvious that ETH is wrestling a little bit with the notion of having such an offensive forward type as Rashford at LW. Ideally, he wants his wingers to be able to come deep and get the ball more, exactly like Pep is using Grealish and Bernado Silva. Pep's wingers often comes so deep that they only have 2 or 3 players between them and their own goal in the build up phase. That is a significant key in becoming as dominant in possession as they are, those wingers are very hard to mark and pressure as passing options when they start from a higher point up the pitch and moves back towards the defenders on the ball. Hence, I don't think ETH will mind keep experimenting with Rashford at striker from time to time. Many players starts on the wing and grows into the striker position over time (like Ronaldo). Wouldn't at all be surprised to see Rashford as a striker between say 28 and 32 y/o. So even if we of course must get two strikers -- I am not so sure that our second striker must be able to come in and play against all possible opponents if the top option is injured.
Say 30m from this years budget, 135m left.
If a RB is sold, we need a RB, and that RB would be Jeremie Frimpong
Jeremie Frimpong tics a lot of boxes. Having spent like 8 years in City's academy, he is a "homegrown player" under the PL rules. The kid has a ton of potential. I watched Leverkusen's last game of the Bundesliga earlier today. They got a red card after 10 minutes. Its a ball playing team coached by Xabi Alonso. They kept playing an offensive style of football, and Frimpong was all over the pitch. They lost 3-0, but the shots were actually 12-11 and the possession was even. Frimpong should have had a goal (hit the inside of the post on a break away) and an assist, but the marginals just weren't on their side. They also played with a back 4 for the first time in a while. I think JF fits better with a back 4, he can handle the extra mileage it requires from him, and with an extra passing option up top, it opens up the game more for him.
In terms of having an engine, having top speed, being able to cover a lot of ground, being mobile/agile -- I think Frimpong is as good as it gets more or less. He is just world class. He is back defending as a RB, and when his team has the ball, he is up looking to break an offside trap in the blink of an eye. With these type of players, you can't really go wrong. And its not like Frimpong doesn't seem to have his head screwed on right, he competes hard and is of course an extremely hard worker. He is also very gifted on the ball. I don't think he is like a top 5 RB in the world or anything -- he got a lot left to fine tune so to speak. But he do have that potential. Its kind of like with a Kyle Walker, if you are dominant physically, so much is won.
I think he will be priced accordingly. At times, it has seen like a few million has been added to his price every time we have been mentioned -- but I think its fair for Leverkusen to ask for around 60m. He is that talented.
50m from the budget, 85m left.
Kim Min-Jae
We obviously seem to have a lot of respect for how hard it is to get transfers done -- since we go for players that really are available. KMJ of course fit that bill due to his release clause.
I was first really high on KMJ. Probably not for the best reasons, but just getting a South Korean player is huge for our marketing ability. Long-term, that is not irrelevant for this club. As a dad with three kids between 8-15 y/o in Sweden -- I can attest to how not a single kid in this country idols Manchester United, if they aren't forced to by their dad. Its Liverpool and City, or perhaps Arsenal, and I am sure that is how it is in the rest of the world too. You can't let this decide your transfer strategy -- of course -- but if we get a SK player or a US player, it is a welcomed bonus for sure.
When I've watched him closely over the season -- I do get a little worried. I saw someone call him a South Korean Harry Maguire, and in a way, I definitely get what they mean. Does he make spectacular defensive plays? Yes. No doubt. He is definitely world class at playing a high defense, nobody can dispute that. His passing stats are also fantastic. But if you watch him and expect a ball playing defender who can dictate the tempo for his team -- like Timber and Martinez did for ETH in Ajax -- you have to look long and hard. When playing for Napoli in the CL -- against the top European teams -- he plays a very simple, fast, straight forward passing game. When he plays for Napoli against lesser teams in the Serie A, he expands his register a little, but only to making the odd longer cross switching sides of the possession. And when playing for South Korea, he is almost robotic in the sense that he every time he gets the ball, just hands it over to a midfielder. The World Cup games are available online to watch. I re-watched the game against Portugal. During 90 minutes -- he does not make one single pass or play with the ball, that doesn't consist of just looking up and immediately passing to a midfielder getting open in front of him. Being able to dictate the tempo of the play and unlock a defense is A and O for CBs in ETH's game.
This does genuinely worry me. But if ETH signs off on this signing, I am of course fine with it. If there are any indication that our management might go for a player without ETH's full support, I would be really scared about signing him.
55m from the budget, 30m left.
Back-up GK
If ETH wants to replace DDG this summer, he would have my full support. I don't think he will, I think he will opt to spend the money elsewhere.
But get a good young GK that at least can push DDG, and you never know, all of a sudden a kid like that takes it and runs with it.
15-20m from the budget, 10-15m left.
Academy players
We have been linked to a few kids lately, definitely think that we must keep filling the academy with younger players, in the 5-15m range. Get one or a few kids in with whatever is left after the above. I wouldn't mind if 30-40m was spent on kids with the aim of them contributing 3-4 years down the line.
LINE-UP
This leaves us with something like this.
Starting XI
------------------------------Kolo Muani------------------------------
Rashford---------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------Bruno------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------Antony
------------------Mount------------------------------------------------
------------------------------Casemiro--------------------------------
Shaw------------Martinez--------Varane----------------AWB
---------------------------------DDG--------------------------------------
Back-up XI
-----------------------------Vitor Roque------------------------------
Garnacho----------------------------------------------------Amad
------------------------------Sancho------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------Eriksen---------------------
----------------------Rice-------------------------------------------------
Malacia-----------KMJ--------Lindelof----------Frimpong
--------------------------------NGK--------------------------------------
With both Rice and Casemiro playing against the top opponents and always one of them being on the pitch if possible. I like it!
SELLING -- creating space to buy
Players sold because they are not a fit
Dean Henderson -- 25m //No explanation needed. I am a bit doubtful about how much we will get for him. Someone leaked a report that Nottingham was willing to pay 30m. Wasn't Forrest that leaked that. Why would we leak it? Think we just as well could get 10-15m. But I wouldn't rule out 25m either.
Scott McTominay -- 20m //There will certainly be interest in McTominay. For teams to go out and spend more than 20m, they will want to get someone that can be a core player. Sure there are exceptions, but a team like WH pays 22m for a Thilo Kehrer from PSG, those prices seldomly lands at 35-40m.
Harry Maguire -- 15m //Regardless of what has been reported, I can't see us getting that much for Maguire. He is overpaid by -- at least -- 5m per year for 3 more seasons, at 200k a week. That is 15m. Do you get 30m for a Maguire on a fair contract? If so, you get 15m on the contract he is on now. In addition -- Harry Maguire is in a position to pick the club he is going to. Sure there could be a couple of attractive teams for him that are interested in him. But more likely than not, Harry will let the club know that if he is going, its to "team X". That team won't chomp at the bits in any negotiations. They will be like, ah, ok, we can loan him if you pay his salary. We "should" of course be able to get a fee for him, but all I am saying is that there are questionmarks and we won't be in a good negotiations position.
This opens up a lot of FFP space for the transfer window, i.e. improves our earnings with almost 63m for the period we will be judged for after this summer. We today has about 100m to spend in relation to the FFP, and with these sales we could spend up towards 250-300m (counting on three players at 100m per and 200k a week). But from my point of view, that will not be enough. 140m would go to Mount and Rice. In addition, we need at a minimum a GK, a CB and 2 strikers.
How much can be saved on the dead wood?
So how about Telles and Bailly? Martial? DVB?
DVB -- Loan //First of all, I don't think we can sell Donny this summer. He has -- three -- years left on his contract. That is a 15m commitment. With his recent injury history, its buyer beware. I am sure someone will take a loan with a mandatory option to buy if Donny for example plays the majority of the games, and those conditions could be decent. But its not time to sell
Telles, Bailly and Martial -- 0
If we could sell these guys for a fiver each, we would save 22.4m in accordance with the below. I don't think we can do that. There will be loans, selling team's selling contribution etc. But I think we could save costs of 10m next season be getting rid of them. This wouldn't be enough either.
Players sold to raise cash
Hence, I think we need to sell players, just to raise cash. Remember that selling a player doesn't increase our FFP room on a dollar for dollar basis. Lets look at Victor Lindelöf for example.
Today, he impacts our finance in the following way. Having renewed his contract during its term, app. 3.1m of his signing from Benfica remains on our balance sheet for one more year. In addition, his salary is 6m per. Lindelof is just 28 y/o, and should have his best 4-5 years in front of him. We should be able to get about 25-30m for him. So if we sell him for 25m, we won't pay his salary of 6,2m, we won't amortize his contact with 3.1m per season, and the net result on his sale would be 25m - 3.1m = 21.9m. In total, this improves our earnings for next season with 31.24m. I.e. enough to buy a player for 100m and giving him a 5 year contract at 200k a week.
The players who can come into question here are from my point of view: Sancho, Fred (could perhaps fit in above), AWB, Lindelöf and Dalot.
Why? I think it comes down to this.
-Sancho has no place on the team. He was good against Chelsea -- but that was the most open game of the Premier League season -- de facto (i.e. highest xG forr a game). ETH will 100% prefer Antony at RW, always. At LW, we have Rash and Garncho. He is definitely weak for a central midfielder, even in Bruno's role. And he is massively expensive at 350k a week and with yearly amortizations of 17m (i.e. he costs more than 35m per season). Should he get another season? Sure, that argument can be made. Not saying that he will be sold, people knowing more than me seems to expect that he is staying.
-Fred? Who is buying him? Like sure, all of a sudden a PSG will want him. Fred is super well liked, very experienced, team loyal. But...
-Lindelof? He and Varane are about the same age. Both will fall off a cliff at about the same time in 4-5 years time. Lindelof isn't a huge contributor when Varane is out. Lindelof might want to play more than he will being behind Varane. At the same time, he will play quite much behind Varane. He has been "good enough" for a No 3-4 CB. So you never know. But I think very "attractive" clubs would come knocking on the door for him. He could probably pick between teams like Inter Milan, Athletico Madrid. Those leagues aren't as tough as the PL. I would bet on him staying, the comment about looking forward to CL football at OT didn't sound like someone who is halfway out the door.
-AWB? In a way, it seems like the lazy option. But with that said -- I don't think ETH is perfectly satisfied with his RBs. From my viewpoint, AWB lacks a lot of what ETH want in a footballer in that role, but he got so much else in his game that makes up for much of it. I've noticed that ETH generally have used Dalot against better teams and AWB against worse teams -- which could seem a bit contra intuitive, but I think it comes from Dalot being a better passer and ETH hence option for him for him because he knows that there will be a huge challenge in the possession game, while AWB will dominate wingers with lesser physical capabilities. Dalot on the other hand has the raw outlines of everything ETH wants in a wing back. He can defend. He isn't bad in the air. He can shift sides of the play. He is good when he inverts into the middle of the pitch. Dalot could definitely have the touch necessary to operate at CM at a higher level. He is calm and collected and can have a strategic approach to the game. But the big downside with Dalot -- that isn't talked about all that much -- is that the game is a bit fast for his thought process at times. If we play a better team, it is very important that you are able to early step up and take control of the game. You must chest up and play yourself out of the initial pressure, set the tone. Classic Dalot is to start with 3 brain farts the first 5 minutes.
AWB has clearly overtaken Dalot lately. Does Dalot want to play second fiddle to AWB? He only has a year left on his contract. What are his contract demands? Dalot is a regular of the Portuguese national team. He has proven that he can play for both AC Milan and Manchester United. Just theoretically, if he opts to leave this summer, he wouldn't take three steps down the latter in terms of attractiveness of the club he plays for. Barca is in trouble financially and can surely not sign him, but if they didn't have their hands tied behind their backs, I think they definitely would have considered it. If we sell Dalot, I think he goes and plays for a top 10-15 club in the world. On the other hand, perhaps AWB want to get back to London. You never know.
This is how we are impacted financially if we sell either:
Fred alone isn't enough. I think we need to sell one of Sancho, AWB, Lindelof and Dalot -- and even if it seems far fetched, I would actually bet on one of them being sold. Sancho's profit for our licensing after next season isn't major, but the year after that he gives us a 35m boost which is massive. Who would it be? I mean, its anyone's guess. I would perhaps rank them in order of likelihood of getting sold in the following order, but its just guesswork: Sancho, Dalot, AWB and Lindelof. I.e., I know many are very certain of Sancho staying another year, but I am not so sure. Its hard to guess, but I do think one of them is getting sold.
PLAYERS IN
What is the budget?
If we make the above sales (say that one of AWB/Dalot goes), we have a budget of app. 400m (we could spend about 500m and pass the 24' licensing, but then we would probably get in trouble in the 25' licensing). Definitely enough for a new owner to make somewhat of a big splash on the transfer market and reshape the squad for ETH.
What to make of Mason Mount and Declan Rice?
This is not two signings I would have argued for two weeks ago, but thinking it true, I do think that the reports make sense and I am not against it. First of all, going forward, we can basically afford a squad consisting of (spread over time) (a) 2 signings of 150m players, (b) 7 signings of 100m players, (c) 4 signings of 75m players, (d) 4 signings of 50m players, (e) 1 signing of a 15m player and (f) 4 academy players or free signings, as set out below. That gives us a squad cost of 504m, which is 70% of 720, which is what our revenue should be in a couple of years time (see below the breakdown of how 504m can be diveded over 22 players).
These guys are 24 y/o. In 4 years time, they will be in their absolute prime, and cost wise -- Mason Mount will be one of the cheaper players in the squad (top 13-16 perhaps) and Rice will be just around 10-12. Can we expect them to deliver at that level? Honestly, I think this makes them fairly low risks signings.
I see Declan Rice as someone who attribute wise tics a lot of boxes, but I am scared about the length of the transition period he will need to adopt to ETH football. But at the same time, he doesn't have to step in and fill Casemiro's shoes from day 1. He can play next to Casemiro against the top teams, and definitely help really well if we have to revert to playing more of a counter attack/defensive style even if that is not what we want. And he can also relief Casemiro against a little less capable teams (I see Bruno stepping down in the build up phase while Rice holds the fort physically). I also love that Rice is as strong in the air as he is -- because it enables us to carry CBs that are good on the ball without becoming too weak on set pieces.
Mason Mount is a quality player, that I don't think "improves" us in any significant way. Hence, two weeks ago I would have said never in a life time if asked if we should go for him. But when you break it down, I think that you also can look at it from this perspective. Against 75% of our opponents, Mason Mount is a contributing factor. His quality is higher than the competition's, against the non top 6 teams, and he will contribute with his hard work for sure. Against 25% of the opponents, I think we need more. But at £55m per, you know what, I take that. In other words, if we get Mount to play the minutes Sabitzer and Donny has played for us this year and some of McT and Fred's minutes -- he is a big upgrade, at an OK cost, that should have 7-8 years left in him.
And in addition, I do think that Mount has some potential. He could take another step. The kid is not afraid of hard work, and that is what it takes. Chelsea has not done him right, love the revenge factor. I like it.
I am counting on that these two will cost us app. 135m. 265m left.
What striker would I deem to be a success signing?
Assuming that Kane is not an option (not against me), I don't think we can get Victor Oshimen from Napoli. They can sell him next season just as well. They will want to keep the gang together, of course. If Oshimen goes, and KMJ goes, why should Kvaradonna stay? KMJ might not be stopped, but Napoli controls the rest. And if they tell Oshimen that he can moan all he wants, they will keep him one more year and then sell him next summer -- what is he going to do? Sit out the rest of the season? Its in Napoli's hands. If I was the boss of Napoli, I would play hard ball. If they just lose KMJ, they should win the Serie A again pretty comfortably and should challenge for the CL next season, at least go fairly deep.
That basically leaves Ramos, Kolo Muani, Vlahovic and a long shot in Sesko (who probably isn't for sale). I know that we are supposed to be focusing on Ramos -- and that is perfectly possible. But if I was betting on this -- I would put my money on Randal Kolo Muani.
Why? I would love to get Goncalo Ramos too. But he is just 21 y/o, and nobody can be 100% that he is ready for the PL. The kid has never faced any adversity in his career. He is a bit of a finesse striker (who does get involved physically for sure, but...). If things aren't going his way -- is he the type who fights through it? He does have quality, definitely. Can finish with both feet, good in the air, great first touch. And I wouldn't rule out that a scout could see that he should be a top priority because he has potential to not only become a high quality European striker, but like a Benzema type of performer who can carry a top European team. But I don't quite see that.
Randal Kolo Muani does however got that pure work horse side to his game. He is a great fit for ETH's style. He is really good on the press. He will come deep to get the ball. He is very strong individually, and defenders -- at any level -- have to be very focused and work really hard because if you just give him a little bit of space he will blow past you and go for the net. He is great on the counter attack, but also good in the air at 6'2. With that said, there are some question marks about his finishing ability, and while his dribbling ability is great -- how good is his first touch really?
Just like Mason Mount and Declan Rice, Randal Kolo Muani is not just the same age as them -- he is just as safe a bet too. It doesn't matter if you play Luton Town at home or Manchester City away -- you won't mind writing RKM name on the sheet with the starting XI. Is RKM someone that brings gives us an edge at the No 9 spot compared to City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Barca, Real, Bayern and co? He also has a bit of potential, but I wouldn't bet on him giving us an edge on a consistent basis over what does teams can put on the pitch at that position.. But with that said -- if he costs 100m -- I think we will get our money's worth. The No 9 position is important, even if RKM isn't going to be the one that leads us to the promise land -- he is a great option to put on with 20 minutes left. He is a great option to fill in for someone who is injured, no matter who the opponent is. He can also play as a LW/inside forward like Rashford. I do not think it is a signing we ever would regret. We do regret the Sancho signing right now, for example. Why? You don't know what you will get. Not a good option to put on in all situations. A bit up and down. Needs a bigger role to thrive. RKM is much more versatile/low maintenance.
100m for Randal Kolo Muani, that leaves us with 165m.
But one striker isn't enough, we need two!?
Definitely, and I can definitely see some logic in going after both RKM and GR. But I don't think we can pull that off. And remember, Benfica has just this season alone sold players for 262m. They don't have to sell Ramos. Its easily worth it for them to keep it around, worst case they get 60m for him instead of 100m, but its a fans owned club who doesn't exist to make a profit. Maybe he can force his way out, but I don't think they will sell him.
Looking at ETH's track record at Ajax, he bought a lot of South American players -- with great great success. Antony, Lisandro Martinez, Edson Alvarez And its a market we are said to want to get into more.
There are many options. We could tap into the striker rental market again, get someone like Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting. There are younger options around Europe. We could loan someone with an option to buy, by loaning a player to us, a club put that player in pretty big shopping window. We know that ETH contacted Brian Brobbery just a few months ago.
But one guy that sticks out from my point of view is Vitor Roque. Him signing with Barca has inofficially been a "done deal" for a long time. They want him, and if Barca comes knocking, why not take it. But Barca can't even resign their own top young players who are out of contract this summer. In addition, Messi has decided to move back there. Reports have Barca being forced to reduce their wage bill with 200m, that is selling 20 players making 200k a week... According to reports, we have reached out to him:
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He is just 18 y/o, but has already played 56 games already across the top Brazilian league, the Brazilian Cup and the South American Champions League, scoring 15 goals. He has also played 25 minutes for the mens national team and been a regular and top scorer for their U20 national team.
I don't know if it makes sense to bring in a young Brazilian striker as a back-up No 9 for us. How good is this kid really? How long will he need to adopt to the European game and the Premier League? But even if its not the safest, best, business -- I just think it tics many boxes by being a very -- exciting -- signing. We would all be giddy about signing an 18 y/o Brazilian striker, right? He seems to be a very likable player type, the classic low center of gravity, very technical, exciting, hard working striker. Seems to be a bit slow though, but a good finisher. His price is said to be around 40-50m -- but I would bet that a big chunk of that would be "add-ons". The real cost -- if he never reach any of the milestones -- is probably closer to 20m.
In addition, I think that it is obvious that ETH is wrestling a little bit with the notion of having such an offensive forward type as Rashford at LW. Ideally, he wants his wingers to be able to come deep and get the ball more, exactly like Pep is using Grealish and Bernado Silva. Pep's wingers often comes so deep that they only have 2 or 3 players between them and their own goal in the build up phase. That is a significant key in becoming as dominant in possession as they are, those wingers are very hard to mark and pressure as passing options when they start from a higher point up the pitch and moves back towards the defenders on the ball. Hence, I don't think ETH will mind keep experimenting with Rashford at striker from time to time. Many players starts on the wing and grows into the striker position over time (like Ronaldo). Wouldn't at all be surprised to see Rashford as a striker between say 28 and 32 y/o. So even if we of course must get two strikers -- I am not so sure that our second striker must be able to come in and play against all possible opponents if the top option is injured.
Say 30m from this years budget, 135m left.
If a RB is sold, we need a RB, and that RB would be Jeremie Frimpong
Jeremie Frimpong tics a lot of boxes. Having spent like 8 years in City's academy, he is a "homegrown player" under the PL rules. The kid has a ton of potential. I watched Leverkusen's last game of the Bundesliga earlier today. They got a red card after 10 minutes. Its a ball playing team coached by Xabi Alonso. They kept playing an offensive style of football, and Frimpong was all over the pitch. They lost 3-0, but the shots were actually 12-11 and the possession was even. Frimpong should have had a goal (hit the inside of the post on a break away) and an assist, but the marginals just weren't on their side. They also played with a back 4 for the first time in a while. I think JF fits better with a back 4, he can handle the extra mileage it requires from him, and with an extra passing option up top, it opens up the game more for him.
In terms of having an engine, having top speed, being able to cover a lot of ground, being mobile/agile -- I think Frimpong is as good as it gets more or less. He is just world class. He is back defending as a RB, and when his team has the ball, he is up looking to break an offside trap in the blink of an eye. With these type of players, you can't really go wrong. And its not like Frimpong doesn't seem to have his head screwed on right, he competes hard and is of course an extremely hard worker. He is also very gifted on the ball. I don't think he is like a top 5 RB in the world or anything -- he got a lot left to fine tune so to speak. But he do have that potential. Its kind of like with a Kyle Walker, if you are dominant physically, so much is won.
I think he will be priced accordingly. At times, it has seen like a few million has been added to his price every time we have been mentioned -- but I think its fair for Leverkusen to ask for around 60m. He is that talented.
50m from the budget, 85m left.
Kim Min-Jae
We obviously seem to have a lot of respect for how hard it is to get transfers done -- since we go for players that really are available. KMJ of course fit that bill due to his release clause.
I was first really high on KMJ. Probably not for the best reasons, but just getting a South Korean player is huge for our marketing ability. Long-term, that is not irrelevant for this club. As a dad with three kids between 8-15 y/o in Sweden -- I can attest to how not a single kid in this country idols Manchester United, if they aren't forced to by their dad. Its Liverpool and City, or perhaps Arsenal, and I am sure that is how it is in the rest of the world too. You can't let this decide your transfer strategy -- of course -- but if we get a SK player or a US player, it is a welcomed bonus for sure.
When I've watched him closely over the season -- I do get a little worried. I saw someone call him a South Korean Harry Maguire, and in a way, I definitely get what they mean. Does he make spectacular defensive plays? Yes. No doubt. He is definitely world class at playing a high defense, nobody can dispute that. His passing stats are also fantastic. But if you watch him and expect a ball playing defender who can dictate the tempo for his team -- like Timber and Martinez did for ETH in Ajax -- you have to look long and hard. When playing for Napoli in the CL -- against the top European teams -- he plays a very simple, fast, straight forward passing game. When he plays for Napoli against lesser teams in the Serie A, he expands his register a little, but only to making the odd longer cross switching sides of the possession. And when playing for South Korea, he is almost robotic in the sense that he every time he gets the ball, just hands it over to a midfielder. The World Cup games are available online to watch. I re-watched the game against Portugal. During 90 minutes -- he does not make one single pass or play with the ball, that doesn't consist of just looking up and immediately passing to a midfielder getting open in front of him. Being able to dictate the tempo of the play and unlock a defense is A and O for CBs in ETH's game.
This does genuinely worry me. But if ETH signs off on this signing, I am of course fine with it. If there are any indication that our management might go for a player without ETH's full support, I would be really scared about signing him.
55m from the budget, 30m left.
Back-up GK
If ETH wants to replace DDG this summer, he would have my full support. I don't think he will, I think he will opt to spend the money elsewhere.
But get a good young GK that at least can push DDG, and you never know, all of a sudden a kid like that takes it and runs with it.
15-20m from the budget, 10-15m left.
Academy players
We have been linked to a few kids lately, definitely think that we must keep filling the academy with younger players, in the 5-15m range. Get one or a few kids in with whatever is left after the above. I wouldn't mind if 30-40m was spent on kids with the aim of them contributing 3-4 years down the line.
LINE-UP
This leaves us with something like this.
Starting XI
------------------------------Kolo Muani------------------------------
Rashford---------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------Bruno------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------Antony
------------------Mount------------------------------------------------
------------------------------Casemiro--------------------------------
Shaw------------Martinez--------Varane----------------AWB
---------------------------------DDG--------------------------------------
Back-up XI
-----------------------------Vitor Roque------------------------------
Garnacho----------------------------------------------------Amad
------------------------------Sancho------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------Eriksen---------------------
----------------------Rice-------------------------------------------------
Malacia-----------KMJ--------Lindelof----------Frimpong
--------------------------------NGK--------------------------------------
With both Rice and Casemiro playing against the top opponents and always one of them being on the pitch if possible. I like it!
Anything other than six quality signings would be yet another failure to adequately address the gaping holes that still exist in the first team.
Goalkeeper
Right back
Centre back
Midfielder (Casemiro cover)
Midfielder (Eriksen upgrade)
Striker
Bring in funds by selling Wan-Bissaka, Maguire, McTominay and Henderson (plus some of the the other hangers’ on) and once and for all get ahead instead of playing catch up. Ten Hag needs backing.
Goalkeeper
Right back
Centre back
Midfielder (Casemiro cover)
Midfielder (Eriksen upgrade)
Striker
Bring in funds by selling Wan-Bissaka, Maguire, McTominay and Henderson (plus some of the the other hangers’ on) and once and for all get ahead instead of playing catch up. Ten Hag needs backing.
For me, just two ins-
1. CM (to replace Eriksen in a years time)
2. CF (backup or play alongside AM & MR).
Other ins will be bonus.
1. CM (to replace Eriksen in a years time)
2. CF (backup or play alongside AM & MR).
Other ins will be bonus.
Need significantly more than that
Great piece of analysis, and I like all the suggested purchases. I wouldn't be surprised to see someone like Rabiot come in to add extra cover and experience in the middle of the park, although maybe we don't need it if we get both Rice and Mount. Would love us to splash the "kids budget" on Gift Orban - looks a real character. I would sell Amad and Pellistri now whilst we can get decent money for them, and keep unnamed on the RW. We should also be keeping tabs on Ferguson, Hojlund and Sesko, and keeping the lines of communication open, in case one of Muani, Roque or Orban does not work out.The general outlines of the transfer strategy is seemingly taking shape. If a new owner will come in and want to make a splash -- which it seems like our management are planning on -- I could see the logic behind a transfer window like this:
SELLING -- creating space to buy
Players sold because they are not a fit
Dean Henderson -- 25m //No explanation needed. I am a bit doubtful about how much we will get for him. Someone leaked a report that Nottingham was willing to pay 30m. Wasn't Forrest that leaked that. Why would we leak it? Think we just as well could get 10-15m. But I wouldn't rule out 25m either.
Scott McTominay -- 20m //There will certainly be interest in McTominay. For teams to go out and spend more than 20m, they will want to get someone that can be a core player. Sure there are exceptions, but a team like WH pays 22m for a Thilo Kehrer from PSG, those prices seldomly lands at 35-40m.
Harry Maguire -- 15m //Regardless of what has been reported, I can't see us getting that much for Maguire. He is overpaid by -- at least -- 5m per year for 3 more seasons, at 200k a week. That is 15m. Do you get 30m for a Maguire on a fair contract? If so, you get 15m on the contract he is on now. In addition -- Harry Maguire is in a position to pick the club he is going to. Sure there could be a couple of attractive teams for him that are interested in him. But more likely than not, Harry will let the club know that if he is going, its to "team X". That team won't chomp at the bits in any negotiations. They will be like, ah, ok, we can loan him if you pay his salary. We "should" of course be able to get a fee for him, but all I am saying is that there are questionmarks and we won't be in a good negotiations position.
This opens up a lot of FFP space for the transfer window, i.e. improves our earnings with almost 63m for the period we will be judged for after this summer. We today has about 100m to spend in relation to the FFP, and with these sales we could spend up towards 250-300m (counting on three players at 100m per and 200k a week). But from my point of view, that will not be enough. 140m would go to Mount and Rice. In addition, we need at a minimum a GK, a CB and 2 strikers.
How much can be saved on the dead wood?
So how about Telles and Bailly? Martial? DVB?
DVB -- Loan //First of all, I don't think we can sell Donny this summer. He has -- three -- years left on his contract. That is a 15m commitment. With his recent injury history, its buyer beware. I am sure someone will take a loan with a mandatory option to buy if Donny for example plays the majority of the games, and those conditions could be decent. But its not time to sell
Telles, Bailly and Martial -- 0
If we could sell these guys for a fiver each, we would save 22.4m in accordance with the below. I don't think we can do that. There will be loans, selling team's selling contribution etc. But I think we could save costs of 10m next season be getting rid of them. This wouldn't be enough either.
Players sold to raise cash
Hence, I think we need to sell players, just to raise cash. Remember that selling a player doesn't increase our FFP room on a dollar for dollar basis. Lets look at Victor Lindelöf for example.
Today, he impacts our finance in the following way. Having renewed his contract during its term, app. 3.1m of his signing from Benfica remains on our balance sheet for one more year. In addition, his salary is 6m per. Lindelof is just 28 y/o, and should have his best 4-5 years in front of him. We should be able to get about 25-30m for him. So if we sell him for 25m, we won't pay his salary of 6,2m, we won't amortize his contact with 3.1m per season, and the net result on his sale would be 25m - 3.1m = 21.9m. In total, this improves our earnings for next season with 31.24m. I.e. enough to buy a player for 100m and giving him a 5 year contract at 200k a week.
The players who can come into question here are from my point of view: Sancho, Fred (could perhaps fit in above), AWB, Lindelöf and Dalot.
Why? I think it comes down to this.
-Sancho has no place on the team. He was good against Chelsea -- but that was the most open game of the Premier League season -- de facto (i.e. highest xG forr a game). ETH will 100% prefer Antony at RW, always. At LW, we have Rash and Garncho. He is definitely weak for a central midfielder, even in Bruno's role. And he is massively expensive at 350k a week and with yearly amortizations of 17m (i.e. he costs more than 35m per season). Should he get another season? Sure, that argument can be made. Not saying that he will be sold, people knowing more than me seems to expect that he is staying.
-Fred? Who is buying him? Like sure, all of a sudden a PSG will want him. Fred is super well liked, very experienced, team loyal. But...
-Lindelof? He and Varane are about the same age. Both will fall off a cliff at about the same time in 4-5 years time. Lindelof isn't a huge contributor when Varane is out. Lindelof might want to play more than he will being behind Varane. At the same time, he will play quite much behind Varane. He has been "good enough" for a No 3-4 CB. So you never know. But I think very "attractive" clubs would come knocking on the door for him. He could probably pick between teams like Inter Milan, Athletico Madrid. Those leagues aren't as tough as the PL. I would bet on him staying, the comment about looking forward to CL football at OT didn't sound like someone who is halfway out the door.
-AWB? In a way, it seems like the lazy option. But with that said -- I don't think ETH is perfectly satisfied with his RBs. From my viewpoint, AWB lacks a lot of what ETH want in a footballer in that role, but he got so much else in his game that makes up for much of it. I've noticed that ETH generally have used Dalot against better teams and AWB against worse teams -- which could seem a bit contra intuitive, but I think it comes from Dalot being a better passer and ETH hence option for him for him because he knows that there will be a huge challenge in the possession game, while AWB will dominate wingers with lesser physical capabilities. Dalot on the other hand has the raw outlines of everything ETH wants in a wing back. He can defend. He isn't bad in the air. He can shift sides of the play. He is good when he inverts into the middle of the pitch. Dalot could definitely have the touch necessary to operate at CM at a higher level. He is calm and collected and can have a strategic approach to the game. But the big downside with Dalot -- that isn't talked about all that much -- is that the game is a bit fast for his thought process at times. If we play a better team, it is very important that you are able to early step up and take control of the game. You must chest up and play yourself out of the initial pressure, set the tone. Classic Dalot is to start with 3 brain farts the first 5 minutes.
AWB has clearly overtaken Dalot lately. Does Dalot want to play second fiddle to AWB? He only has a year left on his contract. What are his contract demands? Dalot is a regular of the Portuguese national team. He has proven that he can play for both AC Milan and Manchester United. Just theoretically, if he opts to leave this summer, he wouldn't take three steps down the latter in terms of attractiveness of the club he plays for. Barca is in trouble financially and can surely not sign him, but if they didn't have their hands tied behind their backs, I think they definitely would have considered it. If we sell Dalot, I think he goes and plays for a top 10-15 club in the world. On the other hand, perhaps AWB want to get back to London. You never know.
This is how we are impacted financially if we sell either:
Fred alone isn't enough. I think we need to sell one of Sancho, AWB, Lindelof and Dalot -- and even if it seems far fetched, I would actually bet on one of them being sold. Sancho's profit for our licensing after next season isn't major, but the year after that he gives us a 35m boost which is massive. Who would it be? I mean, its anyone's guess. I would perhaps rank them in order of likelihood of getting sold in the following order, but its just guesswork: Sancho, Dalot, AWB and Lindelof. I.e., I know many are very certain of Sancho staying another year, but I am not so sure. Its hard to guess, but I do think one of them is getting sold.
PLAYERS IN
What is the budget?
If we make the above sales (say that one of AWB/Dalot goes), we have a budget of app. 400m (we could spend about 500m and pass the 24' licensing, but then we would probably get in trouble in the 25' licensing). Definitely enough for a new owner to make somewhat of a big splash on the transfer market and reshape the squad for ETH.
What to make of Mason Mount and Declan Rice?
This is not two signings I would have argued for two weeks ago, but thinking it true, I do think that the reports make sense and I am not against it. First of all, going forward, we can basically afford a squad consisting of (spread over time) (a) 2 signings of 150m players, (b) 7 signings of 100m players, (c) 4 signings of 75m players, (d) 4 signings of 50m players, (e) 1 signing of a 15m player and (f) 4 academy players or free signings, as set out below. That gives us a squad cost of 504m, which is 70% of 720, which is what our revenue should be in a couple of years time (see below the breakdown of how 504m can be diveded over 22 players).
These guys are 24 y/o. In 4 years time, they will be in their absolute prime, and cost wise -- Mason Mount will be one of the cheaper players in the squad (top 13-16 perhaps) and Rice will be just around 10-12. Can we expect them to deliver at that level? Honestly, I think this makes them fairly low risks signings.
I see Declan Rice as someone who attribute wise tics a lot of boxes, but I am scared about the length of the transition period he will need to adopt to ETH football. But at the same time, he doesn't have to step in and fill Casemiro's shoes from day 1. He can play next to Casemiro against the top teams, and definitely help really well if we have to revert to playing more of a counter attack/defensive style even if that is not what we want. And he can also relief Casemiro against a little less capable teams (I see Bruno stepping down in the build up phase while Rice holds the fort physically). I also love that Rice is as strong in the air as he is -- because it enables us to carry CBs that are good on the ball without becoming too weak on set pieces.
Mason Mount is a quality player, that I don't think "improves" us in any significant way. Hence, two weeks ago I would have said never in a life time if asked if we should go for him. But when you break it down, I think that you also can look at it from this perspective. Against 75% of our opponents, Mason Mount is a contributing factor. His quality is higher than the competition's, against the non top 6 teams, and he will contribute with his hard work for sure. Against 25% of the opponents, I think we need more. But at £55m per, you know what, I take that. In other words, if we get Mount to play the minutes Sabitzer and Donny has played for us this year and some of McT and Fred's minutes -- he is a big upgrade, at an OK cost, that should have 7-8 years left in him.
And in addition, I do think that Mount has some potential. He could take another step. The kid is not afraid of hard work, and that is what it takes. Chelsea has not done him right, love the revenge factor. I like it.
I am counting on that these two will cost us app. 135m. 265m left.
What striker would I deem to be a success signing?
Assuming that Kane is not an option (not against me), I don't think we can get Victor Oshimen from Napoli. They can sell him next season just as well. They will want to keep the gang together, of course. If Oshimen goes, and KMJ goes, why should Kvaradonna stay? KMJ might not be stopped, but Napoli controls the rest. And if they tell Oshimen that he can moan all he wants, they will keep him one more year and then sell him next summer -- what is he going to do? Sit out the rest of the season? Its in Napoli's hands. If I was the boss of Napoli, I would play hard ball. If they just lose KMJ, they should win the Serie A again pretty comfortably and should challenge for the CL next season, at least go fairly deep.
That basically leaves Ramos, Kolo Muani, Vlahovic and a long shot in Sesko (who probably isn't for sale). I know that we are supposed to be focusing on Ramos -- and that is perfectly possible. But if I was betting on this -- I would put my money on Randal Kolo Muani.
Why? I would love to get Goncalo Ramos too. But he is just 21 y/o, and nobody can be 100% that he is ready for the PL. The kid has never faced any adversity in his career. He is a bit of a finesse striker (who does get involved physically for sure, but...). If things aren't going his way -- is he the type who fights through it? He does have quality, definitely. Can finish with both feet, good in the air, great first touch. And I wouldn't rule out that a scout could see that he should be a top priority because he has potential to not only become a high quality European striker, but like a Benzema type of performer who can carry a top European team. But I don't quite see that.
Randal Kolo Muani does however got that pure work horse side to his game. He is a great fit for ETH's style. He is really good on the press. He will come deep to get the ball. He is very strong individually, and defenders -- at any level -- have to be very focused and work really hard because if you just give him a little bit of space he will blow past you and go for the net. He is great on the counter attack, but also good in the air at 6'2. With that said, there are some question marks about his finishing ability, and while his dribbling ability is great -- how good is his first touch really?
Just like Mason Mount and Declan Rice, Randal Kolo Muani is not just the same age as them -- he is just as safe a bet too. It doesn't matter if you play Luton Town at home or Manchester City away -- you won't mind writing RKM name on the sheet with the starting XI. Is RKM someone that brings gives us an edge at the No 9 spot compared to City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Barca, Real, Bayern and co? He also has a bit of potential, but I wouldn't bet on him giving us an edge on a consistent basis over what does teams can put on the pitch at that position.. But with that said -- if he costs 100m -- I think we will get our money's worth. The No 9 position is important, even if RKM isn't going to be the one that leads us to the promise land -- he is a great option to put on with 20 minutes left. He is a great option to fill in for someone who is injured, no matter who the opponent is. He can also play as a LW/inside forward like Rashford. I do not think it is a signing we ever would regret. We do regret the Sancho signing right now, for example. Why? You don't know what you will get. Not a good option to put on in all situations. A bit up and down. Needs a bigger role to thrive. RKM is much more versatile/low maintenance.
100m for Randal Kolo Muani, that leaves us with 165m.
But one striker isn't enough, we need two!?
Definitely, and I can definitely see some logic in going after both RKM and GR. But I don't think we can pull that off. And remember, Benfica has just this season alone sold players for 262m. They don't have to sell Ramos. Its easily worth it for them to keep it around, worst case they get 60m for him instead of 100m, but its a fans owned club who doesn't exist to make a profit. Maybe he can force his way out, but I don't think they will sell him.
Looking at ETH's track record at Ajax, he bought a lot of South American players -- with great great success. Antony, Lisandro Martinez, Edson Alvarez And its a market we are said to want to get into more.
There are many options. We could tap into the striker rental market again, get someone like Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting. There are younger options around Europe. We could loan someone with an option to buy, by loaning a player to us, a club put that player in pretty big shopping window. We know that ETH contacted Brian Brobbery just a few months ago.
But one guy that sticks out from my point of view is Vitor Roque. Him signing with Barca has inofficially been a "done deal" for a long time. They want him, and if Barca comes knocking, why not take it. But Barca can't even resign their own top young players who are out of contract this summer. In addition, Messi has decided to move back there. Reports have Barca being forced to reduce their wage bill with 200m, that is selling 20 players making 200k a week... According to reports, we have reached out to him:
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He is just 18 y/o, but has already played 56 games already across the top Brazilian league, the Brazilian Cup and the South American Champions League, scoring 15 goals. He has also played 25 minutes for the mens national team and been a regular and top scorer for their U20 national team.
I don't know if it makes sense to bring in a young Brazilian striker as a back-up No 9 for us. How good is this kid really? How long will he need to adopt to the European game and the Premier League? But even if its not the safest, best, business -- I just think it tics many boxes by being a very -- exciting -- signing. We would all be giddy about signing an 18 y/o Brazilian striker, right? He seems to be a very likable player type, the classic low center of gravity, very technical, exciting, hard working striker. Seems to be a bit slow though, but a good finisher. His price is said to be around 40-50m -- but I would bet that a big chunk of that would be "add-ons". The real cost -- if he never reach any of the milestones -- is probably closer to 20m.
In addition, I think that it is obvious that ETH is wrestling a little bit with the notion of having such an offensive forward type as Rashford at LW. Ideally, he wants his wingers to be able to come deep and get the ball more, exactly like Pep is using Grealish and Bernado Silva. Pep's wingers often comes so deep that they only have 2 or 3 players between them and their own goal in the build up phase. That is a significant key in becoming as dominant in possession as they are, those wingers are very hard to mark and pressure as passing options when they start from a higher point up the pitch and moves back towards the defenders on the ball. Hence, I don't think ETH will mind keep experimenting with Rashford at striker from time to time. Many players starts on the wing and grows into the striker position over time (like Ronaldo). Wouldn't at all be surprised to see Rashford as a striker between say 28 and 32 y/o. So even if we of course must get two strikers -- I am not so sure that our second striker must be able to come in and play against all possible opponents if the top option is injured.
Say 30m from this years budget, 135m left.
If a RB is sold, we need a RB, and that RB would be Jeremie Frimpong
Jeremie Frimpong tics a lot of boxes. Having spent like 8 years in City's academy, he is a "homegrown player" under the PL rules. The kid has a ton of potential. I watched Leverkusen's last game of the Bundesliga earlier today. They got a red card after 10 minutes. Its a ball playing team coached by Xabi Alonso. They kept playing an offensive style of football, and Frimpong was all over the pitch. They lost 3-0, but the shots were actually 12-11 and the possession was even. Frimpong should have had a goal (hit the inside of the post on a break away) and an assist, but the marginals just weren't on their side. They also played with a back 4 for the first time in a while. I think JF fits better with a back 4, he can handle the extra mileage it requires from him, and with an extra passing option up top, it opens up the game more for him.
In terms of having an engine, having top speed, being able to cover a lot of ground, being mobile/agile -- I think Frimpong is as good as it gets more or less. He is just world class. He is back defending as a RB, and when his team has the ball, he is up looking to break an offside trap in the blink of an eye. With these type of players, you can't really go wrong. And its not like Frimpong doesn't seem to have his head screwed on right, he competes hard and is of course an extremely hard worker. He is also very gifted on the ball. I don't think he is like a top 5 RB in the world or anything -- he got a lot left to fine tune so to speak. But he do have that potential. Its kind of like with a Kyle Walker, if you are dominant physically, so much is won.
I think he will be priced accordingly. At times, it has seen like a few million has been added to his price every time we have been mentioned -- but I think its fair for Leverkusen to ask for around 60m. He is that talented.
50m from the budget, 85m left.
Kim Min-Jae
We obviously seem to have a lot of respect for how hard it is to get transfers done -- since we go for players that really are available. KMJ of course fit that bill due to his release clause.
I was first really high on KMJ. Probably not for the best reasons, but just getting a South Korean player is huge for our marketing ability. Long-term, that is not irrelevant for this club. As a dad with three kids between 8-15 y/o in Sweden -- I can attest to how not a single kid in this country idols Manchester United, if they aren't forced to by their dad. Its Liverpool and City, or perhaps Arsenal, and I am sure that is how it is in the rest of the world too. You can't let this decide your transfer strategy -- of course -- but if we get a SK player or a US player, it is a welcomed bonus for sure.
When I've watched him closely over the season -- I do get a little worried. I saw someone call him a South Korean Harry Maguire, and in a way, I definitely get what they mean. Does he make spectacular defensive plays? Yes. No doubt. He is definitely world class at playing a high defense, nobody can dispute that. His passing stats are also fantastic. But if you watch him and expect a ball playing defender who can dictate the tempo for his team -- like Timber and Martinez did for ETH in Ajax -- you have to look long and hard. When playing for Napoli in the CL -- against the top European teams -- he plays a very simple, fast, straight forward passing game. When he plays for Napoli against lesser teams in the Serie A, he expands his register a little, but only to making the odd longer cross switching sides of the possession. And when playing for South Korea, he is almost robotic in the sense that he every time he gets the ball, just hands it over to a midfielder. The World Cup games are available online to watch. I re-watched the game against Portugal. During 90 minutes -- he does not make one single pass or play with the ball, that doesn't consist of just looking up and immediately passing to a midfielder getting open in front of him. Being able to dictate the tempo of the play and unlock a defense is A and O for CBs in ETH's game.
This does genuinely worry me. But if ETH signs off on this signing, I am of course fine with it. If there are any indication that our management might go for a player without ETH's full support, I would be really scared about signing him.
55m from the budget, 30m left.
Back-up GK
If ETH wants to replace DDG this summer, he would have my full support. I don't think he will, I think he will opt to spend the money elsewhere.
But get a good young GK that at least can push DDG, and you never know, all of a sudden a kid like that takes it and runs with it.
15-20m from the budget, 10-15m left.
Academy players
We have been linked to a few kids lately, definitely think that we must keep filling the academy with younger players, in the 5-15m range. Get one or a few kids in with whatever is left after the above. I wouldn't mind if 30-40m was spent on kids with the aim of them contributing 3-4 years down the line.
LINE-UP
This leaves us with something like this.
Starting XI
------------------------------Kolo Muani------------------------------
Rashford---------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------Bruno------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------Antony
------------------Mount------------------------------------------------
------------------------------Casemiro--------------------------------
Shaw------------Martinez--------Varane----------------AWB
---------------------------------DDG--------------------------------------
Back-up XI
-----------------------------Vitor Roque------------------------------
Garnacho----------------------------------------------------Amad
------------------------------Sancho------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------Eriksen---------------------
----------------------Rice-------------------------------------------------
Malacia-----------KMJ--------Lindelof----------Frimpong
--------------------------------NGK--------------------------------------
With both Rice and Casemiro playing against the top opponents and always one of them being on the pitch if possible. I like it!
The great thing about this is that it isn't easy to choose a first team and a second XI - that is how a squad should look, rather than having a huge step down in quality like we (and Arsenal) currently have.
Fantastic analyses by dozens of posters here, but a bit more consideration should be given to our young players who might be ready to step into the first team next season. The answer might be obviously none, but is it really none? That would be a shame, given the history of United.
I am counting on Amad for sure.
Hannibal did tackle off pretty much during Birmingham’s season. At the same time, Birmingham as a team was just a misery. They wherent sufficiently prepared, obviously poorly coached. And at the end they just reverted to sending long. But it was a long season for Hannibal and it’s to forget that it did include a World Cup, which even if Hannibal only got a brief cameo on the pitch, of course mentally can wear on you.
Hannibal played great at the start of the season for Birmingham, but his play after like the first 10 games wasn’t good enough.
With that said, he does seem like the type who got a hard time keeping weight on, and that isn’t optimal for a player who tends to get stuck in a lot and who is involved in some hard physical battles. If he can take a big step physically, I wouldn’t rule out that he could have a big break through season.
And I mean, his ability to cover a lot of ground, to chase after the ball and put pressure on it, that is world class no doubt. He is also very skilled in terms of first touch and long range passing ability. He just must put it all together.
I think Hannibal is a legit option to play with the big team, unlike say Iqbal and Mainoo who are more raw (of course, they are younger). But I think he should go on loan another season.
Agree very much with the number of signings we need, though I think its seven as we need two strikers. Personally and partly as always liekd him before we signed him and championed him as a signing, wouldnt sell Bissaka, be DAlot over him any day of the week. I genuinely think we sell or try to far more than that, maybe a few of them go on loan but Williams, Telles, Bailly, Elanga, VDB....have no future here