US Presidential Election: Tuesday November 6th, 2012

[nimic]

Michelle Bachmann. President of the United States.

Newt Gingrich. President of the United States.

Donald Trump. President of the United States.

Just think about that one (those three) for a bit. I can't even decide if any of them would be preferable to Sarah Palin. Or Glenn Beck.

 

[Team Brian GB]

I see that Donald Trump is now working the Obama birth certificate angle - he is turning out to be quite the nutter.

 

[Excal]

You can dredge comparable crap like this up for just about any Republican.

Yes, you can. Because the "moderate" wing of the party these days pretty much consists of the two women from Maine, a state where you can't get elected even in a primary as a frothing-at-the-mouth conservative. The rest of the party is completely in thrall to its extreme wing. A "moderate Republican", if not actually oxymoronic, is certainly an endangered species.

 

[Team Brian GB]

Yes, you can. Because the "moderate" wing of the party these days pretty much consists of the two women from Maine, a state where you can't get elected even in a primary as a frothing-at-the-mouth conservative. The rest of the party is completely in thrall to its extreme wing. A "moderate Republican", if not actually oxymoronic, is certainly an endangered species.

It is at times like these that it annoys when people try and claim there is nothing that separates parties and candidates. I recall being in Central London a few years ago with someone who said that about the then ongoing mayoral campaign, even though the right was represented by Boris Johnson - uber tory and Eton educated and the left was represented by Ken "Red Ken" Livingstone who thinks that Hugo Chavez is a good man and last week on BBC 1 said the British Government should have supported North Vietnam against the United States.

 

[Excal]

I generally interpret the comment "Both/All parties are the same" to mean some combination of "I am disgusted with politics in general and a pox on both/all their houses," "I am disinterested in politics but don't want to seem like the lazy bastard that I am," and "I am so far off into Fringeyland that both parties might as well be in another solar system for all that I can tell."

 

[Team Brian GB]

It seems that the US unemployment rate is falling quite rapidly now, the best part of 1% since Christmas - is the economic recovery noticable with you lot?

 

[Excal]

It's really hard to judge that on a macro level. I got a new job last year, (was unemployed previously,) so naturally my circumstances have improved. Someone who lost their job and hasn't found a new one won't feel the same.

 

[Team Brian GB]

It's really hard to judge that on a macro level. I got a new job last year, (was unemployed previously,) so naturally my circumstances have improved. Someone who lost their job and hasn't found a new one won't feel the same.

True though I feel in England that you can take the feeling of how well the economy is doing irrespective of your circumstances. I spent 08/09 in the US though was in the UK over that Christmas and New Year, as soon as I was out of the airport and in London proper it hit you in the face, it is quite a difficult thing to explain but you definately knew something wasn't right.

 

[jveezy]

It seems that the US unemployment rate is falling quite rapidly now, the best part of 1% since Christmas - is the economic recovery noticable with you lot?

Hell yeah it is. I'm extremely close to getting a job offer. About as close as can be without officially getting the offer. And it's actually at one of the places that got some of the environmental stimulus money. I was also told that there would be several more hires coming in as well.

Of course that's on a really small scale if I just talk about myself, but at the same time, I've been receiving a lot more interview offers at job fairs and I'm seeing a lot more activity in general when it comes to engineering hires.

 

[Nucks]

I don't see anyone the Republicans have currently that can challenge Obama.

Palin and company are actually divisive, they have a polarizing affect on the Republican party. Moderates will be forced to vote Democrat or just abstain from the election, which leaves the Republicans with the rednecks and most of the Christian right.

 

[Raoul]

Yes, you can. Because the "moderate" wing of the party these days pretty much consists of the two women from Maine, a state where you can't get elected even in a primary as a frothing-at-the-mouth conservative. The rest of the party is completely in thrall to its extreme wing. A "moderate Republican", if not actually oxymoronic, is certainly an endangered species.

Those two are probably the most liberal Republicans in the Senate which is why they're often referred to as Rinos. Their platforms are probably less conservative than certain Blue Dog Democrat Senators.

If you're looking for moderate you can add Scott Brown, Dick Lugar, Lisa Murkowski, Mike Johanns, Kitt Bond, and Lamar Alexander to that list.

These are in contrast to the most conservative such as Barrasso, Chambliss, DeMint, Crapo, Risch, Coburn and a few others.

 

[Raoul]

I don't see anyone the Republicans have currently that can challenge Obama.

Palin and company are actually divisive, they have a polarizing affect on the Republican party. Moderates will be forced to vote Democrat or just abstain from the election, which leaves the Republicans with the rednecks and most of the Christian right.

Spot on. They would be wise to steer clear of the Beck/Palin/Bachmann crowd (which of course they won't). Even Gingrich as a certain farcically unelectable toxicity about him, which is great since a lot of Republicans fancy him as a sort of intellectual conservative who can take on Obama, and will probably push him to do so.

I still say this is a two way race between Romney and Huckabee, both of whom are actually somewhat equipped to make a decent campaign out of it and not lose by nearly 200 electoral votes as McCain did.

 

[Alex]

It's really hard to judge that on a macro level. I got a new job last year, (was unemployed previously,) so naturally my circumstances have improved. Someone who lost their job and hasn't found a new one won't feel the same.

McDonalds or BK?

 

[Alex]

Spot on. They would be wise to steer clear of the Beck/Palin/Bachmann crowd (which of course they won't). Even Gingrich as a certain farcically unelectable toxicity about him, which is great since a lot of Republicans fancy him as a sort of intellectual conservative who can take on Obama, and will probably push him to do so.

I still say this is a two way race between Romney and Huckabee, both of whom are actually somewhat equipped to make a decent campaign out of it and not lose by nearly 200 electoral votes as McCain did.

Romney very well could beat Obama, especially if he plays the healthcare situation correctly considering Massachusetts

 

[Excal]

Those two are probably the most liberal Republicans in the Senate which is why they're often referred to as Rinos.

Correct.

...wait, do you think this supports your position, here?

Senator Collins supports amending the Constitution to ban flag-burning, voted against a bill that would repeal federal subsidies for corporations that move jobs offshore, voted for the Bush Administration's bill that basically gutted the ability of anyone to file for Chapter 7 Bankruptcy, voted to loosen restrictions on licensing and background checks when purchasing firearms at gun shows, voted for warrantless wiretapping, and has consistently supported every GOP effort to weaken and destroy estate taxes.

Senator Snowe also supported amending the Constitution to ban flag-burning, voted against repealing federal subsidies for corporations that move jobs offshore, voted for the Bush Administration's Bankruptcy bill, voted to limit death penalty appeals, voted to restrict the ability to file class-action lawsuits, voted to increase mandatory minimums, voted to allow people to carry firearms on Amtrak trains, voted against the requirement for background checks on firearm purchases at gun shows, voted to permanently end the estate tax, and consistently supports capital gains tax cuts.

And yet these two are supposedly so beyond the pale of what's the right wing in this country calls "conservative", that conservatives claim they're barely Republicans at all.

And you don't see how this is essentially verifying the fact that the moderate wing of the Republican party is essentially nonexistent?

Their platforms are probably less conservative than certain Blue Dog Democrat Senators.

If you're looking for moderate you can add Scott Brown, Dick Lugar, Lisa Murkowski, Mike Johanns, Kitt Bond, and Lamar Alexander to that list.

These are in contrast to the most conservative such as Barrasso, Chambliss, DeMint, Crapo, Risch, Coburn and a few others.

The American Conservative Union gives the following scores to those Senators (higher number is considered more conservative) in 2010:

Brown: 74
Lugar: 71
Murkowski: 73
Johanns: 80
Bond: 82
Alexander: 80

Collins and Snowe were both rated 64.

By contrast, the highest rating they gave to any Democratic Senators were 48 to Senator Nelson and 46 to Senator Lincoln. Joe Lieberman, not exactly a darling of the left, received a score of 4. ("Maverick" McCain got a score of 100.)

McDonalds or BK?

Romney very well could beat Obama, especially if he plays the healthcare situation correctly considering Massachusetts

He's going to beat Obama by running against a healthcare plan incredibly similar to the one he implemented as Governor.

That's...novel.

 

[Raoul]

Correct.

...wait, do you think this supports your position, here?

Yes it does. I provided two liberal Republicans, followed by a list of moderate ones, followed by a list of conservative ones. Also there are probably a few issues such as Abortion, Gay Rights and so on, where Snow and Collins fall into a more liberal category than the blue dog Dems. It helps to look at the Republicans from an objective point of view rather than a left wing Democratic one, at which point, understandably, Snow and Collins would be perceived as moderate and not liberal.

The American Conservative Union gives the following scores to those Senators (higher number is considered more conservative) in 2010:

Brown: 74
Lugar: 71
Murkowski: 73
Johanns: 80
Bond: 82
Alexander: 80

Collins and Snowe were both rated 64.

By contrast, the highest rating they gave to any Democratic Senators were 48 to Senator Nelson and 46 to Senator Lincoln. Joe Lieberman, not exactly a darling of the left, received a score of 4. ("Maverick" McCain got a score of 100.)

I'm aware of the list, as well as the one the National Journal keeps.

This seems to clearly suggest that Republicans are divided into three tiers with Collins and Snowe on the far left of the party's political landscape, Brown, Lugar, Murkowski, Johann, Bond, Alexander etc in the moderate middle (ie mainstream conservative). And the likes of Coburn, DeMint, Crapo etc are on the right wing.

 

[Team Brian GB]

Correct.

...wait, do you think this supports your position, here?

Senator Collins supports amending the Constitution to ban flag-burning, voted against a bill that would repeal federal subsidies for corporations that move jobs offshore, voted for the Bush Administration's bill that basically gutted the ability of anyone to file for Chapter 7 Bankruptcy, voted to loosen restrictions on licensing and background checks when purchasing firearms at gun shows, voted for warrantless wiretapping, and has consistently supported every GOP effort to weaken and destroy estate taxes.

Not an ACLU member then.

 

[Team Brian GB]

Rick Santorum has basically declared his intent to run, that is another nutter to add to the list.

 

[Mockney]

I still think Obama will get a second term. Such is the way of America's staunch partisan politics that the Reps ramped up their retardation to even more insane levels at even the smallest hint of dissatisfaction and everyone jumped on the "he's shit, get him out" bandwagon after he'd only been in power for a year (after spending 8 years telling everyone who bashed Bush they were un-American for not supporting/tearing into the President), and it was all mainly due to economic hardships everyone - including himself in his inauguration speech - expected and openly stated would happen anyway

By 2012 the situation will have picked up and people tend to vote for the incumbent when they do.

 

[Team Brian GB]

I still think Obama will get a second term. Such is the way of America's staunch partisan politics that the Reps ramped up their retardation to even more insane levels at even the smallest hint of dissatisfaction and everyone jumped on the "he's shit, get him out" bandwagon after he'd only been in power for a year (after spending 8 years telling everyone who bashed Bush they were un-American for not supporting/tearing into the President), and it was all mainly due to economic hardships everyone - including himself in his inauguration speech - expected and openly stated would happen anyway

By 2012 the situation will have picked up and people tend to vote for the incumbent when they do.

Obama won a whole host of states that typically go Republican with less than 5% of the vote - Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio and on top of that Colorado, Pennsylvania and Virginia will be very difficult for an incumbent Democrat to hold.

They represent 116 electoral votes, those states will determine the election. When you throw Mitt Romney into the equation, he is one of the few Republicans around that could cause a democrat nominee to campaign in the North East which they never do, He'd force the issue in Massachusetts though likely lose their though New Hampshire and Maine ought to be winnable for him.

 

[nimic]

But wouldn't he practically need to lose all of those states to realistically lose the election? I can see a case being made for any of those states being lost, but all of them? I really can't see Obama losing this election unless some Republican wonderboy pops out of nowhere, or a major disaster that in some way can be blamed on Obama happens (as opposed to a major disaster that he can exploit for political credit).

 

[Team Brian GB]

But wouldn't he practically need to lose all of those states to realistically lose the election? I can see a case being made for any of those states being lost, but all of them? I really can't see Obama losing this election unless some Republican wonderboy pops out of nowhere, or a major disaster that in some way can be blamed on Obama happens (as opposed to a major disaster that he can exploit for political credit).

Yes he would though they are traditional republican leaning and swing states, he won in 2008 with a huge electoral college victory and 7% margin which he won't do again - a few of those states Obama carried with less than 1%.

For example:

Indiana, 11 electoral votes

Obama: 49.95%
McCain: 48.91%
2.8 million votes cast, Obama carried it with 28,500.



North Carolina, 15 electoral votes

Obama: 49.70%
McCain: 49.38%
4.4 million votes cast, Obama carried it with 15,000

 

[Raoul]

But wouldn't he practically need to lose all of those states to realistically lose the election? I can see a case being made for any of those states being lost, but all of them? I really can't see Obama losing this election unless some Republican wonderboy pops out of nowhere, or a major disaster that in some way can be blamed on Obama happens (as opposed to a major disaster that he can exploit for political credit).

Yeah he would, but since he's proven himself an excellent campaigner, as well as the fact that the economy is gradually recovering, its unlikely he will lose all of them.

A lot depends on who his opponent is and where his opponent's strengths and weaknesses are. I think Obama will hold serve in North Carolina, Colorado and Pennsylvania, but lost Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, and Florida. It will still be more than enough to get him reelected by a comfortable 50 electoral votes or so.

 

[MrMarcello]

Watched Bill Maher last night. That Bernie Sanders talks some sense. Nice to see an Independent in such a lofty political seat.

 

[Excal]

Yes it does. I provided two liberal Republicans, followed by a list of moderate ones, followed by a list of conservative ones.

No you haven't. You've provided two moderate Republicans, (well, I provided those, but I digress,) followed by a list of conservative ones, followed by a list of atavist eejits that'd vote to roll back evolution if they believed in it.

 

[Raoul]

No you haven't. You've provided two moderate Republicans, (well, I provided those, but I digress,) followed by a list of conservative ones, followed by a list of atavist eejits that'd vote to roll back evolution if they believed in it.

I have indeed, and the fact that you had to manufacture your own pejorative to describe the conservative wing of the Republican Party proves my point. You had overlooked them before and now had to fabricate a term to cover them.

If you are a liberal Democrat, as based on your previous posts, I'm assuming you are - then yes, Collins and Snowe could be characterized as moderate. But in objective terms, they comprise the liberal wing of the Republican party. The ones you cited as conservative are moderates in the Republican political structure, and the DeMints, Cockburns, and so on are the conservative wing.

 

[Sir Matt]

Last November, North Carolina elected its first GOP-majority legislature since 1870. It'll be interesting to see what people think of the Republicans finally getting a chance to do something in the General Assembly. GA rules basically let the Democrats run it with little input from Republicans in many cases. Unfortunately, now the GOP will do the same thing.

The Obama Administration will have to do a job getting blacks, hispanics, and young people out to vote again to have a good chance of winning the state again. Given the influence of conservative yankees who've transplanted themselves into Wake County(and attempted to re-segregate the schools), I think it would take some serious effort to prevent conservative rebound in the state.

 

[Raoul]

Last November, North Carolina elected its first GOP-majority legislature since 1870. It'll be interesting to see what people think of the Republicans finally getting a chance to do something in the General Assembly. GA rules basically let the Democrats run it with little input from Republicans in many cases. Unfortunately, now the GOP will do the same thing.

The Obama Administration will have to do a job getting blacks, hispanics, and young people out to vote again to have a good chance of winning the state again. Given the influence of conservative yankees who've transplanted themselves into Wake County(and attempted to re-segregate the schools), I think it would take some serious effort to prevent conservative rebound in the state.

The Demographics in NC have been changing gradually over the years, particularly in the research triangle and Charlotte areas where there are loads of students and young tech professionals. I'm guessing this trend will continue to help Obama next year, especially with the National Convention being held there. That said, its going to be very close again depending who the opponent is.

 

[Excal]

I have indeed, and the fact that you had to manufacture your own pejorative to describe the conservative wing of the Republican Party proves my point.

Neither the fact that your oft-proclaimed status as a moderate still allows you to view the Republican party from such a skewed perspective that you can envision Dick Lugar and Kit Bond as "moderates" nor your apparent belief that any of my pejoratives were manufactured prove anything other than that you have a significantly poorer grasp of both politics and colloquial English than you think you do.

If you are a liberal Democrat, as based on your previous posts, I'm assuming you are - then yes, Collins and Snowe could be characterized as moderate. But in objective terms, they comprise the liberal wing of the Republican party.

That's a funny usage of the word "objective". If you're going to frame a political party on a left-right spectrum, yes, some element of that party is going to be the farthest on the left. Referring to it as the "liberal wing" is a misnomer:

 

[Raoul]

We're arguing semantics here. Your own political views are going to affect how you label them. My point is that what you say is a misnomer is actually how Snow and Collins are viewed in most mainstream Republican circles. How a liberal democrat might characterize them is generally not pertinent since their views are skewed through the prism of their own politics, and as such, are going to resort to calling Conservative Republicans "idiots" etc. To sum it up, there are Conservative Republicans, there are mainstream Republicans, and there are liberal Republicans or RINOs (Republicans in Name Only) such as Snow and Collins.

 

[ooeat0meoo]

It should be a good election. I'm not naive enough to believe that Obama is unbeatable, especially during an economic dip.

Ditto


Obama is going to need to pull a rabbit that shits golden nuggets out of his ass in order to woo back more than 30% of his base that have felt disillusioned by his policies.

 

[nimic]

Ditto


Obama is going to need to pull a rabbit that shits golden nuggets out of his ass in order to woo back more than 30% of his base that have felt disillusioned by his policies.

I don't know about that. I don't think he's unbeatable, but I can't see Mr. Left-wing deciding to not vote for Obama when the choice is him or, say, Newt Gingrich. That's why some people actually voted for Kerry.

 

[Team Brian GB]

If I am going to bring up every nutter and wannabe nutter putting his name forward for the Republican nomination then of course it must be mentioned that President Obama kicked off his re-election campaign on Monday.

It was signalled a few months ago it would happen in March or April, and it is interesting he is now running whilst none of his serious contenders are at least offically. Of course the most important thing about declaring your intention or forming an exploratory committee is that you can begin raising donations, Obama's numbers are going to look quite frightening for Republicans very quickly. Especially so as any Republican has at least a year until they're the presumptive nominee.

 

[Excal]

Speaking of nutters, buried in the midst of a poll on which candidate voters in Mississippi prefer is the following fascinating tidbit:

We asked voters on this poll whether they think interracial marriage should be legal or illegal- 46% of Mississippi Republicans said it should be illegal to just 40% who think it should be legal.

 

[Raoul]

I love the fact that the likes of Barbour and Gingrich are being bigged up as legitimate Obama contenders. Just shows how much Republicans are clutching at straws in the absence of viable candidates.

 

[Cal?]

Neither the fact that your oft-proclaimed status as a moderate still allows you to view the Republican party from such a skewed perspective that you can envision Dick Lugar and Kit Bond as "moderates" nor your apparent belief that any of my pejoratives were manufactured prove anything other than that you have a significantly poorer grasp of both politics and colloquial English than you think you do.



That's a funny usage of the word "objective". If you're going to frame a political party on a left-right spectrum, yes, some element of that party is going to be the farthest on the left. Referring to it as the "liberal wing" is a misnomer:

But the problem is that it shouldn't be a straight line, it should be more like a circle.

The Chinese Communist Party is now running a fascist economy whereas Hitler was probably the biggest communist leader ever.

 

[Raoul]

Finally a candidate who believes underwear can be magical.

Mitt Romney: Mitt Romney announces second run for president - latimes.com

 

[Flying Fox]

I can't wait for the republican primaries and for Trump to fail (if he lasts until then) just for people to yell "Donald Trump, you're fired!"

 

[Raoul]

Trump is playing the media. Using the publicity for his business projects etc.

 

[Flying Fox]

Really? Didn't notice that one