Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
- Start date
My wife's cousin and his comrades are hiding/stuck inside a tunnel within the city. My wife and family did an airtime call with him two days ago to keep his spirits up.
It was all banter and we were careful not to talk any war stuff in case it could compromise his position.
He said there's high chance he won't make it out alive but he showed absolutely zero signs of fear. Brave lad - 45 year old with no prior military experience before this war.
We have had no communication since. We are praying he makes it out alive.
Last edited:
That's awful to hear. I hope that he'll get out unharmed.
16K! That can't be right, can it?
This wording almost makes him look good.
This is another conflict that will shame Western European countries.
Saw another Russian commander ranting that it was more costly than Bakhmut. This guy mentioned has apparently been fighting in Ukraine since 2014, though now known more as a Russian propagandist, as he ran a telegram channel. He's certainly no friend of Ukraine but would likely know the situation on the ground.
U.S. Warns Allies Russia Could Put a Nuclear Weapon Into Orbit This Year
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/21/world/europe/us-russia-nuclear-weapon-space.html
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
Aftermath published by russian sources in this thread (mind the sensitive content before opening):
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
Same happened yesterday in one of the training polygons in Kherson region:
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
Human life for russian generals / officers is the most expandable resource at their disposal.
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
Putin still believes he can win in Ukraine, says western assessment
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...he-can-win-in-ukraine-says-western-assessment
I doubt this required any investigation to reach that conclusion. Nowadays I doubt is possible to hide if you don't cut all your life contacts. If there is an interest to find you, they will and clearly they made an example for other possible defectors
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
"Russia outsmarts Western sanctions - and China is paying attention"
https://www.economist.com/finance-a...stern-sanctions-and-china-is-paying-attention
U.S. Warns Russia Not to Deploy Nuclear-Armed Space Weapon
https://www.wsj.com/politics/nation...-armed-space-weapon-dc3480b4?mod=hp_lead_pos1
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
If the reports are true, big if, then how is Russia sustaining these loses without mobilization? The numbers are higher then their losses in Afghanistan and starting to get close to American losses in nearly a decade of Vietnam.
If I recall correctly, they are mobilizing new recruits all the time. But it's on a smaller scale and it tends to be enough to feed the war machine for now. In other words, no need for Putin to go public about it or involve bigger parts of the Russian population. And there are also volunteers who sign up for the money, including foreign (Nepali).
So it's just an ongoing thing. Though some experts have said that a 2nd public mobilization wave might come after the March elections.
- https://jamestown.org/?post_type=program&p=97243
- https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-gru-...any-ukraine-redut-investigation/32630705.html
- https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67175566
- https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023...uit-400k-new-contract-soldiers-in-2024-a83509
The losses are big but so is their amount of troops.
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-re...-objectives-and-capacity-ukraine-through-2024
Last edited:
Ukr Air Force doing incredible work lately.
I live in St Petersburg and all over the city there are recruitment ads offering (for Russia) an extremely good salary to sign a contract with the army. Ads also play in buses and on the metro. Lots of guys actually are signing up. And if that's the case in a European city like Petersburg it'll be replicated many times over in other cities. Assuming you survive a couple of years, the salary being offered can buy a very decent apartment in the smaller towns and cities. Owning an apartment as opposed to renting one is a big thing here, it's a big 'draw'.
I also know of 4 guys who were conscripted in September 2022 (the mobilisation) who still haven't even been sent to Ukraine, let alone to the frontlines. They're at home with their families in Orenburg. They were initially put on a bus to a training camp in a nearby city (Perm) before being sent back because they weren't needed yet. That was almost 18 months ago.
My point being, I'll be very surprised if another mobilisation is enacted, because it seems to me Russia is getting more than enough men signing up of their own volition, especially now that (as it's presented in the media here) the worst of the fighting is now over as far as the Russian forces are concerned.
Last edited:
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
Cheers, thanks for the info.
I still find the numbers hard to believe. Some reports place lethal casualties at close to 100k. In comparison the US only had about 70k lethal casualties in nearly a decade of Vietnam
Thanks. It's very informative to hear the prospective of someone in Russia but why do people think the worst is over after something like Avdiyivka?
It's hard to comprehend, yes. But I think it's fair to say the Russians fight with a lot more recklessness than the US and the US was always technologically much stronger than the Vietnamese. In Ukraine on the other hand, Western weapons systems wreck havoc on the Russians.
Also, the Russian invasion was extremely poorly planned. Just convoy after convoy getting wrecked by artillery, Bayrakters and whatnot. Casualties rise quick that way
Regardless, we don't know the exact figures. Estimates are 315000 casualties but how many of those are KIA we don't know. I think it's in the range of 60k to 100k.
Precisely because of Avdiivka. I'm not saying it's necessarily correct (though my own opinion is that it broadly is), I'm saying it's the narrative being put out, namely that the guys who've served the first 2 years have done the bulk of the hard work and 'broken Ukraine's spine' (colloquialism) and anyone signing up now will have an easier job of it but for the same high salary, especially if the Americans continue to delay weapons.
@owlo
We talked about this case briefly, if you remember. They caught a Moldovan couple months ago, who said they were paid to do it by a Russian guy, I don't know if the article is just referring to that or if they have more to go on.
I thought it was weird, and not how I'd expect antisemitic messaging to look, but to be fair even if it's some agent provocateur stuff the method is still weird to me.
Incidentally, Joe Buccino (former communications director at U.S. Central Command and communications director for NATO's support mission in Europe during the first year of this war) wrote an opinion piece for The Hill yesterday:
https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/4481154-ukraine-can-no-longer-win/
"There is no path for Ukraine to win this war. American support will not change this reality".
https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/4481154-ukraine-can-no-longer-win/
"There is no path for Ukraine to win this war. American support will not change this reality".
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date