PL Top 4 race

Shane88

Actually Nostradamus
Joined
Jan 12, 2011
Messages
35,316
Location
Targaryen loyalist
Take solace in the fact that our assortment of overrated clowns get a 25% pay deduction. Some may only be able to afford one supercar per week.
 

Pintu

Full Member
Joined
Apr 12, 2015
Messages
4,213
Location
Sweden
You should certainly be higher than 10% but that's the thing, we win our next two, you lose at Man. City and it's back to 8 points with only 10 games left so it's unlikely but still possible, probably should be 30-40% really.

As it stands aswell 4th is only in play for CL so if 5th opens up that would boost the percentage estimate significantly aswell so check back on that in May when the european finalists are known....
5th is projected to guarantee CL qualification. We are (with Villa & Spurs) in a 3 horse race for 2 spots.
 
Last edited:

FootballHQ

Full Member
Joined
Nov 17, 2017
Messages
18,320
Supports
Aston Villa
5th is projected to guarantee CL qualification. We are (with Villa & Spurs) in a 3 horse race for 2 spots.


Is that the latest? We're now 11 points clear of 6th so I'd put us in the 90s personally as would require a monumental collapse now.

Man. United were 10% a few weeks ago and now 30s....will surely come down with a loss tomorrow which would leave six points clear with a spare game.

I'd be intrigued to know what metric has Spurs at 10% more likely to get CL compared to us. Fair enough if they win next week but they are five points behind us and the run ins are reasonably similar, infact Spurs have a pretty tough away schedule and Man. City and Arsenal from their remaining five home matches.
 

Plant0x84

Shame we’re aren’t more like Brighton
Joined
Jun 23, 2020
Messages
13,436
Location
Carpark and snack area adjacent to the abyss
This is looking bleak. We can’t afford to lose tomorrow and ideally need all 3 pts just to stay in touching distance.
Villa and Spurs play each other next weekend so that could be our in, if we are lucky tomorrow. :wenger:
 

Pintu

Full Member
Joined
Apr 12, 2015
Messages
4,213
Location
Sweden
Is that the latest? We're now 11 points clear of 6th so I'd put us in the 90s personally as would require a monumental collapse now.

Man. United were 10% a few weeks ago and now 30s....will surely come down with a loss tomorrow which would leave six points clear with a spare game.

I'd be intrigued to know what metric has Spurs at 10% more likely to get CL compared to us. Fair enough if they win next week but they are five points behind us and the run ins are reasonably similar, infact Spurs have a pretty tough away schedule and Man. City and Arsenal from their remaining five home matches.
You are right. That wasn’t the latest one. I believe the 10% you’re talking about reffers to top 4… but since last week’s European results (Frankrut elimination) England is now considered much closer to securing top 2 in UEFA ranking with Italy, which would make top 5 enough for the UCL.


@Remember the geese
Here’s the latest I found on twitter:

 

Yakuza_devils

Full Member
Joined
Oct 30, 2016
Messages
3,125
Lads, don't do this to yourselves. Top 5 is over and we don't deserve it. Even when we were winning games we conceded records breaking shots against us. We were lucky.

Villa and Spurs play much better football than us. They fully deserve CL next season.

We need to have complete reset next season with a new manager and style of play.
 

Plant0x84

Shame we’re aren’t more like Brighton
Joined
Jun 23, 2020
Messages
13,436
Location
Carpark and snack area adjacent to the abyss
Lads, don't do this to yourselves. Top 5 is over and we don't deserve it. Even when we were winning games we conceded records breaking shots against us. We were lucky.
I think it will go down to the wire. Villa have got European football to contend with, which they are not used to. They will tire.
Spurs could just get Spursy as usual, especially when they have to play the top 3 consecutively at the end of next month. Defeats in those games could really knock their confidence.
We haven’t had a settled back 4 all season, we’ve used something ridiculous like 23 back 4 combinations, so the patterns of play and relationships between players aren’t there. It has a knock on effect and highlights individual errors when team mates aren’t ready and covering each other.
I agree Spurs and Villa have played very good football but they are not the finished article yet, and they don’t have the experience of a top of the table run in. Don’t give up just yet, especially if we can get something out of our game tomorrow.
 

Red & White

Full Member
Joined
Oct 21, 2017
Messages
479
Gutted with the Villa and Spurs late goals yesterday but let’s face it, we don’t deserve CL football. It‘s been an awful domestic season. I know it’s said a lot but let’s not forget we finished bottom of our CL group this season, after finishing a respectable third place last year. Sometimes you need to have a bad outcome to push for the change that’s so desperately needed, whether that be playing personal, the manager or whatever they are planning behind the scenes.
 

BorisManUtd

Full Member
Joined
Nov 4, 2013
Messages
4,008
Lads, don't do this to yourselves. Top 5 is over and we don't deserve it. Even when we were winning games we conceded records breaking shots against us. We were lucky.

Villa and Spurs play much better football than us. They fully deserve CL next season.

We need to have complete reset next season with a new manager and style of play.
Exactly.
 

Morty_

Full Member
Joined
Feb 14, 2013
Messages
3,001
Supports
Real Madrid
Last nail in the coffin for United, i think.
 

BorisManUtd

Full Member
Joined
Nov 4, 2013
Messages
4,008
Last nail in the coffin for United, i think.
Yeah. Actually Fulham loss was but this kinda confirms it. Lose to Liverpool in the Fa Cup and that'll be season ended in March and I don't remember that being the case earlier as we usually capitulate in April in our bad seasons (18/19, 21/22).
 

Godfather

Full Member
Joined
Feb 18, 2007
Messages
30,067
Location
Austria
Imagine having 5 CL places, spending hundreds of millions just to struggle and most likely miss out even on fifth place.
 

Lexicon Red Devil

New Member
Newbie
Joined
Nov 15, 2023
Messages
85
Imagine having 5 CL places, spending hundreds of millions just to struggle and most likely miss out even on fifth place.
We're hardly unique in that respect. It's not like Newcastle and Chelsea haven't splashed some serious cash in the past few years. The bigger issue for me is the quality of the football we play, rather than the results.

I know we've had injuries, but there's just no real planning for the future. Would be easier to take the dour football if Kambwala was playing next to Varane and gaining experience rather than Evans and if Amad was getting Antony's minutes. We could have kept Hannibal and given him Amrabat's minutes as well.

Persisting with players we know aren't good enough and who are likely going to be gone next season just makes no sense. All three are ETH signings which just makes it so much worse.
 

KiD MoYeS

Good Craig got his c'nuppins
Joined
Feb 1, 2010
Messages
33,007
Location
Love is Blind
F*cking poxy Thursday, Sunday game cycle. Get what we deserve. We are not a Champions League side.
 

FootballHQ

Full Member
Joined
Nov 17, 2017
Messages
18,320
Supports
Aston Villa
For 4th, probably.

For the CL places, not yet.
Spurs still have Burnley, Luton at home and Sheffield United away so even if they choke some of the harder games they should pass 60 points very comfortably.

I can't see Man. United getting close to 70 points at all. You need to win 8 of your last 11 and then draw two others and even then your GD is wildly inferior.

Think you need to keep a check more on what Newcastle and West Ham are doing as I think most metrics would have us finishing 8th or 9th this season tbh.
 

2 man midfield

Last Man Standing finalist 2021/22
Joined
Sep 4, 2012
Messages
46,206
Location
?
We’ve now lost more than Chelsea. I didn’t realise things were that bad.
 

Dominos

Full Member
Joined
Jul 5, 2009
Messages
7,013
Location
Manchester
The bullishness on here a couple of weeks ago makes me laugh. Funny how our fans ignore the actual performance levels when we scrape a few ugly wins.
 

Rojofiam

Full Member
Joined
May 11, 2017
Messages
3,541
Spurs still have Burnley, Luton at home and Sheffield United away so even if they choke some of the harder games they should pass 60 points very comfortably.

I can't see Man. United getting close to 70 points at all. You need to win 8 of your last 11 and then draw two others and even then your GD is wildly inferior.

Think you need to keep a check more on what Newcastle and West Ham are doing as I think most metrics would have us finishing 8th or 9th this season tbh.
I'm not saying it's likely, but it isn't over yet either.

The only seemingly straightforward fixtures for Spurs are those 3 games you mentioned plus Nottingham at home as well. Their fixture list is definitely the more difficult one.
 

Bubba123

New Member
Newbie
Joined
Mar 17, 2023
Messages
29
What would be the point of playing in the CL next season anyway? Another 6 games of dross and maybe a few matches in the EL as punishment in the end?
Would it even help recruitment? Any new players can see we have no chance anyway.
CL money? Is it even more than the 25% player paycut (if it’s real)?
 

Leftback99

Might have a bedwetting fetish.
Joined
Jan 11, 2015
Messages
14,589
The bullishness on here a couple of weeks ago makes me laugh. Funny how our fans ignore the actual performance levels when we scrape a few ugly wins.
I did keep saying this. People were too quick to focus on Spurs and Villa potentially dropping a few points, ignoring that we play far worse football.
 

Skills

Snitch
Joined
Jan 17, 2012
Messages
42,124
The bullishness on here a couple of weeks ago makes me laugh. Funny how our fans ignore the actual performance levels when we scrape a few ugly wins.
Because our fanbase is literally the most clueless group of enthusiasts in all of sport. There isn't a fanbase that is less clued up about their supposed hobby than the Manchester United fanbase. You replace the ball for a frisbee and Man Utd fans for the most part would find it hard to process the difference.
 

Unam333

Full Member
Joined
May 26, 2008
Messages
5,870
Imagine having 5 CL places, spending hundreds of millions just to struggle and most likely miss out even on fifth place.
I didn't even realise that the top 5 spots quality for the CL. Only 6 points behind Tottenham though they have one game in hand. It's doable, but we need to perform and have that bit of luck.

I am worried about West Ham and Newcastle, they are awfully close to United.
 

fergiewherearethou

Full Member
Joined
Jan 9, 2022
Messages
1,626
Location
Lake Chargoggagoggmanchauggagoggchaubuna
Supports
Erik ten Hag
What would be the point of playing in the CL next season anyway? Another 6 games of dross and maybe a few matches in the EL as punishment in the end?
Would it even help recruitment? Any new players can see we have no chance anyway.
CL money? Is it even more than the 25% player paycut (if it’s real)?
Under a new manager and with a bunch of upgraded players we may end up even getting past the group stage.
Hope for a better future is everything we are left with.
 

Scandi Red

Hates Music.
Joined
Sep 25, 2022
Messages
4,777
Closer to 12th than 4th. We need to catch an 11 point deficit in 11 games. It would require something truly special from us as well as a spectacular collapse from Villa.
 

thisisnottaken1

Full Member
Joined
Dec 9, 2023
Messages
1,234
Location
Edinburgh
Imagine having 5 CL places, spending hundreds of millions just to struggle and most likely miss out even on fifth place.
Yup. Even in 2013-14, we were in the champions league until April. This has been an absolute catastrophe of a season, we’re well and truly out of contention for the top 4 anyway. By far the worst season in my lifetime, probably our worst season since the late eighties/early nineties at the very, very latest.
 

BenitoSTARR

One Minute Man
Scout
Joined
Sep 1, 2015
Messages
13,849
With our best XI fully fit we could have done it. But Martinez, Shaw and Højlund getting another injury just killed it.
 

RedSky

Shepherd’s Delight
Scout
Joined
Jul 27, 2006
Messages
74,349
Location
Hereford FC (Soccermanager)
I'm not saying it's likely, but it isn't over yet either.

The only seemingly straightforward fixtures for Spurs are those 3 games you mentioned plus Nottingham at home as well. Their fixture list is definitely the more difficult one.
I'd say the only safe bets for us are our home games against Sheffield Utd, Everton and Burnley. The rest of ours look like possible banana skins. We've got a blend of fairly tricky away games and some very tough home games.
 

KiD MoYeS

Good Craig got his c'nuppins
Joined
Feb 1, 2010
Messages
33,007
Location
Love is Blind
Fifth is doable for a consistent team, which we are not. It's done. We are looking over our shoulder at the teams below us rather than hot on the heels of the teams above us.
 

BenitoSTARR

One Minute Man
Scout
Joined
Sep 1, 2015
Messages
13,849
I'd say the only safe bets for us are our home games against Sheffield Utd, Everton and Burnley. The rest of ours look like possible banana skins. We've got a blend of fairly tricky away games and some very tough home games.
We know top 4 is absolutely gone. It’s only 5th that is reasonably up for debate and I just don’t see it happening.
 

LInkash

Full Member
Joined
Oct 20, 2008
Messages
8,283
Maybe if the 115 charges stick, we can get 5th place that way
 

RedSky

Shepherd’s Delight
Scout
Joined
Jul 27, 2006
Messages
74,349
Location
Hereford FC (Soccermanager)
We know top 4 is absolutely gone. It’s only 5th that is reasonably up for debate and I just don’t see it happening.
Exactly, realistically it just won't happen. Yes, 11 games is a lot in football, but it would require us to immediately pick up our form. I think Brentford will finally finish any hope we have. We'll grind through Everton, lose to Liverpool in the Cup and then Brentford will take us down while we're on a low. At that point seasons over and we could see a complete free fall like we did under Rangnick. I really do hope ETH can at least get us past Liverpool, I want to see him leave on a semi high.
 

Ayoba

Poster of Noncense.
Joined
Feb 2, 2021
Messages
8,579
We're not catching Villa, 11 points is too much.

6 behind Spurs, might be doable but they do have a game in hand. Next week is big as villa and spurs play against each other. Need a Villa win. Still, we have to be extremely consistent between now and the end of the season and hope spurs drop points. They have a habit of turning games around and getting last minute winners. We have a habit of losing. CL football aint happening next season lads.