China’s Taiwan Affairs Office has framed this elections as a choice between “peace and war, prosperity and decline.”
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No, conquering and annexing Taiwain is basically Emperor Xi's lifetime ambition.Does any of them have a realistic solution to get China to recognize them as a country?
Rather than a renegade provence in an ongoing civil war.
I don't agree with that, I'm sure there are things that China wants and it probably doesn't want a war. One that would likely involve a lot more than just Taiwan given it's economic importance due to TSMC and others there.No, conquering and annexing Taiwain is basically Emperor Xi's lifetime ambition.
Unless the CCP collapses, they'll never recognize Taiwan independence.
CCP will never recognize Taiwan. And seeing how they treated hong kong, i doubt taiwan will ever accept being part of china.I don't agree with that, I'm sure there are things that China wants and it probably doesn't want a war. One that would likely involve a lot more than just Taiwan given it's economic importance due to TSMC and others there.
So there will be a deal to be done to get them to finally end the civil war and recognise Taiwan.
If the consequences aren't felt by the aggressor then any situation can escalate out of control.I don't agree with that, I'm sure there are things that China wants and it probably doesn't want a war. One that would likely involve a lot more than just Taiwan given it's economic importance due to TSMC and others there.
So there will be a deal to be done to get them to finally end the civil war and recognise Taiwan.
The CCP can't and won't recognize Taiwan. It would undermine their legitimacy and the 70+ years of propaganda they've beaten into their citizens. Taiwan becoming independent would be a humiliation akin to the Century of Humiliation that is a core tenet of Chinese nationalism. If the CCP had spent the last several decades messaging differently, they may have been able to concede to Taiwanese independence, but there's been nothing but irredentism.I don't agree with that, I'm sure there are things that China wants and it probably doesn't want a war. One that would likely involve a lot more than just Taiwan given it's economic importance due to TSMC and others there.
So there will be a deal to be done to get them to finally end the civil war and recognise Taiwan.
It all depends on the US position, US recognition of Taiwan & the creation of a Pacific equivalent of NATO should be enough to hold China back.The CCP can't and won't recognize Taiwan. It would undermine their legitimacy and the 70+ years of propaganda they've beaten into their citizens. Taiwan becoming independent would be a humiliation akin to the Century of Humiliation that is a core tenet of Chinese nationalism. If the CCP had spent the last several decades messaging differently, they may have been able to concede to Taiwanese independence, but there's been nothing but irredentism.
The only real long-term deterrent that might work is a nuclear program, but Taiwan gave theirs up in the 80s.
I saw an interesting thing on YouTube today, something about China A Paper Tiger, saying that the Chinese Rocket Division has had a load of corruption and they're unlikely to be able to attack anytime soonCCP will never recognize Taiwan. And seeing how they treated hong kong, i doubt taiwan will ever accept being part of china.
I dont see any other outcome than armed conflict short/medium term
Wouldn't bank on it. The Russian military sucks compared to what it should be but the Ukrainians are still suffering. Numbers and resources always count to some degree.I saw an interesting thing on YouTube today, something about China A Paper Tiger, saying that the Chinese Rocket Division has had a load of corruption and they're unlikely to be able to attack anytime soon
I saw an interesting thing on YouTube today, something about China A Paper Tiger, saying that the Chinese Rocket Division has had a load of corruption and they're unlikely to be able to attack anytime soon
Cheers bud, that's the one
Well, i dont know china's military capabilities and i doubt that a YT video knows them either, but of course, china would only attack taiwan if they feel they can win. But is a plsn that they had been cooking for a long time and they are not in a rush, theyll bid their timeI saw an interesting thing on YouTube today, something about China A Paper Tiger, saying that the Chinese Rocket Division has had a load of corruption and they're unlikely to be able to attack anytime soon
It's focused on a Bloomberg report, including stuff from a defected general I think.Well, i dont know china's military capabilities and i doubt that a YT video knows them either, but of course, china would only attack taiwan if they feel they can win. But is a plsn that they had been cooking for a long time and they are not in a rush, theyll bid their time
CCP has shit loads of people/soilders. In a way, they probably won't need any advanced weapons but some ships if the whole country gets behind them for that.It's focused on a Bloomberg report, including stuff from a defected general I think.
I have a very different view on this, see what you guys think.Well, i dont know china's military capabilities and i doubt that a YT video knows them either, but of course, china would only attack taiwan if they feel they can win. But is a plsn that they had been cooking for a long time and they are not in a rush, theyll bid their time
China still has growth rates the west can only dream of. It has huge issues around its residential property market that will be a drag on growth for some time, but it also has pockets of growth in a lot of fast-growing industries that it is a world leader in.I have a very different view on this, see what you guys think.
They are in a rush, or at least emperor Xi is, they are in the midst of a economic meltdown and Taiwanese people are becoming less and less Chinese everyday with the older generation dying off.
They are not about to catch up with the US militarily in the foreeseable future.
Their biggest chance is to have KMT win an election so they can attack and have the Taiwanese president surrender before the US can help.
DPP getting elected is the best thing for peace across the strait as it maintains the status quo for now.
It's not just property market now, google Zhongzhi Enterprise Group.China still has growth rates the west can only dream of. It has huge issues around its residential property market that will be a drag on growth for some time, but it also has pockets of growth in a lot of fast-growing industries that it is a world leader in.
A bit of policy stimulus and you might start seeing investors taking another look at China because it's been so out of favour for ages now.
That's tied directly to the property market. There no doubt will be more bankruptcies as well - there are other financial firms in default on property-related investment products.It's not just property market now, google Zhongzhi Enterprise Group.
There are also structural problems with the economy, the blackhole that is the highspeed rail system, the huge youth unemployment rate that is so high they decided to stop reporting it.That's tied directly to the property market. There no doubt will be more bankruptcies as well - there are other financial firms in default on property-related investment products.
Seems more a protracted serious downturn rather than meltdown though, which would suggest a collapse.
Definitely there are arguments for going slow and some to go fastI have a very different view on this, see what you guys think.
They are in a rush, or at least emperor Xi is, they are in the midst of a economic meltdown and Taiwanese people are becoming less and less Chinese everyday with the older generation dying off.
They are not about to catch up with the US militarily in the foreeseable future.
Their biggest chance is to have KMT win an election so they can attack and have the Taiwanese president surrender before the US can help.
DPP getting elected is the best thing for peace across the strait as it maintains the status quo for now.
Add to that China's demographic problem.There are also structural problems with the economy, the blackhole that is the highspeed rail system, the huge youth unemployment rate that is so high they decided to stop reporting it.
We'll see, I wouldn't be surprised so see the Chinese economy stagnate for decades like Japan 30 years ago.
China's goal in Taiwan is influence, not territorial conquests. As long as Taiwan doesn't do anything stupid, like a formal declaration of independence, they will keep playing their diplomatic games for domestic support.No, conquering and annexing Taiwain is basically Emperor Xi's lifetime ambition.
Unless the CCP collapses, they'll never recognize Taiwan independence.
How does this square with Xi saying that reunification is inevitable?China's goal in Taiwan is influence, not territorial conquests. As long as Taiwan doesn't do anything stupid, like a formal declaration of independence, they will keep playing their diplomatic games for domestic support.
Xi outwards wants a pro China government in Taiwan, and a long term plan for unification, but he will be more than happy to use Taiwan as a symbol of US imperialism to distract from other issues. As long as Taiwain keep to the status quo - and the US does the same - China will keep rattling sabers without actually doing anything.
Taiwan is a very useful symbol for Chinese nationalism. It represents a power struggle with the US in their own back yard. When China needs to distract from something, like COVID restrictions, their go to thing is to talk about reunification. They've been doing that for a very long time now.How does this square with Xi saying that reunification is inevitable?
Another one of those white apologists working for the CCP to distort the facts and praise the emperor.
Stupid like Ukraine trying to join Nato? Just curious why the stupidity falls on the independent state and people who are doing regular democratic things rather than the powerful neighbour's violent criminality.China's goal in Taiwan is influence, not territorial conquests. As long as Taiwan doesn't do anything stupid, like a formal declaration of independence, they will keep playing their diplomatic games for domestic support.
Xi outwards wants a pro China government in Taiwan, and a long term plan for unification, but he will be more than happy to use Taiwan as a symbol of US imperialism to distract from other issues. As long as Taiwain keep to the status quo - and the US does the same - China will keep rattling sabers without actually doing anything.
It has nothing to do with that. Taiwain is in all practical things a self governed state protected by a superpower and the status quo. They don't need to formally declare independence. It will cause nothing but problems for them.Stupid like Ukraine trying to join Nato? Just curious why the stupidity falls on the independent state and people who are doing regular democratic things rather than the powerful neighbour's violent criminality.
Something strange about people wanting to feel independent, this idea that a foreign government claims some pseudoownership over your land and people just doesn't sit right. It's not morality but it's something innately human. That's why they might want to do it. I agree with you it comes with a lot of risks so lets examine the scenarios you laid out:It has nothing to do with that. Taiwain is in all practical things a self governed state protected by a superpower and the status quo. They don't need to formally declare independence. It will cause nothing but problems for them.
China will see a decleration of independence as an end to any hope of reunification, nationalists will be in incensed and Xi will face immense domestic pressure to invade. The US is likely to consider the decleration unwise and a break with the status quo, causing them to limit their involvement to supplying Taiwan. The reason for that will be the other S.Asian countries. Because they will primarily be worried about Chinese agression and a change to China's relatively stable foreign policy.
If China attacks without any change to the status quo, that would likely be considered a substantial change in China's regional strategy and one that would spark a fuse under the powder keg among S.Asian countries. Japan would militarize, S.Korea would worry US has lost control, N.Korea would take advantage and join China, Russia would provide ample unofficial support to have the US distracted and suddenly the entire region would be an unstable mess. The US would have no choice but to enter the war as an active participant because of their active guarantees or watch as the world is engulfed in chaos because it would signal to the world that the US no longer has the influence or power to maintain world stability. Japan will be wanting nukes and Korea will explode, US influence in the region evaporates and the world's supply of technogy dries out. If China moves first, it's world war three.
That likely won't happen if Taiwan is the one to change the status quo. At that point it's not a change in Chinese regional strategy or agression. Other S.Asian countries will be less concerned and partly view it as a self-inflicted situation given that Taiwan went against the status quo they all rely on for stability, and look for the US to ensure the conflict is isolated to Taiwan and not brought to their door step. They will push for ambiguity about US protection of Taiwan, and they will get it. It's a different dynamic all together. They will be concerned that the radical shift in Taiwan's politics will drag them into a war through the US. The US will increase military presence in S.Korea and Japan to prevent a massive increase in militarization, while assuring them that they will stand against Chinese agression should the chinese look beyond Taiwan. Everyone will pay lip service to Tawian's right to independence while quietly hoping Taiwan manages to wound China a bit and China can appease the domestic crowd by taking Taiwan. When that war ends, they will all reasses the situation and likely land on a new status quo.
So I ask you, what is the point? Why do it? It's not a question of morality.
In the current political climate, I do not see how they can avoid war if they declare independence.Something strange about people wanting to feel independent, this idea that a foreign government claims some pseudoownership over your land and people just doesn't sit right. It's not morality but it's something innately human. That's why they might want to do it. I agree with you it comes with a lot of risks so lets examine the scenarios you laid out:
Option A: China attacks first; Japan militarizes, Korea gets engulfed in war, Russia and the US will get involved and we get nukes and WW3
Option B: Taiwan declares independence, The other South Asian countries are less concerned, The US is forced to isolate the conflict by increasing military funding,
In both options you are assuming the only way Beijing can politically handle Taiwanese independence is war but leaving that aside the reaction of the other players and the South Asian states in particular is where I disagree with you. China's influence over the south east asian states is a double edged sword. The situation in Myanmar has shown that even a China backed junta can be toppled( with some chinese help). The trend in the populations is towards western style democratic ideals and each individual country will have it's own fundamental issues. This is all to say that a chinese attack is going to be the absolute worst thing Xi can do for Chinese interests and it's highly unlikely even the US can control the ripple effects.
I personally don't think it would make sense for Taiwan to seek an independence referendum for a lot of similar reasons as yours but I wouldn't begrudge their people a choice that is theirs to make.
U.S. does not support Taiwan independence, Biden says | Reuters"We do not support independence..." Biden said, when asked for reaction to Saturday's elections.
