Arsene Wenger's predictions on future transfers

[032Devil]

In an interview today on Skysport (Sunday 30 July), the Arsenal manager predicted that the present transfer system would collapse in favour of a system that would see more and more clubs allowing players to run down their contracts and move on to other clubs if they don't want to renew their contract. This would allow players the freedom to sign for clubs of their choice and demand higher wages as transfer fee would not be involved. He inferred that the present state of extremely high transfer prices we have seen this summer cannot continue.

With several of Arsenal players entering the final season of their contracts, is Wenger making excuses for top players at his clubs who refuse to extend and or honour the remain period of their contracts or do you think his belief is correct?

Can clubs afford to lose players they have developed and bring in big fee to their clubs as another source revenue to simply releasing them at the end of their contracts? And for those clubs who have an exceptionally gifted player who might be worth over say, £60m+, allow him to walk out of the club for nothing? Also, this idea of the future of football would have a devastating affect on smaller clubs who presently, can earn millions selling-on a gifted player they have nurtured. Going even further, would clubs spend millions on youth development if at the end the clubs lose their best talents for nothing?

 

[GlastonSpur]

In an interview today on Skysport (Sunday 30 July), the Arsenal manager predicted that the present transfer system would collapse in favour of a system that would see more and more clubs allowing players to run down their contracts and move on to other clubs if they don't want to renew their contract. This would allow players the freedom to sign for clubs of their choice and demand higher wages as transfer fee would not be involved. He inferred that the present state of extremely high transfer prices we have seen this summer cannot continue.

With several of Arsenal players entering the final season of their contracts, is Wenger making excuses for top players at his clubs who refuse to extend and or honour the remain period of their contracts or do you think his belief is correct?

Can clubs afford to lose players they have developed and bring in big fee to their clubs as another source revenue to simply releasing them at the end of their contracts? And for those clubs who have an exceptionally gifted player who might be worth over say, £60m+, allow him to walk out of the club for nothing? Also, this idea of the future of football would have a devastating affect on smaller club who presently, can earn millions selling-on a gifted player they have nurtured. Going even further, would clubs spend millions of young players development if at the end the clubs lose their best talents?

As has Levy. So that's at least two seasoned observers who predict that the bubble will pop.

 

[BobbyManc]

Yeah, transfer fees have likely reached something of a plateau, but the vision Wenger proposes makes no sense to me. Clubs will always compete for players, and clubs will always aim to maximise the value of an outgoing player, so a valuable player entering the final year of his contract with no intent of re-signing will more often than not be sold; see Koeman's stance on Barkley.

 

[Rhyme Animal]

As has Levy. So that's at least two seasoned observers who predict that the bubble will pop.

So, you're essentially saying that you'd rather Kane and Alli leave for nothing and go to clubs that pay them proper elite wages (which your own club will find even more difficult to do if it's waving away massive transfer fees it would be getting).

Sweet, me too.

 

[AkaAkuma]

Its a logical conclusion to make - but Wenger allows his own predicament to cloud his judgement. While some form of this may happen, its not going to become the norm.

Wenger should be getting them to sign a contract with a release clause for next season.

 

[red_devil83]

Since his 2 best players and about £70m of talent (paid for - worth even more in the current market) is going to leave his club for free next summer, I'd say he's rather hoping it becomes the norm. Otherwise Arsenal will be up shit creek.

 

[Gasolin]

As has Levy. So that's at least two seasoned observers who predict that the bubble will pop.

Or both Arsenal and Spurs could end up being the big losers of this game if it continues... unless the so called clubs are being bankrupted due to debt, the inflation will keep going up just like real estate.

 

[Bubz27]

A little bit like the American sports trade system we see?

LeBron James for example, isn't sold for $100m. He either runs his contract out or is traded.

 

[GlastonSpur]

So, you're essentially saying that you'd rather Kane and Alli leave for nothing and go to clubs that pay them proper elite wages (which your own club will find even more difficult to do if it's waving away massive transfer fees it would be getting).

Sweet, me too.

No, I'm saying that I agree with Wenger and Levy that the transfer bubble will pop. This will leave clubs that have spent mega-bucks on players unable to sell them except a huge loss.

I'm not proposing any alternative system.

 

[donkeyfish]

If all clubs have sufficient finances to refuse bids, it'll probably be more common.

I somehow doubt a big, shock-like change, more a pull in that direction. On the other hand, clubs have already realised there can be mutually beneficial agreements made to ensure a player leaves with a fee. Like we did with Ronaldo.

 

[BBRBB]

There isn't much wrong with the current transfer system. The only real issue is the agents and intermediaries being too powerful and taking money away from football.

Transfer fees being sky high only reflects the fact that many clubs have a lot of cash available and are healthy enough to refuse selling their best players at market price.

Changing the transfer system would likely create many new problems while barely solving anything.

 

[MikeSmalling]

...the inflation will keep going up just like real estate.

Your location says you live in New York City. You must have a terribly short memory if you don't remember this:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_housing_bubble.

The rapid rise in transfer fees is nearly unprecedented and largely driven by television deals. That growth is simply not sustainable. The NFL's situation in the US (ESPN's, as well) should serve as a warning.

I'm not saying that a "burst" is imminent. In fact, the fees might continue to rise for several more seasons. But the growth/rise is not sustainable, period.

 

[donkeyfish]

Your location says you live in New York City. You must have a terribly short memory if you don't remember this:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_housing_bubble.

The rapid rise in transfer fees is nearly unprecedented and largely driven by television deals. That growth is simply not sustainable. The NFL's situation in the US (ESPN's, as well) should serve as a warning.

I'm not saying that a "burst" is imminent. In fact, the fees might continue to rise for several more seasons. But the growth/rise is not sustainable, period.

There's a difference between whether the growth or the level is sustainable.

 

[goin4glory]

In an interview today on Skysport (Sunday 30 July), the Arsenal manager predicted that the present transfer system would collapse in favour of a system that would see more and more clubs allowing players to run down their contracts and move on to other clubs if they don't want to renew their contract. This would allow players the freedom to sign for clubs of their choice and demand higher wages as transfer fee would not be involved. He inferred that the present state of extremely high transfer prices we have seen this summer cannot continue.

With several of Arsenal players entering the final season of their contracts, is Wenger making excuses for top players at his clubs who refuse to extend and or honour the remain period of their contracts or do you think his belief is correct?

Can clubs afford to lose players they have developed and bring in big fee to their clubs as another source revenue to simply releasing them at the end of their contracts? And for those clubs who have an exceptionally gifted player who might be worth over say, £60m+, allow him to walk out of the club for nothing? Also, this idea of the future of football would have a devastating affect on smaller club who presently, can earn millions selling-on a gifted player they have nurtured. Going even further, would clubs spend millions of young players development if at the end the clubs lose their best talents?

It's in the players interest to sign shorter term deals. Guys like Kane and Ali are complete mugs earning 50 and 70k a week each when they both could be getting far more at top clubs. If a top player sees out his contract there's no reason why they can't get a 30m+ sign on bonus for joining a new team, why would Liverpool care if they gave 30m to VVD himself instead of Southampton?

Imagine Messi ran out his contract this summer, what would top clubs around Europe be willing to offer him? If his agent said pay us 70m sign on bonus most clubs would snap their hand off. In fact it's better to pay the player since it means Barca wouldn't have the large transfer fee to reinvest.

 

[Ramshock]

Zidane cost £46M in 2001 what would that translate to today?

 

[Gasolin]

Your location says you live in New York City. You must have a terribly short memory if you don't remember this:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_housing_bubble.

The rapid rise in transfer fees is nearly unprecedented and largely driven by television deals. That growth is simply not sustainable. The NFL's situation in the US (ESPN's, as well) should serve as a warning.

I'm not saying that a "burst" is imminent. In fact, the fees might continue to rise for several more seasons. But the growth/rise is not sustainable, period.

I was in Paris at that time but the story is similar, for places like Manhattan and Paris, the bubble and the so-called crash is really minimal... not saying there will never be a bubble neither, but in some places, it's almost entropic. And even if there is a slight correction, it will never be a crash to the level you see in some areas.

 

[Akshay]

I'm pretty sure Wenger has been calling the transfer market and its prices an unsustainable bubble for as long as he hasn't been able to compete in it. The collapse of the system in favor of players having the patience to wait out their full contracts before moving is nonsense.

A little bit like the American sports trade system we see?

LeBron James for example, isn't sold for $100m. He either runs his contract out or is traded.

That's different, because the inability to use large sums of cash in trades is imposed by the league. Once you start using money, you never go back to a barter system.

 

[RedDevil@84]

Wenger also thought FFP will help him win PL because all other clubs will wither away.

 

[BigCaine]

As has Levy. So that's at least two seasoned observers who predict that the bubble will pop.

I won't call them seasoned observers in this case, they are two of biggest penny pinchers in the game, just because they don't spend money doesn't mean everyone else will also stop spending money.

 

[Kurosawa]

There isn't much wrong with the current transfer system. The only real issue is the agents and intermediaries being too powerful and taking money away from football.

Transfer fees being sky high only reflects the fact that many clubs have a lot of cash available and are healthy enough to refuse selling their best players at market price.

Changing the transfer system would likely create many new problems while barely solving anything.

Would be interesting to see your opinion if PSG didn't have pretty much enough money to buy anyone. Not that I disagree too much with your opinion.

Wenger and Levy's opinions are coloured by their current predicaments and sound hopefully rather than anything else.

Transfer fees have been mad for over 2 decades. They are just getting farther away from our reality because there is even more money in the game now.

As long as the game remains as profitable as it is the demand for high quality players and the scarcity of them will continue to raise fees. We'll just have to stick it out and as fans just focus on the football side we all enjoy. And until something really bad happens, I have no notion of what, since I know very little of finance and economics, just accept this is the way it is.

 

[Il Prete Rosso]

Or both Arsenal and Spurs could end up being the big losers of this game if it continues... unless the so called clubs are being bankrupted due to debt, the inflation will keep going up just like real estate.

We all knew what happened to the real estate bubble.

 

[Il Prete Rosso]

Zidane cost £46M in 2001 what would that translate to today?

In today's market, Zidane would cost in excess of 120 million easy.

 

[ti vu]

If that happened, then agents would become more powerful, owner like in a sense without even spending a penny.

Realistically it's unlikely to happen as you see in Spain, they have release clause law. So let's say PL clubs refuse to sell & force players to run out contract (players need to get a sizable contract to secure their career just in case logically). Then eventually players would avoid PL altogether as they see it is not worth as it's too complicated in case there is life time chance for them to move to a dream club. Let say a player near 30 y/o who has a tough learning curve and only realize his potential late. Finally he has big clubs come asking for his service. Forcing his to stay at an average club because the club doesn't need to sell thus deny the player chance to make a mark in his career is inhuman. PL clubs would be flecked with players migrate to other leagues where they are allowed transfer.

If that's the case, I can see players would likely join big clubs in the first place even by taking lower wage & risk being sent on loan forever. Why? If they realize their potential, they can return to the big clubs without being bound by the smaller clubs. Smaller clubs would find a hard time getting players in as agents are aware those clubs would hinder their profit by blocking move of their client when time is nigh. Even a super league exclusive to big/ wealthy clubs may become realistic.

Hmm... so while Levy & Wenger are hoping for the world to crash for their genius to be celebrated, Abramovich is several steps ahead with Chelsea already doing a lot ground work with their player loaning system...

 

[FC Ronaldo]

I mentioned this here: https://www.redcafe.net/threads/time-for-release-clauses-in-epl.429773/#post-21029793

Still think it makes total sense.

Release clauses should be in every contract and I think they should be calculated on the following basis unilaterally across the board:

wage x contract length x modifiers for league position and league ranking as per UEFA coefficient points.

Throw in a quota of 3 slots for protected players per team with those protected players having release clauses where rejections are possible. Therefore, clubs retain control and if they do actually wish to sell players, could use that protection to inflate prices further for limited assets.

 

[B20]

Absolutely against the idea of clauses being based on league position. That's a formula for blatant exploitation of smaller clubs.

Having protected players also defeats the whole point of having systemwide release clauses. There are hardly any clubs who have more than three players who they desperate to keep that everyone else is looking to sign. Net effect would be close to none if the actual desirable players have no clause.

That said, I do think a buyout clause should be included in all contracts, based on wages and remaining length of contract in some form. Maybe not 1 to 1 but it's the only thing that makes sense. Value players according to what you pay them.

 

[foolsgold]

Yeah, transfer fees have likely reached something of a plateau, but the vision Wenger proposes makes no sense to me. Clubs will always compete for players, and clubs will always aim to maximise the value of an outgoing player, so a valuable player entering the final year of his contract with no intent of re-signing will more often than not be sold; see Koeman's stance on Barkley.

You can't sell a player that doesn't want to be sold, regardless of what the club wants. if you were an elite player with 12 months on your contract, wouldn't you wait and sign for higher wages rather than your current employer picking up 40m?

All the power is with the players.

 

[Akshay]

That said, I do think a buyout clause should be included in all contracts, based on wages and remaining length of contract in some form. Maybe not 1 to 1 but it's the only thing that makes sense. Value players according to what you pay them.

Wonder what that would do to contracts for youngsters a club develops, though. Generally you aren't going to be paying them mega-bucks until they have that breakout season, and that's exactly when everyone else is going to want them too.

Not to mention there's a huge wage disparity between the elite leagues and everyone else. Their players would sell for peanuts in the transfer market. It would kill a lot of clubs I imagine.

 

[LuisNaniencia]

I do think transfer prices will slow down but this sounds like Wenger is painting himself as a revolutionary rather than someone who has fecked up in allowing the Sanchez situation to happen. Not to say he's completely to blame but if they'd have offered Sanchez 250k earlier he may have signed.

 

[RedStarUnited]

As has Levy. So that's at least two seasoned observers who predict that the bubble will pop.

But its not really a 'bubble' is it? Transfer fee's are tied to revenue. The more money clubs make, the higher the transfer fees go.

Players were not being sold for 50m in the 90's because no one was making enough money to justify it, They are now. As a percentage of revenue generated by the club, Pogba's transfer fee is lower than Rio Ferdinands 15+ years ago.

 

[charlenefan]

Release clauses can be a waste of time though see Neymar, Barca obviously set it that high to stop anyone from buying him and now a club is willing to pay it they want to report them

 

[Manchester Dan]

His proposal only works when you stop treating football like a business, and instead treat it like a sport. His club are the biggest offenders. What kind of owner would let an asset worth £50m+ walk out of the business for free. The only time it'll happen again and again is when you don't sort out their contracts in time (Arsenal, again).

 

[BigCaine]

We all knew what happened to the real estate bubble.

Real estate bubble was people with not enough money buying costly houses with not their money and then not paying that money back, here the increased spending is backed by increased resources leading to higher prices, that is basically how everything works.

 

[Schmiznurf]

He's getting his excuses in early for his two best players leaving on a free because his club is too tight to give them the wages they want.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

As has Levy. So that's at least two seasoned observers who predict that the bubble will pop.

There is no 'bubble', beyond PSG, City and United the current situation is largely driven by the massive recent increase in PL TV money. I do believe that PL TV revenues will at least taper off but when they do clubs will know a few seasons in advance before the deal kicks in. This will give a period of adjustment and with the vast majority of players on 5 year contracts max there will be no 'burst' or collapse. Sorry.

His proposal only works when you stop treating football like a business, and instead treat it like a sport. His club are the biggest offenders. What kind of owner would let an asset worth £50m+ walk out of the business for free. The only time it'll happen again and again is when you don't sort out their contracts in time (Arsenal, again).

I think privately they are gambling on them having a good season and getting Sanchez and Ozil to sign on, or at the least get them into the CL again. Qualifying for the CL again is surely worth more to them than selling Ozil and Sanchez for £80m now.

 

[RyRoc]

There isn't much wrong with the current transfer system. The only real issue is the agents and intermediaries being too powerful and taking money away from football.

Transfer fees being sky high only reflects the fact that many clubs have a lot of cash available and are healthy enough to refuse selling their best players at market price.

Changing the transfer system would likely create many new problems while barely solving anything.

Problem is this a massive issue. Don't know how others feel but for me the amount of money and this kind of celebrity status agents are getting for transfer fees is really leaving me with a sour taste and find it hard to accept. Not sure what can be done about it mind.

As regard to what Wenger was saying I think he was talking more about transfers between bigger clubs which kind of makes sense.

 

[B20]

it's going to have an explosive effect on wages once we get some big players on bosmans.

"so you were willing to pay 75m+my contract (let's just say 65m for 250k a week for five years) for me in my last year of my contract, but now I am on transfer free, I am only worth 100m (400k/week for 5 years) to you?

Gylfi sigurdsson must also be wondering when his 40m+ valuation is going to reflect in his wages.

 

[B20]

There is no 'bubble', beyond PSG, City and United the current situation is largely driven by the massive recent increase in PL TV money. I do believe that PL TV revenues will at least taper off but when they do clubs will know a few seasons in advance before the deal kicks in. This will give a period of adjustment and with the vast majority of players on 5 year contracts max there will be no 'burst' or collapse. Sorry.

We might see a small collapse in the premier league if wages begin to skyrocket as well and the tv money dwindles. You can stop bidding high overnight, but you can't stop a contract you can no longer afford overnight. The big clubs have strong alternative sources of revenue to weather that, but lots of other clubs don't.

 

[pacifictheme]

A little bit like the American sports trade system we see?

LeBron James for example, isn't sold for $100m. He either runs his contract out or is traded.

Don't they trade players for picks in the draft sometimes?

 

[Mogget]

I personally think he's making excuses because yet again key Arsenal players have been allowed to reach this stage. You don't see this sort of thing happening at other clubs yet it's becoming common at Arsenal so obviously something isn't working properly behind the scenes.

 

[Litch]

Agree with most that is a smoke screen for Wenger mis-management of players contracts. Once it became clear they weren't gonna stay, they should have sold them. The Wenger way if players are gonna stay until their contracts end, these contracts will be short otherwise why commit to somewhere that you might end up being stuck at? The other issue is I can see players wages going up and signing fees too as teams won't have to pay to buy them. How much will Sanchez salary be worth next year....half mil a week?