Absolutely, the figure of £3.5b would sound like a realistic offer. When you look at the cost of updating Carrington and basically levelling and rebuilding Old Trafford at the cost of around £1.5b.
I think the magic number is 4bn, but I could see scope for it to be negotiated a little lower. It’s really anyone’s guess because the valuation of football clubs, and sports franchises in general, doesn’t follow the traditional income or EBIDTA valuation models typically used in valuing a business. They either use a 20-30 multiple of revenue, which is frankly ridiculous, or the market valuation model, which uses historical precedent of other sales as the benchmark. In this case Chelsea going for 2.5bn would be the bench mark. I think the Glazers would value United at a 50% premium over that, hence the 3.75-4bn number. From everything I’ve heard from the inside, the number has always been around 4bn. And that’s sterling.
I think anyone taking over would likely maintain the long term debt, and settle any shorter term credit facilities. I can see around 4.5bn being the takeover package, with 500mm-1bn remaining being used to invest in infrastructure and players. Mainly infrastructure.
I would not expect a 1bn+ new stadium either, I’d expect the FSG model of a revamp and possible expansion of OT, and I can see that costing 400-500mm. I think capacity expansion will be low down the list of priorities, I think the focus would be on improving the fan experience, a new facade, better corporate facilities, and developing the area around OT to generate new revenue streams through hospitality, events, corporate entertainment, and fan engagement. I would imagine a fair amount of tax breaks an incentives can be sought for general urban regeneration of the area. Which is badly needed.