Discussion in 'Football Forum' started by uamini, Jul 24, 2018.
At least we get a last day decision too.
What a last gameweek we'l have! Bayern v Frankfurt, Gladbach v Dortmund. Both matches will determine not only the champions but the final champions league spot as well.
As much as I would love Leverkusen to be in the UCL, would want Dortmund to win the title more so go Frankfurt
Although, coincidentally, if Dortmund are beating Gladbach then both Frankfurt and Bayern will get their goals by just a draw. Bayern are two points ahead with superior goal difference as are Frankfurt over Gladbach (that is if Frankfurt beat Mainz tomorrow).
First time in ten years that the championship battle comes down to the last match day, yet this has become basically a "Who is less shit" race. Dortmund have been awful in the second half of the season, if they would somehow win the thing (don't even think they'll beat Gladbach) it would be such a fluke title.
While I wholeheartedly agree with your assessment of Dortmund's current state I think it should not be forgotten that pointwise it is already their fourth best result pointwise in club history. If they win at Gladbach that gets bumped up to third best ever.
Things aren't looking too good for the Hamburgers, with Paderborn leading 1-0 against them and Berlin also being up 2-0, promotion would be gone for good. Even if they turn it around against Paderborn they can only hope for 3rd place and a playoff against a somewhat recovered Stuttgart.
I wonder if they can survive it financially.
What the heck, Rebić?!
A draw today actually keeps things spicy for the final matchday. If Frankfurt win against Mainz a draw with Bayern will make both teams happy.
That‘s best case for Bayern. I don’t trust Kovac to succeed in a must-win game against Frankfurt. He really needs to leave this summer.
The problem for BVB is that Bayern only need a draw to be save. That's very doable at home, even for Kovac.
Not to mention that at least one B out of BVB stands for bottling these days anyways.
They grew to like Europa League *that* much? 0-2 Eintracht.
2 goals for Ujah - Mainz leads 2:0
Or not even that. If they lose in Munich and Hoffenheim wins in Mainz and Wolfsburg against Augsburg it is rank 8.
It's sad really. Frankfurt easily deservs 4th place the most imho. And now it looks like they will pay a big price for finally giving Bundesliga an EL showing it can be proud of.
Why do you think they deserve it? Their EL run was great but their Bundesliga campaign wasn't CL-worthy. They basically went on two runs, one had 6 wins in 7 games and the other one was 6 wins in a row. The weird part is that both those runs were against the exact same teams (Hannover, Hoffenheim, Düsseldorf, Nürnberg, Stuttgart, Schalke, Augsburg). Add their 6 points against Freiburg on top of that and you get a team that basically feasted on the weakest teams in the league.
They won a single game against a top 7 side this season, that's just not good enough for a top 4 finish.
Well they had a rough start with their new coach, but after that they played a fairly consistent season until now. They may only have beaten Leverkusen once, but they also drew Dortmund and Gladbach, as well as Leipzig twice.
Gladbach could focus on the league and still made a complete mess out of 2019, Leverkusen has by far the strongest squad out of the three, still messed up with Herrlich and even under Bosz directly went out of Europe because they couldn't beat Krasnodar at home.
If they all finish level(ish) and one didn't have European commitments, one went out against Krasnodar and the third had to play Donezk, Inter, Benfica and Chelsea (all of which are CL level btw) on the side then it's clear to me who had the hardest road to their points.
If they did it like Leverkusen and went out against Donezk, then they would probably already be through.
Hopefully Haller is fit to play from start next week. Him, Rebic and Jovic as front three will cause Bayern Munich some issues although they're obviously clear clear favourites just needing a point and it being a home game.
Dortmund sign Nico Schulz for 25 ME
Not quite sure how to feel about this transfer. Dortmund seem to have had a good enough LB in Guerriero but refuse to play him at LB because of his supposed defensive weakness, but then how is Nico Schulz any better? Schulz is also known primarily for his offensive prowess, like Guerreiro.
Also, Schulz has always played his best in 3-5-2 formation, at Hoffenheim and for Germany lately, because at LWB he is able to play more freely forward. Favre favours the 4-2-3-1, so I'm not sure how Schulz would fit any differently in that formation compared to Guerreiro.
This has not been confirmed yet has it? Can't find anything on the club homepage at least. Nonetheless this seems to be an all but done deal. I'm a bit sceptical as well I have to say. In general it is a good thing that the fullback position is being addressed (not that there was any way around that really). I understand that they are going for a german player as well since with potentially Philipp, Schmelzer, Weigl, Rode, Dahoud and Toprak leaving they have to be mindful of the domestic player rule. It is the same reason why Brandt would make a bit more sense.
So I would say I like the player and I can understand some of the reasoning behind the transfer, I am just not sure how he would fit into the current squad. It might indeed signal a tactical change, I feel there should be enough strong CBs and Hakimi on the left is definitely stronger offensively than defensively as well. I guess we will just have to wait and see how it pans out, I think this is a pretty low risk transfer quality wise but the potential upside also seems to be limited.
- Wait, there is a domestic player rule? Since when has that been enforce and what is the rule? I've never heard of it before :P
- Hakimi should be the permanent option down the right (well permanent in such till his loan expires next season). Schulz and Hakimi will be very offensive though, maybe Favre wants to go with 3 at the back?
Sorry, looking at my posting there are some mishaps The tactical change I am alluding to is of course a formation with 3 at the back which would free up both Hakimi and Schulz to play a more offensive role. Additionally it will of course be Schulz on the left and Hakimi on the right, not sure why I said Hakimi would be on the left.
Concerning a domestic player rule, there is indeed one in place. It has been amended a couple of times since 2005 and since 2009 the rules in Germany are as follows:
12 players in the squad of each Bundesliga team need to be german (Lizenzspieler)
8 players in each squad have to be 'Local Players' which means that they have com from the youth system of a german club. More specifically they have to have played three full seasons at a german club between the ages of 15-21. These players do NOT have to be german.
4 players have to be 'Local Players' to the club meaning they have to fulfill the above criterion for the club they are employed at. They also do not have to be german, for example Pulisic was a local player for Dortmund.
Now you can imagine, that these rules have lead to a few issues for a couple of clubs. In my memory it has most prominently been Frankfurt who have given professional contracts to youth players without them ever even being in a matchday squad. I am pretty sure they have had matches without german players on the pitch, this season Trapp, da Costa and in the second half of the season Rode have been their only german players to see regular game time. Yet if you take a look at their squad you will find that there are a couple of players you have never heard of, most of them from their youth ranks. This is done to abide by the aforementioned rules.
This is why Dortmund might struggle a bit in the near future if they want to avoid being in the same situation. Currently the local players for Dortmund are Pulisic, Schmelzer, Bruun-Larsen and Götze if I am not mistaken (I may well be). Additionally Passlack and Burnic are currently on loan but I don't expect either of them to play at Dortmund next season. Even though Reus has played at Dortmund since he was a kid he spent those crucial years 15-21 mostly at Ahlen and Gladbach so he is not eligible there. This might be one of the reasons Dortmund have always been a bit reluctant of letting Schmelzer go. He is an accomplished player and I probably like him more than most Dortmund fans. But he is also a local player and not a youth prospect whose career you might be hampering by keeping him just for the sake of abiding by the rules.
So with Pulisic leaving and Schmelzer on the way out Tobias Raschl and Luca Unbehaun will be promoted from the youth ranks. Potentially the local players for Dortmund will be Götze, Raschl, Unbehaun Schmelzer/Bruun-Larsen next season.
Looking at the german quota in the event of all of Philipp, Schmelzer, Weigl, Rode, Dahoud, Toprak, Oelschlägel, Schürrle, Toljan, Burnic, Passlack leaving this summer (of course not all of them will transfer but lets just look at who would be left) there would be five german players left: Reus, Götze, Wolf, Raschl and Unbehaun. This would leave seven spots open that need to be filled with german players. Of course a few of the potential outgoing transfers will be kept and some they just will not be able to get rid of. Maybe a few more players will be promoted from the U23 or U19. But generally it would be really desirable to have a core of strong german players in order to not have to dance around these regulations as much. This is why I think taking punts at the likes of Schulz and Brandt does make some sense, even if the risk of them only working out moderately well is definitely given.
Sorry for the somewhat lengthy and Dortmund specific write-up, but I think this is actually a quite interesting aspect of squad planning and the general muppetry
Edit: I am pretty sure there are players in the U23 with professional contracts that I have not listed here so please take the numbers of german players needed with a massive grain of salt.
Guerreiro has had 4 coaches at Dortmund and none of them gave him a proper run at LB, Tuchel came the closest, but even he put Guerreiro at LWB, with Schmelzer as L(C)B behind him. They can't all have been idiots. He's also not unlikely to leave this summer. Schulz however is distinctly different from him, he's much more athletic, much quicker and he's happy providing width high up the field, which are three of Guerreiro's biggest weaknesses in the LB role.
I do share your concerns regarding Schulz though, playing as WB in a not so dominant Hoffenheim side will be completely different task than playing LB in a Dortmund back four. And they already got burned once in precisely the same context when they signed Toljan.
There's also the fact that he's a very late bloomer: wasn't too impressive at Hertha, barely played at Gladbach and has only been perfoming on a top level at Hoffenheim, from the age of 25.
I haven't watched him enough at Hoffenheim to pass proper judgement, but on paper this smells of Kagawa or Mkhitaryan transfers. A player who has found the (near) perfect context to unlock his full potential moving into a fairly different setting and everyone asking themselves afterwards why he can't replicate his previous performances.
BTW Kicker also report Hazard as all but done for this summer, for a fee similar to Schulz's ("below €30m") and along with other media that Dortmund are optimistic regarding the signing of Brandt, though they also speculate that (and Brandt's most recent statements indeed hint at this as well) his future depends on whether or not Leverkusen make it into top 4. Which, given that their competition faces Bayern and Dortmund, while they only have to deal with Hertha, seems quite likely.
@do.ob I mentioned Guerreiro because he and Schulz are similar in my opinion so if Guerreiro isn't deemed good enough or suitable enough to play at LB then I'm questioning how Schulz will be good enough there, unless it's a 3-5-2. If he does play as a LWB then I would be happy with the signing because I've been impressed with him for Hoffenheim and Germany but as a LB I'm not so sure. I was going to mention how Dortmund failed with Toljan as well
@Swarm I wasn't aware of that rule but wouldn't Bayern also struggle to fulfil that rule especially the 8 local players one? I don't remember them having many youth players in their squad this season other than Alaba. In any case, I can't really comment on how Dortmund will manage that since I haven't really thought about it long enough.
First I want to say that I am not entirely sure about everything I am saying here, I have been researching a bit as I went along. I will try to mark the aspects I a bit unsure of.
I think I may have bigged up the importance of that rule a bit too much anyways, at least the 12 german players rule as that one only applies for the Bundesliga. This can be bypassed quite easily by having players with professional contracts that are registered for the first team but actually play in the reserves. At least this has to be the case since otherwise Dortmund would already not have enough german players (currently at 9 if you go by the squads transfermarkt.de lists). I know that there are a couple of former youth players in the reserves with professional contracts but I haven't taken the time to check who.
Bayern is a different story and they actually fulfill the criteria with ease. Again, the 8 local players are "association trained players" so they have to have come through the youth ranks of any german club. Only 4 out of those 8 have to have come from Bayerns youth in this example. They currently have Alaba, Hummels, Müller and Früchtl, Hoffmann, Shabani who mostly play in the reserves. Additionally to these "club trained players" they have a load more coming from the german youth system (Neue, Ulreich, Süle, Boateng, Kimmich, Goretzka).
All of these regulations become a lot more relevant if you consider CL squads though because the same restrictions apply. You have to have 8 association trained players out of whom 4 need to be club trained. If you cannot fulfill that quota your squad size of 25 will be reduced accordingly. That means if you have literally not association trained players you squad yould be limited to 17 players. That is why it is extremely important for clubs to have players to fill these quotas and here it really doesn't make a lot of sense to just use random youth players because you will be limiting your squad and have to omit players who may have wanted to compete. So clubs that regularly play in the CL should definitely pay attention to this.
Just to do my usual look at Dortmund for this, they currently have 11 association trained players: Toprak, Schmelzer, Oelschlägel, Weigl, Dahoud, Reus, Götze, Bruun-Larsen, Pulisic, Wolf, Philipp
Out of these I believe 3 will definitely stay: Reus, Götze, Wolf
So theoretically there are 5 spots to fill with players staying and players coming in. Raschl and Unbehaun coming from the youth ranks could take these spots but it is actually unnecessary since they could also be registered via the B list (players born on or after 01.01.1998 that have been at the club for over 2 years) as is Bruun-Larsen btw. So seeing this it seems to make a lot of sense for Dortmund to go after the likes of Schulz and Brandt because if the transfers work out well they have these slots filled for a couple of years.
If anyone finds anything wrong with my statements I am happy to be corrected but this is how I interpret Article 44 of the UEFA regulations.
Will be a captivating end to the season on Saturday.
I really hope Frankfurt gets 4th place but they've really thrown it away the last month with 2 points out of a possible 15. Leverkusen has a difficult away game and Gladbach hosts Dortmund, so it's definitely possible but can't see them winning at Bayern unfortunately. Leverkusen might nick it with just a draw at Hertha.
Frankfurt beat Bayern, Dortmund beat Gladbach, Leverkusen beat Schalke.
Dormtund 1, Bayern 2 and Leverkusen 4
But unless you're purely talking about possible defensive question marks regarding Schulz they aren't similar at all. Schulz is a quick and athletic wingback, Guerreiro is a rather weak/lethargic (for lack of a better word) CM.
Well I guess we can agree to disagree about Guerreiro, I don't think Schulz will be much better defensively than Guerreiro for the LB role. For LWB though Schulz would fit better.
Well, at least both cannot be worse than Hakimi defensively.
According to spox and goal.com, Kovac is gone after the season. Van Bommel and Ten Hag hot candidates for the seat
The club has denied it
I hope Frankfurt and Leipzig smash us in the remaining games to seal Kovacs fate
Spoken like a true supporter.
The reason this season is so close is because second placed team will have 10 (or 13) more points this season than they had in the previous one. If Kovac wins a double crown with a retirement home team and basically zero signings and then gets the sack, i'm not sure they will be my team of choice in Bundesliga anymore.
I do not know why the decision about Kovac's fate should have to do something with the titles. The team is not a retirement home team - the "first" team that usually plays right now is a good mixture of ages. But I do not see any development on the pitch - everything just got worse to the last season - even if they still are able to win in the Bundesliga. There is no offensive plan apart from individual brillance and the defense cracks whenever the first team is not played (or even then). The positioning and passing got worse. I just cannot see how Kovac (no matter what players will be added) will improve the team - and that should be the goal for the coach of next season.
Bayern haven't been playing great football this year and Kovac certainly has something to do with that. But let's break this down a bit.
The spine of the team in the last era is all but done. Robben and Ribery are done, Muller is a shell of himself, Neuer is having the toughest season of his life, Rafinha is basically done as well.
Bayern is used to walking the league by now, whether it's because of their superiority or the mediocrity of the rest of the league is up for debate. Motivating the players and even the fans is a brutal job.
Kovac is a relativelly young coach, coming from a team that had a diametrically opposite football philosophy and no "Hollywood" factor. You could argue the choice of appointing him in the first place but everything he has done so far is absolutely expected.
Zero of the current rooster is his choice. We praise the likes of Guardiola, Mourinho and even Zidane but the conditions of these guys joining are hundreds of millions worth of signings. We will see if he will be given the chance to form his own team.
Like i already said, this point tally would be comfortable to win the league in the last 4 years. Dortmund was better this year hence the tough finish.
He might not be the right choice for Bayern and he might be a flop despite of all my points. But i really don't see any other manager being a sure thing if put in the same position.
True, but well, that *is* the core of the job, quite literally. You can't do it, you're not the man for the job.
No Bayern team ever has been any coaches "own team". Its not how this works here. Very few exceptions recently.. Van Gaal brought two players of his own choice (both of whom failed), even Pep did get Thiago only as a personal courtesy, but, for example, hey sold Kroos off against his exoressed wishes.
Apart from Kimmich and to an extent Gnabry and Goretzka, the team has stalled if not walked backward in its entirety. We did have coaches in LvG and Pep, where one could observe players improving, sometimes overachieving. Under Kovac, i see them underachieving.
I don't care about young, i wouldn't even care about titles not won. I care about how the team shows up on the pitch, annd this has been a major disappointment all season with all too few exceptions. Over the last year, there were several reports of members of the team expressing their frustration about Kovac's lack of a clear game plan and the way the training is done. This doesn't sound as if some dressing room dramaqueens just hated his guts, to me it looks a lot like they miss being lead by a really good coach, they know what it is like, and this is not it.
Team Wolfsburg here!
Havertz just tied an age-old Bundesliga record for most goals scored as a teenager. He's now at 24 goals (17 this season), an amazing feat for a midfielder.
Brandt, Draxler and Werner all had 13 goals at that time, no one got higher than that in the past 30 years.
Sancho goal spoiled by VAR
At least one can't be sure it was. Given replays we've seen.
Goal stands, good call.
Separate names with a comma.