Conflict in Sudan

The Corinthian

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The fighting that has erupted in the Sudanese capital, Khartoum, and elsewhere in the country is a direct result of a vicious power struggle within the country's military leadership.
The clashes are between the regular army and a paramilitary force called the Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
Who is fighting who in Sudan?
Since the 2021 coup, Sudan has been run by a council of generals, led by the two military men at the centre of this dispute:
  • Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the head of the armed forces and in effect the country's president
  • And his deputy and leader of the RSF, Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, better known as Hemedti.

They have disagreed on the direction the country is going in and the proposed move towards civilian rule.
The main sticking points are plans to include the 100,000-strong RSF into the army, and who would then lead the new force.
Why did the fighting in Sudan start?
The shooting began on 15 April following days of tension as members of the RSF were redeployed around the country in a move that the army saw as a threat.
There had been some hope that talks could resolve the situation but these never happened.
It is disputed who fired the first shot but the fighting swiftly escalated in different parts of the country with more than 400 civilians dying, according to the World Health Organization.
Why have civilians got caught up?
Even though the conflict appears to be around the control of key installations, much of it is happening in urban areas and civilians have become the unwitting victims.
It is not exactly clear where the RSF bases are, but it seems that their fighters moved into densely populated areas.
The Sudanese air force has mounted air strikes in the capital, a city of more than six million people, which is likely to have led to civilian casualties.
Several ceasefires have been announced to allow people to escape the fighting but these have not been observed.
What are the Rapid Support Forces?
The RSF was formed in 2013 and has its origins in the notorious Janjaweed militia that brutally fought rebels in Darfur, where they were accused of ethnic cleansing.
Since then, Gen Dagalo has built a powerful force that has intervened in conflicts in Yemen and Libya. He has also developed economic interests including controlling some of Sudan's gold mines.
The RSF has been accused of human rights abuses, including the massacre of more than 120 protesters in June 2019.
Such a strong force outside the army has been seen as a source of instability in the country.
Why is the military in charge of Sudan?
This fighting is the latest episode in bouts of tension that followed the 2019 ousting of long-serving President Omar al-Bashir, who came to power in a coup in 1989.
There were huge street protests calling for an end to his near-three decade rule and the army mounted a coup to get rid of him.
But civilians continued to campaign for the introduction of democracy.

A joint military-civilian government was then established but that was overthrown in another coup in October 2021, when Gen Burhan took over.
And since then the rivalry between Gen Burhan and Gen Dagalo has intensified.
A framework deal to put power back in the hands of civilians was agreed last December but talks to finalise the details have failed.
What do the two sides want?
Gen Dagalo has said, in a series of tweets, that Gen Burhan's government were "radical Islamists" and that he and the RSF were "fighting for the people of Sudan to ensure the democratic progress for which they have so long yearned".
Many find this message hard to believe, given the brutal track record of the RSF.
Gen Burhan has said he supports the idea of returning to civilian rule, but that he will only hand over power to an elected government.
There are suspicions that both the generals want to hang on to their positions of power, unwilling to losing the wealth and influence that go with them.
What are other countries doing?
There are fears that the fighting could further fragment the country, worsen political turbulence and draw in neighbouring states.
Diplomats, who have played a crucial role in trying to urge a return to civilian rule, have been trying to find a way to get the two generals to talk.
Soon after the fighting began a regional bloc agreed to send three presidents - from Kenya, South Sudan and Djibouti - to Khartoum, but the mission never happened.
The UK, US and EU have all called for a ceasefire and talks to resolve the crisis and many countries are now focused on trying to get their citizens out.
Sudan: Why has fighting broken out there? - BBC News

UK Government is found wanting again as French, Dutch, and Swedish nationals have managed to evacuate their citizens.

Some 4,000 British passport holders in Sudan
There are understood to be around 4,000 British passport holders in Sudan after foreign secretary James Cleverly warned the UK government was "severely limited" in its ability to help British nationals until the conflict ends.
It comes after diplomats and staff in Sudan were evacuated by governments around the world as rival generals battle for a ninth day, with no sign of a truce that had been declared for a major Muslim holiday.
The US and UK have airlifted their diplomats from the capital of Khartoum.
But Sudanese citizens have desperately tried to flee the chaos, with many of them risking dangerous roads to cross the northern border in Egypt.
Fighting has raged in Omdurman, a city across the Nile River from Khartoum, according to residents, despite a hoped-for ceasefire to coincide with the three-day Muslim holiday of Eid al Fitr.
More than 420 people, including 246 civilians, have been killed while over 3,700 have been injured in fighting between the Sudanese armed forces and a powerful paramilitary group known as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
The RSF claimed the armed forces unleashed air strikes on the upscale area of Kafouri, north of Khartoum.

France evacuates 388 people from Sudan
Evacuation operations launched by France are continuing, the French government has said.
In an update this morning, it said two new "rotations" by the French Air and Space Force between the Sudanese capital of Khartoum and Djibouti - which lies around 1,348 km east of Sudan - took place last night.
There was another rotation this morning, the government said, and each had 100 people on board.
France's operations have so far resulted in 388 people being able to leave Sudan, it added.
Evacuees include French nationals as well as "a significant number of citizens of other countries".
"France reiterates its appeal to all parties to stop the fighting and return to political dialogue," the French government said.
 

2cents

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@Jaqen H'ghar is (or was at least up to a couple of years ago) in Sudan, I hope they're OK.
 

golden_blunder

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Hmm I wonder why the U.K. has been found wanting over their ability to evacuate 4000 British passport holders?

I have my own thoughts on that
 

Dr. Dwayne

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Hmm I wonder why the U.K. has been found wanting over their ability to evacuate 4000 British passport holders?

I have my own thoughts on that
It's the same for a lot of countries. Apparently, one French led evacuation saw the aircraft come under fire at the airport, so that's certainly a big concern.
 

golden_blunder

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It's the same for a lot of countries. Apparently, one French led evacuation saw the aircraft come under fire at the airport, so that's certainly a big concern.
I’m skeptical that they are not thinking of ways in which they can stop 4000 Sudanese coming into the country right now.
 

The Corinthian

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I’m skeptical that they are not thinking of ways in which they can stop 4000 Sudanese coming into the country right now.
I mean, we've seen the difference in UK Gov action over the last few years. Afghanistan and Sudanese are on one side and Ukrainians are on another.

I'm surprised Suella hasn't commissioned flights from Sudan to Rwanda for the 4,000 to that end.
 

golden_blunder

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I mean, we've seen the difference in UK Gov action over the last few years. Afghanistan and Sudanese are on one side and Ukrainians are on another.

I'm surprised Suella hasn't commissioned flights from Sudan to Rwanda for the 4,000 to that end.
That actually crossed my mind too
 

Sir Matt

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The RSF are apparently getting support from Haftar in Libya along with Wagner.

It's the same for a lot of countries. Apparently, one French led evacuation saw the aircraft come under fire at the airport, so that's certainly a big concern.
The US has thousands of citizens (16kish) in Sudan, but they're primarily dual-citizens who may not plan on leaving. Outside of the ceasefire period, it would take a military invasion to effectively evacuate the foreign nationals in Sudan.
 

Jaqen H'ghar

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Thanks for tagging me @2cents.
@The Corinthian I was in KSA, but moved back to Sudan 2017

I am currently in Khartoum. Khartoum North district (which is largely under RSF control) to be specific and the situation is very much a shit show. The cease fires are things you only hear about in the news.

So far the situation has been the RSF have the forces on the ground, occupying residential and strategic sites where the army can not use air strikes or engage them without serious collateral damage.

The army's strategy seems to be targeted airstrikes and cutting off their lines of supply.

There was a RSF base less than half a mile from my home, but it's been destroyed by airstikes. The soldiers have resorted to breaking into, looting and occupying homes who's owners have fled.

Civilians and foreigners have been fleeing outside of the country, (mainly by land) or at least outside of the capital.

Two of the three major telecom companies are down. Water supply is down and fuel is impossible to come by. Electricity is a bit better, but blackouts are common. There is an absence of law with looting and armed robbery common.

There is no end in sight to the fighting. I don't see a solution that allows the fighting factions to co exist peacefully, and any agreement they make would be at the expense of transitioning to civilian rule.
 

2cents

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Oh man, you're right in the thick of it. Are you thinking of trying to get out? Please stay safe!
 

calodo2003

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Thanks for tagging me @2cents.
@The Corinthian I was in KSA, but moved back to Sudan 2017

I am currently in Khartoum. Khartoum North district (which is largely under RSF control) to be specific and the situation is very much a shit show. The cease fires are things you only hear about in the news.

So far the situation has been the RSF have the forces on the ground, occupying residential and strategic sites where the army can not use air strikes or engage them without serious collateral damage.

The army's strategy seems to be targeted airstrikes and cutting off their lines of supply.

There was a RSF base less than half a mile from my home, but it's been destroyed by airstikes. The soldiers have resorted to breaking into, looting and occupying homes who's owners have fled.

Civilians and foreigners have been fleeing outside of the country, (mainly by land) or at least outside of the capital.

Two of the three major telecom companies are down. Water supply is down and fuel is impossible to come by. Electricity is a bit better, but blackouts are common. There is an absence of law with looting and armed robbery common.

There is no end in sight to the fighting. I don't see a solution that allows the fighting factions to co exist peacefully, and any agreement they make would be at the expense of transitioning to civilian rule.
Dear god, please stay safe!
 

The Corinthian

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What a desperate situation - hope you and yours are all safe @Jaqen H'ghar. As 2cents mentions - is there any viable route to safety for you and your family?

One of my Sudanese colleagues recently too some time off because she has family out there and some of them are missing. Can’t imagine how horrible that must be.
 

Jaqen H'ghar

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Oh man, you're right in the thick of it. Are you thinking of trying to get out? Please stay safe!
Dear god, please stay safe!
Thanks 2cents and calodo. I'll do my best.
What a desperate situation - hope you and yours are all safe @Jaqen H'ghar. As 2cents mentions - is there any viable route to safety for you and your family?

One of my Sudanese colleagues recently too some time off because she has family out there and some of them are missing. Can’t imagine how horrible that must be.
Thanks mate. Fortunately my wife and kids were already living abroad, and I was already planning to leave before all this. It is a bit more complicated now with this situation and with family here who I can't leave behind and are unable to leave at this time.
 

VorZakone

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Iran is supporting the Sudanese government against the RSF. The latter is supported by the UAE.

Iranian Drones Become Latest Proxy Tool in Sudan’s Civil War

 

Idxomer

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Good thread about the UAE's involvement there.
 

VorZakone

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April 10 (Reuters) - A year into Sudan's civil war, Iranian-made armed drones have helped the army turn the tide of the conflict, halting the progress of the rival paramilitary Rapid Support Force and regaining territory around the capital, a senior army source told Reuters.