Bidens approval numbers are horrifically low, the concern isn’t about people outside Trumps base voting for him, it’s about them not turning up because there’s absolutely nothing inspiring about Biden.
He should not be the nominee.
Donald Trump The First - Indicted The Fourth
- Thread starter Pexbo
- Start date
He should not be the nominee.
This election is going to make great television tbh.
Agree. Biden is too old and seems not fit for the tasks. However, Trump has similar blackouts. Calling his "friend" Organ the president of Turkey.
I hope enough people outside of Trump's base just go to vote to prevent a possibly disastrous 2nd Trump presidency.
It should be ABT (all but Trump).
Of course they will. They did in 2016 and 2020.
In 2016 Hilary was extremely unpopular with many voters and Trump was more or less a wildcard. Nobody knew how he will eventually act when elected.
In 2020 Trump lost the election pretty clear with over 5 million more votes for Biden.
Since 2020 many things happened like January 6, 70+ civil and federal charges, he radicalized further and his agenda became even more extreme.
I would believe this should scare and drive away many independent and swing voters.
But I'm German and living in the US. So I might be wrong.
The difference in votes between Biden and Trump was 4.45% of the total vote. The difference in votes between Clinton and Trump was 2.1% of the total vote. That is a 2.35% swing. Electorally it is very meaningful because Biden won a bunch of states that Clinton lost and therefore won the election, but in absolute terms it was not a massive repudiation of Trump by any stretch of the imagination.
Trump has never been as popular as his cultists would like him to be. But the inverse is also not true: he's just not a widely unacceptable figure.
Indies didn't vote for Trump in 2020.
Correct: 43% of independents voted for Trump. I think that qualifies as "many independents" voting for Trump.
To be fair, America runs around the world playing world police, deciding that their capitalism needs to be installed everywhere, overthrowing and challenging shit, regardless of bloodshed.
And Most will freely admit that they’d use a time travel machine to murder Hitler before he got his Fuhrer on.
So Suggesting that one of the greatest threats to global stability is a sensible target for assassination isn’t outside of the realms of sensible, if you use Americas rules.
I suppose the only reason they have not done it already is because it would make him a martyr for the MAGA-crowd and risk a civil war?
Well, that and the fact it’s utterly insane. I wasn’t advocating for it.
There wouldn't be a civil war.
The guy is 78 years old. If they really would want, they can just let him have an heart attack....
That's actually very significant Anna encouraging, if you aren't a Trump supporter.
As I wrote in 2016 nobody really knew how a Trump presidency would look like.
In 2020 people knew and more swing and independent voters switched into the democrat camp. Not because they support Biden but they wanted to prevent Trump.
In 2024 Trump even looks more radical and unhinged. So my hope is that even more of independent and swing voters will vote for the democrats just to prevent another 4 years of Trump. Another hope is that many moderate republican voters will not vote or even switch as they don't agree with some of Trump's radical policies, like import taxes and leaving NATO.
I don't advocate it either but I'm pretty scared of a world in which Trump, Putin and Xi are in charge of the 3 military super powers.
If today news reported the 3 passed away, I wouldn't shed a tear to be honest.
Agreed. I mean, he's got an excellent chance of winning but if I was a betting man I'd put my money on Biden exactly for those reasons you are outlining there. Trump also got a few legal hurdles to clear before November, but I'm not all that hopeful on those.
Either way, 8-9 months is a long time in politics. We'll have a clearer picture over the summer, I guess.
I’d have to go to the shop, we’ve only got one bottle of champagne in.
A lot of populist politicians that get elected after drumming up a huge fanbase, lose popularity after being in power, failing to live up to many of their fantasy / hot air promises (or at least meet their full targets), and actually being front and centre of the establishment, after previously being outsiders.
At a UK level, many of the Farage cultists would turn on him if he actually was part of a government, let’s say as the Home Secretary overseeing immigration amongst other things.
The fact that Trump largely maintained, or even added to / increased his support base after being president for 4 years, was a depressing departure from the norm.
At a UK level, many of the Farage cultists would turn on him if he actually was part of a government, let’s say as the Home Secretary overseeing immigration amongst other things.
The fact that Trump largely maintained, or even added to / increased his support base after being president for 4 years, was a depressing departure from the norm.
It'll be a turnout question for Biden. I think Trump will get fewer votes than in the last election - little I've seen convinces me that he's more popular than a few years ago.
Pew Research don't just ask the 'affiliated' party q - where about a third of voters claim to be independent but also a 'support or lean towards' (dem/gop) and there only 7% don't lean one way or the other. I think that group is kind of over-egged to be honest, I struggle to imagine who those people really are.
If Biden can get near the votes he did last time, he'll win. So if he's not compelling enough (and he's obviously not) to get people excited, the dems have to do the inverse, and run on anti-Trump and pro-abortion - two topics that are extremely popular. Their best scenario would be for Biden to basically be a background item to the main election messaging.
As others have said, I honestly thought we were past this on January 7th, but I'd over-estimated the MAGA base's intellect and under-estimated the GOPs cynicism and frankly, insanity. I really wonder if McConnell could have that impeachment vote again, if he wouldn't get it done.
I really think so. I genuinely thought Trump was politically toast after J6 - especially when people like Graham scolded him on the floor. But yes, the stupidity of the MAGA base combined with the power hunger from GOP clearly overrules common sense. Which we kind of already knew.
I would be having the biggest party of my life.
Eh? There's nothing wrong with what they said, it's all right there.Get over yourself
Only if you channel hop
That's another thing that puzzles me. How can it take so long to take him to court so he finally takes responsibility for all the mess he caused with his lies and conspiracy theories. January 6th wasn't just a MAGA party that got out of control but several people died in both sides. There are tons of evidence that trump encouraged the crowd to go the capitol and when it escalated did nothing to stop first.
Or his recorded phone call to try to overturn the election in Georgia.
For an European absolutely mind boggling that he gets away with all this
Honestly I would be happier about the triple disappearance of these lunatics than another triple for Bayern.I would be having the biggest party of my life.
I know it'd be splitting hairs but I think we all knew how he'd eventually act when elected.
Well the dalai lama freely admitted he'd shoot Hitler in the kneecaps. Im pretty sure he would admit to decapitating Trump with a chainsaw.
Let's pray there are still enough mentally healthy voters in the US that will prevent the world from another disaster.
One nutcase in Moscow is enough no need of another nutter in the White House
In Germany Trump wouldn't even get 3% of the votes.
How much do the AfD get?
Also relying on mentally healthy voters in the US makes my blood run cold.
Right wing nutjobs and frankly Nazis all the same, but they have to wear a more measured mask (most of the time) in Germany. They're nowhere close to Trump's rhetoric, at least out in the open
In the polls they are around 20%. They don't stand a chance to be part of Abby government.
I don't think you can compare Germany with the US. The US economy is strong and firing out of all cylinders.
Germany's GDP is shrinking, the country is in a technical recession. Our industry isn't competitive anymore. Energy prices are 4x higher than in the US.
The 3 parties forming current coalition government (SPD, die Gründen and FDP) are at odds how to bring the country back on track. SPD und die Grünen want higher taxes and more debt while the liberals insist to keep the debt ceiling and no higher taxes. Lots of infighting and they can't come up with policies that actually work. So many are frustrated and with the mainstream parties and vote out of protest for the afd. The moment the economy will recover the Afd will be back to 10% or lower.
Trump in US is totally different beast. To me it looks like many of his voters aren't just voters but actually devoted fans. If criticize Trump his supporters take it personal and react like you have criticized themselves. I'm living in Angeles and there is a big US ex military expat community and they all love Trump. Totally resistent to even the most obvious arguments.
It's like a cult to me, more like supporting your favorite football team.
It is a cult, some dude near me has a Trump 2024 flag proudly outside his house on the Staffs/Cheshire border
Yup. A cult that is assisted by all GOP. Right wing media mostly. But even the more mainstream publications focus on stupid things like "gaffes" and Biden's age when trump is only a few years younger and way fatter, wears makeup and is literally orange. In efforts to seem "fair" or both sides everything. That penetrates. And it allows the uninformed to come away with "all the same" or "nothing will change"
That’s just not true.
Do you have any actual polls?
Some German tourists told me these numbers where mentioned in a recent talk show.
I googled it but can't find the source. I only found a poll from Newsweek briefly bevor the election in 2020. Around 8% Germans would have voted for Trump. Not many either
They haven't been exposed to his (unfiltered) propaganda to the same extent and there are still many who wish for a "German Trump". Right wing populism is pretty worrying here as well, even if we're relatively lucky in comparison to other European countries or even GB/US. That being said, education, media and political system in the US definitely sucks.
This is exactly right and extremely problematic.
Trump is the Man City of American Politics
He can do and say as he pleases and not have to worry about consequences by just obfuscating issues at every turn
He'll never suffer any meaningful material punishment that effects his own goals.
.... even when every fecker knows he's a total conman he will continue to operate uninhibited and will become the next president. Just watch
He can do and say as he pleases and not have to worry about consequences by just obfuscating issues at every turn
He'll never suffer any meaningful material punishment that effects his own goals.
.... even when every fecker knows he's a total conman he will continue to operate uninhibited and will become the next president. Just watch
As someone point out here, Trump is a cult and its followers resembles and behave more like a football hooligan. Doesn't matter if one of your player punch an opposition player, or cheats on the wife or pees in the middle of the stadium.
Somewhat it reminds me when I visited Venezuela and when I was speaking to people they were supporters of Chavez or a supporter of Capriles (the main opposition party guy). And it didn't matter what any of them did.
In the end, Trumpism is quashing independents. And the next GOP representative will be the same
Trump might not win in 2024. But as long as he is alive, he will keep being the nominee of GOP and with all the McDonalds preservatives flowing through his veins, he might last 20 years more. At least next year or Biden or Trump will not be in the ballot
Somewhat it reminds me when I visited Venezuela and when I was speaking to people they were supporters of Chavez or a supporter of Capriles (the main opposition party guy). And it didn't matter what any of them did.
In the end, Trumpism is quashing independents. And the next GOP representative will be the same
Trump might not win in 2024. But as long as he is alive, he will keep being the nominee of GOP and with all the McDonalds preservatives flowing through his veins, he might last 20 years more. At least next year or Biden or Trump will not be in the ballot