I've been messing around with some models again and I've picked out a game tomorrow, Rio Ave v Tondela Over 2.5 @ 2.07 (B365) as fantastic value. My model has the true odds at around 1.66.
Football & Sports Betting Thread 2021/2022
- Thread starter Berbaclass
- Start date
Why do you think its good value? It doesnt look like they score much goals per game.
Does the model account for cup games with weird squads?
No not really. Taken into the account the data from the last 20 matches all comps.
My model says the actual price should be 1.66 based on both teams goalscoring records
I'm in regardless! Wooo
Betting on under 1.5 goals per game in the AFCON is proving pretty profitable so far. Only 1 game out of 9 with over 1.5 goals. Hopefully this tip might mean the tournament livens up.
StatisticSports or Betballers. Will probably have been StatisticSports I posted. I know the owners of both so will ask if either can do a discount code.
Been betting unders too. It’s 100% positive edge long term to bet unders every game, the heat + humidity, pitches and lack of quality make 3 goals a massive stretch in the first 2 group games. With the weather no team is trying to score a 2nd goal once they take the lead (bar Nigeria) they’re all just managing the game. Will bet it again tomorrow, just been taking unders Goal lines. Ivory is the one that can lose tomorrow as both teams can score.
Also on Algeria outright, they’re the best team in the comp despite today’s performance. Baghdad should start from now on, manager just picked a bad starting 11. Egypt are overrated, Salah is double marked every game but they still pass to him. Senegal don’t play well as a team, have never really seen them have a good performance. Nigeria are a bit of an unknown with a new manager, looked good today, probably a dark horse. Morocco manager hurt their chances by not calling up Ziyech, without him they lack any cutting edge. Cameroon aren’t very good, they have the home advantage though. Don’t see them winning it unless the refs/var fixes it, which is less likely without full capacity stadiums. Ivory Coast I’m not really sure about. They’re pretty good at getting results but when things go against them their attitude is pretty bad. Not too sure how they’ll do.
Hoping Algeria find form as competition goes on, really big fan of how they play and how they set up with creative players feeding Baghdad. He’s just a pure poacher and stat padder. They’re good at breaking teams down and playing on the counter. Majority of the teams in the competition are unable to break teams down. I think 3/1 is probably fair for them.
Yeah I had a flutter on Algeria at 9/2 before the tournament started. Tempted to also put something on Nigeria but surely they have someone better than Awoniyi to play down the middle. The difference in quality between him and Iheanacho was stark.
I'm just a bit peeved I've not put larger sums on the under 1.5 goals accy the last two gamedays! Will probably come unstuck today with Ivory Coast game.
I've been thinking the same thing but going for 2.5 as i'm too much of a coward to do 1.5.
I've subjected myself to watching quite a bit of the games so far and most of the nations are too scared to lose the opening games to look like scoring! And then if they do attack the quality is very rarely there, even the favourites Algeria were poor in the final third yesterday. I'm not sure whether I hope it picks up in the 2nd round of games to make the viewing more interesting or not... although I suspect a lot of the nations will still be playing conservatively to give themselves a chance of qualifying on the final day as the 4 best 3rd place finishers also make it through to the last 16.
Apart from the opening match there's been hardly any fans there and games almost feel like friendlies at the moment. But as you say when we get to round 2 or 3 teams that are in danger of going out will hopefully go for it and make it more exciting. I think i saw someone say in the AFCON thread that fans won't travel for the groups but will for the knockouts because of A) Covid and B) as a fan would you rather travel to Cameroon to watch your country play Comoros in the group or Ivory Coast in the knockout.
Another round one Afcon thriller, under 2.0 goals treble is good so far...
edit: heroic performances from Mali goalie and the ref
edit: heroic performances from Mali goalie and the ref
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Blow up ref!
edit: posted this at 60 mins, another nice unders treble
edit: posted this at 60 mins, another nice unders treble
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Fecking 0-0
CloseFecking 0-0
is the thread curse back?Afcon unders 3/3 again. I think both won’t go over 2.5 tomorrow, I’ve staked under 2.25 and under 2. Cameroon will win 1/2-0 I think. Once they take lead they’ll manage the scoreline in the heat. Might get a 2nd on the counter. Shouldn’t concede.
Burkina game should be tight, Cape Verde will play for the draw knowing it guarantees them going through. Can see it being 0-0, Burkina probably wouldn’t be upset with a draw and bank on beating Ethiopia last game.
Burkina game should be tight, Cape Verde will play for the draw knowing it guarantees them going through. Can see it being 0-0, Burkina probably wouldn’t be upset with a draw and bank on beating Ethiopia last game.
Under 1.5 in Cape-Burkina is odds-on in places Not sure I've seen that before
Not sure I've seen that beforeS. Sanders vs A. Sabalenka. It is 4.50 for Sanders. Sabalenka is #2, but she is in very poor form and had huge meltdown few days ago and even started serving underarm. I think it worth to put few quids.
I'm on Liverpool v Arsenal BTTS & Over 2.5 @ 2.0
Liverpool is weaker without Mane, Salah, Keita etc. and Arsenal will want a reaction tonight after the Forest game, I assume Arteta is also desperate to win this as it's their best chance to win something this year.
Liverpool is weaker without Mane, Salah, Keita etc. and Arsenal will want a reaction tonight after the Forest game, I assume Arteta is also desperate to win this as it's their best chance to win something this year.
I presume you'd recommend statistic sports over betballers? If so I'd appreciate if you could ask about a discount code. Thanks.
1/2. Need to skip Cameroon games, crowd pushing them on for goals, only team who have went for more. Even at 3-1 Up they were taking quick goal kicks. Think some teams will start to get more used to the heat now too.
Should have bet 0-0 after this
2.20 Punchestown - Bob Olinger 8/15 should win.
Get in there, returned 1/2
Algeria outright looks lost, probably not going to get out of their group. One of the biggest upsets I've ever seen in group football. Unexplainable too, they won arab cup last month against way better sides with only their local players really. Will need to beat Ivory Coast next game to go through, which I would have said they would manage pre tournament but really under-performed so far. The frustrating thing is that called the other sides correct, Senegal and Egypt both very underwhelming too. Nigeria the only team that have impressed me so far. Hopefully Algeria can beat Ivory and then improve for the KO's, not optimistic though.
Got to be the tropical conditions and pitches behind Algeria's poor performances surely? Otherwise inexplicable. Feels like Germany 2018 WC
That’s the only real reasons I can come up. They’re the best passing side in Africa and technical but even the poor pitches are no excuse for how bad they’ve been. It does feel very similar to Germany. Thankfully there’s still hope with the Ivory game. The conditions haven’t been good for Algeria but they should be beating at least one of Sierra/EQ every single time.
Won 1st set. Then got 3:1 lead in second. Made unforced errors in breakpoint for 4:1. And after that collapsed.
Anyone else feel the draw in the Morocco v Gabon game is a decent bet as it suits both teams?
Dortmund -1,5 @1.95 is great value imo. Very strong XI starting
Bet this also. Feck off Dortmund
Yeah what a shambles performance that was. Thought it was a really good bet when I saw the starting XI.
Same here. Had them also just to win in a treble with Juve and Vitesse which they ruined. So sloppy and awful in possession. Tried to be way too clever.
Scott Brown was 6/4 tonight to be carded, I did it literally just before kick off so didn’t have time to post, thought was a cracking bet, didn’t know he had been booked either until I looked at my balance on my account, must’ve went to toilet but got a nice surprise.
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Montpellier to beat Troyes @ 1.8
Fancy both Brentford and United to score in the second half 5/2
Just backed over 1.5 at 11/10, United can't be this bad for the next 45
Edit - Happy with that
Just backed over 1.5 at 11/10, United can't be this bad for the next 45
Edit - Happy with that
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I like Colorados chances tonight against Anaheim. Reg @1.60 and 1,5 @1.90
One for tomorrow is
Skelleftea -1.5 @1.80
Over 5.5 @1.85
Timra just had a covid outbreak and Skelleftea is red hot atm. Should be an easy win
One for tomorrow is
Skelleftea -1.5 @1.80
Over 5.5 @1.85
Timra just had a covid outbreak and Skelleftea is red hot atm. Should be an easy win